CADJPY
CHFJPY
NZDJPY
Commentary - Last week, we wrote that, “potential reversal points above 112.54 are the 100% extension of 103.38-111.30/106.50 at 114.42 and the 78.6% at 115.03. The CADJPY has skyrocketed to above 113.00 and we expect a top and reversal at one of the mentioned objectives; 114.42 or 115.03.” The CADJPY rallied to 116.04 last week but has backed off and currently trades below 115.00. There is no change to the outlook for a top and reversal near current levels. 118.20 is critical to the bear case.
Strategy - Bearish, against 118.20, target below 103.38
Commentary - We wrote last week to look for “a terminal thrust towards the 61.8% of 101.85-92.15 at 98.14 before the downtrend resumes. The 78.6% at 99.77 is also a possible reversal point. 99.77 seems more probable as that level is also the 100% extension of 92.15-97.21/94.67.” The CHFJPY rally has stalled near the 61.8% of 101.84-92.15 at 98.14 and may be rolling over since it is possible to count 5 waves higher from 94.90. Coming under 97.32 would be the first sign that a top is in place.
Strategy - Move to flat, from bullish
Commentary - The count is tracking well so continue to favor the upside for at least a rally through 85.98 and possibly a test of 87.53 or 88.77. The form of the NZDJPY is clear and suggests that one more push will lead to a top and reversal near one of the mentioned levels. 82.94 should remain intact.
Strategy - Remain bullish, move risk to 82.94 (from 80.40), target 87.50/88.77 (then look to flip)
Written by Jamie Saettele, Technical Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com