Jumping on the badwagon?

In hindsight, I’m not sure thia was a good trade. I would rather have waited for a reversal but all the daily, and 4 hourly indicators are signalling a sell. There is a lot of bearish movement in the market today, so I jump on the bandwagon of the bearish candle at 139.23 with a stop at the top S&R line (which has been broken) at 140.01.

Or I could have gone long on the 2nd bullish candle. If I had done that would you set the stop loss at the low of that bullish candle or the 0.0 fib point?

If you are going to trade the GJ, you have to learn patience.

You essentially shorted the bottom of the of the drop starting from 143.30 (thats a 400 pip drop).

If you are going to use the 4hr chart and daily charts to place your trades, then you need to use a wide SL and by looking at the 4 hr, stochs are showing me buy.

It may very well continue lower (I actually think it might) but not today.

Today is the last friday of the month, so you can be there was profit taking all day and will continue.

So in my opinion, that was a bad trade, but learn from it. A retrace on the GJ is typically 100-150 pips if not more. When ranging, it can bounce around 40-50 pips like nothing.


Yeah, I’m going to try something different as I was using M30 for that and it jumps about far too much for me.
I’m going to use Daily for trends and long range bets and 4hr/1hr for intraday.
I guess I shorted at that point because I thought it would go further but in hindsight a bad choice as it was neither at the top or bottom of this particular run. Patience lesson - thank you :slight_smile:

Is Friday always a bad day to trade?

The 4hr stochs say buy, the daily says sell.

4hr is too long for intraday trading, you should be trading of the 15m/30m/1hr in my opinion.

No Fridays are okay to trade, just lower volume than the rest of the week. Though the last Friday of the month can be a day where there is profit taking, as in the GJ 145.00 was a distribution level earlier in the week, and it has been selling off since. This can be attributed to hedge funds, institutions… etc… booking profits in.

If you look at the chart it is 15min TF and the 50 EMA… It is a very good technique for the GJ and GU.

Demo trade it and you will see.

Cheers

And you use the candles or an indicator to decide direction?
Or just when you get an indicator and the candles are on/around the EMA50?
It’s a much better view than I’ve been using to date :slight_smile:

The last Friday of every month must be a great time to go long/short depending on how the profits are being taken?
I’m guessing profit isn’t taken weekly? What about on a tax month basis, eg the 4th of every month might be a profit taking day?

Its pretty simple actually:
I use this during the London and NY session

  1. if price is riding along the 50EMA, with no clear direction then I don’t trade with this technique.
  2. if price is trending up or down on the 15 min TF (which should be pretty obvious) then i wait for a candle to touch / pierce the 50 EMA, typically then I drill down to 5 min TF, to optimize my entry and set order. You can call this buying the dips and selling the rallies.
  3. Trade management:
  • at +20 pips move SL to BE
  • I always trade multiple lots, and for the GJ at 50 pips I close off 1/2 the order, move the SL to +10pips for the balance of trade (this might happen on the next candle or two so you have to be diligent).
  1. As price never really goes straight up/down, there’s usually 2-3 GOOD trade opportunities per session (50pips+).
  2. As the NY session closes, don’t place anymore trades and manage the ones (if you still have some open).

I don’t really rely on indicators at all, though I do use them to look for divergence. You will find that price always returns to the 50 EMA, its like a magnet…

So patience is really key, you have to wait for the price to come back to your desired level.

When applied properly, and as you gain familiarity with the pair, you will see just how powerful it is.

Of course this like any other technique is not 100%, so practice good money management. I use 2% risk over 40 pips, so when you make ~250pips (shorted 142.69 closed @140.00 - left another 70 pips on the table:mad:) as i did this morning, tell me what kind of a return is that? Some trades, you’ll reap hundreds of pips others barely 50 and sometimes 0 or a loss.

I can say I get stopped out at BE alot more often than at -40pips.

Try it out, demo it for a month and see what happens.

The fellow who taught this to me (a trading master) named this “the simple account doubler” lol

The last Friday of every month must be a great time to go long/short depending on how the profits are being taken?
I’m guessing profit isn’t taken weekly? What about on a tax month basis, eg the 4th of every month might be a profit taking day?

That is pretty hard to say for certain. Once you learn one trading strategy, then you look to add to your trading knowledge. Begin to learn the subtle nuances of trading, what makes the market work…

Keep in mind the market is continually being manipulated by big money…

My advice is to trade what you see on the charts…

I’ll give it a go - thanks. Just a question - you say you don’t trade when it’s on the EMA yet in your graph you have signalled possible short points right on the EMA. :confused:

So, you close half the trade when you are 50pips in profit? I know there’s a few variations on that also. And you move the other SL to +10 until it gets hit? I might try a trailing stop for this…

Where do you set your SLs? on the EMA?

Yes, that is because the drop started at 143.50, and it was hovering on the daily pivot 142.63, … PA had returned from 142.15, but couldn’t get any higher than 142.90, so more downward pressure was apparent. Also, this area is the begining of the Asian session, and there was no significant retrace, which is a good sign the current trend will continue.

This is something you will begin to recognize the more you focus on this pair.

The GJ tends to drop, retrace, consolidate then drop again or visa versa… I tend to think of 300 pip increments.


SL is 40 pips from entry point.

If it looks like the SL @ +10pips will get hit, i will close it early. I normally put a TP in about 300 pips away, and if price is moving in my favor, I move the SL up every 100 pips or so. The second half of the trade is there to catch a breakout, so I don’t follow it to closely as it need room to bounce around so to speak.

So, if you close half at 50pips, then you’re on a 50:40 reward/risk ratio?
Plus any extras you might get off the other half. 60:40 min.

You’re actually using some pivots and S&R in the method as well…

I don’t really worry about R:R, I don’t particularly believe in it. You can set any R:R you want, doesn’t mean it will get there. I do believe in letting your winners run and closing your losers early, take profit often (why i use 50 pips), remove risk as soon as possible.

And yes I do use pivots and S & R but that is in the ASIAN session or in non trending days. I also use VSA to scalp off the 1 & 5 min TFs. Once you’ve learned different bits of information about trading, its hard to not incorporate them into a trading style. ie… The MACD is shown on my chart for one purpose, to look for hidden / regular divergence.

As a trader, you have to find what works for you, and learn how to trade the different market conditions. After a couple of years of that, you will know all sorts of techniques and combine them to your advantage.

That said, you can almost do this blind in the London/NY session when its trending.

It was also the last friday of the quarter. A lot of the big outfits are reporting to their clients, squaring their books etc

Isn’t the dead area just 2200 to 0000 GMT. Seems to extend a bit further in yours.
And why does the Asian session usually cause a retrace?
I’ll keep an eye out for it in the charts - although I won;t be awake to trade at those times. :slight_smile:

  1. if price is trending up or down on the 15 min TF (which should be pretty obvious) then i wait for a candle to touch / pierce the 50 EMA, typically then I drill down to 5 min TF, to optimize my entry and set order. You can call this buying the dips and selling the rallies.

And how do you know whether you’re going short/long if the price is just hovering around the EMA?
I can see how if it was at the extremes you could guess that it’s heading back to the EMA but if you’re waiting for a candle to touch the EMA then where is it going next in your method?

Hey Cdawn, question about your 50 ema strategy.

In a trending market I can see lots of piercing and bouncing off the 50 EMA, that would make good support/retrace entries.

How do you filiter out the times when it just continues way through the 50 EMA and ends the fifteen minute trend?

Also, do you just look for a 15M trend or do you also look for a higher time frame to be trending as well, before calling the 15M trend a trend?

San Miguel

Isn’t the dead area just 2200 to 0000 GMT. Seems to extend a bit further in yours.
And why does the Asian session usually cause a retrace?
I’ll keep an eye out for it in the charts - although I won;t be awake to trade at those times.

Basically the dead zone starts at the end of the NY session (20:30 GMT) till the open of the Asian session (NewZealand 23:00 GMT)

And how do you know whether you’re going short/long if the price is just hovering around the EMA?
I can see how if it was at the extremes you could guess that it’s heading back to the EMA but if you’re waiting for a candle to touch the EMA then where is it going next in your method?

This is where it is more complicated and not part of the simple 15 min technique. Chart reading is where you find your answer, and I have several different ways to evaluate where I think the price will be headed. And your right, sometimes I will take a chance if PA is more than 200 pips above or below the 50 EMA, I will place a counter trade, especially if it is near the end of the US session, as I mentioned Asia tends to reverse (maybe 70% of the time).

300 pips between each rise/fall? On average.

In a trending market I can see lots of piercing and bouncing off the 50 EMA, that would make good support/retrace entries.

Quote:
Exactly, this is the beauty of this.

By support I can see you would then go long of the EMA. Are you suggesting placing OCO orders either side of the EMA when the PA is at the EMA?
By retrace, what do you mean here, do you have an example? If the price falls back to the EMA, are you suggesting it will retrace the original trend?

Don’t get to hung up on the wording, I presumed Phoneix meant if the price is going lower trending downwards, it will “retrace” to the EMA for entry and then continue lower on its trend.

Yes i look at 300 pips, it may consolidate at some point for a bit, but overall 300. If you look, from last night it dropped about 420 pips in asia, London/US retraced so far about 275…

Doesn’t the NZ session begin at 19:00 GMT? It’s 8am in NZ then…