Wed14Aug2019: G/J Long Trade 1h Chart -1u 
A bit of a late entry. Was busy all day with house chores and missed out on a better entry around 12:30 this avo. Nevertheless if the trade is to work I can still catch a 2.25:1 trade.
I rather trade the Fib 61.8% and Fib 78.6% but after a nice pick up last night, I rather risk 1 unit than missing out…Besides, given that I mainly am only trading G/J I can afford to trade more often.
Wed14Aug19: G/J Long Fib61.8%: S/L @ +2.5unit taken so far; Rest S/L @ +0.25u
Another attempt…
I have to keep in mind that we are also bouncing from a 78.6% of the last downswing, since the G/J has (or is) on a downtrend, I might be swimming against the current here…
16/8/19 Still survived, the bounce. I relocated my s/l just below the 4h swing lows which falls below the 61.8% of the 4h up swing. So we are risking a full 1unit still.
19/8/19 This trade has been at b/e since last friday (forgot to update), reason why I have now (today) entered my EUR/USD Long Trade (see post below)
MON19AUG2019: EUR/USD LONG DAILY/4h/2h Charts
As you know I am mainly trading the GBP/JPY cross currently. But this trade was identified by my son Dimitri. He breezed thru his forex training I gave him a year ago. He is a successful painter and one month old father of Ilia. After a very busy year, he is resume his Demo Trading.
I will be entering this trade on Monday as soon as the market price is right.
The Techs:
Day Chart Hammer at the 78.6% Fib of the last upswing
4h & 2h Bull Engulfing candles
MON19AUG2019: LONG EUR/USD DAY CHART:(S/Out @BE)
As mentioned above, this morning I entered this Long Trade based on the technicals mentioned above
It hasn’t yet moved enough in our favour to move our stop at b/e, so we cant count our eggs yet…
As usual, wait and see…
TUE20AUG2019: I have done further analysis on this trade we entered yesterday. It has now formed an “inverted hammer” on the day chart. We can also see that (although not “textbook”) the EUR/USD has formed what it appears to be a “Gartley 79” or a Gartley with a “D” point at the 786% fibonacci retracement level.
This further confirms my confidence on this trade.
Furthermore, in the next post, we also see that the EUR/JPY downtrend appears to be “exhausted” and this further confirms the probability that the EUR may go higher from here.
So there is still time to enter LONG on the EUR/USD cross since it retraced back to yesterday’s prices after forming a inverted hammer (above post) OR alternatively, some of you may want to also take on this LONG opportunity on the EUR/JPY.
As part of my KISS principle strategy, I am looking to only enter ONE trade at a time and only open a new trade once the first trade is at B/E at the minimum.
In this case, I have the G/J on B/E and still looking as it might hit one of my TPs (I have 3 separate lots on it) and the E/U open trade at 1unit risk.
I am monitoring the G/J closely to take 1 unit profit at least at any time I see signs of turning around so that I am NOT losing with either trade… if that makes sense, making my total risk “0 units”.
So stay tune for my updates as we move along this week.
KISS PRINCIPLE RULE…A REMINDER…: "LESS TRADES, MORE PROFITS"
WED21AUG2019: ADDED TO LONG POSITION AFTER BULL ENGULFING FOLLOWING HAMMER & INVERTED HAMMER ON DAY CHART
Following the hammer at the 78.6% fib retracement of what it appears to be a Gartley 79, the EUR/USD has formed a Inverted HAmmer and now a Bull Engulfing. If there is such a thing as a HIGH PROBABILITY TRADE, well, this is it. For this reason, I have added to this trade today, however the target is under the last high to cash in and be in profits.
I also have taken 1 unit profit on the G/J which is still FREEROLLING.
NOW…THIS IS A GOOD PLACE TO BE, NOW IT IS UP TO US TO MAXIMIZE PROFITS.
So, between the two trades I am risking only 1unit for a nice 15+ units profit targets
Wait and see…
MON26AUG2019 UPDATE: I had a meeting with my son last night were we discussed the EUR/USD trade, he reminded me that “it is best to place your stops at the last swing low/high” … and he is right. I have been far too aggressive lately, taking far too many chances, more than usual. I guess my “punting side” has been taken over my “trading side”…
So, I will be looking at getting back to basics, accepting a lesser R:R in order to have a more “conservative” approach.
As we can see, the same Day Trade would’ve worked out just fine for us if we had place the stop at the “x” swing low…
Point taken…
NOTE: THIS IS A RE-POST OF MY G/H LONG TRADE FROM A FEW POSTS AGO…
Wed14Aug19: G/J Long Fib61.8%: S/L @ +2.5unit taken so far ; Rest S/L @ +0.25u
Another attempt…
I have to keep in mind that we are also bouncing from a 78.6% of the last downswing, since the G/J has (or is) on a downtrend, I might be swimming against the current here…
16/8/19 Still survived, the bounce. I relocated my s/l just below the 4h swing lows which falls below the 61.8% of the 4h up swing. So we are risking a full 1unit still.
FRI23AUG2019 UPDATE: Ok, so the EUR/USD was stopped out prematurely. I still feel it will continue but after so much whiplash earlier on I had decided to move to b/e upon a rally which it happened only to retreat back down. One of the reasons I love the GBP/JPY so much is that our trades don’t take as long to either win or lose!
On the G/J, this trade is my star at the moment. My second TP was hit last night, leaving me with one lot at the moment sitting at +0.25u locked in profits. And so far I have collected 2.5units in profits from the previous lots. I will continue looking for longs, since it is quite obvious that we are now in a confirmed reversal and hopefully in a new longer up trend. My next TP at the moment is sitting at 500pips away from my initial entry. However, I intend to keep moving it up and to keep adding to this trade on fib retracements.
So let’s stay with the bulls for as long as the G/J let us!
CORRECTION: AFTER REVIEWING THE LAST LOWS ON THE 4H CHART, I HAVE RELOCATED MY S/L AT B/E AND NOT AT +0.25UNITS
as mentioned, I intend to stay on this trade and add to it as much as possible so I need to stay with the Daily chart more than the 4h charts…
MON26AUG2019: CLOSING LONG TRADE & REVERSING TO SHORT(?)
The G/J has now formed a Bear Engulfing Day Candle at the 50% Fib retracement. I can’t ignore this, so I will be closing the Long Trade as soon as I can. It currently sits at +0.5units, we’ll see if I can at least get this price.
I am now looking at reversing to Short Position. There is always a chance that this was either a secondary retracement rally of the long term down trend, since the daily chart has not taken out any previous high. In back of my mind I had this thought that the G/J may be heading towards the 124 area were we have a strong Support Level previously formed at the weekly chart.
On the other hand, the G/J has also formed an opposing Weekly Signal: Piercing Pattern candle!
So I will stay on the sidelines for a bit until I can see a clear opportunity to short or see if we get a Day Bull signal after testing the Weekly PP…
MON26AUG2019: TRADE CLOSED TOTAL PROFITS +2.5units
Let’s start with the G/J… Unfortunately I wasnt able to cash in the last 0.5units, today the market gapped down and hit my S/L. But this last lot was already at B/E so no damage there
Now I have re-entered LONG given the Week Piercing Pattern that makes me believe we are in a Trend Reversal, so I am joining the Bull side at the moment.
TRADE G/J: LONG 2H CHART: F79% + HAMMER
NOTE: I still placed my stop on the “agressive side” below the Bull Candles instead of the Last Low (see EUR/USD post update above). Mainly because I started late today and missed a better price. Wait and see…
TUE27AUG2019: G/J TRADE CLOSED AT B/E
**MON26AUG2019: GBP/USD COUNTER TREND SHORT TRADE DIV2 4H CHART: +1u **
I have set up a basket of USD and JPY crosses to complement my GBP/JPY focus trading. The reason is the meeting I had with my son last night (as mentioned above), we discussed my strategy and reasoned that whilst I love trading just the G/J and most of my profits come from it, this doesn’t mean I can not seek for other trades that sound appealing, but keep it under control.
On that note, I will try one more time to “expand my horizon”…for you guys that follow my posts, it is up to you wether you want to only take my G/J trades…
USD BASKET: Based on my analysis of AUD/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD and NZD/USD, I am favouring the BULL SIDE. The AUD is in the process of forming a possible DAY HAMMER. The NZD is forming a BULL wedge/triangle (however I am not an expert on this type of formations ), but the clearest of all signs is in the EUR/USD, which had completed a nice Gartley 79% and formed a “right tip or D point” with a hammer, inverted hammer, bull engulfing candles. This is the trade I should still be in as mentioned earlier. And the GBP/USD has formed a clear Bull Crown and it is in a clear 4h up trend.
So, why on earth I am entering SHORT?! Good question! Because I can’t help myself. It is part of my trading to use the RSI Divergence, although I tried to only use the 3-point, I am just a bit of a “punter”… I believe it should retrace back to one of the fibs, before it continues its up trend…
I am however, working hard on myself to stop entering these type of trades, specially if I am going to expand my horizon, there is no need to keep taking these risks when there will be a lot more opportunities to trade with the current. In short, “due to my focus on G/J I needed to open up my type of entries, so BAD HABITS DIE HARD…”
I recommend to you guys, stay out of this one, and wait for the LONG TRADE opportunity that should come about mid-this week…
wait and see…
TUE27AUG2019: TRADE NOW AT B/E. It moved our way pretty much easy, and it has moved on a 1:1 ratio so now I am happy to make this a freeroll trade. And see if it hits our TP or we b/e
TUE27AUG2019: TRADE CLOSED AT +1UNIT
MON26AUG2019: JPY BASKET: Based on my analysis of the same type of crosses AUD, EUR, GBP, NZD, USD/JPY) most of these are in the process of forming DAY hammers. If they do, I would be favouring the BULL SIDE and seeking for long entries. Day Hammers are pretty much my ultimate favour. I do not recall any losing trades that involved this set up …for me at least…We also have signs of over sold in the Day RSIs…
With the GBP/JPY, I have done just that, as described above.
A couple of print outs as example…
MON26AUG2019: COMMODITIES BASKET
Nothing much happening in my view, except for:
LONG @ Coffee on Day Hammer: Now S/L @0.5u Risk
LONG @ Wheat on Day Hammer S/L now @ Closed @ B/E
and a possible SHORT trade coming up on Gold IF it forms a Day Shooting Star by candle close…
as shown below…
TUE27AUG2019: GOLD SHORT ON DIV3 & SHOOTING STAR
As discussed above…
TUE27AUG2019: EUR/USD 4H CHART LONG TRADE G62 -1u
In the USD basket I have a couple of Day hammers formed by the NZD and AUD crosses, however, both are “counter trend signals” with no other support except the Oversold RSI.
Yet, these are nevertheless “bullish” signs.
The EUR/USD however, has formed a textbook Gartley at the 62% fib retracement. To play it safe, as discussed in previous posts, I am placing my Stop below the 78.6% which is also where the “Left Tip” of last lows of the previous down trend sit. If this time I get stopped out…oh well so be it!
It would only give me a 2:1 if I place the stop where it suppose to be “below the last low” of the down trend, whilst currently I am getting 3:1 or so…
TUE27AUG2019: JPY BASKET: NO ACTION
On the JPY basket, as previously mentioned, I was waiting to see if there were Day Hammers formed, but instead we ended up with a few Piercing Patterns and RSI Divergence.
These are also “Bullish” signs, and if you wish to take the punt, as “I used to…”, then go for it. I am staying out, whilst waiting for a GBP/JPY bull signal on the 4h charts or a Gartley in the AUD, NZD, EUR, USD/JPYs Day Charts.
All of these JPY crosses, are in the process of forming such a reversal, if it happens of course. I have used the AUD/JPY as example, you can see these possible formation happening in all others except the GBP/JPY. I will trade the “D” point if and when they happen either G62 or G79.
But this should happen some time next week I would guess…stay tuned…
TUE27AUG2019: G/J LONG TRADE FIB61.8% RETEST: +0.5u
The 61.8% fib of the last 4h upswing has been retested, as such, I have entered long at the current price levels.
MON02SEP2019: COPPER SHORT LIMIT ORDER DAY CHART FIB62%: +0.5u
I am selling Copper Cash on opening. I have placed a Limit Order on the Day Chart
We are in a Down trend currently, and it retraced to the Fib 61.8% forming a Evening Star to enter short.
Mon4Sep2019: Closed at 0.5u profits
WED4SEP2019: GBP/JPY LONG TRADE DAY CHART HAMMER:
UPDATE AT TUE 10SEP19: S/L @ +2.5u
Going long although is costing us 150pips my target is 300pips. However, there can be better entries on the 30m or 4h charts later on that can be taken. Stop should be however below the day swing low as shown
Happy trading
FRI6SEP2019
It is quite awesome when the market synchronize in such a way that all our trades move in the same profitable direction. After showing a nice hammer in the GBP/JPY I analysed all other JPY & USD crosses in my baskets and most had the same candle signal showing up, the all powerful Day Hammer… So I added to my trades as shown. Today, all are at least on break even whilst some others like the GBPs have locked in profits.
So far, the EUR/USD is the only one that has shown some things of bull exhaustion with a “Bear Harami”. I might take the 1.5u profits out of that one…!
post note: EUR/USD: Closed @ 1.5u profits.
post note: NZD/USD: Closed @ 4u profits
post note: GBP/USD: Closed @ 1u profit
FRI6SEP2019:
Closing Coffee at -0.25u: NOTE: Didn’t get to close coffee yet, and it is still running at plus, will let it play out next week and see how it goes.
Gold: Adding to the trade, now we also have the possiblity of a Week Tweezer Tops, we were just saved by a few points, still short and waiting. Now it has formed a clear Day Bear Engulfing at same level of the Day Shooting Star we used to enter short, this further confirms my believe that we might be about to start a Down Trend. I will continue to move our Target Profit further to ride it if it happens. Same as what I am doing with the current long trades on GBP/JPY, GBP/USD, NZD/USD
FRI6SEP2019: COCOA WK BEAR GARTLEY & DAY BULL GARTLEY?
COCO loves Gartleys… A year ago, on 30Sep2018 week, I identified a Week Bull Gartley “D” point (check it out!) it was a textbook definition which culminated on week commencing 7July2019 with a Week Shooting Star at past resistance level (formed by a wk evening star around 13May2018).
I was waiting and waiting for it, the only mistake I made at the time was that i didnt maximise my profits. My plan at the time was to keep adding to my Weekly Based Analysis Trade (gartley) using the dips on the day chart, which was again textbook Fibs 618/786, but I didn’t stuck to my plan.
This time, I may have a second chance!
In my opinion we have TWO Gartleys in the forming with Coco.
On the WEEKLY CHART, we have a BEAR GARTLEY, which is currently at point “A”. According to our Gartley Rules we enter on the “D” point. However, this is a Weekly Timeframe which means that there is opportunity to trade almost each leg: W-X, X-A, A-D, D-Extension. This takes us to the next… (NOTE: the Weekly “W” Point was the “D” point of the Bull Gartley I am referring to that I traded at the time a year ago)
On the DAY CHART, we have what I believe a Bull Gartley forming. IF and only IF I am right, we should be able to enter at the Day Gartley “D” point around the 618-786 and ride the A-D leg of the Weekly Bear Gartley. Once we hit the “D” Point in the latter, we will reverse to Short…
Now, it is a matter of wait and see… and this is the hardest part…
Of course, for those of you that love action, Coco has formed a DAY Bear Engulfing Candle at the 38.2% fib retracement of the last down swing, and if my analysis is correct, then it should go down from here to the opposite 618 or 786 fib. HOWEVER, in my view there is a chance for only 1:1 R:R which as we all know, is NOT good business…
The GBP/JPY trades and others I have active, is good enough for now to keep me entertained and busy until these Coco GArtleys come to play… *(if they do of course).
MON09SEP2019: COPPER SHORT TRADE DAY CHART: S/O -1u
On a Tweezer Top / Harami bear candle pattern at a Day Resistance Level, I have entered SHORT ON COPPER. Target is above the 61.8% of the last UpSwing (as shown).
Also, this current juncture appears to be point “A” of a W-X-A-D Leg of a possible Bull Gartley
If this trade plays out, this means 2.5:1 R:R
Happy trading!
