Kiss principle trading

WED4DEC19 TRADES UPDATE:
AUD/USD: S/L @ B/E
COFFEE: S/O @ -1u : Quitting on this one until the current Week Bull Gartley hits its 127-168 ext
COPPER: CLOSED @+2.0u
EUR/USD: S/L @ B/E

Risk: 0%
PP: +4u

THU5DEC19: SOYBEAN LONG TRADE: FIB79 “A-D” GARTLEY LEG: S/O +1u :slight_smile:
Tomorrow, upon closing of the current day candle, I will be going long with Soybean IF the current candle forms a Bull Engulfing signal (it needs to close as it is currently showing or higher, basically)

This appears to be point “A” of a Bear Gartley in formation, hence we would be trading the “A-D” leg. This point coincides with RSI Oversold PLUS Fib 78.6% of the upswing (as shown)

Happy trading

MON9DEC2019: S/L @ B/E
I forgot to update this i think. we had the chance to move to B/E late last week

THU5DEC19 TRADES UPDATE:
AUD/USD: CLOSED @ +2.5u
SOYBEAN: S/L @ 1u risk
EUR/USD: S/L @ B/E

Risk: 2%
Profits: +2.5u

FRI06DEC19: COCO LONG TRADE: FIB79 -1u :frowning:
On the Day, 4h and 2h charts we have bull candle signals, a 786 fib retracement coupled with oversold RSI in the day chart.
I have placed an entry order as close to the market price as possible, in case I am not around the computer when the coco opens at 20:00 australia time

Happy trading

MON9DEC2019: GBP/JPY SHORT TRADE: DIV -1u :frowning:
On Day Divergence and bear Engulfing I am jumping in on this one. It might still be a bit early, but I love the G/J and the R:R is a lot better than the short price favourites I have been backing lately :slight_smile:

luckily I managed to move the stop a bit far away with GJ to stay on the trade. I had noticed the possibility of the GJ to move closer to previous Day Support turned resistance…

MON9DEC2019: EUR/USD SHORT TRADE: FIB62 -1u :frowning:
On a Fib61.8% plus Bear Engulfing, riding a possible “A-D79” leg of a Bull Gartley.

WED11DEC2019: AUD/USD LONG TRADE FIB62 4H: +2u :slight_smile:
Trying the intraday charts once more, with a 4h hammer at the Fib62% retracement of the larger upswing. Only going for a 2:1 r:r

Oops I had a typo here, this was a AUD/USD long trade not EUR/USD…

FRI13DEC19: AUD/USD SHORT TRADE 2H CHART: +2.5U:slight_smile:
I am taking a punt here, the 4h bear candle has not formed yet, neither has the 2h engulfing bear candle that would give this trade higher probability. However, I am going for 2.5:1 with just a 127 resistance, RSI Div plus a Bear Harami…

TUE17DEC19: EUR/USD SHORT: S/O 0u :blush:

TUE 24/12/19: S/L@B/E

SAT28DEC19: This one was a silly one! A rookie mistake not to read the signs, lock in some profits.
The EUR/USD has been on a “Bull Gartley” for quite some time, it hasn’t gone straight from the “D62” point to its fib 127/1618 extension, but rather has been doing mini-waves. The short was good, since I had left the Gartley trade prematurely a while ago, but at least to secure some profits and maintain the “Bull bias”… Another item in my “Improve List for 2020”…

TUE17DEC19: NZD/USD SHORT: S/O -1u :frowning:

GIVEN THE NZD/USD MORE ROOM…
I wasn’t that convinced on placing my S/L below the Doji High, so I gave the NZD/USD more room. Sorry that I do not have the time to keep updating every change in my posts, as I might have mentioned we are in the process of selling our house and a lot of personal matters that require our attention distracts me from my Daily Trading routine to top that off, a recent back injury that doesn’t allow me to spend much time sitting in front of my laptop. I have to keep it to the bare minimum! :frowning:

THU19DEC19: SOYBEAN CASH SHORT
28/12/19Reduced Trade Size -0.5u
28/12/19Open: 1 full unit risk

On what appears to be a Gartley “D79” (hitting the 78.6% fib retracement). We have a Harami on the day chart with Divergence on the 4h and a couple of hanging man candles.

Now wait and see…

TUE24DEC19 UPDATE: Also still surviving, it is a good practice to place our stop on the last swing high or low, rather than above the candles. Although it costs us more in points or pips, but it has saved me from getting stopped out prematurely many times over when I actually stuck to this rule. So I hope 2020 will prove to be a year where I stick to my rules which have proven me to be the profitable way of trading for me…

SAT28DEC19: I reduced my position simply for “risk management” when I relocated my Stop above the Last Swing High, it increased my open risk %. So I took a -0.5u loss. Not a right way of course, but I learnt the lesson, or at least I think I did, of “placing my stops at the Swing High/Low and not the candle signals high/low”… Hope to improve on this in 2020!

THU19DEC19: USD/JPY SHORT

TUE24DEC19: UPDATE: Still surviving with a positive paper profits

SAT28DEC19: No change.

TUE24DEC19: COCO DAY LONG TRADE (Pos GARTLEY legs): S/L@B/E
Well, I missed out on a nice Day Divergence for a short trade with Coco…which marked what appear to be the beginning of a possible Bear Gartley. The DIV point at the top *(mark with a “S” for sell) would’ve been the “X” of the W-X-A-D legs of a Gartley…bummer! Well we are pros so no point on crying over spill milk.

So tonight, I will go long on this commodity, if this is indeed the point “A” of the gartley legs. As you might notice, had I taken the two previous hammers as signals for this possible “A” point both trades wouldve been losses. So we take the good with the bad…

SAT28DEC19: Going strong and heading towards the possible “D62 or D79” I will take my profits at the 62% fib and wait for a candle confirmation to go short.

TUE24DEC19: AUD/USD SHORT TRADE 4H: -1u:frowning:

WED01JAN20 UPDATE: USD/JPY SHORT: Closed @ +6.7u :slight_smile:
Just locked in 2units on this trade. Stop is now above the 618% of the latest 4h downswing. Trying to give this trade room to move whilst keeping my overall risk at a plus (Soybean is looking more and more glooming, whilst Coco is still looking to head towards its “D” point)

THU3JAN20: P/T: +3.3u by reducing trade size. Now also PROF LOCKED IN +1.8u

Finally a nice profit to risk ratio. So far I have secured and/or collected 5.1units for 1unit risk or 5.1:1 R:R ratio. :slight_smile: The beauty of this one is that the USD/JPY has been a bit of a hard one to catch for me.

FRI03JAN20: REDUCED TRADE. P/T +2u

T01: FRI3JAN20: COPPER SHORT TRADE: S/O @ B/E

On Day Divergence, Bear Engulfing at Fib Extensions Resistance: I had been waiting for the market to retrace a bit to allow for a cheaper entry.

MON06JAN20 UPDATE: Trade is now @ B/E

TUE07JAN20 UPDATE: Although I am happy taking +2.5u on what I considered a “bonus trade” with T02 AUD/USD Short Trade, when analysing my exit, I can see that there was possibly a bit more profits to take, possibly. Simply based on the Weekly Chart (at the bottom of this post). The AU had hit a 127 AND 78.6% fib extension/retracement juncture, being this a “gartley” (the other one I had mentioned in some of my previous posts), a fib juncture like this is quite powerful specially when the RSI is also near its peaks (in this case the weekly RSI was at about 63%). Furtheremore, we had a “textbook Harami” to boot. All in all, combine the above with my 2020 Strategy to “stay in a day trade until there is a reverse trade available” we could have stayed on this trade. However, I am only using this example to “learn from it”. Like I mentioned in my other forum posts “Trading the Gartley -ABC”, my key weakness last year was “not maximising my profits”. So let’s do this better in 2020.

Anyway, coming back to Copper, after all my lecture above, I need to put my money where my mouth is, as such, I have removed my Copper TP (seen below), based on a Week Evening Star at a 61.8% & 38.2% fib retracements with a 67% RSI. Therefore, I am staying on this one until we see a Day Signal signal to either reverse the trade or reduce it. It is however, outside my trading parameters to stay on a trade based on a Weekly Chart, this means usually that we will miss on a few Day Swing trades and that is more for position traders not Swing Trader (like myself).
I forgot to mention, I am also looking at the 254 area where the 78.6% of the last week upswing sits which also is a past resistance area.

Wait and see…

FRI10JAN20 UPDATE: T01 COPPER S/O @B/E
Unfortunately I hesitated to give this trade a bit of room by placing my stop above the 4h chart last swing high instead of the b/e position and got stopped out. This could be a good thing, however, I still feel that the short trade is still valid because of the Weekly Evening Star. So I have placed a limit sell order at about 20 pips above current price and see if it takes us in.

FRI3JAN20 UPDATE: SOYBEAN SHORT TRADE S/O @ -1.5u :frowning:

CORRECTION, I actually lost 1.5u on this one since I “increased the stop loss whilst reducing the size of the trade” which ended up on a 1.5u risk.

T02: FRI03JAN20: AUD/USD SHORT TRADE (1/2u trade): CLOSED @ +2.5 u :slight_smile:
Only a 1/2 unit risk on this one. It is based purely on a Fib 127 extension resistance plus a RSI O/B on the Day Chart with bear candles confirmation.

However, it doesn’t have a RSI Divergence which is what I would preferred, hence the 1/2 unit investment.

MON06JAN20 UPDATE: Trade is now at B/E
TUE07JAN20 UPDATE: Trade hit its TP @ +2.5u

T03: FRI03JAN20: SOYBEAN SHORT TRADE: CLOSED @ B/E
As mentioned in my previous Soybean short, I jumped the gun on that trade. i had no day signal or 4h chart signal, simply a 78.6% fib retracement. I gave that trade extra room to move, since I felt that it was going to make a new high whilst creating a RSI Divergence. I just didn’t know how far would it go, well it stopped me out by a few points.

So here we are, with the “first” proper short trade. I am entering on a doji plus 4h chart Bear DCC signal with the RSI Div to boot.

SAT04JAN20 UPDATE: S/L @B/E
THU09JAN20 UPDATE: S/O @B/E

MON06JAN20 COCO LONG UPDATE: Based on a 382fib and Shooting Stat forming on the daily chart, i have reduced my position by half collecting 1u profit with the remaining at b/e
:grinning:

MON13JAN20 UPDATE: S/L @ +0.7u