Kiss principle trading

FORECAST: COCO SHORT
After breaking even in the last coco short, we are looking at shorting this commodity once more however at the 2,115 area which will be the 127% extension on the Week Chart
I will be looking for a RSI Divergence and Bear Candle confirmation however in the Day Chart for this to happen. RSI is already starting to show over-bought values whilst the weekly RSI is approaching the 70% mark.

T11 AUD/USD LONG: CLOSED @B/E
Based on a Day 78.6% fib (market got just 16 pips above this level), and a Intraday 4h Hammer, I have entered long. However, I have tried to give this trade some room in the event that it continuous south to hit the actual Fib 79% level by the pip.

Wait and see…
PS I would recommend waiting for a “Bull Engulfing” candle signal as confirmation to the “hammer”.

Copper: Look out for a Bear Gartley?
Ok, so we are short on this trade which is now at B/E. Copper has made a Bull Gartley when it last reverse its downtrend, however the previous bear reversal didn’t have a gartley with it.
Nevertheless, we have two options, one I let this trade do its thing, if it forms the bear gartley or reduce my position and take some profits once the possible “A” point forms and re-enter at the possible “D” point.

For now, let’s enjoy the ride…

Thu 23 Jan: COCO has now formed a nice Bear Engulfing candle with Overbought RSI on the Day Charts. Although, I was hopping to have a very clear 127% resistance level to boot, this signal plus the Intraday RSI Div with bear candles showing, could be the turning point.
I will wait for this week’s close, since there is a chance of a “Week Harami” also forming if Coco closes around current levels. If not, and it runs away from us, we will be missing out on this trade.
For now, I have also placed a Limit Sell order at the recent high just in case we can get a nice price, shall my analysis be proven correct.

Wait and see…

T09 USD/JPY SHORT: S/L @B/E
This trade has been at B/E for a while, and it is kind of paying a bit…
Wait and see…

T11 AUD/USD LONG
Decided to protect this trade by placing my stop at b/e after a 1:1 move. We might get stopped out prematurely, but there has not been a Day Bull Engulfing candle confirming this trade yet.

FEEDBACK
Dear followers, I am trying to make my posts clearer, simpler and practical.
So I am seeking for feedback in my format, since I don’t follow any other posts I don’t know how it works in the other side.

The info I usually post is as follows:

TRADE ENTRY, then S/L update or Profit Taken update (eg reduced size to take some profits on the way), finally Trade Closure (either via S/L hit, manually closed or TP hit).

TRADE FORECAST, this one simply is my own analysis of a possible upcoming trade. The reason I do this is for us to be “in the look out” for a possible set up and be ready to trade it if it happens. If it does, this will be followed by a TRADE ENTRY post, if it doesn’t then It is the end of it.

So once I post the TRADE ENTRY, and then want to keep everybody up to date with my TRADE MANAGEMENT actions, SHALL I use the “Edit” or “Reply” post button?

I used to use the “Edit” button on the original TRADE ENTRY post but sometimes this post is a few weeks old and I dont know if you guys would get the notification and wether it would take you there. Recently I have been using the “Reply” to post button, again I dont know if this clearly links which trade or post I am referring to

So I welcome input if not I think I will keep updating the original post to keep it all in one place until it doesnt let me do so in which case i will use the reply to post button.

Happy trading :grinning::pray:

T09 USD/JPY SHORT: CLOSED @ +2u :grinning:
The U/J has formed a 4h Bull Engulfing at the 618% fib of the day charts. The Day RSI also in the lower range, therefore decided to take my profits on this one.

T12 USD/JPY LONG H4 F62: S/O -1u :frowning:
On a 4H chart Bull Engulfing at the Fib 62% support level with OS RSI (albeit no Div).

T13 AU200 SHORT D1 DIV: S/O @B/E :neutral_face:
Unfortunately this index opened with quite a gap. I could’ve waited to get a better price and risking on missing this trade. After missing out on a nice Coco entry, I decided to take it as it and with confidence that this trade will move plenty to give me a good R:R

GASOLINE BUY FORECAST
In the area as shown, we might have a nice chance to enter long on this commodity…

TUE JAN 29, 2020 GASOLINE LONG TRADE
As per my forecast above, Gasoline hit the Fib 79% by the pip and formed a nice Day Hammer (Monday) and yesterday it also formed a Bull Engulfing Candle to boot. I saw this set up yesterday, but decided to take the Soybean trade instead, given that both are commodities, I opted for the cheaper entry (in pips). If I only had known that I couldve gotten an even smashing price on Soy when it tested its Day Hammer!..Nevertheless, I am considering also taking this trade but this is a great entry if you guys missed out on the Soybean Long. Or if you have within your “bankroll management” rules the facility to trade more than one instrument in the same group, then go for it

GBP/EUR SHORT FORECAST
In the area shown, we might have a chance to sell this currency short…

T15 MON27JAN20 GBP/EUR SHORT: S/O @ B/E :neutral_face::
Entered this Short at current levels in a H4 Shooting Star rather than taking the chance of missing out like with Coco. However, there’s still a good chance of this currency heading back up north to the above mentioned area before a full turn south.

Wait and see…

T10 COPPER S/L @ +3u

T10 COPPER SHORT TRADE NOW @+4u LP :grinning:

T14 TUE28JAN20 AUD/CAD LONG: S/O -1u :frowning:
Entered long at the bottom of a range where AC has been sitting for a few weeks. Also, we had a 4H Bull Engulfing. However, I have given this trade a bit of room since there was a Day Hammer wick low sitting just below this range.

T17 WED29JAN20 AUD/USD LONG: S/O -1u :frowning:
On a Fib 79% and a nice Day Harami, I’ve entered this trade Long. Although, I am kind of putting a double bet on AUD (long AUD/CAD and long AUD/USD), the signal was strong enough to consider adding this trade.

Wait and see…

30JAN20 ANALYSIS: COCO
A couple of possible scenarios with Coco. Since I missed out on the short, we might have an opportunity to enter on a Possible Bear Gartley.
Coco likes Gartleys, as shown, it had a Bull Gartley in the 4H Chart prior to the recent rally. So, if the Day Divergence which triggered the short (that I missed) at the beginning of this week, is to hold, then we could see this Bear Gartley forming around the Fib 61.8% or 78.6% (area marked in Red)

Wait and see…

The second scenario could see Coco heading up towards the 2 x 127% Fib Extensions (marked in “pink”) around the 2,115-2,127 area, invalidating the recents Day RSI Divergence (shown below)

31JAN20 COCO FORECAST ctn’d: TO SELL OR NOT TO SELL, THAT IS THE QUESTION…
Ok, so as per my prediction above, Coco went and hit the 78.6% Fib retracement level in the H4 chart pretty much by the pip! and retraced forming some sort of candles…but is this a “Strong Bear Candle Signal”? I don’t think so. If I am wrong, I simply will miss out on riding this Coco trade once again…that is the worse of it. If I am right, I will lose 1unit…had I entered.

Having said all of this, When I re-visited the Day Chart, I had been of the impression that Coco had formed a Divergence (shown in my red dot lines), however, this is (I now believe) NOT Correct!
The last 2 highs are not in RSI Divergence, both RSI and Coco price had formed “higher highs”.

CONCLUSION: I am 80% incline to believe that Coco will take “scenario #2”, that is, will head towards its 127% extension(s), at the 2,100-2,130 area FORMING A RSI DIVERGENCE in the process. Therefore, I should stay out until this happens…

I got to say though, that the 20% is quite tempting. Like I said many times, I am a punter, and I rather “risk to lose 1unit on a possible winning trade than missing out”… :frowning:
Anyway, staying out for now…

T10 COPPER SHORT TRADE CLOSED @+6u :slight_smile:

T19 30JAN20 EUR/USD LONG TRADE H4 CHART: S/O@+1.5u
It hit a 162% extension on the daily chart plus a H4 Div. I am trying to ride the retracement of this long term down trend. Will exit and go short around the 61.8% area which is where I placed my TP for this Intraday Trade…

Note: The trades I based purely on Intraday signals have not been as successful as my entries based on either Weekly or Day Chart. So up to you to follow this one or not…Having said that, I am looking to change that pattern…

T20 31JAN20 USD/JPY LONG TRADE H4 CHART: -1u :frowning:
Fib 61.8% on Day Chart with H2 Bull Engulfing candles and Divergence in both H2 & H4
Unlike T12 U/J Long trade, we now have the RSI Div on the Intraday candles and at precisely the Fib62. I only got stopped out by a few pips. As mentioned in some of my previous posts, “my success rate when entering earlier than a Day candle by using an Intraday Candle signal has been lower than using the Day candles”…So, I am looking at improving this rate by example of this trade.
If this trade still doesn’t work, then I will considering NOT using Intraday in the search for cheaper earlier entries (before a Day confirmation).

On the other hand, after a Day Candle (say Hammer), once can argue that only then you can look for a Intraday signal to give you that better entry, this however carries the risk that the market just takes off without giving you that chance. I am confident enough in my trading to take the Day candles signals unless it is well above 100 points (GBP/JPY 200 pips entry was not one to take).

Anyway, wait and see…