Kiss principle trading

T29 MON10FEB20 COCOA SHORT D1 DIV: SL@BE
As per my comments above, I exit & reverse my long coco trade and we are now short.
Divergence on Day Chart plus a beautiful Day Shooting Star to boot.

Although there is always other possible scenarios when doing technical analysis, I tend to apply the KISS principle and I also rather enter a trade than missing out on potential profits. I have the facility to do this because I do not seek to have 100s of trades a week, but rather a handful. Coupled with my 2% risk only, plus the fact that I only look at about 15 instruments over 3 groups (currencies, commodities, indices) from which I tend to enter only 2 trades per group (total of 6 trades or 12% risk), I can take some “riskier trades”.

Reason I commenting on this, is because Coco still has the potential to run north towards the 127% extensions of two major upswings (week and day charts). as shown by the pink box.

So for those of you that have many trades and want to be more picky, you can wait for this scenario to enter short, and stay on the long side, or wait for a Bear Engulfing Day Candle to confirm the current short trade.

Up to you…

T30 LONG EUR/JPY S/O -1u
I was just about to post this trade and i get the stopped out signal… :frowning:

T31 THU13FEB20 AU200 INDEX SHORT ID/D1: 0u

Based on a Day Chart Divergence / Double Top and a 4H Shooting Star at this juncture, I have gone short. Once again, the best price was this morning at 10:30am but I am all over the place with my work times at the moment due to being between houses… :frowning:

T32 TUE18FEB20: GBP/EUR SHORT DOUBLE TOP: S/O -O.5u :frowning:

As shown, I have entered Short at the top of a long term range on the EUR/GBP.

Tue18Feb20: T27 GASOLINE LONG UPDATE: Now S/L @+0.3u

T33 THU20FEB20 GBP/EUR SHORT D1 DIV/DT: 0u
Now we have a Day Bear Candle to support our initial short trade (which was stopped out at 0.4u)

Wait and see on this one, albeit it is now costing us a bit more points but we have the candle confirmation.

One of my major mistakes so far this year, if you have been following my posts, is that the losing trades come from trading using Intraday Charts on either RSI or Candles, on an attempt to get “cheaper entries”… From here on forth, I will stop such practice and enter trades only using Day Charts for all technicals: RSI Div, Candles and Fibonnaci.

As a result, I am increasing my %risk, from 2% to 3% given that most Day Chart Candle based entries are more expensive than 4H or 2H chart candles.

In addition, I am considering the number of instruments and how many “active open” trades I will have at any given time.

Anyway, wait and see on this one…

PS So far Coco and Gasoline are in B/E and +0.3u respectively. Coco seems to be in danger of stopping us out tonight, we’ll see…

T34 Short AU200: S/L@B/E
as shown, we have a Day RSI Div and bear candle confirmation

WEEK AHEAD 24/2-28/2
I am going on holidays all next week, although I will still be trading (since it only takes me a few minutes a day) I won’t be posting my trades, so here it is what I have projected/planned for next week based on my analysis today:

Buy AUD/USD or NZD/USD: These crosses have similar signs. My preference here is NZD/USD for two key reasons: (1) It actually has hit the 78.6% Fib whilst the AUD/USD is stopped just above its 127% Fib Extension; (2) At current closed prices the trade on the NZD will cost about 50pips v 60-70pips on the AUD, since I would need to place the stop “below the 127% ext” just in case it still decides to go for it before moving north.

Add to Gasoline Long: Here I have been failing, and in the future I will add this “pyramid” trading style into my trading tools. I have been using what in punting is called “flat stakes”, that is I invest 1unit and wait for the results. I only increase the value of “one unit” when my bank increases maintaining the 2% risk of the “largest bank reached” (unless of course is time to cash in some profits). On this, I have failed to add to a winning trade using the Intraday Charts as tool. Gasoline is a point in case, after a nice Week Chart confirmation, it has been moving north with about 2-3 more entry opportunities using the 4H chart and all of these now being at b/e or better.

I will certainly work on this in the future. Perhaps, I haven’t even considered it because the market has been extremely choppy and only having a chance to b/e [in 39% of my trades!]

SELL GBP/EUR: I have been slightly hesitant with this pair, I do not know why, but twice I closed off at b/e pretty much. I would like to see a ID entry (H4) at the 786 retracement of the most recent downswing (of the H4 chart) that is Short at 1.2035 area) which coincides with the Top of the Range.
I might consider placing a Limit Sell Order at this levels and see if it takes off.

AU200 Short: If you missed it, I believe this index is forming a Bear Gartley in the 4H Chart, if I am correct it should rally above my current entry and go for the 61.8% fib retracement level of the current downswing. this should provide another entry opportunity before it heads south… IF…

That’s all for me and have a great week ahead. I shall return in a weeks time… :slight_smile:

08APR2020 TRADES

AUD/USD SHORT

COCO SHORT

SOY LONG

09APR2020 TRADES

EUR/USD LONG

13APR2020 TRADES

GBP/EUR SHORT

THU 23 APR 20 TRADES

SOY LONG

AU SHORT

Tue 28 Apr 2020 Trades

LONG EUR/USD
Closed @ +2u :slight_smile:

Wed 6 May 2020 Trade:

LONG WHEAT

Due to my new house renovations I haven’t been able to dedicate to Trading as much, reason why I do not have as many trades or I am not updating the trade management aspect of my trades. In a few months, hopefully by Spring (September), I should resume my trading which will include intraday, however those will be at only 1% risk.

Happy trading!

12MAY2020 TRADE:
SHORT COPPER

19 June 2020: Long GBP/JPY 30m chart: -1u :frowning:
After a short break I am ready to resume my trading.
I have entered long in the above currency using the short time frame of 30min

MON22JUN20: GBP/JPY LONG: TP HIT +2u :slight_smile:
4H DIVERGENCE + BULL ENGULFING

TUE23JUN20: WAITING FOR GBP/JPY 2H/4H GARTLEY…
As shown, we traded (above) the long rally of X-A leg of a possible gartley forming in the GBP/JPY. It is in the process of forming the “A” point (we still need two complete candles for confirmation of a high). If or when this happens, we will be in the look out for a Fib 62 or Fib 79 + candle formation to enter long again.

WED24JUN20: GBP/JPY GARTLEY 2H LONG -1u :frowning:

As per above analysis, the gartley “D” point formed at the Fib 62%. Although there is no guarantee that the pound will follow north from here without first retracing back to the Fib 78.6%, I have entered long on the D62% still. The actual best entry happened at midnight last night (Australia time) :frowning:

Anyway, let’s wait and see. This is a 2h entry, with a 2h TP.

POST-TRADE COMMENT: Once again, not setting my stop at the “last low X point” costed me a unit. Simply because I want to be able to buy as many lots, I tend to take these risks. And unfortunately I haven’t kept good enough records to answer this question: Is it more profitable in the long run to place my stops at “X” point on the Gartley or at the Last Low/High point rather than above/below the candle stick formation?..

So I keep on taking the risk, believing that the latter is more profitable…but my gut feeling tells me is best to buy less lots and use the last low/high or X point as my stop line…I will try to remember this next time!

What about any of you, have you been placing the stops at the last low/high instead? do anyone know the answer to the above question? if so, please let me know, it will save me some unnecessary losses when the Gartley goes to 78.6% instead…and still works…

Anyway, up with the next. I will be entering long again at this possible D-79% gartley point…

THU25JUN20: AUD/USD LONG -1u :frowning:
On a 30m and 1h divergences at the back of a broken inner down trend line and at a Fib 78.6%, with a Bull Engulfing Candle (1h) to boot.

POST-TRADE COMMENT: Not a good entry, When looking at my usual 2h-4h charts, this cross is in “sideways movement” and therefore no entries should’ve been considered :frowning: