Kiss principle trading

THU02JUL20: SUMMARY OF ACTIVE TRADES:

EUR/USD: LONG: FREEROLLING
SOYBEAN: LONG: S/L @+1u
US500: LONG: FREEROLLING
AUD/USD: LONG: S/L @-1u

THU02JUL20: EUR/JPY LONG
Similarly to the AU trade above, I had placed my up trend line in a way that was showing this cross under the Sell Zone, yet when looking at the recent up trend and the break of the past down trend line (23 jun 20), I can see this cross bouncing at the 61.8%-78.6% retracement at the UTL, also forming a 4h bull engulfing. I however also feel that this cross can yet drop down a bit before heading north (If), based on the 1h chart that is showing RSI Divergence and O/Bought signs.

Yet, I can’t see here an wait or miss out, so since this is a 4h signal I have entered long at current levels.

Wait and see…

THU02JUL20: SUMMARY OF ACTIVE TRADES:

30/06/20 SOYBEAN: LONG: S/L @+1u
01/07/20 EUR/USD: LONG: FREEROLLING
01/07/20 US500: LONG: FREEROLLING
02/07/20 AUD/USD: LONG: S/L @-1u
02/07/20 EUR/JPY: LONG: S/L @-1u

THU02JUL20: UK100 CASH LONG
Even though this instrument has been in a sideways move, I feel is in similar situation as the AUD/USD, that after forming a bull signal near a fib level (61.8%) yet away from its inner up trend line, it has moved sideways now hitting the trendline, and hopefully, to bounce off north.

wait and see…

THU02JUL20: SUMMARY OF ACTIVE TRADES:

30/06/20 SOYBEAN: LONG: S/L @+1u
01/07/20 EUR/USD: LONG: FREEROLLING
01/07/20 US500: LONG: FREEROLLING
02/07/20 AUD/USD: LONG: S/L @-1u
02/07/20 EUR/JPY: LONG: S/L @-1u
02/07/20 UK100: LONG: S/L @-1u

COCO: WAITING TO BUY
Coco has been in a nice up trend for quite a while, then after a Week Div around Feb’20, it turned around. It ended up forming a weekly hammer before bouncing back up to the 78.6% Fib retracement level of the same downswing. It is at this point where we had a second chance for a sale trade (if trading the weekly charts). It formed a nice “Evening Star”. Now, here is where our chance to enter long appears to present itself…either this or next week.

When drawing the fib (in pink) for the last downswing, its 127% extension crosses with the long term up trend line (marked in dark green box and with a “B”). This juncture should also coincide with the Week RSI hitting oversold levels. (also marked in dark green box).

I am considering either:
(1) Placing a buy order around this juncture
or
(2) Wait for a Day candle confirmation at this juncture to enter long.

Obviously, out of the 2 options, the latter is the safer one, but it will cost us a few more points.

I have some meditation to do…

PS; I love trading coco, and have been missing out in a lot of opportunities whilst catching some :slight_smile:

FRI03JUL20: SUMMARY OF ACTIVE TRADES:
AUD/USD: 02/07/20 LONG S/L@B/E
COCO: WAITING FOR POS LONG ENTRY
EUR/JPY: 02/07/20 S/O @-0.4u
EUR/USD: 01/07/20 LONG S/L @B/E
GBP/JPY: WAITING FOR POS LONG ENTRY
SOYBEAN: 30/06/20 LONG S/L @+1.5u
UK100: 02/07/20 S/O @B/E
USP500: 01/07/20 TP HIT +2U

FRI03JUL20: MULTIPLE TRADES:

EUR/JPY SHORT: CLOSED @B/E

GBP/JPY SHORT: EXIT/REVERSE (SEE NEW POST)

UK100 SHORT: S/O @B/E

US500 SHORT: CLOSED @-0.5u

AUD/USD SHORT: CLOSED @-0.5u

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UPDATING THE TRADES PERFORMANCE:

Hi everyone, I have tried my best to keep updating the progress and results of my trades when things change like trailing my stops, tp hit, etc. However, I am finding it quite difficult to keep up. I am still in the middle of renovating our home whilst trying to keep up with my 2h-Day trading charts.

So please forgive me if I can’t keep up with the “Trade Management” part of trading. I will leave this up to you.

Here are the key principles I use, which could help share some light on how I manage my trades in “general”:

Risk Management:
I try to move my trades to b/e as soon as possible when any of the following occurs first:
(a) My trade has move at least 1-1.5x my risk. This is if the trade costed me 50 pips+ I will certainly move my stop to b/e once it has move +50pips my way.
(b) The instrument has formed a new low/high in a smaller timeframe than the one I used to enter the trade. i.e. if I entered a trade using signals that showed in the 4h chart, then if there is new high/low formed in the 2h or 1h chart I will move my stop to that new low or high hence reducing my initial risk
© When the instrument is showing signs of weakness in the same timeframe. e.g. RSI over bought/sold showing, etc.

This is why I have quite a few “stop outs at b/e” (S/O@B/E) :blush:
However, although sometimes I get stopped out prematurely, because I use 2h-Day charts, I can find a lot of new trades to enter into.

This is also why sometimes I only lose 0.5u instead of the full 1u, etc.

My key principle is to “preserve my capital”.

Profit Management: On the other hand I use a variety of ways to catch profits:
(1) 1.5x my investment as a fix profit taking for a “quick” trade.
(2) Fibonacci 127% (sometimes the 161.8%)
(3) Cancel and Replace: Follows “b” above, when I move my stop to the new high/low formed by the instrument.
(4) Exit/Reverse: If I see a new opposing signal, I will exit and reverse my trade on that instant

I hope this give you all an idea of how I manage my trades. I will add a summary again of my method, which I have tried to improved and simplify, after all this topic is called "Kiss principle trading!"

I will do so before Monday. It will list the instruments I am trading since July 2020, and the basic principles for my entries as well as the “best timeframes” for each instrument. The timeframes “I believe” works best for my method for the listed instruments.

Stay tuned!

Happy trading!

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MON06JUL20: ACTIVE TRADES

GBP/JPY LONG: Closed @B/E
This cross is in a new Up Trend by the Day Chart, so we will follow this trend until the Day Chart forms a Divergence on the RSI

DAY UP TREND: I had taken the long where the red arrows show, however I got out and cashed in some profits with the intention of re-entering long…yet I got “side-track” and forgot about this, entering short at one point. Anyway, I believe we are back on track.

INTRADAY LONG ENTRY:
As shown, I have not set a TP. I intend to ride this new Day Up Trend until the Day Chart shows a RSI Divergence or it breaks the new Inner Up Trend Line (not formed yet). Let’s wait and see…

=============

EUR/USD LONG: S/O @-0.3u
We are still “Free-rolling” on this cross. As shown, after some sideways movements, we didn’t get s/o (luckily since it came pretty close) and hopefully the up trend is resuming from here. Wait and see…
Unlike GJ, I have a TP set for this one above the last Day High, my thoughts are that this cross will form a Day RSI Divergence, which requires a new high and the RSI not to make a high, hence my TP above the last high… It has bounced at the 38% fib, with a Bull Engulfing and broke the most recent inner down trend line, went sideways and missed our stop. So…
Wait and see…

========
SOY LONG: +3u :slight_smile:
We are at the Fib 127% with a Doji Day Candle formed. We have secured 1.5u on this one but I am considering closing it since I can’t move my stop any closer (I use the GSLO from CMC and has its limitations)… But I also want to let this trade play out, there is no signs of a Day Reversal and have set my TP at the 161.8%, but let’s wait and see.

The Intraday Chart is in RSI O/Bought but the recent Bear Engulfing has been taken by a gap opening. Still, chances of a retracement at this point before hopefully heading back up north again…

Wait and see…

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MON06JUL20: EUR/JPY LONG TRADE OPPORTUNITY
I am not entering this trade, for two reasons: (1) I missed out on the proper entry, well I believe I entered it however I got stopped out prematurely. (2) I already have a freerolling trade with the EUR/USD and have just entered the GBP/JPY (so the EU + JPY crosses are covered)…

There was a nice LONG trade oportunity a few days back (marked with red-arrow). And if you are still interested, you can use the Intraday chart to still enter in this up trend ride…

But it might cost around 50-100 pips…

With a bounce at the Fib 61,8% and Day Bull Engulfing Candle, there was a nice entry (red arrow), specially since it came down to give us a cheaper entry, then forming a doji… Afterwards, EJ broke the new inner down trend line, and gave us another chance when coming close to the 618% again…now it seems to finally want to make a move… So we can use the Intraday chart as shown for an entry…
Also, unlike the EUR/USD (EU), the EUR/JPY (EJ) has actually formed a new Inner Up Trend Line in the Day Chart…

good luck!

PS: The horizontal red arrows mark the suggested Stop Loss location…

MON06JUL20: COFFEE BUY COMING UP?

So the Coffee has completed the first few steps of my version of “The Gartley” which I nicknamed “TTR”… We have formed the “A” point and are now waiting for a retracement to fib levels (as shown in green and marked with a “B arrow”) to buy after a candle confirmation at least on the 4h chart. Although, given my past failures with coffee I think I prefer to wait for a Day Candle confirmation…

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TUE07JUL20: COFFEE LONG 4H CHART: S/[email protected]
As per above, we have entered Long on Coffee after a Bull Engulfing at the Fib 61.8% with the S/L @ Last Low as shown

Now, wait and see…

WED08JUL20: GBP/JPY (GJ) LONG 30m Chart: S/O @ B/E
Unfortunately, posting the 30min or 1h chart trades can’t be done quickly enough…

But nevertheless here is my today’s trade. I tried to enter long yesterday, but the GSLO was forcing me to have a 50pips trade which I didn;t want to take…and regret it…I was planning on entering long in the UK time but I forgot due to renovations :frowning: ended up missing out on a 100+ pips move!
So today, I decided to take the 50pips stop, buy less lots, and still be in it for a 100 pips target…

Wait and see…

WED08JUL20: COCO LONG DAY CHART: S/O -1u :frowning:
6days ago I posted “Coco waiting to buy”. So yesterday I entered long after what it looked like a Day Hammer formed near the 61.8%. I was planning on waiting a bit more, but I went in. It is in my nature “I rather be in it to win it” than “regreat I missed out” kind of situation.

Anyway, read the post of 6 days ago to see the technicals behind it…

POST TRADE NOTE: I am not happy with my analysis on this instrument. I have sidetracked from the “inner trend line break” and RSI Div approach I have been using. I made one of my “rookie mistakes” here…
But it is too late to jump out, just let it takes us out… :frowning:

WED08JUL20: INACTIVE INSTRUMENTS
These are the instruments where I do not have a trade in at the moment, “staying out” for now.

AUD/USD: STAYING OUT
EUR/JPY: STAYING OUT
EUR/USD: STAYING OUT
UK100: STAYING OUT
US500: STAYING OUT

SOY WAITING TO BUY
After a nice rally on the soy and a +3u profit :slight_smile: (bragging here lol), I took the profits after the Day Hammer was formed. In the past I would’ve “exit and reverse” right here, but I am not trading against the trend without my rules being met (which I will be writing about probably towards end of this week once I have completed phase 1 of my reno, according to my boss …the wife… then we will have a pause finally! I can get back to my geek work…) :slight_smile:

Anyway, I am ready and waiting for Soy to come down to the “blue box” marked by “B” at the 61.8-78.6 fib levels of the current up trend.

WED08JUL20: EUR/JPY LONG: S/O @B/E
This cross has been in a new up trend (at least so far), and I have been waiting to jump back in long for a few days. So, today it retraced to a Fib 50 / Fib 61.8 and broke its inner down trend line with a bull candle completed on the other side (buy zone),
So I am now long on this cross

WED08JUL20: GBP/JPY LONG: S/O @B/E
On the 30th June, this cross “crossed” into the “Buy Zone” by breaking this recent down inner trend line (DAY CHART)

Since then, after a few premature stop outs, I finally managed to find an intraday entry in the up trend direction (2H CHART)

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FRI10JUL20: AUD/USD SHORT 4H CHAR S/O@B/ET
Taking the short on this one based on 4h RSI Div and break of trend line. One can argue my placement of this trend line, but since the last high is forming a tweezer top with the previous high, I am drawing my tl as shown…giving me the indication that it has been broken
as usual we also have some bear candles signals…