Today the Dow 30 led the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 lower while significant volume holds NASDAQ near 1-month highs without posting gains on today’s daily.
This sort of typical US stock index operation leads me to believe it is yet another sign a pullback of 4% or greater from today’s spot prices is on the way. The preferred instrument to sell is the S&P 500 as the NASDAQ proves stubborn to relieve prices and the Dow 30 has a much smaller share supply than the S&P 500.
FNMA I see the way it’s been operating the last few weeks and it’s time to close position until profit taking leads to a substantial pullback, or trade and hold positions based on a different duration than my posted 1-10 weeks posted 9 weeks ago. The trade idea was admittedly beta compared to expectations.
AUDUSD offers another favorable entry at 0.711 since the last target of 0.715 from 0.707 cleared last week. This new buy target of 0.72 has a duration of 1-3 weeks.
Couple that with high probability of the EURUSD rising 0.75% within the same approximate duration.
Major stock market indices seem poised to hold ground and possibly post slight gains until the end of next week (today is Wednesday, 9 days from the Friday’s close after next) before pulling back further based on the way major bank stocks have been operating, most notably JP Morgan Chase (JPM).
Outlooks for S&P 500 and Russell 2000 remain short sell profit targeting somewhere in the ballpark of a 4% difference within 1-8 weeks.
Dow 30 (DJIA - latest quote $25,630) looks like it’s gearing up to try $26,000 (1.4% difference) next week.
An expectation to remember if looking to add short positions to trade ideas previously posted S&P 500 and Russell 2000.
Previous 20 hours of Bitcoin action has been hilarious. Target $4,700, latest quote $4,948 which is a 5% difference. Duration is 1-30 days.
April 8th 2019
Looks like a good price to double down short the NASDAQ. Latest quote $7,943. NASDAQ is at 5-day and 1-year resistance at $7,900 and $8,000, respectively.
Dow Jones Industrial Average is at November 2018 highs of $26,200 (latest quote $26,314) which will provide further resistance. Realize this is a different time-frame than the NASDAQ resistances and thus a bear sign in addition to the 1-day chart which illustrates obvious distribution.
The Russell 2000 Index coincides with the Dow Jones Industrial Average resistance from November 2018, latest quote $1,576.
The implied trade idea continues to be sell-short the S&P 500 with now being a prudent time to double-down opening up the potential for a further grid strategy.
AUDUSD position seems to be in favor although the duration is near expiration. I’m extending the duration of this trade idea for 1-4 weeks. Latest quote 0.7129, up from originally posted 0.711. Target continues to be 0.72 which is a 0.9% difference from the latest quote.
Brent Crude Oil nearing major selling point at $75 which may serve as resistance. Latest quote for Brent Crude Oil is $71.12.
Just an idea to begin to consider going short Brent Crude Oil targeting $68.
EURUSD obvious bull signs pointing to 1.131 from latest quote 1.126 which is a 0.4% difference.
With Brent Crude Oil prices high USDCAD is probably a superior instrument to trade sell targeting 1.32 from latest quote 1.331 for a 0.8% difference. EURUSD probabilities seem to be even more favored than the USDCAD in the short-term although the upside in USDCAD sell positions are likely to be larger.
Duration for USDCAD sell and EURUSD buy are both 1-30 days.
Sell-short USD hedge idea is supported by rising 10-Year Treasury Bond Interest Rates today which appear highly likely to reverse from bearish to bullish based on trends and charts. Latest 10-Year T-Bond Yield quote is 2.517% while 1-year projections are 3% followed by a 5-year projection of 4%.
1-3 month major currency outlook update - April 8th 2019
Bearish - US Dollar clearly losing momentum. Anticipate downside around 1% against bullish major pairs.
Bullish - Canadian Dollar clearly gaining momentum and relative strength during up-trend on 1 and 6 month charts. Anticipate upside around 1.2% against bearish major pairs.
Bullish - Australian Dollar 6-month chart illustrates demand and prices gaining strength although prices are at a major selling point in the 1-month chart. Anticipate an as-of-now random breakout in the magnitude of around 1% after a period of range-bound action.
Bullish - Euro clearly gaining traction from 1-month lows which are slightly above 6-month support. Anticipate upside around 1% against bearish major pairs.
Neutral / Bearish - Great British Pound created lower highs on the 1-month chart.
Neutral - Japanese Yen creating support while trending down on both 1 and 6 month time-frames.
Neutral - Swiss Franc clearly accumulating while trending (seemingly artificially) down.
The Euro seems poised to lead the US Dollar down before the Canadian and Australian Dollars.
S&P 500 is back around all time highs, latest quote $2,913.
Immediate upside seems limited to around $3,100, above August 2018 highs around $2,930.
The trade idea continues to be short the S&P 500, as previously posted. The sell cover price target for this trade is $2,750 - a 5.9% difference from the latest quotes.
An idea for a grid strategy is to set a sell-limit to double the position at $2,975.
The US Dollar continued to distribute high up around a 5-year resistance in an unusually tight price range last week as the week before, all while the EURUSD rose from 1.123 to 1.13.
On that topic, looking back at the thread the trade idea bullish EURUSD 8 days ago was successful, 1.131 target has already been achieved.
The AUDUSD trade idea bullish is turning out successfully so far, it is near the target which continues ongoing at 0.72 with latest quotes at 0.7176 reaching a recent high of 0.7184. Being close to target, it is time to consider closing the position at profit of more than 0.5%.
The favored trade idea in the short US Dollar position is short the USDCAD and USDJPY. The previously favored instruments in this thread for this trade were the AUDUSD and EURUSD which have already performed accordingly.
Latest USDCAD quotes are at 1.335 and the sell cover target is considered 1.327 for a 0.6% difference. Duration for this trade idea is 1-6 weeks.
USDJPY latest quote is 111.97, sell target is 111.1 for a 0.7% difference. The duration for this trade is 1-4 weeks.
XAUUSD (Gold - US Dollar) dropped a significant 1% today. Latest quote is $1,275. It looks poised to post downside under $1,260-$1,230 although AUDvantages outlook continues to be bullish targeting $1,390.
Weak Euro PMI combined with USDCHF breakout leads me to believe the EURUSD has further downside potential. Latest EURUSD quote 1.124. I plan to reconsider buy entry under 1.105 or after signs of strength in the Euro.
USDCHF is a sell to consider. Trade idea bullish Swiss Franc upcoming in a new thread. This will complement the USD and GBP short hedges.
Another favorable price/time opened short-selling the S&P 500 from latest quote $2,907 targeting $2,850.
XAUUSD another good opportunity to buy the price at $1,275.
XAUUSD (Gold) holds tight trading sideways after selling off. Target $1,290 from latest quote $1,275 April 22nd for a 1.1% difference. Duration for the trade idea is 1-20 days. Further outlook continues to be bullish targeting $1,390.
Another prudent opportunity to buy the EURUSD for a short-term position.
April 29th, EURUSD quote 1.118
April 30th, EURUSD quote 1.1219 daily high above-near 1.122.
Yesterday’s quote from this topic was April 29th quote 1.118. posted “another prudent opportunity to buy the EURUSD for a short-term position.” Successful trade idea, closing time because EURUSD I utilize for very short-term positions. 0.18% profit. Preferred instrument is short-sell USDCHF and USDJPY, then holding buy AUDUSD longer-term.
USDCAD short-sell trade idea remaining in half successful (so far) hedge idea thread 2-6 Week Hedge - Sell GBP + USD / Buy CAD + JPY “Sell GBP + USD / Buy CAD + JPY” doesn’t look as probable for success as it did last week. Still hold short-sell USDCAD. GBPJPY sell was successful. USDJPY short-sell looks probable for success.