July 18th
July 30th
Take profits EURAUD, around 1.8%.
This hedge didn’t work out very well, it was intended short-term against long-term alignments (out of range) so better off closing early then later; which is usually against my usual operating procedure.
GBPJPY
GBPUSD
EURUSD
EURJPY
Duration extended 2-12 weeks.
July 31st, 2019
US Dollar is reminding me of Euro action before it crashed from 1.37 to 1.10 in 2014-15. I’m familiar with instruments resisting reversal with corners, this goes especially for instruments related to USD.
I’m much more inclined bearish the US Dollar Index with a long-term outlook now that the Dow Jones Industrial Index looks geared up to sell, the USD is thrashing like the NASDAQ did July 2018 (a year ago to date) before it had its’ biggest correction in 5 years (bottom $6,600 December 2018 vs. quote $8,100). The Fed is now on course to reduce overnight benchmarks (lowered rates a quarter point today), making it obvious that the financial market is quite saturated and over-due for correction.
Bearish US Dollar, broadly, with a 1-3 year outlook.
Bearish NASDAQ with a 1-6 month outlook.
Call off XAUUSD short exposure.
Gold surprised me with strength, I’m afraid it’s going to corner.
August 2nd - XAUUSD quote $1,442. Long-term outlook favors upside to $1,500-$1,600.
August 5th
That paid quickly.
From quote $8,100 5 days ago, quote today $7,800.
August 8th
Now that the dust has settled from the pullback.
Trade based on the NASDAQ… etc. rebound.
Bullish AUDUSD quote 0.68 buy target 0.69 for a 1.4% difference.
Bullish AAL.L (Anglo American Plc) quote 1,842 target 2,000 for an 8% difference.
Bearish XAUUSD (Gold - USD) quote $1,496 target $1,460 for a 2% difference.
Duration for all three trades is 1-10 weeks.
AUGUST 8th, a funny hedge idea that is extremely conservative as is diversified and likely to work based on quotes TODAY. Funny because it’s probable to hit major ~3% gains in a 3-9 month time-frame. No stop loss necessary. Only take-profit limits and expiration dates necessary within a 1-9 month time-frame. Multiply profits with leverage as is reasonable. Adjust leverage as per instruments based on long-term range differences.
Estimate - 10X leverage (aggregate) is conservative enough if positions are managed. 20X leverage is reasonable. 1-9 month capital gain may range 20%-50%, or 40%-100% on 20X leverage. Likeliest 2-4 months. On the way to 200% YTD returns?
USDJPY buy (US Dollar - Japanese Yen)
AUDUSD buy (Australian Dollar - US Dollar)
AUDJPY buy (Australian Dollar - Japanese Yen)
EURJPY buy (Euro - Japanese Yen)
GBPJPY buy (Great British Pound - Japanese Yen)
GBPUSD buy (Great British Pound - US Dollar)
NZDUSD buy (New Zealand Dollar - US Dollar)
NZDJPY buy (New Zealand Dollar - Japanese Yen)
USDRUB sell (Russian Ruble - US Dollar)
USDZAR sell (South African Rand - US Dollar)
USDSEK sell (Swedish Krona - US Dollar)
USDNOK sell (Norwegian Kroner - US Dollar)
August 12th, 2019. Broader outlook check-in.
US Dollar - valuation inflated, outlook strongly favors sell-short. Cite US Dollar Index at resistance levels last approached in 2015 and 2016. Always resulted in substantial sell-offs taking price down around 5%. Political concerns seem to have caused the US Dollar to staunchly resist bears in December 2018, a hold-out to squeeze short-positions and enhance purchases of USD denominated stocks. Substantially lower lows in 2018 than 2016 suggest aggressive downside potential and that recent bullishness is an artificial result of political/monetary events. Bearish outlook duration extends 3-12 months.
XAU/USD (Gold / US Dollar) - Volatility greatly reduced trending up into resistance in the past 2 hours suggests massive demand considering it’s already cornered into the upside for a full $40 gain on the 30-day chart. This implies future weakness in US stock indexes. With upside limited to $1,600 based on resistance established in 2011-2012 the outlook for XAUUSD is neutral with a likely binary scenario of a sharp sell-off or gradual climb towards $1,600 before pulling back.
USDCNY (US Dollar / Chinese Yuan) - 2016 and 2018 highs being nearly exactly equivalent illustrates management from Peoples Bank Of China. The fact that this level was breached this month on tariff news suggests that artificial USD pumping is a result of lackluster real demand hampering profit taking for USD bulls and that Beijing is participating in favor of prolonging USD bullishness as they are major holders of USD denominations. Outlook suggests to avoid USDCNY exposure as buyer or seller outside of the short-term.
US Treasury Bond and T-Bill Denominations - Anticipated USD denominated stock weakness coupled with reduction in the Federal Reserve bench mark rates suggest highly probable downside in yields. The fact that 1-6 month T-Bills are yielding more than 1-10 year T-Bonds illustrates the monetary climate being highly distorted. Yields have pulled back near 2016 supports. Outlook recommends anticipating range-bound action between below support (1.4%) and below 2017 resistance; i.e. 1.2%-2.0%. Currently 1.7%. Probabilities suggest further downside in yields considering the ferocity in which the Fed is resisting a reversal in US denominated stocks.
Euro - Euro exchange rates are obviously being suppressed across the board versus the majors in the past 2 years, partially due to facilitating artificial pump-priming of USD exchange rates. Upsides becoming sharpened and more substantial in the past year suggest an aggressive reversal is due to take place to correct obvious under-valuation in a 1-2 year outlook. Technically; upside appears to strongly favor gains from current spots in the realm of 5%, possible to be achieved within any 3-month duration based on some catalyst at random yet inevitable time.
EURUSD (Euro / US Dollar) - Downside slope greatly reduced as it nears 2016 resistances from post 2014-2015 crash suggests a sharp reversal is upcoming. 2017-2018 very successful breakout through this resistance level implies 2018 highs around 1.24 (current 1.12) likely to be breached during next rally. Outlook bullish with a 6-24 month duration.
Great British Pound - GBP index very close and under (by a mere 1-3%) 2017 post-Brexit-news lows suggests downside risk is no longer relevant. No-Deal-Brexit has been priced into the market. Political uncertainties will continue to reduce demand until October although there are sharp upside risks as Brexit is completed, thus GBP is due to correct towards the upside in the realm of 15% difference from spot across the board versus majors, but possibly excluding the Euro, partially. This years LIBOR yield pullback after an eccentric run up suggests significant upside with a 1-6 month outlook. Outlook remains extremely bullish with a 6-24 month outlook.
GBPUSD (Great British Pound / US Dollar) - Under repeatedly visited lows from 2016/17 (1.22) by one penny (current quote 1.208) creates a rare opportunity in probability for buyers in the shorter-term. Upside to 1.25 appears extremely probable in a 1-6 month term and likely limited to around 1.30, a very lucrative scenario presented. Outlook extremely bullish with a 1-9 month outlook.
To be continued…
August 13th
VIX 5-day chart leads me to suggest not to expect much more from Dow Jones Industrial Average (and correlated instruments) rebound which was based on media alleviation of trade war concerns based on a slight from Washington DC.
USDZAR (US Dollar / South African Rand)
Sell Target 14.50
Quote 15.14
Difference 4.4%
Overnight Interest High
Duration 2-12 Weeks
August 13th
August 13th, 2019. Broader outlook check-in part 2.
Brent Crude Oil / US Dollar - In limbo, wait for range $50-$75 to break. Current quote $61.
Dow Jones Industrial Average - 20 year chart makes obvious now is approximately time/price in the long-term top. A reasonable long-term short-sell target would be ultimately $20,000 with a duration of 1-5 years. Current quote $26,279, a 30% (roughly) difference.
S&P 500 - Refer to above “Dow Jones Industrial Average” with a ultimate target of $2,300. Current quote $2,926, a 25% (roughly) difference.
NASDAQ - Refer to above “Dow Jones Industrial Average”. In the shorter-term (1-3 month duration) anticipate upside limits around $8,250. Quote $8,016, a 9% difference. In the shortest-term (1-3 weeks) anticipate downside probable to $7,900. Quote $8,016, a 1.4% difference.
To be continued…
22 hours later and that downside of $7,900 1.4% from yesterday’s spot has already been realized. Quote $7,800. Surprise!
August 17th, 2019
Stock indexes globally are supporting considering a 2-week time-scale.
Volatility remains elevated which leads me to consider probability of upside in major US stock indexes NASDAQ, S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial, ^RUT with the magnitude of 2%-6% in mind. Dow 30 quote $25,886. Anticipate $26,500; a 2.3% difference from quote. Duration for this outlook is 2-8 weeks. Upside limits appropriate and probable around $27,500; a 6% difference from quote. Confidence in Dow-30 performance: low.
Defensive stock to consider is AAL.L (Anglo American Plc) quoted AUG-17 $1,698.
Reason being XAU / USD (Gold / US Dollar) prices have elevated and appear poised to continue to range above $1,400 with a 1-3 month outlook. Dividend growth (5% yield) reflects metals rally and may continue. Market cap 23.5-BLN means it is quite defensive as pure equity play. Debt only 3-BLN. Earnings 8-BLN. Assets exceed liabilities greatly.
"Industry: Industrial Metals & Minerals
Full Time Employees: 64,000"
Gold on the rise, global growth slowdown may not reverse trend in production cost which could lead to Platinum rising in shadow of Gold; versus the US Dollar.
Company (AAL.L) revenue rose dramatically more than cost of revenue since 2016 (3 years), an advantage offered by the current market climate (inflation lacking) I deem. Liabilities being much less than assets makes this an indestructible defensive play.
Platinum group metals are in a strong bullish trend, being rare basic industrial materials this may continue.
“Platinum group metals” includes: Platinum, Rhodium, Palladium, Iridium, Osmium, Ruthenium.
Long-term copper price risk is to the upside. Refer to recession '08 Copper prices.
“Anglo American plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in exploring, mining, and processing various metals and minerals worldwide. The company explores for rough and polished diamonds, copper, platinum group metals, metallurgical and thermal coal, and iron; and nickel and manganese ores, as well as alloys.”
Nickel is up 20% in the past 3 months.
Credit Suisse upgraded to “Outperform” from “Neutral” 5/3/2019. Today is 8/17/2019.
AAL.L (Anglo American Plc) target 2,100 from weekend quote $1,698 for a 23% difference and a duration of 1-6 months, estimate 2-3 months. This creates possibility of receiving its’ dividend of approximately 3% in addition.
August 19th, 2019
Appears the Dow30, NASDAQ and S&P 500 will likely remain level for 2-5 weeks before selling off again. Upside limits on the Dow30 remain around (or under) $27,000. Likely range around $25,800-$27,000. Quote today $26,100 which is 3.1% below $27,000 (likely approximate upside limit). Signs apparent from Nikkei 225 operation, US Treasury Yields.
Probabilities favor downside in XAU / USD (Gold / US Dollar) based on broad net selling the past 3 trading day period. Quote $1,501, outlook anticipates likely-hood of a pullback to $1,470, 2.7% down from today’s quote.
US Treasuries poised to bounce with stock markets suspended in the midst of this soft rebound. 10-Year Treasury yields quoted at 1.606%, anticipate upside to near or above 1.8% to take 2-4 weeks to clear. This may act as an effective barometer as to when to return to short the NASDAQ again. A decent trade prospect, the difference between 1.6 and 1.8 is 12%, I’m confident in the short-term performance of this outlook.
The Forex pecking order in upside remains, as previously posted; GBP > USD > JPY with a 2-8 week outlook.
August 22nd, 2019
NASDAQ resistance appears staunch. Refer to August 8th, August 13th, August 19th highs around $8,000. Quote $7,991. Probabilities seem to favor short targeting $7,780, a 2.7% difference which is paltry considering likely-hood of a corner and the time-frame 2-3 weeks…
Avoid exposure 1-8 week time-frame NASDAQ.
August 22nd
EURUSD: upside favored in short-term with downside limited, probably. Encouraged exposure target 1.12 in mind, quote 1.108 (1%). 1-3 week outlook.
US Treasury Bond 10-Year: favor upside towards 1.75, quote 1.61, an 8.6% difference in a 1-3 week time-frame.
GBPUSD: Extremely bullish 1-3 week outlook targeting 1.24, quote 1.225, a 1.2% difference. GBPJPY preferred instrument to buy GBP.
Bitcoin / USD: probabilities technically favor upside with week and month outlooks.
August 22nd
August 23rd, The Next Day
NASDAQ hit short target of $7,780 the day after post; current quote $7,750. Time frame of 2-3 weeks? Less than 2-3 days.
All outstanding targets have closed. Time to close this thread and make a neater format.
THREAD CLOSED.
Check history for examples of (mostly) successful economics/events based trading.