The futures markets can’t compete with its relatively limited liquidity.
But futures have instruments not available on Forex.
GBPCHF latest quote 1.3234 March 6th, the trade idea is sell with a target of 1.31 and a duration of 1 month.
S&P 500 (SPX) continues selling, latest quote $2,748.64. Anticipate continued selling with a short-term target of $2,650.
Couple that with the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) latest quote of $17.10 which would be a preferable instrument; excepting that it already rose from $14 to $17 which is near considerable resistance at $18.
GBPCHF target of 1.31 has been reached from the quote of 1.3234 2 days ago, the duration posted was originally 1-month.
Instant winner
S&P 500 (SPX) is back at a major selling point, target $2,650 which is more than 4% under the latest quote.
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is back at decent entry prices, latest quote $14.46. Take profit limit greater than $16.50 will suffice.
S&P 500 (SPX) at major resistance, refer to December 2018 and November 2018. Latest quote is $2,816 and the sell target continues to be $2,650 which is a 6.2% difference from the spot quote. Duration 2-8 weeks.
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is based on the S&P 500 as a derivative. The instrument VIX is back around support reached at March 1st and Feb 25th. Latest quote is $13.45 while the previously posted take profit limit of greater than $16.50 continues to be ongoing. Duration is 2-8 weeks just as the S&P 500 sell trade idea although a secondary target of $22 seems to be a good idea.
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) March 16 Quote $12.88
Target $16 for a duration of 2-8 weeks.
Today the Dow 30 led the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 lower while significant volume holds NASDAQ near 1-month highs without posting gains on today’s daily.
This sort of typical US stock index operation leads me to believe it is yet another sign a pullback of 4% or greater from today’s spot prices is on the way. The preferred instrument to sell is the S&P 500 as the NASDAQ proves stubborn to relieve prices and the Dow 30 has a much smaller share supply than the S&P 500.
FNMA I see the way it’s been operating the last few weeks and it’s time to close position until profit taking leads to a substantial pullback, or trade and hold positions based on a different duration than my posted 1-10 weeks posted 9 weeks ago. The trade idea was admittedly beta compared to expectations.
AUDUSD offers another favorable entry at 0.711 since the last target of 0.715 from 0.707 cleared last week. This new buy target of 0.72 has a duration of 1-3 weeks.
Couple that with high probability of the EURUSD rising 0.75% within the same approximate duration.
Major stock market indices seem poised to hold ground and possibly post slight gains until the end of next week (today is Wednesday, 9 days from the Friday’s close after next) before pulling back further based on the way major bank stocks have been operating, most notably JP Morgan Chase (JPM).
Outlooks for S&P 500 and Russell 2000 remain short sell profit targeting somewhere in the ballpark of a 4% difference within 1-8 weeks.
Dow 30 (DJIA - latest quote $25,630) looks like it’s gearing up to try $26,000 (1.4% difference) next week.
An expectation to remember if looking to add short positions to trade ideas previously posted S&P 500 and Russell 2000.
My thread about selling S&P 500 for 1.5%.
NASDAQ going down.
Previous 20 hours of Bitcoin action has been hilarious. Target $4,700, latest quote $4,948 which is a 5% difference. Duration is 1-30 days.
April 8th 2019
Looks like a good price to double down short the NASDAQ. Latest quote $7,943. NASDAQ is at 5-day and 1-year resistance at $7,900 and $8,000, respectively.
Dow Jones Industrial Average is at November 2018 highs of $26,200 (latest quote $26,314) which will provide further resistance. Realize this is a different time-frame than the NASDAQ resistances and thus a bear sign in addition to the 1-day chart which illustrates obvious distribution.
The Russell 2000 Index coincides with the Dow Jones Industrial Average resistance from November 2018, latest quote $1,576.
The implied trade idea continues to be sell-short the S&P 500 with now being a prudent time to double-down opening up the potential for a further grid strategy.
AUDUSD position seems to be in favor although the duration is near expiration. I’m extending the duration of this trade idea for 1-4 weeks. Latest quote 0.7129, up from originally posted 0.711. Target continues to be 0.72 which is a 0.9% difference from the latest quote.
Brent Crude Oil nearing major selling point at $75 which may serve as resistance. Latest quote for Brent Crude Oil is $71.12.
Just an idea to begin to consider going short Brent Crude Oil targeting $68.
EURUSD obvious bull signs pointing to 1.131 from latest quote 1.126 which is a 0.4% difference.
With Brent Crude Oil prices high USDCAD is probably a superior instrument to trade sell targeting 1.32 from latest quote 1.331 for a 0.8% difference. EURUSD probabilities seem to be even more favored than the USDCAD in the short-term although the upside in USDCAD sell positions are likely to be larger.
Duration for USDCAD sell and EURUSD buy are both 1-30 days.
Sell-short USD hedge idea is supported by rising 10-Year Treasury Bond Interest Rates today which appear highly likely to reverse from bearish to bullish based on trends and charts. Latest 10-Year T-Bond Yield quote is 2.517% while 1-year projections are 3% followed by a 5-year projection of 4%.
1-3 month major currency outlook update - April 8th 2019
Bearish - US Dollar clearly losing momentum. Anticipate downside around 1% against bullish major pairs.
Bullish - Canadian Dollar clearly gaining momentum and relative strength during up-trend on 1 and 6 month charts. Anticipate upside around 1.2% against bearish major pairs.
Bullish - Australian Dollar 6-month chart illustrates demand and prices gaining strength although prices are at a major selling point in the 1-month chart. Anticipate an as-of-now random breakout in the magnitude of around 1% after a period of range-bound action.
Bullish - Euro clearly gaining traction from 1-month lows which are slightly above 6-month support. Anticipate upside around 1% against bearish major pairs.
Neutral / Bearish - Great British Pound created lower highs on the 1-month chart.
Neutral - Japanese Yen creating support while trending down on both 1 and 6 month time-frames.
Neutral - Swiss Franc clearly accumulating while trending (seemingly artificially) down.
The Euro seems poised to lead the US Dollar down before the Canadian and Australian Dollars.