July 12th, guidance as a trinket for this content format still being in its’ unfinished limbo phase… Expect a more organized, useful and uniform format in the future; eventually.
XAUUSD (Gold - US Dollars) - Quote $1,415. Anticipate downside towards $1,375-$1,340 which is a 3%-5% difference. Reason being 5-year charts makes it apparent its’ upside has extended fully, distribution near highs and a consolidation pattern marked by lower lows on the 30-day chart makes it apparent this trend has probably reached its’ zenith and is poised to pull back.
Brent Crude Oil in US Dollars - Neutral outlook with probabilities favoring upside for a 1-6 month outlook.
Foreign Currency Exchange
US Dollar - Anticipate downside for a 1-3 week outlook.
Euro - Anticipate upside (contrary to US Dollar) for a 1-4 week outlook.
Great British Pound - Anticipate upside for a 1-3 week outlook.
Japanese Yen - Anticipate downside for a 2-8 week outlook.
Australian Dollar - Anticipate slight upside for a 1-3 month outlook.
Canadian Dollar - Neutral while recognizing it has sharp downside risk with a 2-8 week outlook.
EURUSD - Bullish - 1-3 weeks
GBPUSD - Bullish - 1-2 weeks
EURJPY - Bullish - 2-6 weeks
GBPJPY - Bullish - 2-4 weeks
AUDUSD - Bullish - 1-3 months
USDCAD - Bullish 2-4 weeks
GBPCAD - Bullish 1-3 months
USDSEK - Bearish 1-3 months
USDHUF - Bearish 1-3 months
Stock Market Indexes
Dow Jones Industrial Average - Initiated a corner breakout from all time highs, in this phase of the market cycle this means short-selling or hedging is advisable with probabilities favoring significant downside from current prices with a 1-3 month outlook.
S&P 500 - See above “Dow Jones Industrial Average”.
NASDAQ - See above “Dow Jones Industrial Average”; with probabilities favoring even more significant downside compared to the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
FTSE 100 - Bearish outlook 1-3 weeks.
Shanghai Composite Index - Neutral outlook 1-3 months.
Individual Corporate Stocks
AAPL (Apple) - Distributing under highs, momentum failing. Probabilities favor downside from current prices with a 2-12 week outlook.
MSFT (Microsoft) - Prices flattened to end the week slightly above June 24th all time highs. Upside likely to be extremely limited from today’s quote 138.9 while probabilities favor downside with a 2-8 week outlook.
AMZN (Amazon) - Breached May 3rd all time highs this week and began distributing the past 2 days. Probabilities favor downside in the 2-8 week outlook. A short-term trade opportunity has been presented to sell from quote $2,011 targeting $1,937 (3.8% difference) with a 1-3 week outlook.
PTR (Petro China) - Probabilities favor upside with a 1-6 month outlook as it seems to have not priced in the boom in Crude Oil rendering it undervalued. There is a trade opportunity present but this trades value may be diminished as it is poised to rally while the broader market is due to pull back due to speculators taking profits. An advisable defensive hold.
XOM (Exxon Mobil) - Neutral as it is under highs but posted substantial gains in the most recent 2-month period.
JNJ (Johnson & Johnson) - Recent selloff from highs hints at US stock markets to broadly take profits.
F (Ford) - Market cap and relative price combined render it a good stock to hold defensively in expectation of a broader US stock market sell off with a 1-6 month outlook.
HMC (Honda Motor Co) - See above (Ford), it’s a similar scenario and may pair well with F for diversification.
BTC-USD (Bitcoin in US Dollars) - Overvalued with a quote of $11,901 and a market cap of $212-BLN. Bearish 1-6 month outlook ultimately targeting $8,000 for a whopping 48% difference.
FB (Facebook) - Near all time highs from July 2018 will offer great resistance and with it a short-selling opportunity. With a market cap bloated at $580-BLN at quote $204.87 the upside risk may be more limited than the NASDAQ Composite Index.