GBPUSD target 1.27 quote 1.256 for a 1.1% difference.
Duration 1-6 weeks.
GBPUSD target 1.27 reached from original quote of 1.256 for a 1.1% difference.
The target closed in 2 days; relative to the 7-42 day target.
Current quote 1.2708. Previous highs 1.2723 today.
Closing time.
June 24th.
Russell 2000 leads US stock indexes on the downside after the Dow 30 opened up.
Dow 30, NASDAQ and S&P 500 remain mostly flat (and down) to close this Monday.
Gold remains up and steady.
Bear sign for the NASDAQ, S&P 500 and Russell 2000. Outlook 1-3 weeks. Downside expectations are around 5% from latest quotes, Russell 2000 quoted $1,532.
June 28th, 2019
USD short trade is back on, EUR pullback much slighter than I anticipated after my target was hit surprisingly quickly in a specific thread I made about it this month (June). The USDCNY looks weak on the 1-month chart. The CAD is paired with the USD short as well as a hedge. The JPY short hedge is ongoing from another thread this month. Itās time to gear up again. Also time to take some profits on short majors vs. exotics; including South African Rand, Turkish Lira, Brazilian Real and the Indian Rupee.
Bullish - EUR and GBP
Bearish - USD, JPY and CAD
Outlook - 2-12 weeks
EURUSD - Buy - Target: 1.145 - Quote: 1.138 - Difference: 0.6%
EURJPY - Buy - Target: 123.5 - Quote: 122.6 - Difference: 0.7%
EURCAD - Buy - Target: 1.5 - Quote: 1.49 - Difference: 0.6%
GBPJPY - Buy - Target: 138.5 - Quote: 136.9 - Difference: 1.1%
GBPCAD - Buy - Target: 1.695 - Quote: 1.665 - Difference: 1.8%
PS: Iām still figuring a new content format out. I havenāt transitioned to it yet.
July 2nd 2019
XAUUSD (Gold - US Dollar) looks good to short sell after selling into an intra-day bounce.
Quote XAUUSD $1,406 with a target to sell to $1,380 for a 1.8% difference. Duration 1-30 days.
June 28th QUOTE
June 9th
Prices improved dramatically in the past 11 days. Time to double across the board.
7 days in and bear signs (positive for XAUUSD short-sell outlook) continue to mount.
GBPUSD target 1.264 quote 1.252 0.9% difference. Duration 1-6 weeks.
July 11th
Macro-market difficulties with current Forex pricing
CAD, AUD, CHF, JPY rallied in the short-term but prices are still risking relative upside in the long-term making the selection for short-sell opportunities more narrow.
July 12th, guidance as a trinket for this content format still being in itsā unfinished limbo phaseā¦ Expect a more organized, useful and uniform format in the future; eventually.
Commodities
XAUUSD (Gold - US Dollars) - Quote $1,415. Anticipate downside towards $1,375-$1,340 which is a 3%-5% difference. Reason being 5-year charts makes it apparent itsā upside has extended fully, distribution near highs and a consolidation pattern marked by lower lows on the 30-day chart makes it apparent this trend has probably reached itsā zenith and is poised to pull back.
Brent Crude Oil in US Dollars - Neutral outlook with probabilities favoring upside for a 1-6 month outlook.
Foreign Currency Exchange
US Dollar - Anticipate downside for a 1-3 week outlook.
Euro - Anticipate upside (contrary to US Dollar) for a 1-4 week outlook.
Great British Pound - Anticipate upside for a 1-3 week outlook.
Japanese Yen - Anticipate downside for a 2-8 week outlook.
Australian Dollar - Anticipate slight upside for a 1-3 month outlook.
Canadian Dollar - Neutral while recognizing it has sharp downside risk with a 2-8 week outlook.
EURUSD - Bullish - 1-3 weeks
GBPUSD - Bullish - 1-2 weeks
EURJPY - Bullish - 2-6 weeks
GBPJPY - Bullish - 2-4 weeks
AUDUSD - Bullish - 1-3 months
USDCAD - Bullish 2-4 weeks
GBPCAD - Bullish 1-3 months
USDSEK - Bearish 1-3 months
USDHUF - Bearish 1-3 months
Stock Market Indexes
Dow Jones Industrial Average - Initiated a corner breakout from all time highs, in this phase of the market cycle this means short-selling or hedging is advisable with probabilities favoring significant downside from current prices with a 1-3 month outlook.
S&P 500 - See above āDow Jones Industrial Averageā.
NASDAQ - See above āDow Jones Industrial Averageā; with probabilities favoring even more significant downside compared to the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
FTSE 100 - Bearish outlook 1-3 weeks.
Shanghai Composite Index - Neutral outlook 1-3 months.
Individual Corporate Stocks
AAPL (Apple) - Distributing under highs, momentum failing. Probabilities favor downside from current prices with a 2-12 week outlook.
MSFT (Microsoft) - Prices flattened to end the week slightly above June 24th all time highs. Upside likely to be extremely limited from todayās quote 138.9 while probabilities favor downside with a 2-8 week outlook.
AMZN (Amazon) - Breached May 3rd all time highs this week and began distributing the past 2 days. Probabilities favor downside in the 2-8 week outlook. A short-term trade opportunity has been presented to sell from quote $2,011 targeting $1,937 (3.8% difference) with a 1-3 week outlook.
PTR (Petro China) - Probabilities favor upside with a 1-6 month outlook as it seems to have not priced in the boom in Crude Oil rendering it undervalued. There is a trade opportunity present but this trades value may be diminished as it is poised to rally while the broader market is due to pull back due to speculators taking profits. An advisable defensive hold.
XOM (Exxon Mobil) - Neutral as it is under highs but posted substantial gains in the most recent 2-month period.
JNJ (Johnson & Johnson) - Recent selloff from highs hints at US stock markets to broadly take profits.
F (Ford) - Market cap and relative price combined render it a good stock to hold defensively in expectation of a broader US stock market sell off with a 1-6 month outlook.
HMC (Honda Motor Co) - See above (Ford), itās a similar scenario and may pair well with F for diversification.
BTC-USD (Bitcoin in US Dollars) - Overvalued with a quote of $11,901 and a market cap of $212-BLN. Bearish 1-6 month outlook ultimately targeting $8,000 for a whopping 48% difference.
FB (Facebook) - Near all time highs from July 2018 will offer great resistance and with it a short-selling opportunity. With a market cap bloated at $580-BLN at quote $204.87 the upside risk may be more limited than the NASDAQ Composite Index.
July 18th
NASDAQ going down, apparent by 1-month and 5-day charts.
NASDAQ quote $8,179 sell target $7,950 for a 2.8% difference with a duration of 1-12 weeks.
Still working on creating a content formatā¦
July 18th
Direction 1-12 weeks; an easy and risk-averse hedge opportunity.
BUY
GBPCAD
GBPAUD
GBPJPY
GBPUSD
EURCAD
EURAUD
EURJPY
EURUSD
Iāve realized short oil exposure seems risky. That goes as well for related Canadian Dollar.
Close EURCAD, GBPCAD.
July 18th
July 30th
Take profits EURAUD, around 1.8%.
This hedge didnāt work out very well, it was intended short-term against long-term alignments (out of range) so better off closing early then later; which is usually against my usual operating procedure.
Remaining
GBPJPY
GBPUSD
EURUSD
EURJPY
Duration extended 2-12 weeks.
July 31st, 2019
US Dollar is reminding me of Euro action before it crashed from 1.37 to 1.10 in 2014-15. Iām familiar with instruments resisting reversal with corners, this goes especially for instruments related to USD.
Iām much more inclined bearish the US Dollar Index with a long-term outlook now that the Dow Jones Industrial Index looks geared up to sell, the USD is thrashing like the NASDAQ did July 2018 (a year ago to date) before it had itsā biggest correction in 5 years (bottom $6,600 December 2018 vs. quote $8,100). The Fed is now on course to reduce overnight benchmarks (lowered rates a quarter point today), making it obvious that the financial market is quite saturated and over-due for correction.
Bearish US Dollar, broadly, with a 1-3 year outlook.
Bearish NASDAQ with a 1-6 month outlook.
Call off XAUUSD short exposure.
Gold surprised me with strength, Iām afraid itās going to corner.
August 2nd - XAUUSD quote $1,442. Long-term outlook favors upside to $1,500-$1,600.
August 5th
That paid quickly.
From quote $8,100 5 days ago, quote today $7,800.
August 8th
Now that the dust has settled from the pullback.
Trade based on the NASDAQā¦ etc. rebound.
Bullish AUDUSD quote 0.68 buy target 0.69 for a 1.4% difference.
Bullish AAL.L (Anglo American Plc) quote 1,842 target 2,000 for an 8% difference.
Bearish XAUUSD (Gold - USD) quote $1,496 target $1,460 for a 2% difference.
Duration for all three trades is 1-10 weeks.
AUGUST 8th, a funny hedge idea that is extremely conservative as is diversified and likely to work based on quotes TODAY. Funny because itās probable to hit major ~3% gains in a 3-9 month time-frame. No stop loss necessary. Only take-profit limits and expiration dates necessary within a 1-9 month time-frame. Multiply profits with leverage as is reasonable. Adjust leverage as per instruments based on long-term range differences.
Estimate - 10X leverage (aggregate) is conservative enough if positions are managed. 20X leverage is reasonable. 1-9 month capital gain may range 20%-50%, or 40%-100% on 20X leverage. Likeliest 2-4 months. On the way to 200% YTD returns?
USDJPY buy (US Dollar - Japanese Yen)
AUDUSD buy (Australian Dollar - US Dollar)
AUDJPY buy (Australian Dollar - Japanese Yen)
EURJPY buy (Euro - Japanese Yen)
GBPJPY buy (Great British Pound - Japanese Yen)
GBPUSD buy (Great British Pound - US Dollar)
NZDUSD buy (New Zealand Dollar - US Dollar)
NZDJPY buy (New Zealand Dollar - Japanese Yen)
USDRUB sell (Russian Ruble - US Dollar)
USDZAR sell (South African Rand - US Dollar)
USDSEK sell (Swedish Krona - US Dollar)
USDNOK sell (Norwegian Kroner - US Dollar)