Latest Research from FOREX.com

EUR/JPY in focus as stocks tumble.

Chart source: eSignal and FOREX.com

The Week Ahead: US Tax Reform, Central Bank Speeches and Policy Meeting Minutes

The week ahead will be slower in terms of economic data than the past week. Contributing to this slowdown will be the major Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S. Aside from speeches by heads of key central banks, including the European Central Bank, Reserve Bank of Australia, Federal Reserve, and Swiss National Bank, the week will be dominated by the release of minutes from several central bank meetings. These minutes will be from the RBA, Fed, and ECB. Also included in the week’s schedule will be US durable goods orders, New Zealand retail sales, Eurozone services and manufacturing PMI data, UK GDP, and Canadian retail sales.

Get the full story http://on.forex.com/2mAOaB4

NFP Preview: Will November US jobs data extend the dollar rebound?

The official US jobs data for November will be reported on Friday morning by the US Department of Labor, and consensus expectations are pointing to a likely continuation of the strong job creation that has prevailed through much of the year (earlier weather disruptions notwithstanding).

Get the full story http://on.forex.com/2iBYeVr

SPECIAL WEBINAR: NFP Release

Join our analysts during the release of the US Non-Farm Payroll report (8am to 9am EST) for instant analysis of the numbers and what they may mean for the markets.

Sign up now http://on.forex.com/2AnUPF5

The Week Ahead: Weak USD, Strong EUR, and BoC-Driven CAD in Focus

The latter half of the past week saw a resumption of pronounced bearish sentiment hit the US dollar once again, as concerns over persistently weak US inflation (reinforced by lagging producer price data), strength in the euro, and rumors of China rethinking its US debt purchases helped lead to a sharp, extended sell-off for the greenback.

Get the full story http://on.forex.com/2r4hUIX

The Week Ahead: Key Central Bank Decisions (BoJ, ECB) in Focus

The past week featured some key economic events, including the Bank of Canada’s interest rate and policy decision, and Australia’s latest employment data release. Stealing the limelight from these events, however, was drama surrounding a possible US government shutdown if lawmakers fail to reach an agreement by Friday night, as well as a sharp plunge in the price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies due to reports of tightening regulations in Asia.

The week ahead will likely feature heightened volatility for currency markets, depending in part on developments in US government efforts to avert a shutdown, as well as two major central bank decisions from the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank.

Get the full story http://on.forex.com/2DrKp8j

NFP Recap and Week Ahead

The combination of strong job creation and unexpectedly robust wage growth prompted sharp market reactions, as anticipation of higher inflation and interest rates continued to build substantially. US Treasury yields extended their recent rise to new long-term highs, and the US dollar spiked sharply while gold prices plunged. US equity markets suffered a significant hit, extending the sell-off that began early this week on fears of accelerated interest rate increases.

Whether the jobs report’s substantially positive impact on the US dollar on Friday results in any bonafide rebound and recovery for the ailing currency remains to be seen. However, the anticipation of higher interest rates was strong and increasing well before Friday’s jobs data, and it still failed to provide the greenback with any respite from its persistent weakness.

Get the full story http://on.forex.com/2DVGEZI

1 Like

Gold undermined as rising yields offset support from stock market sell-off

Get the full story http://on.forex.com/2EczDQv

1 Like

The Week Ahead: All eyes on inflation and interest rates

The roller coaster ride that equity markets took into correction territory this past week has been characterized mostly by dizzying plummets and much less so by hopeful rebounds. Key to the wild swings was exceptionally inflated market volatility that reflected sharply elevated fear as the short-volatility trade that had prevailed for several years rapidly unwound in the span of just a couple of days.

Helping to spark this high volatility were increased concerns about rising inflation and interest rates as signaled by surging government bond yields, notably in the U.S. Exacerbating these concerns on a global basis, the Bank of England issued a warning on Thursday that interest rates may increase more quickly than expected. When combined with other major central banks that are seen as actively moving towards policy tightening, including the US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank, this signal from the BoE further supported market expectations that the end of easy monetary policy on a global basis is likely impending.

Get the full story on http://on.forex.com/2H4YffQ

1 Like

Week Ahead: New Fed Chair in focus as markets mull interest rate trajectory

The US dollar was still seeking direction while equity markets bounced back on Friday after a week of persistently volatile trading, as interest rates and Federal Reserve speculation continued to dominate headlines. The Fed again took center stage this past week, with Wednesday’s release of minutes from the central bank’s last FOMC meeting in late January, when interest rates were kept unchanged as expected.

Markets whipsawed severely on the release of those minutes, as investors initially took the Fed’s message to be somewhat dovish – boosting stocks and pressuring the dollar – but then digested the hawkish aspects of the minutes, reversing the initial market reactions.

Get the full story http://on.forex.com/2EQtlpP

1 Like

Are investors overreacting to Cohn’s resignation?

Investors panicked in response to Gary Cohn’s unexpected – although not entirely surprising – announcement that he’s resigning from his post as Donald Trump’s top economic adviser late in the day yesterday. The market’s reaction suggests investors are now even more concerned that with one of Trump administration’s strongest free trade advocates gone, that the US trade policy will head further into protectionist territory.

Investors are wondering how Cohn’s resignation will impact US trade policies and whether it will ignite a trade war, and what that may mean for monetary policy. Will Donald Trump now enact those hefty tariffs on steel and aluminium imports?

Get the full story http://on.forex.com/2Hdml7b

NFP Forecast and Potential USD Reaction

For live coverage of the US Non-Farm Payroll report and real time analysis of what the numbers may mean for monetary policy expectations and the US dollar moving forward, join our Head of Research, James Chen, in a live webinar starting at 8 AM New York time on Friday, March 9th http://on.forex.com/2oZG7M5

Aside from renewed market turbulence stemming in part from ongoing political concerns in the US, positive news from the UK and EU on Monday regarding progress on a new Brexit transition deal prompted a strong rally for the British pound.

Will GBP/USD rise to re-test highs on Brexit transition deal and BoE?

Get the full story http://on.forex.com/2popv1r

1 Like

EUR/USD climbs as ECB officials fuel end of QE speculation

Ahead of next week’s major central bank meetings and key data releases, there have been some interesting moves in the markets with the EUR/USD in particular showing relative strength. Although the Federal Reserve is almost certain to raise interest rates next week, it is the European Central Bank which all of a sudden is looking to be the more anticipated meeting.

Get the full story EUR/USD climbs as ECB officials fuel end of QE speculation

EUR/USD: “World Cup Week” for Economic Data

The euro is the strongest major currency so far in World Cup kickoff week, perhaps reflecting the fact that three of the four biggest favorites for the tournament hail from the Eurozone.

More likely though, EUR/USD traders are keying in on a week chock full of key economic developments to help shape trade in the world’s most widely-traded currency pair:

  • Tuesday: German ZEW Survey (9:00 GMT) & US CPI (12:30 GMT). The headlines out of the Trump-Kim Nuclear Summit could also have an impact on all markets.
  • Wednesday: US PPI (12:30 GMT) & FOMC Interest Rate Decision/Statement/Press Conference (18:00-19:30 GMT)
  • Thursday: ECB Meeting/Press Conference (11:45- 13:30 GMT) & US Retail Sales (12:30 GMT)
  • Friday: Eurozone Final CPI (9:00 GMT) & US Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization (13:15 GMT)

Get the full story EUR/USD: “World Cup Week” for Economic Data

USD/JPY hit by dollar weakness and BoJ speculation

For now though the USD/JPY is clinging onto an important bullish trend line after the rally came to an abrupt halt around the 113 handle last week.

While a couple of important support levels such as 112.05 and 111.35 have broken down, the USD/JPY is yet to break its market structure of higher highs and higher lows. But if the most recent low at 110.80 breaks, then this would be a bearish development in the short-term outlook.

Get the full story USD/JPY hit by dollar weakness and BoJ speculation

Super Week Ahead: BOE, BOJ, FED and NFP

Here is a summary of next week’s data highlights:

  • Tuesday: China manufacturing PMI, BOJ and Eurozone CPI
  • Wednesday: New Zealand employment figures (late Tuesday BST/EDT); ADP private sector payrolls report, ISM Manufacturing PMI and FOMC
  • Thursday: BOE rate decision (hike expected) and inflation report
  • Friday: Aussie retail sales, UK services PMI, NFP and ISM services PMI

Get the full story Super Week Ahead: BOE, BOJ, FED and NFP

Tonight’s BOJ meeting could well be one of the more interesting of this week’s events…and no, that’s not a typo!

Japan’s central bank has left its primary interest rate essentially unchanged in the -0.1% to 0.00% range since late 2010, preferring to conduct monetary policy through its asset purchase program (QQE).

https://www.forex.com/~/media/forex-image-import/usdjpymw07302018.png
Source: TradingView and FOREX.com

Some market participants believe this program of stock and bond buying could be meaningfully changed for the first time since it was enacted in 2016.

Get the full story https://on.forex.com/2LEcvCg

NFP Preview: Tired King Dollar Requires Big Beat

https://www.forex.com/~/media/forex-image-import/180802-dxy-large.png
Source: TradingView and FOREX.com. Please note, this product is not available to US clients

The consensus expectations for Friday’s headline non-farm payrolls data point to around 190,000 jobs added in July, after June’s forecast-beating 213,000 print. The July unemployment rate is expected to have dropped back to 3.9% after it unexpectedly rose to 4.0% in June from 3.8% previously. In terms of wage growth, average hourly earnings are expected to have increased by 0.3% after last month’s slightly weaker-than-expected 0.2% increase.

Get the full story https://on.forex.com/2n7VzoY

Dollar extends post NFP gains

https://www.forex.com/~/media/forex-image-import/180806-uj-large.png
Source: TradingView and FOREX.com

The dollar has remained bid against most currencies post Friday’s US jobs report. The greenback rose on Friday in reaction to the mixed-bag nonfarm payrolls report which showed a weaker-than-expected headline number, but that was offset by positive revisions to the previous reports and a decent but expected rise in average hourly earnings figure.

Get the full story https://on.forex.com/2LZ4Eze