LeRoadRunner's Trading journal

Ok it’s look like though you will eventually make more money selling tools than making money trading forex. In my opinion . Couple great books to read that you probably already know about are : Trading in the Zone and The Daily Trading Coach. …101 Lessons for Becoming Your Own Trading Psychologist …

Tabiuslee

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LOL, we shall see!

Thank you for those books, I did not know about them. I’ll look them up

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you can get those and others just google PDFDRIVE You will find any and all the top 10 Forex Books to read on this site and many others. Enjoy :slight_smile:

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2020-07-06 Expert Advisor Dev and Testing (continued)

I took last week off, Happy Canada Day and Happy Independence Day everyone.

Strategies

Engufing: Ready to try it with real money.

Box Breakout: Still refining, to not be so aggressive and let profit runs, I think I can soon run it with real money, with visual monitoring. It does enter trades which I visualize that should be avoided. Hard to to turn what I see into coding, have to think about it.

TRADES

None.

I did play Friday in demo mode, (the day before July 4th), which made me realize it is pointless to trade before a big US holiday. directions were weak at best.

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2020-07-13 Strategy Tester results comparison

I was quite busy last week, one of the things that I wanted is that ability to compare test results between runs in Strategy Testers. Example, what effects on each trade, which ones disappears by adding by a simple code change, say such adding waiting for confirmation. I searched but did not find what I needed. So, I spent the week writing a program that converts the HTML output of tester to CSV (which can be analyzed in Excel). The next step was to add comparison between runs, I should be done with that part soon.

Strategies

Engufing: Ready to try it with real money. Ok, time to fund the real account with a small amount.

Box Breakout: Still refining.

TRADES

None

2020-07-20 Reset time

I am getting a bit discouraged, strategies are not panning out. I went back to basics and implemented the So Easy Its Ridiculous system, backtesting is ok and barely good. When I optimize parameters, yes it does better, but different for each pair. I am worried that “optimizing” is actually “curve fitting” to the past, which makes it difficult to trust.

I do have 2 weeks vacation coming up, and hopefully, this gives me a reset, and to be able to step back, otherwise, frankly, I’m a bit discouraged right now at Forex trading. I was so excited that I could program mechanical systems which would take emotions out, but I have not had much success in demo at all.

TTYL!

2020-09-14 Back after a big break

I am back, I had a few weeks of vacation, did continue to test my systems and funded a small amount for Live Trading (more below).

I implemented the HLHB Trend Catcher system as an EA and did back testing.

I did modify the 2 MA she uses as per my backtesting, and right now only follow GBPUSD and EURUSD.

It might be that the systems I was implementing were mostly on the 5MIN, but the results on the 1Hour are positive and I am willing to try some seed money.

So, thats for the background, now for the real trading.

TRADES

2 Trades last week

  • 2020-09-09 BUY EURUSD at 1.18172 stopped out at 1.18401 for +22 pips
  • 2020-09-10 SELL GBPUSD at 1.29704 reached a target of 1.28187 for +150 pips

Note, altho I created an EA, which runs in the Demo environment, I do place the trades manually in PROD. I do not want to let the EA run by itself yet. Too bad because for example I missed a good opportunity yesterday, but I do not want to place trades that I cannot follow live. So, now I have to wait for the right conditions to occur again, which is fine.

Do you guys run EA in live? or do manual trades based on EAs?

2020-09-21 Rough week in LIVE

Well, I continued to trade LIVE with Real Money with the smallest lot that I can, in the hope that I can learn some lessons.

TRADES

Entry Date Time Type Period Size Symbol Entry Exit Date xTime Exit Pips Notes_________________________________________
-142.3 Big loss for week, tho in these small lots, its about $15 to learn
September 18, 2020 19:00 SELL H1 0.01 GBPUSD 1.29468 September 18, 2020 22:31 1.29257 21.1 Worked as per system, closed when cross happened
September 17, 2020 22:17 BUY H1 0.01 GBPUSD 1.29645 September 18, 2020 19:00 1.29468 -17.7 Entered as per rule. Exited as per rule. Was sitting with a 20 Pip profit for awhile, was tempted to raise SL, but followed system.
September 17, 2020 15:09 SELL H1 0.01 GBPUSD 1.28742 September 17, 2020 17:30 1.2988 -113.8 Ouch, entry correct, sold as per rule on crossback.
September 16, 2020 15:19 BUY H1 0.01 EURUSD 1.18683 September 16, 2020 16:17 1.18364 -31.9 Should not have entered, two hours passed crossover. Was believing that longer timeframe of up would prevails, hit S/L

Overall thoughts: I think, even with the losses, I am getting a bit of a feel for GBPUSD ane EURUSD, hopefully this will help longer term.

First off, I am glad you are trading live with tiny positions and not training on demo with no emotions for your learning. You will learn much faster and won’t have that problem that demo has where you “are trying to get everything perfect” and never start for real, that’s what i teach all my students.

As for your trades, I’m not sure exactly what your version of the system you are trying to trade but your losses are more than 100 pips. And your profit was only 21? Why so little?

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Thank you for the feedback,

I am using the HLHB Trend Catcher system (where I have tuned the EMAs a bit), which uses a 150pips stop. Yes, that might be much too wide. When both EMA crosses again you sell, which is why I had such a lost.

As for the so little, I did not get on the big trends (but on the whipsaws instead), as the crossovers happened outside of my hours. Even currently a nice big trend started for EURUSD and GBPUSB, both started Sunday, so I missed the boat. I have to wait for a crossover to happen. I am not brave enough to let the system run on its own, I like to monitor it. But that made me miss a move of about 125pips on EURUSD already.

Anything else that you teach you students?

These types of methods all have the same issues. Firstly, because you are always delayed and late to the wave, your stop-loss needs to be greater and the greater your stop, the more profit you must go for to be able to have proper reward to risk ratio. And the higher you target, of course the lower your probability of reaching it is. Also because you are getting in late, you risk geting stopped-out by stop-hunts in a loss before that major move does happen. If becomes challenging to secure profit as well for the same reason. Even though it’s thoughtless, you are stressed to maintain very high success rates and it’s easily broken. That is why if you look into history it doesn’t work on “certain pairs.”

As for what i teach, too much can be said for here but when it comes to SMA, I teach the limitations of such methodical methods like these and rather encourage students to read the charts not force a pattern/method with set TP and SL onto the charts. I teach a wholelistic approach. Volume is king, the left is your friend more than the trend etc… etc…

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2020-09-28 Another losing week

I continued to trade HLHB Catcher system, with my tuned parameters, again without success. This week, the lost is 107 pips.

I need to step back again, maybe I am giving up too fast, it was working well in demo, but so far only 1 of 7 trades were positive.

TRADES

Entry Date Strategy Time Type Period Size Symbol Entry Exit Date xTime Exit Pips Notes
-107
September 24, 2020 HLHB_Catcher 21.14 BUY H1 0.01 EURUSD 1.1676 September 25, 2020 14:45 1.16412 -34.8 Another false breakout
September 23, 2020 HLHB_Catcher 23:00 SELL H1 0.01 GBPUSD 1.27172 September 24, 2020 15:06 1.27422 -25 Was in green for most of the trend, but it when it changed it was fast and against the trade. System crossed again to close.
September 23, 2020 HLHB_Catcher 18:22 BUY H1 0.01 GBPUSD 1.27644 September 23, 2020 23:00 1.27172 -47.2 Did not last long, and reversed quickly. System crossed

Too many false breakouts, I have tried many confirmation factors, but the false breakout still occur too much. I have to think about it again.

There will no live trade this week, as I need to review and lick my wounds.

I know it can be frustrating, this is what i was telling you earlier. What confirmations have you tried?

I have tried, ADX, MACD, Stochastics, RSI, and even combos of Stoch+RSI, ADX+RSI.

So, I think, I’ll throw that strategy away for now, tho, I’ll keep monitoring it.

Going back to basics, but I have a simple idea that looks promising right now.

I read somewhere (forget where), if I can have a simple strategy that gives a 50% failure rate (trades), I can easily improve slightly from that. So trying something that I started with a Risk=Target, with some confirmation as above, I can get slightly better.

Not sure, if I am explaining it well.

Yes it’s likely none of those will help. Before you throw the strategy away, I have some ideas that might help you. I only look for serious people to help, there are too many traders that are only “interested” and not committed which is never enough to compete in this business. The fact that you are willing to track and journal shows your commitment so my door is open to you if you want sit down 1-on-1 with me for a free 1-hour consultation.

Thank you, really appreciated, I’ll PM you.