[QUOTE=TonyCanuck;233786]Even a ranging market is made up of smaller trends.
No it isn’t, snaphhot of ranging market
Not a trend in sight.
[QUOTE=TonyCanuck;233786]
Statistics tell us that the “herd” doesn’t do so well.
I think you’ll find it does
Two questions:
[ol]
[li]When you enter a trade you dont have a profit target and thats fine … but how do you set your stop loss ?
[/li][li]How do you separate end of trend with just a simple momentary retracement?
[/li][/ol]
[QUOTE=purplepatchforex;233865][QUOTE=TonyCanuck;233786]Even a ranging market is made up of smaller trends.
No it isn’t, snaphhot of ranging market
Not a trend in sight.
Drop down a couple tfs and you’ll see a few trends there.
I think you’ll find it does
I think you know I was referring to the 95% failure rate.
I’ll probably start a new thread at some point discussing the details of my methods.
If I drop down a timeframe I will see trends and ranges, and if I drop down again I will see the same, so by definition there will be a section that is always part of a range on all timeframes, proving that your statement is simply incorrect.
The so called ‘95% failure rate’, is not a herd, it is a large number of separate individuals unable to trade forex profitably and not a herd following each other. You are more likely to find a ‘herd’ of trades in the city following each other and all making a profit, because if they weren’t making a profit they wouldn’t be there.
There doesn’t seem to be a point of discussing this any further as your arguments are making less sense as we go. The fact is, trends exist, if you can’t see one, drop down a time frame or two. If there is still no trend in sight, then this probably isn’t a very good time to be trading no matter what method your using. A market without a trend is noise and it’s hard to profit from noise.
Are you trying to say that everyone in the market is making a profit?
I’m beginning to wonder about you Purplepatch.
Or up a few 
absolutely
No I’m not, but to try and understand your argument better I’ve run through the thread again and I think I get it!
This is what you’re are saying
I think you’re still a bit confused, so I’ll summarize everything right here. Nice manipulative editing by the way, you should work for fox. Anyway, here it is:
The market can be predicted with some accuracy for a period of time. This is what gives the impression to some people that they will actually be able to profit from market predictions alone. The fact is, the market, over an extended period of time (which is what actually matters), is not predictable. I say there [B]might[/B] be people who can predict the market with 80% accuracy because anything is possible but not likely. The market trends and ranges, both trends and ranges are made up of smaller trends and ranges. If there is no trend, anywhere, then it’s probably not wise to be trading at that time.
The simple fact is, over time you will see your win% drop steadily and stay between 40% and 60%. Argue all you want, just give it some time.
Ironically, I’ve only seen mine increase over the last few years.
Here’s a monkey wrench for you.
At some point in time, [B]EVERY[/B] trade will be a winner.
And, at some point in time [B]EVERY[/B] trade will be a loser.
I firmly believe it is possible to win 99 to 100 percent of your trades.
And you could do so using just a coin flip.
It’s not strength of entry, it’s all in the money management. This game is simple. Look at a chart long enough, and it starts to make sense. It’s a timing play, and nothing more Find your momentum mover, and you have the keys to the kingdom. Figure out how to make it pay off biggest with the littlest, and you’ll be far better off than you can imagine.
I’m ready for the flames 
And NO I didn’t lose my marbles! 
And I ain’t lost any trades lately either;)
I’m not sure what you mean, but i’m curious to hear more.
No argument here.
Ultimately is all about POSITIVE EXPECTANCY.
I agree most systems fall between 40 - 60% range those with greater than 1:1.
For all the 80 - 100% win rate system, I would love to see the initial entry parameters, eg stop loss & profit targets.
I really wish traders would talk in expectancy because that is the true measure.
If a new forum reader saw two new topics, one said 90% win rate, the other 10% win rate, which system would they blindly follow.
Now when they read the fine print,
90% system is 5 pip target, 50 pip loss - Negative Expectancy
10% system is 50 pip target, 5 pip loss - Positive Expectancy
Which one would they choose? More importantly which one should they choose?
I don’t know if I’ve made this up or just learned it somewhere, my point is that it is a nice phrase and it helps me remember it, so maybe it helps somebody.
“Traders use to get married to profits too quickly”
Stop getting married so quick and there’s more chance your profits will run.