London Breakout Strategy - 1H Timeframe Modified

Hi,

Yes, it’s a loss if there is a minus sign.

Note in my own backtesting system I usually adjust the pips to balance them to the EUR/USD to be able to evalute the gains.

However, here the talk seems to just be pure pips, so I posted the pure result. You may get different results, depending on your account spreads, costs etc.

Regarding the gamble:

My system allows me to specify X number of random trades for the tested period. So if during a backtest a strategy makes 500 trades, I can ask the system to make 500 random trades in the same period, using the same SL/TP strategy as whatever is being tested.

The reason to this is to understand how good a strategy is vs just randomly trading.

In the case above it was no better, and in fact often worse.

The random testing has proved on of the most valuable things to me.

To give you a plain example:

Everyone, really almost everyone seems to state that you must trade in the direction of the trend - so Buy when above the EMA200 or the EMA 200, 100, 50 are aligned or something similar.

When I fix the random trader to only trade in the ‘direction of the trend’ as everyone says, the result is always much worse.

So whenever I see a new indicator or strategy I always use the random tester as a base like this.

Long winded answer, HTH

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Presumably your test followed the original post’s rules at a 1:1.5 rr. Manually testing I’ve found that this doesn’t work in general.
I’m getting the feeling that this strategy would work best in certain overarching periods in a given currency, rather than actually having an edge day to day.
That’s just my feeling though. What use is that.

Yes, it did. Thorough testing is important.

Thanks for Sharing Your Story With Us!
I would Suggest sticking to Only 1/2 pairs to begin with, Ideally GBP/JPY, GBP/USD…
Understand the Fundamental Side of only GBP. Because during London Session only News Concerned to GBP would Come out… You can use it also as a confluence…
Also A more Ideal approach would be to rather zoom out on the chart and look for a break and the target with the help of Structure!

Would Love to get connected with you as I am trading the same method, I take 10pips profit fist then go BREAK EVEN and let the rest of my position do its thing for me risk free.

Regards,

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Probably a bit harsh to say a strategy is a gamble when the London Breakout has been around for a long long time. It’s only a gamble if you don’t know what you are doing.

Does your backtest “system” take into account that trades are closed at the end of each session? It’s not waited out until TP or SL is hit. Sometimes a trade is in partial profit when closed out this way before it reversed into SL the next session.

On top of that, your list shows currencies that you should not even be touched for this strategy, like CADJPY, NZDCAD, and so on. Why would you trade these during London?

Backtesting using a system is great so that you don’t have to manually do it, but it also takes out a lot of potentials and credits of the original strategy by putting it from your perspective. I can say that as I know traders that are friends of mine and including myself are profiting from this strategy.

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I tested a range of pairs out of curiosity.

FWIW I just checked the volume of CADJPY and NZDCAD yesterday, and the highest volume seems to be after the London session opens, but hey, what do I know.

“Does your backtest “system” take into account that trades are closed at the end of each session”

Of course. I tested as you described.

I wrote above, the basic idea seems good. With some tuning, I found some improvements.

However, next time, just post that you don’t want people investing time into testing your system unless they agree with you.

I’ll certainly stop here.

It’s definitely fair that when you backtested you got different results, seems there have been a few people in the thread that have backtested in their own ways to varying degrees of success.
Which is pretty much the message that Cloudninee has put out there from the start - if it works for you then great. He’s always encouraged people to make their own amendments and tests.

I for one will continue to back and forward test this manually as that’s how I’ll be running it if it turns profitable for me. Not sure its necessary/the responsibility of the person that honestly shares what’s been working for them to tell people how they should be investing their time though.

Interested to see whether there have been other evolutions to the system @Cloudninee since your most recent update. How has this last week faired for you?

Thanks for introducing the idea and the ongoing updates!

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did your backtest respect the time shift?

Yes, of course

All data is loaded with tz UTC and converted to London before processing. This is one line with Python.

Hi,
This strategy works for me fine so far. Only change I did that I stop the trade whenever there is reversal of trend. I do not wait for SL or TP or end of session. Regards,

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I’ve found in my tests that often the reversal comes on the hourly very quickly. Are you managing to do this without frequently returning to look at the trade at lower timeframes? Or is that how you’d catch the reversal before it finishes?

Do you have a successful trading system to share with us ?
You seem to know a lot RedeemerOfMen

I wrote about my own experiences in another thread, in the automated trading section.

I don’t know any more than the next person. I decided early on in my trading career to make sure I built a good testing system.

There’s a strange attitude here towards people who challenge hypothesis, especially considering challenges and criticism are what lead to improvement.

From my side, I’ll not be posting here, there’s little benefit for the time invested.

Thank you Redeemer for your reply. I just hoped you might have a simple trading plan or system to share that you had tested.
Took me ages, but found your stuff in Automated trading but sadly, most of it or perhaps all of it is way beyond my small (old) brain.
Looks like you can make profit and best of luck to you.

Take a chill pill and take it easy mate. I didn’t even say that you are wrong, I was just expressing my own opinions as well. If you question my strategy, I have my right to question why you are doing so. If you don’t want to post here any longer, leave.

If you take the time to share a strategy out here just to get someone to come in and tell you your strategy is a gamble, would you be happy? Try to put yourself into other people’s shoes.

I’m not here to keep you happy nor am I here to give a ■■■■ whether you follow my strategy or not. I’m not selling anything nor am I trying to convince anyone that I’m good. But if you jump into a thread of someone sharing something that quite a number of people have found useful just to say it’s not good, then expect to have some questions coming back your way. What else would you expect me to do? Sit back and do nothing?

Well said Cloud.
You can’t be blamed if somebody p1ssed in his cornflakes.

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Hey cloud, are you still sharing the clips for the daily setups that you’re taking? It’s been a while since I have seen one. Felt good to follow them.

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Hey, as mentioned quite a few other times in this post, my circumstances has changed due to work and life commitments around this whole Covid thing, so unfortunately now I am heavily occupied around London open time which means I cannot monitor hourly to take trades. I am now just focusing on my swing/position trading strategy mostly.

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You can try to analyse 1 to 2 pairs first. You can also focus more on the chart and look closely if you find something with the help of the structure. Try doing this on a demo, it will be helpful.

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Hi CloudNinee/Others, I see that last 2-3 weeks this strategy didn’t work well. What is your experience? Any idea why it is happening please? for lesson learnt purpose.