Thanks tommor,
I wasn’t going to write that last post but I just wanted people to know why I haven’t been posting so much recently. I love trading and I love contributing here to the community but I just haven’t had the time or energy of late.
I really appreciate your kind comments.
So sorry to hear your sad news. I hope the doctors are wrong and you beat the horrible thing.
Looking forward to reading about your trading again
Really sorry to hear that news Dan, but I’m glad that you are taking a positive approach.
I have a good friend who, unknown to him and only to his wife, was given 6 to 12 months.
He didn’t have surgery, just chemo, that was in 2006 - and he is still very much alive.
In my own case, coward that I am I didn’t ask for a time frame although I was knowledgeable enough that having come from the bowel and then to lung the outlook wouldn’t be great.
Like you I adopted positivity, viewed cancer as an enemy, refused to be afraid (most of the time).
That was over 13 years back - they quit scanning me 8 years ago - just said if you feel sick come back.
I know cancer takes many forms and affects people in many different ways yet in those years I’ve met more people with similar stories - so I wish you the best of luck in the many, many years ahead.
Hi peterma,
Wow, your story is really inspiring and thank you for taking the time to share it.
To be honest, I am scared but sometimes fear can be a good thing because it can provoke you into taking the action necessary to survive, the radical adaptions I’ve made to my lifestyle since my diagnosis for instance.
I would love to make it to the point where you’re at and, believe me, I’m going to give it my best shot. I hope we both have many more years in front of us.
Thank you for the kind comments chesterjohn. I really appreciate it.
It’s tough to know what to say to people in this situation except that I’m sorry for the unfortunate news.
I have not personally been through cancer, but have dealt with similar health issues leading to tests, biopsies, and ultimately, chemo. I was fortunate and got through it so far.
You are an experienced trader so that says a lot about your personality, so I know you will fight this hard.
Keep pushing ahead and we will keep following your journey.
I’m so sorry to hear about your health journey and how brave you are to share your experience with us.
Please keep us updated on your trading progress, and more importantly, your health journey. You have a community here supporting you every step of the way. Be strong and keep fighting!
Hello, Dan. I’m perplexed to say the least at your current medical situation. Life does spring surprises from less expected angles.
I empathize with you and pray you overcome this challenge. I can imagine how the report must have numbed your hopes and aspirations when it was given initially, but do not give in. You are still in the ring so your hopes and aspirations are safe.
I want to ask. Are you a believer? Like, are you a follower of the Lord Jesus Christ?
Hi @Torchwave
Thanks for the kind words.
I am a Buddhist actually. More precisely, I often describe myself as a Philosophical Buddhist.
What I mean by that is that I don’t devote myself to one particular tradition.
Instead, I’m interested in the wisdom and philosophy contained within the many different Buddhist traditions.
That said, I am currently drawn to the teachings of Nichiren Daishonin and I try to chant daily. It helps me focus and concentrate on what is really most important rather than what may simply seem important in any given moment.
I have come to believe that there are many paths to enlightenment and spirituality. I have respect for all religions and the religious and non-religious alike. As the Buddha himself famously said, ‘Be kind to every living thing, this is the true religion.’
A detailed reply cannot help but be well-understood. I do hope you did not take offense at my enquiry into your religious belief. I do pray you get better with each day and emerge victorious from this challenge.
I look forward to your future journal entries and updates on your prop firm journey.
I have a friend who has lived for many years with your condition - he refuses to be negative and delights in riding his motorbike with gusto.
I am an atheist but have spent many times in a Buddhist country - Cambodia and you can feel the good vibes, which I am sure comes from Buddhism.
I wish you well.
I’m definitely with you and hope you will come out of this. You don’t have to be scared; just keep doing the Little you can do and hope to get better.
Hello, Dan. It’s been quite some time since you updated the thread on your trading progress. Checking up on you and hoping you are doing great.
Hi @Torchwave
I’m well thank you. Thanks for asking.
My new small account challenge will be starting 2nd January. I’ll be posting further details and a new myfxbook link to this second attempt within the next few days.
It’s going to be epic 
You’re welcome. I think that is great news. Will be looking forward to your update, and wishing you success in your challenge. Good to know you are doing fine.
SMALL ACCOUNT CHALLENGE UPDATE
Locked and Loaded!!!
In 2023, a well-known YouTuber known as fxalexg supposedly attempted to flip $100 to $1,000,000.
After quickly failing his first attempt, he deposited another hundred bucks and, second time around, allegedly somehow managed to flip the account to over $300,000 before eventually blowing it. If true, and even though he didn’t reach the million, it was a remarkable feat.
A good while before fxalexg tried flipping a hundred bucks to a million, I made a similar attempt which you can read about above. I started with $250 but only managed to 4X it before certain life events started to take priority. I ended up settling for double my money before cashing out.
My initial plan was to flip the account to $10,000, withdraw some, then flip it again from a larger starting balance, withdraw some more then go for the million. Looking back on that, it seems unnecessarily convoluted. For this second attempt, I’m going straight for the million!
So, I have opened a new account, deposited $100 and linked the account to myfxbook. I’m not quite sure why but fxalexg wasn’t willing to share his myfxbook link. Mine is at the bottom of this post so feel free to check it out!
Along with linking this small account to myfxbook, I have also linked the account to my trade copier. I will be using one of my challenge accounts as the master / copy from account and the small account as my slave / send to account.
My reasoning is simple: I will be using the same strategy to pass the evaluation challenges and flip the small account to a million, the only variable will be the level of risk involved. For me, it’s psychologically easier risking 2% of a large funded account than risking 40% of a small personal account, especially as that small account starts to grow. So, by using a trade copier, I’m hoping to mute some of the emotional turmoil of increasing lot sizes with the small account.
Anyways, if you would like to follow my own audacious attempt to flip a hundred bucks to a million, check out myfxbook.
A Broad Overview Of My Game Plan
The Stats
I spent the final few months of 2023 backtesting and refining my strategy.
During 2023 it produced approximately 118 valid trading opportunities with an average win rate of 74% and a 1:1 reward to risk.
That might not seem overly impressive compared to some of the bold claims often seen elsewhere on social media but it is more than profitable enough to help me achieve all of my trading objectives in 2024, even after allowing for things like slippage, fees and commissions.
The Session
I will be trading my own custom session, 8am - 2pm UK time. There are a couple of reasons that I chose this bespoke session time: Firstly, it ensures that there is going to be at least some volume and volatility in the market to play with. Secondly, I know it’s a bit cliched but I trade to live, I don’t live to trade. The doctors assure me that my time is limited, so I want to make the most of it, not be stuck in my office all day every day.
The Pairs
There are plenty of good setups with my strategy across various pairs but I will only be trading two pairs across most of my accounts for the duration of 2024: EURUSD and GBPJPY.
The Trades
I will look for a maximum of just ONE good opportunity a day. I don’t care how many more potentially lucrative setups present themselves after I have identified that opportunity, the market will still be there tomorrow. As soon as I’ve found a good setup I can execute on, I’m done for the day.
Great Expectations
I will be risking 40% of my account per trade in order to try and flip it to a million. I didn’t just pluck that figure out of the air. Instead, it is based on the Kelly Criterion, which is a calculation that helps determine an optimal bet size based on the win rate of your strategy along with the anticipated reward to risk. According to that calculation, the optimal stake size for my particular strategy (with a 74% win rate and a 1:1 reward to risk) is around 48% of my account per trade. I have reduced that to 40% in order to allow for small variations in my anticipated win rate.
The Kelly Criterion is only as strong as the accuracy of your figures. If my numbers are off, it doesn’t matter what percentage of my account I risk, I will eventually blow it. If, however, my numbers are approximately accurate, there shouldn’t be any reason I can’t achieve my goal. Since I already use this particular trading strategy to some extent, I have reasonable confidence in my data.
Just for kicks, I created a simple compounding calculator on Google Sheets to see how I would have fared during 2023, albeit in a perfect world of course. Long story short, there would have been various ups and downs but, starting in January I would have flipped the account to a million by October across just 86 trades!
If my numbers are right and I can achieve similar results to last year, I should flip the hundred bucks to a million before the end of the year. Sounds simple enough but it’s far from easy of course. I’ll be okay up until the point that I start risking five figures per trade, that’s when I think the psychological pressure is going to hit hardest. Even if you know your figures are going to hold up, it takes real ironclad strength of will to risk ridiculous amounts of your account per trade, especially when there’s a good few quid in the pot!
Will I be able to withstand that psychological pressure? Will my numbers hold up? Will I be the first trader to legitimately document and evidence flipping $100 to $1,000,000?
Stay tuned . . .
2nd January 2024
11:45 London
I was looking forward to getting back to business today but the market can be a bit capricious for these first few days. Hence, the reason I was secretly hoping not to get a trade.
As mentioned above, I am expecting around a hundred trading opportunities this year and I am planning to make the most of every one of them. Since I have vowed to take every valid trading opportunity that my strategy presents this year, I was straight in.
I was expecting the worst and, sure enough, I went straight into drawdown. Another vow I have made to myself, though, is not to close any trades early so I left it alone and carried on with some writing. A short while later, along came my first profits of 2024. Thank you very much.
More importantly, I have won the first trade on the small account challenge, already swelling the account by almost forty percent!
In trying to grow a small account fast, you really want to hit the ground running. Ideally, you need to start your quest with a few wins but it’s impossible to guess the sequence of wins and losses even though I am confident my strategy will produce a strike rate of around 70 - 75% this year. Hence, this is a fantastic start.
Don’t forget to check out and bookmark myfxbook to keep an eye on my progress to the million!
8th January 2024
09:15 London
On Friday, shortly after Nonfarm Payrolls, I took my second trade of the year. I don’t normally trade that late on a Friday but the setup came within my new custom session time of 8am till 2pm.
Unfortunately, I went straight into drawdown and almost immediately regretted taking the trade. Then I reminded myself that I have vowed to take every valid trade within my custom session time and never close my trades early. I am in monk mode this year!
By about 7pm UK time on Friday, I had the option to close the trade early at breakeven but I stayed true to my vow and decided to keep the trade open over the weekend, one of the advantages of having a FTMO Swing account.
Monday morning, just before the start of the London session, the trade finally hit my stop loss.
Now, it is a loss of course, but it’s also a little bit of a win for me too. Allow me to explain. Last year, closing trades early and not sticking to my strategy, cost me a lot of money. I still managed to make a profit overall but it could have been a lot more had I just been more disciplined. This year I’m sticking to my strategy no matter what.
January last year the sequence of wins and loss for my revised strategy was:
W W W L W W
We can never know the sequence of wins and losses in advance and, obviously, past results don’t guarantee future performance. However, by thoroughly backtesting your strategy then staying true to it no matter what, not only do you give yourself the best possible chance of reproducing similar results to your backtesting, it also helps manage your expectations.
This January so far my sequence of results are now:
W L
Let’s see, how it progresses through the month. Incidentally, I am in another trade this morning that is currently in profit, I’ll update you all after the trade closes . . .
10th January 2024
07:45 London
Ouch!
I kind of understand now why most trading gurus don’t share their actual results. Aside from negative results being bad business perhaps, it feels kind of embarrassing having to admit losses.
As I have said above, to succeed in any kind of small account challenge, realistically you need to win the first couple of trades. My year got off to a fantastic start with a nice little winner. I was cautiously optimistic that I might get a good run at it.
In January 2023 there were only six trades throughout the entire month, five of which won (some that I actually took). So, I was a little surprised when a second trade opportunity presented itself so quickly. Nevertheless, as I have said, I have vowed that I am going to take every valid opportunity I come across this year to try and best replicate my backtesting results.
I was therefore troubled when a third opportunity presented itself to me Monday morning. Here’s how that trade went:
And, of course, equally perturbed by another setup yesterday, here’s how that turned out:
I only had six trades the whole of last January and here I am with four trades already in just the second week of January 2024, three of them losing trades. I went into this challenge confidently expecting a win rate of around 70% based on my backtested win rate of 74%. Instead, I have actually achieved a loss rate of 75%. Not bad
There is around $20 left in the account. I will take at least another two trades using my predefined Kelly percentage before considering the attempt completely failed.
Should I fail this first attempt, I will reload and try again - same strategy, same percentage. Last year I never had more than two losses in a row with this strategy. Here in January, I have already had three. Even with the high win rate from my back testing, that is still well within normal parameters. Unfortunately, however, when you are risking around forty percent of the account per trade, three or more losses in a row all but kills the account.
Anyways, stay tuned . . .
