Personally, I don’t have the time to day-trade. Even swing trading is a bit too time intensive for me to properly study up for. So I’m applying my limited experience (1yr) to following large trends.
It basically makes me an investor vs. a typical trader. The only similarity that I see is that I have to identify my entry very well.
So far, looking for long-term trends I’ve identified a small handful of currency pairs that might qualify as a potential long-term trading winners. But, timing and entry is everything. I’m looking for home-runs. Price points that don’t get seen again for months/years. Letting my positions sit and ride out the bumps but ride the trend.
My current strategy is to map out sub-trends beneath the major ones. Wait for these points to be approached/intersect at or close to the major trend lines and place entries. Leveraging large positions with SLs that are met when the perceived trend is violated. Relatively, very short SLs.
I’m experimenting with sub-trends right now. A live micro account with expendable cash.
I was inspired to this approach listening to some audio books describing the mind-set of some big-time trend traders. Most of the traders were systems traders but many of the philosophies rang true with me.
Anyhow, I’ve been lurking this site for a few months and would love to hear some opinion at this approach.
i have been considering this very recently…i’ve been a swing trader mostly, but market conditions are tempting me to try an aggressive long-term trade or two. i think that the opportunity will probably present itself soon well, good luck to us both…
I place a few trades that fit with what you are talking about. I generally hold trades for a few days, but will hold them longer if the trend is still working for me. One thing you have to watch is carry interest. Another thing is that I don’t feel that the market is supporting longer-term trading at the moment as well as it has been, we are in a state of transition on a few of the Pairs. It is still working, but I have been trading more intraday, recently, to give myself a staple income to fund my end of day exploits.
I would echo Gasanvill’s sentiment that entering trades off the Daily chart only requires that you scan for setups once in 24 hours, then enter the trade using orders. This is pretty low impact, makes good pips and will work around most jobs.
Not saying that you are wrong to mull over longer-term trading, but I would look at Daily entries in your position.
I’ll be running two accounts next year. One long-term and another for everything else. Eventually, whenever I look at the charts, I won’t be wondering what it would be like to have been at that all-time high/low or significant turning point and just let a position sit for months. I watched it come and go on the EUR/USD in April @ 1.4946. Wouldn’t it be cool to still have a significant position near that number right now and into the coming months?
The longer you hold your position the more troublesome (means expensive…) leverage becomes.
For long term only 1:1 or low leverage positions are good.
So I really pity leveraged investors in SLV who found themselves on wrong side of the market several days ago (16%+ loss in a single day and ~25+% loss within 2 days)…
Lets add 1:10 lever and absence of SL and…
I’m not sure what you mean. I’m in a long position now with USD/JPN @ 76.62. It’s currently @ 76.83. I’ve moved my SL to 76.65. If the price never comes back down (which it likely will but for sake of argument) then I can hold this position indefinetly, other than roll-overs etc. If/when it does come down my SL will trip before I’m in the red. And let’s say I’ve ran out my account leverage to 90% with a large position. What is the risk aside from a crazy spike which would simply margin call me anyway before I lost 10% of my account?
I’m relatively new to trading so this is a little of the blind leading the blind. But this is what I’m working on.
What I have done is gone through all the major pairs on the month time frame and determined where the trends are. The ones that don’t have obvious trends I’ve disregarded. From that list I look at where the price is in relation to the long-term trend. In those I look for sub-trends that might be leading to interesect with the major trend. That is where I would enter.
The price is relatively flat with a slight trend up. I only go long, also due to possible BOJ intervention. But after that down trend is intersected I will be watching for new lows. It will be months down the road but eventually I expect there to be a major reversal and I want to hold a position long on the bottom.
I will have a seperate account set aside strictly for this type of trading. I’m prepared for draw downs as I look for that position. There are other pairs that are in various stages of trends. Very long term speculative and it may be years before I’ve nailed down a good system for myself. But I’m in this for the long-term.
My only problem the usd/jpy is that overall it has been on a down since 2001. It broke it a few times but never reached those highs again and has been on a steady down since 2008. With another US recession possible I think it could still be on its way down. I am looking at the overall picture I dont want to just catch small ups like we saw from 3/17/08-8/15/08. I want to catch the yearly trend and if you look it ended up way down in 08. I think I am going to go against the USD when I decide to do this or maybe trade other currencies that dont involve the USD. Also, have you looked into interest rates much? From what I was reading you can make profit over the long term from just letting it sit with interest rates.
Looks like we are into the bounce right now. With the subtrend on the down right now may be a good place to find that long-term long position. We’re on the same page.
I’ve always found the mods pretty sensible on here, so I guess you were either advertising a link or being rude to someone…? I think it’s pretty easy to avoid mod wrath on here, unlike some sites I have been on - the rules are outlined pretty cleary on the homepage, here, and as far as I have heard that is all that ever gets enforced.
Plus we have seen recently the level that the BoJ protect. It seems moderately likely that they would protect the same level again. So that would give added protection to the Stop on a long position (until it shoots off in your favour and you trail your Stop up to lock in 10% profit, of course…!)
Things seem to have tapered off on the down trend. Another month may tell the story. We are either on the floor or we’re off to continue the trend into new lows. I’m playing the floor angle right now. Catching the swings up, protecting my position with BE+. Not making any real profits doing this but playing that strategy for now.
I started as an intraday trader and though I managed to make money in the markets, my life as a forex trader changed when I moved to swing trading. The reason I moved to swing trading were similar to yours, I just did not have the time for the intensive intraday trading. I use the same technical analysis methods, but I just implement them on the daily chart. The money management is pretty much the same – I just open smaller positions. I usually take a trade for 3-5 days and if it successful I can keep it for weeks with updating the stop loss order along the trade. Swing trading is much easier to handle and I am really happy with that. In fact, my balance started to show serious performance since I started doing swing trading. Do not be afraid of that, just use size that will not stress you out. Good luck!
I’m trying to replicate the system Richard Dennis taught his students, basically it relies only on looking at price.
the gist of it is you buy when price makes a 20 day high, set stop loss at twice that day’s 20 day atr.
exit position when the price makes a 10 day low, and obviously at the stop loss.
