Losing hope, forex doesn't seems legit

Trading Discussion
1

Have you seen the recent GBPJPY & USDJPY’s fakeouts? I start to think forex is rigged. Just like roullette. I start to think is impossible to make money trading. Who gives you money for simply giving some clicks?

I would like to believe this lifestyle is possible but seeing how I was burnt with GBPJPY and USDJPY it simply just seems unreasonable. Not to mention even ifnyou are profitable who is going to give you the money you made? No one. The broker denies to pay you.

My dark thoughts, here expressed. I would like to believe that forex (and stocks so on…) is a science, is an art, like mathematics, surgery, but it doesn’t seems at all. It looks like a scam, and a very dirty world where you stand no chance in being proftable, for sure almost impossible to be consistent. If you win, well people win at roullete and slot machines too. But they still lose.

7 Likes
2

you right if the broker is not regulated

sharks eating little fish are everywhere
and retail traders are little fish
to survive do like the little fish do
swim near the choral riff
and hide when the sharks are out hunting

you need a strong strategy and more than 5k account if you want to make a living out of trading

6 Likes
3

Hi, I’m sorry you feel this way but I dont understand what you’re talking about. What fakeouts are you talking about? I’m not sure what your strategy is but to put it very simple, as a beginner you can use the 50ma as a marker of whether the market is trending up or down.

Usdjpy price was below daily 50ma so only looking to sell and price rose all day and was above 50ma on all other timeframes so no trade.

Gbpjpy price was through 50ma so no trade all day as direction not clear. Even if you wanted to trade, there were 3 bullish pin bars to 50ma which would have given you 1:1 on all 3 trades:

Screenshot_20200108-182638_IG Trading
Screenshot_20200108-182638_IG Trading1080×2220 234 KB

So what were you trading? Like i said it all depends on your strategy. Have you backtested it? Have you forward tested it?

It’s all hindsight I know. But if it doesnt look clear or make sense dont trade. With all due respect I would encourage you to go back to educating yourself. Start from the beginning, you can use this link which includes the babypips course. Best of luck :+1:

11 Likes
4

fakeouts_ are very high probability trades, wish them were a few everyday…


take a look of a +fakeout of previous day s high in a daily fib and downward channel, and divergence on the 1hr with high volume rejection… like i said, very high probability trades, also the fib retracement after such a fakeout on high vol rejection is a high probability trade imho. and i assure u the broker does pay if it s regulated ofc. i felt more or less like u do few years back, but i pushed thro and kept at it, study and fail some more untill u succeed. nothing that s worth while comes easy in life.
cheers

4 Likes
5

Of course its rigged.

Its called the Central bank of Japan - the biggest player in the market.

Remember there are no exchange rules in Forex unlike the stock market.

But dont be so quick to blame your broker Gbp/jpy is a wild pair indeed!

3 Likes
6

My own two cents is the following: Unless you are a very unusual (strange) person, your natural psychology will tend to interfere with the judgement required to trade successfully—i.e., to be consistently profitable. In my view, the only solution offering a realistic probability for success is to build yourself a rules-based system—one that suits you—and practise the discipline necessary to implement it rigorously. Inevitably, that will take time. Developing a solid system is a major project.

In a sense you are correct that forex is rigged. But the scam doesn’t require devious machinations; it’s brutally simple. The big trading banks use their economic weight to manipulate currency markets relentlessly, lining their fat pockets with your money on a daily basis. Of course you don’t stand a chance going up against them at their own game. But try thinking about it this way… If you imagine yourself being responsible for running a trading desk at one of those banks, where do you suppose you would go to access the liquidity necessary move the market in the direction you want? If it were me, I would trade the bank’s money in the world’s largest traded markets: currency pairs like EUR/USD and USD/JPY. When smaller traders enter such markets, you run the risk of having your stops located in cosy proximity to thousands of your closest friends… just where the big banks know you are likely to be. To them, you are part of a beautiful, deep pool of liquidity they can use to get momentum going in the direction they want. So they steer the price around and clean up all that easy money. Every day. It’s up to you if you want to take that risk repeatedly. Personally, I look for trades in markets that are subject to less manipulation.

As someone else has mentioned, you needn’t worry about the broker paying out if they are properly regulated. Unfortunately we still need governments for that.

All of this is, I think, demonstrable. More subjectively, I suspect that a deeper theme underlies the efforts of the really successful traders: Don’t look for shortcuts; don’t be seduced into what look like easy-peasy methods. I don’t advise anybody what they should do—as it is, I’m skeptical of the advice of actual experts, and I’m certainly not one! The real world is quite noisy, and who can tell where a niche exists in a market. But my gut feeling is that the road to consistently profitable trading is actually very much like those things you mentioned—art, mathematics, pure or applied science—fields of endeavour that call for disciplined, sustained, committed effort. So far, understanding myself is proving to be the toughest, most ragged chunk of my trading journey.

14 Likes
7

Total agree. Rule based systems are best for beginners.

The more discretion involed the more chance to mess up.

4 Likes
8

GBP/JPY is one of the most volatile pairs and you should be careful with the stop loss level. It can be hit very quickly.

Always open small lot size on the this pair to avoid losing the trade when fluctuations appears.

If you trade with the trading plan and risk management you can earn money easily.

Do not be greedy and hunt for large amount of money. Take step by step, earn small money and see how to account grows.

Be careful which broker do you use so you do not lose the money. There are brokers who lure you with no deposit bonus but mostly they are not legit and you should stay away.

Trading session pip range -comparison

The frustration you are experiencing is just because your idea is not fulfilled. Have risk to reward ratio and accept that bad trades will come eventually. Have more wining trades than losing ones and you will earn money.

7 Likes
9

nice post @insane19

If you don’t mind I’d like to address some of the points you made.

which one is that? If you are talking about driving Bugatti after a few trades like it is shown on YouTube or Instagram… nope, sorry, not going to happen

The one who has lost or the counterparty of your trade (broker, business, another trader,…)

If you avoid offshore brokers the chances of this happening are very small.

it is a science and an art. But don’t expect hard rules, set in stone, valid all the time. Like the rules in the Matrix, “some of them can be bend, others can be broken”

Consider the following rough example
Gambling- scalping EURUSD, trying to make as many trades, every day, stop-loss is a lot larger than take-profit.

Trading - waiting for the right day when higher volatility can be expected (probably a direction can be expected as well), checking if EURUSD is the right vehicle, hunting for trade with 1:2 or 1:3 risk-reward.

The difference between gambling and trading is how you approach the markets

Yes, it is, not always, only from time to time :slight_smile: But it also random. If it was rigged all the time it won’t be random :slight_smile:

Now seriously, you had an emotional response to an unpleasant event. No big deal. Happens to all of us. It will happen again to you in the future. the only thing you can do is to try to limit the emotional response.

To continue you must accept that this is the way this game work. If you can’t accept the pain and deal with it trading might not be for you.

6 Likes
10

You’ve been trying to trade these two pairs through the Soleimani crisis? Short-term I assume?

2 Likes
11

The FX markets may or may not be rigged. However if you lose a trade, that means someone else on the other side is winning it. What stopped you being on the other side? You are allowed to go long and short. In my experience - and I speak as someone who has never made or lost significant amounts of money in FX - the majority of trades become profitable, provided they are left to run. This means, I think, that one should trade small with very large stop losses.

3 Likes
12

Which pairs are less to manipulation

13

hahaha Solemani had to featured…you’ve made my day!

14

Hi There “insane”. Have you tried Expert Advisers (or other trading robots), sometimes called Algorithms?

15

I’ve felt the same way as you and I can assure you you are not alone. There was even an article posted by Babypips about exactly how you feel because it is so common (I can’t find where it is but I think it was in the trader psychology section).

From the sound of your post you may be placing trades too large for your account. Trade small. Next, I’m not sure what time frame you are using, but if it is the daily you should have been able to take profits from at least one of your trades:

GBPJPY-13-jan-20
GBPJPY-13-jan-20845×675 48 KB

From the breakout about the blue horizontal line you could have taken profit as it started to fall. Breakout followed the trend (EXP moving aves), then rising blue trend support line is a definite Take profit (TP) if not done before.

USDJPY-13-jan-20
USDJPY-13-jan-20845×675 48.2 KB

Then this one, breakdown below has lower odds of follow through as the trend is up (the trend is your friend) and the breakthrough up is likely. Also breakthrough down matched the ATR volatility. There would have been many who placed long orders hoping for a range long trade with stops around 30 to 40 pips, which would have all triggered then rebounded (they could all be feeling the same way as you). You could have moved your stop to your entry to protect against potential fakeouts.

Also follow the news cycles a little. GBP jumped on news that the elections saw UK Conservatives cement a majority, thus less Brexit uncertainty. Right after that the realisation that the Negotations were going to be very hard brought it down again.

For the Yen, the Iranian crises seemed to be winding down, especially when Trump said he thought things were calming and he wasn’t going to increase warefare, thus yen started falling.

So there are technical factors why this might have not worked out but more importantly there are psychological ‘feelings’ that go hand in hand. But trust me, it is not rigged how you think. I used to have exactly the same experiences, and sometimes still feel that way, however I have trained myself (and still training) to realise when I feel these ways that the market is more random than I think and that I just have to follow my system and the next trades will come my way.

So trade smaller sizes, follow the trend and Go Large! By ‘going large’ I mean go long term time frames, it is easier.

4 Likes
16

Simple answer. Yes, the Forex market is the most manipulated financial market in the world. There are trading desks around the world, NY, London and Tokyo as well as a couple others, that Market Makers manipulate price.
Their ONLY objective is to make money and most of that money comes from you and I as retail traders.
As long as you trade against the dealers you will feel that frustration.
If you learn how the Market Makers move the markets and the tactics they use, (there are only a few but they work every time like novacaine to the uneducated) you will feel that frustration.

1 Like
17

A big stop loss requires a big take profit , so it’s basically the some . It only takes more time :slight_smile:

19

Perhaps you need to always base your trades not on the setup/formation in front of you, but on the CONFIRMED setup on the higher time frame?

https://www.tradingview.com/x/65C6qwbJ/

As hopefully my chart demonstrates, wait for signs of confirmed honesty on HTF, then just hit at an acceptable level on a retrace into previous support…that way, total crooked ■■■■■■■■ price action as demonstrated on the 5 min chart, will be no more than an irrelevant little squiggle on your chart…instead of $$$'s up in smoke.

20

My best advice would be to find a system. Do the tedious work and reap the long term reward. #NoShortCut

21

Try trading in sessions. Asian, London, US, sidney,…instead of trying to work the whole field. Concentrate discipline and strategy in a smaller scale. Pick a group and see how it trades from day to day durring that session. It might surprise you.