That’s a lot better then my first year trading. I’m sure that i made way over 254 losses in a row accountable to simple trader errors; misclicks,fear,greed etc. Last time i checked trading only requires clicking a mouse button for the most part i can’t see how clicking to win and clicking to lose can be more difficult then the other.
[QUOTE=“Jcandle;621839”] That’s a lot better then my first year trading. I’m sure that i made way over 254 losses in a row accountable to simple trader errors; misclicks,fear,greed etc. Last time i checked trading only requires clicking a mouse button for the most part i can’t see how clicking to win and clicking to lose can be more difficult then the other.[/QUOTE]
Right you are my dude. Everyone is granted a 50% chance right out of the gate.
Yes of course, that’s perfectly true. Set up a simulation plug in the win rate and RR and I’m you’ll certainly get some astounding results.
My RR isn’t too far away from 1:1. My win rate certainly isn’t what you’d call high, 60 percent is enough to get a 100% return over a year and usually with single digit drawdowns! and without using excessive leverage. With those kinds of figures, I’m making new equity highs about 18 percent of the time.
Of course if I could improve RR or win rate, I’d be richer than Bill Gates. And believe me, I spend vast amounts of time each day trying to do that, and despite not having done so, and despite not really needing to do so, I will keep on trying just for the fun of it.
I’ve looked at a lot of equity curves from traders that I’ve worked with and funded, and I’ve looked at a lot of equity curves from traders and funds soliciting for our capital, but I can honestly say that I’ve never found anyone who can maintain those kinds of high win rates, with those kinds of RR. If they’re achieving high win rates, it’s usually being achieved by taking more risk.
A lot of people over the years have told me about guys with 80 and 90 percent win ares at 1:1, and I’ve even thrown some money at backing a few 
but I’ve never been able to find anyone who was able to maintain this numbers long term, or find any proof of anyone doing so. If you’ve got a link to anyone making those kinds of returns I’d be interested in taking a look,
Conversely, I know a lot more people who’ve been around for well over a decade, and achieving solid returns, and most of those guys gave a win rate way below 50%, and the very best of those people tend to have the lowest win rates. I don’t trade that way myself, precisely because of the greater probability of hitting a monster losing streak, but that’s just my preference and personal trading style.
What type of system do you use? Technical or fundamental? Simple price action or what?
OK brother let me assist you in making better trades, take a chart on a currency pair you want to trade, only one pair, add a 200 day moving average to it, now study that if the pair is moving in either direction on a 4 hour chart remember the 200 day moving average is the tether and its fluid so a hard move in a direction bends the average.
Now remember for every advance there is always drawdown and news affects the direction and also the rolls.
If you are consistently losing money then do the exact opposite of what you were planning to do. Eg, if at a given time and point your strategy tells you to go long, then go short.
GBP/USD, H4, 200EMA : the price is +122 pips above the EMA. Now guessing, you would go short, and exit 50 pips below the EMA ?
I would trade with the trend after retracement personally I dont trade that pair, but me thinks its at or close to resistance.
Unfortunately this very rarely works, and that’s particularly the case when using a system with mechanical rules. There are ways of losing money quickly, and of course the spread will always ensure that over the long term you’ll lose if you don’t have an edge, but broadly speaking, it’s just as hard to design a losing system as a profitable one.
The other problem with reversing your initial trade idea is that it might actually work for a while, but what happens at the point you start to get a little more experience, and you start making better calls and getting the direction right ? Then you end up making losing trades ! and how do you identify when that transition between not having a clue, and having enough of a clue actually happens.
Of course the big problem is that the distribution of winners and losers from any system or strategy is completely random, so when you see 10 consecutive wins, it’s fairly meaningless, other than to show that your system was possibly in alignment with current market conditions. The same can be said for 10 consecutive losing trades, so forming any sort of opinion about the effectiveness of a trading method, or your trading skills on such limited data is pretty much meaningless.
Having said all of that, I think there are two exceptions where swapping might be beneficial. Fading the trades of very inexperienced traders might just work, as they tend to do a lot worse than you might expect just by random chance, they tend to have an inbuilt negative edge caused by psychology, and they’ll cut winners short, and allow losses to run. I am a bit skeptical about this working. Years ago I used to hang out with a bunch of traders all of whom believed that you could capitalize of analyzing traders behavior, categorizing their calls, following consistently successful people, and fading consistent losers. One or two of those guys went on to build enormously successful social media trading platforms (and earn considerably more from doing so than they ever dreamed of earning as traders). I don’t know, and they are unlikely to tell me to but I don’t think the data from those platforms gives them the edge that they thought might be in there somewhere. I really am in two minds about this stuff, look at some of the analytics that Oanda provide, if you look at long term trends, when the markets going up, most of their traders are short, and pretty much as soon as the market reverses and starts going down, everyone gets long, so there might be an edge in there someplace if you where prepared to grind it out.
Secondly, a lot of the advice offered by brokers and those paid by brokers is deliberately skewed against the interest of traders, the negative edge by taking that advice isn’t that huge, and they have a big enough advantage anyway, but I suppose every little helps. I would be inclined to suggest that flipping most popular advice in its head is generally a good starting point.
Looking for a serious trend?
USD/CNH still moving up!
How far can it go?
Regards
psa
With the absence of relevant economic indicators, today investors should focus attention on business news. This week has been characterized by news of business consolidation movements as well as the depreciation of the Euro, which yesterday has reached the minimum against the dollar since March 19th. The presentation schedule of business results is now being filled, although the earnings season in the US traditionally start earlier. The retail sector will call attention on the day after the Carrefour have presented figures on better sales than estimates, due to growth in Latin America and to the improvement of hypermarkets in the domestic market. In turn, the mining companies may be affected by the decline of about 30% in one month, of futures price on the iron. The issue of Greece remains one of investors’ concerns.
If you are not trading using any trading plan, then you should be facing a huge losing streak. So if you want to stop your losing streak, then you should start trading with a plan.
With the acquisition of BG Group by Shell to increase expectations of more mergers and acquisitions in the oil sector. Despite the drop in crude oil price in recent months, the oil sector has several opportunities especially for larger companies who have accumulated enough liquidity in recent years. Thus, rather than increase investment as they had planned before the abrupt oil fall, some of the largest companies in the sector have preferred to acquire smaller companies, thereby not only gain market share as synergies.
Losing streak for those that trade depending on their luck never ends quickly. So if you want to get rid of your losing streak then get a good trading system, practice on it and then become a good winning trader.