Being Friday and USD Employment numbers coming out tonight, it is unlikely we will be opening new trades today, unless trading the 4H TF.
AUDJPY: It did look like this pair would be kind to us when it was opened. Right now it is in a retracement-and-basing pattern, meaning it has pulled back below our entry, and is now in loss by 14 pips. However, a glance at the 4H shows a small pin bar, and the current 4H has gone nowhere since opening . The last 4H candle has now formed a doji, meaning no-one seems interested in driving this pair higher or lower right now.
The new 4H candle has just opened, so will watch with interest, to see how it bodes for our Daily trade. It is just possible - I mean about 60% likely in my view - that this pair may strike a base here and decide to rally once more. This would be in keeping with a choppy market, but this kind of conjecture requires a crystal ball, and we are not into predicting here.
AUDUSD: This is another pair which we left alone as the MA’s crossed. It is a pair from which about 50 pips might have been made had we entered, and possibly even more on the 4H TF. Since the 4H is currently flat-lining, we will move on. I do not see a trade here this side of Tuesday, unless you are keen on following action on the 4H.
EURCHF has crossed and confirmed a short trade. Monday and Tuesday should be interesting for the pair. ADX is baffling since it still registers as 57, with a strong rally bias, while the 4H ADX is at 41, with a strong retrace bias. The 4H is putting in long lower candle body wicks, which is not too inspiring for a short trade. This is one of those look-and-learn moments.
EURGBP: We are currently long this pair and as I write, about 37 pips in the red.
All appearances are flat right now. ADX is sideways-to-down. With no clear direction, we will allow the trade to ride for now, as MACD while under the mid-line, is still rising. HA candles are very small, signalling indecision in the market as well. The 4H chart is choppy - one-up-one-down, so no guidance from that quarter.
EURJPY: This pair was sold down during the London/New York sessions last night, and today during the current Sydney/Tokyo market, it has produced a base range of 11 pips over the past 8 hrs. It is now 54 pips to the red on our account. Since it seems to be forming some sort of base, we will just wait for now. To remain with it risks further drawdown (DD) but to close locks in that loss. Usual dilemma.
EURUSD: This is another pair which changed direction the day after we entered short. It is currently 48 pips in the red, and quite flat - noticeably on the 4H. Eill sta with it since indications are that it is unstable where it is, and ADX has run out of steam in the lower TF… MACD and Stoch_RSI indicate a retracement on 4H and flat on Daily. Hold.
GBPJPY: This is one of my favourite pairs to trade, but is subject to volatility and is not an easy one to manage. Every indicator except ADX is pointing to a sell, as is price. We still require one more day to confirm a short trade. Traders following the 4H should be already making some pips. ADX is concerning though, as it is indicating “hesitatingly sideways.”
GBPUSD: We are short and in the red to the tune of 110 pips. Daily candle indicators are telling us this pair is in a firm rally. However on 4H chart the ADX is strongly in favour of the rally, but it is alone there, as the rest of the indicators are pointing at the ground! A short on the 4H is not yet confirmed, and won’t be for 4 more hours (on my broker’s charts). We will hold on, since a possible downturn would be in our favour.
NZDUSD: Positive for a rally, but bumping up against resistance today. Since that is the case, and it is Friday, we will stand aside form this pair. 4H is flattening for the past 16 hours as well.
USDCAD: We have had a confirmed entry long here a day or two ago, but the ADX was too weak to support an entry. No advance on the impulse candle that caused the MA crossing, and today the range is just 10 pips - flat. No possibility of a trade on the 4H right now - chop.
USDCHF: The 5-day range is between 100 and 150 pips. Currently sitting close to recent support, and the 4H is flattening. ADX is strengthening, while still a little soft at 27. There is a chance this pair could continue to go south and break through support. As with all USD pairs today, much will depend on the news in about 11.5 hrs time. Nothing for us today - We’ll follow its progress next week.
USDJPY: I like the look of this pair right now. Seems poised to fall 100 pips or more. 4H ADX is down at 31.6. Daily is sideways. This is yet one more pair that is consolidating and flat, and could also be strongly affected by USD news results tonight. As much as I would like to short this now, I will stick to the rules and wait until the ADX is confirming the trend.
That is the summary as I see it.
I would be interested in the thoughts of others regarding this, as I am always keen to learn how others see the charts.