5ema close
8SMA close
I see a buy trade on eur/usd if the current candle closes bullish at 10am, is this correct?
Yes. If Red Crossed 20SMA confirmed, it is a buy signal. Let’s see if it manage to get up and hit 161.8 (70% chance it will)
Do you wait for the one hour candle to close to confirm the crossover before you enter the trade?
Yes ofcourse, or else we wont be able to project the price extension properly. PT A is close price of the crossover activation, so it is essential to wait for candle close.
PT A was inside consolidation range…
So this only works with eur/usd or others too? i think its a great system by the way!
Good trades buddy. Though I couldn’t help but want to mention that EU and UC is negatively correlated… so if EU hits 161.8, UC should hit as well. Interesting way to diversify your risk. Thank u for the charts.
I’ve traded this system initially on EURJPY and GBPJPY 3-4 years ago (the 5ema x 8sma exit mechanism wasn’t added yet then) on H4. I must say it worked well for me, but with the lack of testing it before, one market conditon happend and booM! I lost 50% of my account. By then, I knew I needed better exiting system (hence the 5ema x 8sma… as you know, im working on settinga fixed Macfibo SL). I still believe it could work on these pairs but perhaps some minor tweaking on profit taking or loss taking mechanism could make a difference.
Currently I am trading the Macfibo with EURUSD only… I’ve tested (still am) and paper traded Macfibo on AUDUSD, GBPUSD and GOLD… so far it looks good.
Thank you for you compliments, i think it is a decent system that gives high % winning trades but I believe there is space of improvement.
$EURUSD
Macfibo Buy in Asian-London session was a good one. Hit TP 161.8, right now testing the 200.0 area.
Aud/Usd 1 hour buy signal is looking good so far :18:
My friend once told me there is a ‘freaky pattern’ with EU-AU correlation in terms of Macfibo. He never told me what it was… my guess is EU macfibo will precede/begets AU macfibo?? I am sure it is just a coincidence?? Well…
That’s very interesting
Just wanted to say I am very interested in this thread. Simplicity is the answer. Looking forward to version 2.0. Thanks
Yep it is very interesting. But this isn’t the first ‘freaky pattern’ I’ve countered in my years of backtesting/trading currency and commodity markets… it usually ends up just ‘a coincidence’. But I did look several months very quickly just now though… it does look that a successful EU macfibo activation (hitting 161.8) will followed by a successful AU macfibo activation hours or days after that… again… probably just a coincidence. (I might read up on EU and AU correlation now) 
I am very happy of your interest and how you find it… it is simple right? Keep reading the thread.
In relation to AUDUSD and correlation, I can safely say though that the movement of XAUUSD (this applies to Macfibo 55-60% of the time, I’ve studied this months ago… I just went through my journal found it :D) act like a ‘leading indicator’ to AUDUSD. Well, everybody knows this. AUDUSD is a commodity currency and it will move positively with Gold prices. Basically, if you believe Gold is on the up… then Long AUDUSD… but I am telling you guys what you already know. Cheers.
So in relation to Macfibo, should there be a Macfibo activation on XAUUSD, there should be a AUDUSD activation few candles after that. You can use your own creativity how to make this fact as your trading ammunition. My rough idea is if XAUUSD activates and hasn’t reversed after 3-5 candles (providing AUDUSD yet to activate the similar macfibo), then the AUDUSD activated macfibo should be similar with the idea that Gold prices gone up, Aussie should do the same.
EURUSD Macfibo Analysis
Price almost manage to touch 261.8 (some cases, this is discretionary, I would’ve just exit the trade when there is 5-8 pips near 261.8) and moved down a little bit. Price moved above yesterday’s high. Yesterday’s high has become Suppport it seems so far. It will be interesting if this new support will hold it and continues the current intraday trend… that is up. 361.8 is a probable target but when EU single wave has gone up between 100-120 pips, usually followed by minor correction before continuing. So we shall see… I have seen EU moved up 150-170 pips without a correction before… ofcouse that was due to fundamental reasons as well… so we shall see.
Will I take a bullish re-entry today even price hasn’t gone down and atleast test today’s daily pivot? Let me check my 3 year journal…
…
…
it says “should take it”… I’d probably would.
p/s : If I say I would take doesn’t mean you should by the way… If your analysis suggest you should wait for a correction… by all means. I lose trades as well. True… I can say now I am pretty much mechanical and totally detached from any ongoing trades… but that doesn’t mean I never lose a trade. I am just following my trading rules. A re-entry will be taken without hesitation… my journal says so too. 
Interesting Macfibo Stats on EU (…taken in the first 300 trades, starting January 2009)
*Reason I only post 300 trades here, I don’t take US-session-only activations after that, I want to show you all the overall statistics.
Most profitable : London Session (75%)
Worst Session : US session (61%)
Overall Average Pips : 47 (rounded up)
Overall Average Loss : 33 (rounded up)
Worst Run (consecutive losses) : 3
Best Run (consecutive wins) : 8
Biggest Win : 274 pips
Biggest Loss : 80 pips (during NFP)
[U]Stats on London Sessions (including London+US)[/U]
Average Pips : 37 pips
Average Loss : 11 pips
Biggest Win : 95
BIggest Loss : 80 (NFP)
Worst Run : 2
Best Run : 12
I hope you enjoy reading the stats. I’ve worked really hard to get the first 300 trades… as like what Rob Booker have said about backtesting… ITS HELL!!.. I’ve logged in more than 1000 trades already, I will post it once there are more interest in the thread.
p/s : It was manual backtesting, following strictly on Trading rules. I exageratted each losses by +10 pips and decrease each wins by -10 pips.