Macfibo system

[alfa2]

Honestly i dont quite get the question sorry…can you rephrase the question please.

OK. Let’s suppose there is a blackout at 05.00 clock, so I do not see the chart, I do not see that there is a 5x20 valid sign at 05.00 clock. Electricity comes back only at 08.00 so I can see that I have missed an entry sign at 05.00.

But!

When electricity comes back at 08.00 and I can start to work, the market situation is the same as it was earlier at 05.00 clock. There was no serious mouvments in the past 3 hours, price is about the same, so practically I can enter with the same conditions at 08.00 as I could do it earlier at 05.00 (if I could see the chart)

The question: should I enter 3 hours after the sign in this situation or not?

[machal]

@alfa2

The question: should I enter 3 hours after the sign in this situation or not?

As you can see on eur/usd chart enter was worth on friday even 3 hours after sign. I think that more important are S/R levels - but I can be wrong.

After this sign i grab 20pips on demo

Here is my analysis:

and the zoom:

[sufiansaid]

OK. Let’s suppose there is a blackout at 05.00 clock, so I do not see the chart, I do not see that there is a 5x20 valid sign at 05.00 clock. Electricity comes back only at 08.00 so I can see that I have missed an entry sign at 05.00.

But!

When electricity comes back at 08.00 and I can start to work, the market situation is the same as it was earlier at 05.00 clock. There was no serious mouvments in the past 3 hours, price is about the same, so practically I can enter with the same conditions at 08.00 as I could do it earlier at 05.00 (if I could see the chart)

The question: should I enter 3 hours after the sign in this situation or not?

Ooohh right right…

Providing price [B]hasn’t hit 127.2 at the time[/B] , then yes, i’d enter the trade. I’ve had this experience several times before where price just almost like ‘stand stil’ after 2-3 hours after the signal. Thank you for the interest buddy. Keep reading.

Another time as well, when price activated for buy at the London open but I wasn’t on my chart, three hours after that I loaded my chart and realised price has reversed but not 5x8 yet. Price is now below 100.0 fibonacci hence at ‘better price’. Will I still enter the trade? Yes I will but I’d go to M5 timeframe for ‘timing’ (covered in detail in advanced version).

[sufiansaid]

Hi Sufiansaid, I am a newbie to the Forex but have been reading your forum, thanks for sharing the system and spending time to respond to queries - appreciate it! I am looking to backtest on currencies, I have downloaded trade inceptor for charts but it only has H1 data going back to March this year, I also use IG index spreadbetting which has a chart tool, but this only goes back to Jan this year on H1 charts (goes back over 10 years on D1!) - just wondered if there was a chart package you know of, or a way of backtesting on H1 charts for the last couple of years to get the 500 sample. Many thanks!

I have used MT4 only in my years of trading. I am lucky enough to get data as far 2006 in my H1. I think you can google and find a website that provides historical data that could go as far as 2001. I forgot the link. Someone can help him?

[sufiansaid]

@machal

As you can see on eur/usd chart enter was worth on friday even 3 hours after sign. I think that more important are S/R levels - but I can be wrong.

After this sign i grab 20pips on demo

Here is my analysis:

and the zoom:

Good trade buddy and love your chart template!

[sufiansaid]

MACFIBO SYSTEM UPDATE 16/4/2012

In my experience trading Macfibo on EURUSD and GBPJPY, there will be months that this system performs not as good as any other months (no surprise there). This shouldn’t be come as a surprise because EVERY system will go through this. In 2009, February was really bad. In 2010, i think it was on November where the winning percentage of that month was around 48% (the pattern was like 2 big-ish win, 3 small-ish losses etc).

I must say so far in April, Macfibo hasn’t performed as well as I would have liked… in terms of number of wins over losses that is. We ended last week with a profitable trade and that atleast gave me a little bit smile. Price slowed down as the signal triggered but eventually hit the 1.618 TP. Harvested 20+ pips. You must be wondering is that the only thing Macfibo could do? harvesting 20+ pips? It has nothing to do with the system rule. Its all down to EURUSD dissapointing low volume/range for the past 30 trading days.

The trading range have been averaging 110 pips only. In 2008-2009 the range was 160+ pips, 2010 and 2011 around 150 pips. So far this year EURUSD averaging around 122 pips only. So the trend now since 2008 is that EURUSD’s range is getting smaller and smaller. I’ve read the reasons for this but I won’t touch it as it is not relevant to this thread (you can ask me though, then i am more happy to tell you my theory… a hint : fundamentals).

Macfibo performance on EURUSD so far in the last 10 trades are :
LLLWWWLWLW (-12 pips… finally a negative… but not enough to break your account obviously)

Due to the shrinking range for EU, obviously the avg loss/win for this pair have shrunk as well… but the ratio between avg loss and win is more or less the same.

So what is the future of Macfibo with EURUSD?

The question itself suggests a ‘knee jerk reaction’ from me isn’t it. Let’s talk fact first. I’d skipped GBPJPY in my macfibo trading before due to it’s increasing choppiness, I skipped EURJPY in my macfibo trading before due it it’s shrinking range (the whole point of trading crosses are the range and it’s volatility). I moved to EURUSD because it provided good range in the last three years… in fact the range between Jan-April for 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011 is around 145-150 pips… VERY HUGE difference with current Jan-April 2012 range… which I’ve stated earlier in this post.

I will continue trading Macfibo EURUSD. Based on my experience, a bad 1 month or 2 month doesn’t make a ‘trend’. Macfibo have sustained the test of time averaging 65% winning percentage for the last three years and I won’t let 1 or 2 bad month makes me leave EURUSD alone for good. Like what I did with other pairs, I made adaptations, adjustments. I will continue trade EU the way I’ve traded but I will keep a close eye on it (for changes, adapting etc)

On the sidelines, I am in an ongoing backtest and paper trade on XAUUSD… which Macfibo perform better in terms of number of wins ofcourse. It is not considered a good performer if you find reversal up to 80 pips not good for your health. I am also revisiting GBPJPY now as it’s range have steadily increasing but GBPJPY is like an old haunted house that I used to live in… visiting it will bring back bad memories… but this is what forex trading is. ADAPTING to FLUID and RANDOM MARKET CONDITIONS.

EURUSD MACFIBO STATISTICS 2012 (Updated 16/4/2012)

Average Wins : 33.1 pips
Average Loss : 23.4 pips
Net Pips : 859 pips
Win Percentage : 62.5%

XAUUSD MACFIBO STATISTICS 2012 (Updated 16/4/2012)

Average Wins : 61.1 pips
Average Loss : 50.1 pips
Net Pips : 1361 pips
Win Percentage : 67%

PDF attached in first page

[sufiansaid]

MACFIBO PERFORMANCE BY SESSIONS

The best session for Macfibo EU so far this year is London US Session, though the number of signals occur during this session is ridiculously small. But I will conclude London and London-US session are the best sessions to trade Macfibo. Total number of trades for London and London-US sessions (excluding Asian-London session) are 35 signals and the winning percentage is 68%… compared to Asian and Asian-London (58% winning percentage). The most obvious difference here is, though the winning percentage is better (by 6%), the number of net pips is 300+ pips lower than the ones we trade Asian until London close.

Screenshot of my spreadsheet (London and London US statistics) :

[alfa2]

As you can see on eur/usd chart enter was worth on friday even 3 hours after sign. I think that more important are S/R levels - but I can be wrong.

Exactly the Friday situation on EU chart that generated my question. I wanted to know what is the longtime experience of Sufiansaid about this. Thanks that he gave the answer, worth to read it because this can happen to anyone, anywhere anytime.

[christinaa]

On the sidelines, I am in an ongoing backtest and paper trade on XAUUSD… which Macfibo perform better in terms of number of wins ofcourse. It is not considered a good performer if you find reversal up to 80 pips not good for your health.

Gold reverses up to 80 pips very often? It reverses by this much and then still hits the 161?

[Confirmado]

@christinaa

Gold reverses up to 80 pips very often? It reverses by this much and then still hits the 161?

I can’t say about how often gold does the reverses, but you can take a look back at the chart and see some of those yourself:

And of course it doesn’t hit 161.8 after such a big reverse, it will most certainly signal to close the trade with 5EMA x 8SMA rule.

[cldchc]

Could you share your xls for us?

[cldchc]

0.10 or 0.15 are a mini lots right?

[Confirmado]

Could you share your xls for us?

If you are talking about the trading records, you can find them for XAUUSD and EURUSD in attachments to the very first post of this thread, thoughtfully provided by Sufiansaid.

0.1 is a mini lot, since a mini lot is defined as 1/10 of a standard lot.

[alfa2]

Hi Sufiansaid! I have red the version 1.1 and I do not know one thing concerning reentry (secondary signal). It is crystal clear how the signal is formed. But what do you suggest then?

Start a new short/long entry?
Consider the sign as a confirmation of the trend and extend 168 TP to 200 or 261?

[Confirmado]

Hi Sufiansaid! I have red the version 1.1 and I do not know one thing concerning reentry (secondary signal). It is crystal clear how the signal is formed. But what do you suggest then?

Start a new short/long entry?
Consider the sign as a confirmation of the trend and extend 168 TP to 200 or 261?

I think you have no option than start a new short/long entry, because that’s what a re-entry is about (of course you should follow the rules for secondary signals stated in v1.1). About choosing level for TP I should say that it depends on additional analysis (S/R, daily pip range, what session you’re trading in etc), but I must admit that choosing 161.8 level is quite safe, although you can aim for more pips if you are sure enough.

PS: sufian, I remember reading your post about you being a little disappointed with the way you expressed information in v1.1, but I want to take the opportunity to thank you for this system update and say that personally for me it was 100% clear and useful, so maybe it is not as bad as you think I must say its great anyway!

[Muneeb]

I am stuck on this Buy signal from 3 hours, what should I do? Close or wait?

[Confirmado]

I am stuck on this Buy signal from 3 hours, what should I do? Close or wait?

No closing signal yet, so keep being there, mate and good luck!

[Muneeb]

No closing signal yet, so keep being there, mate and good luck!

Thank you my friend, I am riding the trade and see what happens

[CryAgony]

Thank you my friend, I am riding the trade and see what happens

What I don’t agree with your trade is the Time where you entered it!

After LC market flats so much… and you are facing Asia that is surely not the home of volatility… and surely not in the trend way usually.

You could have taken this trade tomorrow at LO without so many worries in my opinion

[Yaman]

I have spent a lot of time reading about and then testing peoples systems here on BabyPips but I think this is the first one that has really worked for me. Perhaps it is because it makes sense. I understand moving averages and had already spent some time using Fibs, so to combine the two works for me.
I am being more disciplined than usual using this system because it has such clear entry S/L and T/P rules. I’m even keeping a proper journal for the first time!

I have to say that my back testing results arent brilliant (on 4h time frame) but my demo trading with this system is showing 9 wins from 9 trades (1h time frame). Todays EURUSD trade netting me 35 pips :53:
I must be honest and say there were a couple of 5 pip gains where I have closed before a signal because I feared the loss :31:

But the back testing has been very useful in I am watching the price action more than I used to and learning. Soon I will use V1.1

Thank you Sufiansaid