Macfibo system

[Kevin_LaCoste]

It’s good to see you back, sufian.

[immvp]

Sufian, please come back and trade with us the Macfibo system.

[OMFX]

Hi sufian glad to hear from you. You can try to check with the admin to grant you access to the 1st post. There were some rule changes since you last posted. If not you can always start a new thread and post a link here to the new thread. Just my two cents. Again welcome back & congrats* on your new born.

Greetings everyone…

I won’t even dare myself to apologise and try to explain my long absence (since September apparently) just to provoke anger from Macfibo… so I’ll just post away…

I’ll just respond the last 10-15 posts that I think needs responding.

[B]To those who attempted to compare their own backtest results with my backtest reports and found dissimilarities in results[/B]

There could be several things due to this :

a) Misunderstanding towards some of the trading rules, most common rules that are misunderstood are market time and S/R Lines

b) Mistakes from my side

Since I highly doubt that you would misunderstood the system because it is very simple so I though it could be my mistake. So i re-check again my backtest/trade result report and I found out that I accidentally mixed trade results between ver 1.0 and the latest version published. That could be the cause of unexpected weird results of your trade results with mine. For that I apologise. I never claim I was perfect… immune from mistakes… so I hope you guys can accept that from my part.

However… most of the trade results that I published were based on the following trade parameters :

main signals+secondary signals taken during Asian, Asian+London, London, London+US sessions only
S/R Lines are based on previous day’s high and lows only
If 1.618 is blocked by previous day’s high and low, i TP at 127.2
if not, TP at 1.618

I never tried to ‘sell’ my system hence I see no point to hide any mistakes or weaknesses of this system… or even trying my best to prove to you that my system really is “60% winning system” as my trade reports consistently suggest. Correct me I am wrong but not once did I ever boasted in this thread saying I am the best trader and Macfibo is the bomb or holy grail so I hope I am not ever being accused of that in the last 3-4 pages that I don’t even dare check.

So anyway… I did make mistakes in my trading report but allow me to say that I never had an account blowing losing streak in any month since I started trading Macfibo. But it’s not down to Macfibo… it’s down to my strict money management rule… (which ironically… half of that rule already set in my Macfibo exit strategy)

[B]Did I blow my account in September hence my disappearance?[/B]

Even if I did blow my account, why would I be ashamed of it? Because I am the creator of the system? :32: I never said my system is perfect and prone to choppy markets… it’s a trend following MA crossover system after all… hence I developed a way (filter) to minimize those choppiness by a) not taking any signals in US-only session b) if S/R lines blocking TP levels (mostly happen in thin range markets anyway). Is my filterr the best to solve false crossovers? Ofcourse not… what should be your next worry during choppy markets are to manage your losses… don’t even start to wonder when will be your next 2-3 winning run going to be… manage the ‘now’ first.

So did i blow my account? Nope I did not… Did I have a good month in September? Nope… it was not a good month but its not something to lose sleep on. It’s a business after all… you win some month… you lose some month.

[B]Am I returning for good and not to dissapear again for the nth time??[/B]

Honestly guys… when I published the system… I was in a phase where I want to post and blog. My latest dissapearance was due to my passion for ‘blogging and writing’ completely faded away. However… my passion for helping new traders and trading itself never gone. So I am here now and then… I must admit… its very unlikely for me to publish any of my trader reports and backtest results because honestly I rather spend my 10-15 minutes of my time playing with my newborn baby or make trading plans for my EURUSD, GBPJPY, GOLD and some other trading instruements. Peace.

Those who wants immediate help can e-mail me <[email protected]> or whatsapp me +6738988010. I might respond quicker (intro yourself with your forum name).

p/s : I would love to update the trade rules (deleting the ones that causes confusion but somehow the admiin blocking my access to remove the pdf at the main page… ???)

[sufiansaid]

So, apart from setting the SR line? What else causing too much pain for macfibo testers?

[Rosmo]

Salam,
Nice to see your smiling face again…Nice to be back. Congrats on the newborn…

[ParryMcD]

Thank you, Sufian… Thank you so very much for coming back and making this forum feel lively again… There are very few honest traders like you out there, and losing guidance from people like you causes too much heartburn for us newbies.

I hope you visit his forum and guide us at least once every day, that would be such a huge help, trust me… I’m eagerly waiting for your new PDF (new version).

Oh, and yeah - congratulations on your newborn… It is a magical phase, so enjoy it as much as you can… Maybe you should start teaching him/her MacFibo from this early stage… He/She will be a master in no time… God bless the baby…

[sufiansaid]

There will be no new version unfortunately. . But I want to remove the original PDF format and replace it with much simpler and more objective rules (as mentioned regardong SR lines and secondary signals)

[sufiansaid]

Parry, I rather my children not to be traders

[ParryMcD]

LOL… I can understand, mate…

[Little_One]

Glad to see you back Sufian I would like to return to my forex journey, with which I am struggling, and macfibo seems great to begin with

[sufiansaid]

[B]MANUAL BACKTESTING THE MACFIBO[/B]

I am wondering if anyone even bothered to backtest Macfibo atleast over 300-400 trades (though I know few of you evidently are doing this though). And if you do, I am wondering how exactly do you guys perform this manual backtest and do you even log it in a spreadsheet or not and recording any abnormal/interesting findings whilst you backtest the system.

Objective of Backtesting the Macfibo should be [B][U]to determine the following[/U][/B] :

a) The average performance during trending market
b) The average performance during choppy market (ESPECIALLY THIS)
c) The longest winning streak and it’s accumulative profit
d) The longest losing streak and it’s accumulative losses (ESPECIALLY THIS)
e) The best market session in terms of winning probability
f) The worst market session in terms of losing probability (ESPECIALLY THIS)
g) Account condition after 10 consecutive losses (if any)
h) Account condition after 20 consecutive losses (if any)
.
.
.
.
.

The list can go on. Basically, it is to TEST the system RIGOROUSLY so we know the system capability (and incapability) left to right, inside out. My question, were these questions you asked yourself when you backtest this system (any system for that matter)? I want to share how I do my backtest (for FREE as always!) but is anybody prepare to work hard and do the painful slow process of examining Macfibo VERY VERY thoroughly like it’s the ONLY cure for an outbreak?

I want to know this. I admit the system has it’s weaknesses and some traders suffers losses and blamed the system (I can understand that, I’ve been there before) but my question for the ones who gave up on MACFIBO and the one who currently just know how to complain it’s weaknesses : Have you really backtest this system with asking questions like the above and test it without prejudice (for eg without skipping the bad looking signals) ?

[B]"…I backtest not to find how profitable it is but to find how it can blow my account"[/B] - me :38:

[immvp]

Hi Said, I went live from November with Macfibo. My rules are:

1. Asian Open to London Close(Euro/USD pair only)
2. SL at 38.2%
3. TP for Main Signal at Daily High/Low, 127.2% or 161.8%. For Secondary Signal TP, I follow the rules in the PDF on page 1. Sometimes I TP with a bit of discretionary instead of mechanical because big news will have big effect on any system.
4. I maintain a proper account ratio system (ARS) based on the size of my total account balance. So lets say I have an account of 1,000 dollar account. I only use 0.1 lot.
5. I only trade H1 TF, I never look at the higher time frame for my entries and exits.

The result for November 2012 is a +13% gain and December 2012 is also around +13% gain but not so good on January 2013 with a loss of around -11% but overall I am still up with a lot of profit. I like this system, the only downside is there are a lot of times when you have to TP at 127.2 and that is only a small reward compared to the bigger risk if your SL is hit at 38.2(full loss unless you could hit 161.8% with every winner).

Every system has its ups and downs months. But I am happy I found this thread. Please update us with new rules if there are any changes to the system. Thank you Sufian.

[sufiansaid]

. Please update us with new rules if there are any changes to the system. Thank you Sufian.

There are no updates except what I’ve mentioned in my previous post on S/R Line.

[OMFX]

immvp, for your rule #4 - do you mean to say account of $1,000 or $1,000,000? I’ve tried using MacFibo but not as rigorous and successful as you yet, but I do like its simplicity. I think the areas that need improvement would be SL, TP and MM to be profitable consistently, which I have yet to figure out. Anyway, thank you for sharing.

Hi Said, I went live from November with Macfibo. My rules are:

1. Asian Open to London Close(Euro/USD pair only)
2. SL at 38.2%
3. TP for Main Signal at Daily High/Low, 127.2% or 161.8%. For Secondary Signal TP, I follow the rules in the PDF on page 1. Sometimes I TP with a bit of discretionary instead of mechanical because big news will have big effect on any system.
4. I maintain a proper account ratio system (ARS) based on the size of my total account balance. So lets say I have an account of 1000k. I only use 0.1 lot.
5. I only trade H1 TF, I never look at the higher time frame for my entries and exits.

The result for November 2012 is a +13% gain and December 2012 is also around +13% gain but not so good on January 2013 with a loss of around -11% but overall I am still up with a lot of profit. I like this system, the only downside is there are a lot of times when you have to TP at 127.2 and that is only a small reward compared to the bigger risk if your SL is hit at 38.2(full loss unless you could hit 161.8% with every winner).

Every system has its ups and downs months. But I am happy I found this thread. Please update us with new rules if there are any changes to the system. Thank you Sufian.

[immvp]

I meant 1,000 dollar account, sorry for the confusion. So if you are trading a 1,000 dollar account then it is a mini lot account and you should trade with 0.1 lot only. if you are trading a 100 dollar account then a 0.01 micro lot will be safe. Most important is to protect your capital.

immvp, for your rule #4 - do you mean to say account of $1,000 or $1,000,000? I’ve tried using MacFibo but not as rigorous and successful as you yet, but I do like its simplicity. I think the areas that need improvement would be SL, TP and MM to be profitable consistently, which I have yet to figure out. Anyway, thank you for sharing.

[sufiansaid]

That is a good rule. Regarding SL at 38.2 fibonacci… it makes sure that you will never risk more than you will potentially harvest (1:1 risk reward ratio).

[Rosmo]

Salam Saudara Sufian,
Do you also have infos on Spot Silver. I love and have been following it for quite sometime. Pls advice.

[aander40]

Hi everybody,

I have been following this system for a while. I back-tested and demo for over 8 months. It is a real good and easy system to follow. It comes down to being patience and following the rules. I went live at the beginning of the year and so far so good. I want to thank Said for your help and congrads on your newborn. Don’t be a stranger and pop every now and then in the forum.

[absolutwhoppa]

One of the exit rules is when the 5 EMA crosses the 8 SMA. I’ve noticed a few times that it will cross back over and continue on to hit the original TP. Does everyone re-enter if it crosses back over or is it not worth it?

[immvp]

Once you exit and there is a recross of 5x8 then it is called an entry using Secondary Signal.

One of the exit rules is when the 5 EMA crosses the 8 SMA. I’ve noticed a few times that it will cross back over and continue on to hit the original TP. Does everyone re-enter if it crosses back over or is it not worth it?