Close this GBP hedge for approximately 1% loss in 4 days. Considering 3X leverage is 3% net loss.
December 10th, 2019
Looks like a good time to short Treasury Bond/Bill yields, target 10-year US Treasury Bond 1.77 from quote 1.843 with a duration of up to three months and an estimated close 3-9 weeks. The target 1.77 seeks 4.2% from the close.
JPY short hedge is near the same price it was when posted 5 days ago. My confidence in this position has grown since then.
Increase EURJPY quote 120.6 new average 120.7
Targets remain the same.
December 10th, 2019
Buy EURCHF quote 1.0918 target 1.099 for a 0.6% difference.
Duration 1-4 weeks.
December 18th, 2019
Follow up on JPY sell hedge from 13 days ago which turned out to be a complete success. I see the USDJPY has responded well bullish in the past 8 days. The AUDJPY and EURJPY bounces were starker still being exaggerated December 11th-13th.
USDJPY quote 109.6 from 108.7 for 0.8% gain closing the targeted 0.5% 5 days ago and well within this trades originally intended duration.
AUDUSD quote 75.11 from 74.3 for 1.0% gain closing the targeted 0.5% 5 days ago and well within this trades originally intended 5-20 day duration.
EURJPY quote 121.82 from 120.77 for 0.9% gain closing the targeted 0.5% 5 days ago and well within this trades originally intended 5-20 day duration.
This one hasn’t responded as expected in the past 8 days. Failed, upside possible to 3%, quote 1.92% from 8 days ago 1.843 compared to target 1.77. Abort.
December 21st, 2019
Yet another prudent time to buy the EURUSD for the short-term with a duration of 1-4 weeks. Quote 1.107, target 1.11+.
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December 23,2019
High probability trade = Sell S&P 500 for 3% from today’s quotes.
The “S&P 500” (quote $3,223) made it’s 1.5% gain on highs on top of July '19 highs, I think it’s a prudent time to sell and consider the “Volatility Index” (TVIX) as well.
S&P 500 target $3,100 quote $3,223 for a 3.9% difference. Duration 1-6 weeks, estimated 2-3 weeks.
In that case VIX (Volatility Index for S&P 500) would likely jump to around $15, which it appears likely to; quote $12.78. That would probably put the TVIX (a tradeable ticker, unlike the VIX) around $65, quote $51.15.
Looks like a good time to avoid short-term GBP exposure.
Have a holly jolly Christmas.
December 26, 2019
EURUSD looks like it’s probably about to break-out on the 1-month time-frame, quote 1.11.
December 26, 2019
Outlook USD
Looks like XAU/USD (Gold / US Dollar) is probably going to rally to highs around $1,550 quote $1,515, 1-month lows of $1,460 were reached November 27th, 2019.
That means sell USD vs. EUR, GBP, AUD, etc, with a 1-3 month duration.
December 31st, 2019
This outlook has worked out brilliantly. USD pulled back, especially against the EUR, AUD and GBP. With the way the AUDUSD is on a tear I think this USD pullback will continue for another 3% or so on average versus its’ major peers. I still consider AUDUSD, EURUSD choice instruments to sell the USD.
S&P 500 chart looks very prudent to sell target $3,000, quote $3,216 for a whopping 7.2% difference. Duration 2-8 weeks.
EURUSD performed brilliantly in the past 5 days since that was posted. Quote 1.22 from prior quote 1.11.
Now is a good time to take profits short USD, too.
Looks like a good time to dodge sell-USD positions; for a few days to a few weeks.
January 7th 2019, 5 days since previous reply and quote above
The USD rebounded a solid 1% in the past 5 days versus most majors and now it’s time to make re-entry into this high probability opportunity to Sell-USD considering how strong the performance of Gold has been versus the US Dollar despite the rebound being complete. This also means that it’s probably a very good time to take some profits on gold positions quote $1,571 XAU/USD.
A related outlook to diversify is the Swiss Franc as a counterpart to sell with the US Dollar. Favored currencies to buy versus the Swiss Franc and US Dollar are the Australian Dollar and Euro with a relatively tight time-frame of around 3 weeks. Leverage limits would be wisely set below aggregate 5X-equity.
Buy AUDUSD Quote 0.686
Target 0.695 (1.3% Difference)
Duration 1-6 weeks Estimated 2-3 weeks
Buy AUDCHF Quote 0.667
Target 0.675 (1.1% Difference)
Duration 1-6 weeks Estimated 1-3 weeks
Buy EURUSD Quote 1.113
Target 1.12 (0.6% Difference)
Duration 1-6 weeks Estimated 2-4 weeks
Buy EURCHF Quote 1.082
Target 1.09 (0.7% Difference)
Duration 1-6 weeks Estimated 3-6 weeks
Buy USDCHF Quote 0.971
Target 0.982 (1.1% Difference)
Duration 1-8 weeks Estimated 2-4 weeks
I anticipate there may be reason to increase Sell-USD positions by diversifying with exotic instruments such as USDNOK in approximately 2-4 weeks when prices are more favorable in the short-terms as exotic instruments rallied against the US Dollar in the past 6 months, as I mentioned was a probable scenario in other threads many months ago and it appears likely this reversal-in-trend will continue and complete.
January 8th, 2020
BTC/USD (Bitcoin / US Dollar) Outlook
Bullish BTC/USD to $10,000, quote $8,129, await entry to short-sell until rally is finished, my expectations for the rally to top close to $10,000 before March.
That’s not a buy suggestion, it’s a wait to sell suggestion.
January 14th, 2020
It looks like the US Dollar hasn’t finished (in many cases it hasn’t yet even begun) rebounding against non-major currencies as related to the expectations and speculations posted January 7th, 2020, 7 days ago.
Yet my confidence in the sell USD+CHF / buy EUR+AUD trade idea has increased since I originally posted the trade idea, 7 days ago. I think in a few weeks to a month there will be an opportunity to expand the hedge to more instruments. Until then I’m anticipating a intermediate rebound in the USD versus the Chinese Yuan and exotic currencies like the Russian Ruble with a magnitude of around 2%-4%
January 14th, 2020
Now looks like a good time to buy GBP and JPY vs. USD and CHF, especially because downside seems much more limited than usual for GBPUSD at this time being so far below 2.0, quote 1.302.
Buy GBPCHF
Sell CHFJPY
Buy GBPUSD
Sell USDJPY
The duration 1-6 weeks.
I’ll make a thread for this whole sell USD+CHF trade idea and link it to this thread.
Updated hedge thread Jan '20 Hedge Buy AUD+EUR+GBP+JPY Sell USD+CHF
Sell CHF
Buy GBP
Was successful!
Added
Sell JPY
Buy CAD
Looks like time to focus on USD short exposure, especially versus EURUSD.
Latest alignment is in this order, all with roughly 1% targets and as usual a random time-frame of 2-12 weeks.
Buy - AUD, EUR, CAD, JPY, GBP
Sell - USD, CHF
Hedge - GBP, JPY
Non-Majors
Sell - USD / ZAR (+CHF)
Sell - USD / PLN (+CHF)
Commodities
Crude / USD - Target $65 (quote 57.69) with a 3-9 month duration.
Cotton / USD - Bullish 1-5 year time-frame.
Sugar / USD - Bullish to 0.2 NASDAQ (quote .1528) 1-10 year time-frame.
Coffee / USD - Target 1.20 (quote 1.06) with a 3-9 month duration.
2/29/20
Some of my favorite directions these days are Buy-AUD/JPY, Buy-GBP/CHF, Buy-EUR/CHF and Buy-Dow30. All directions are intended for 1-4 week duration.
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A bear market has begun. Time to wait and see if it becomes a recession.
Choice directions are
Buy-AUD/JPY
Buy-EUR/CHF
June 1st, 2020
The bear market will almost definitely be a recession. I anticipate a 10-year period of suppressed growth and profit margins in most major western markets.
Directions for this 1-6 month period are:
Sell USD/JPY quote 107.6, limit 106.6. Estimated duration 2-8 weeks.
Sell EUR/JPY quote 119.6, limit 117. Estimated duration 2-8 weeks.
Sell Bitcoin/USD quote 9,500, limit 7,500. Estimated duration 1-3 months.
Sell Nasdaq Composite quote $9,500, limit $8,500/$7,500. Estimated duration 1-3 months / 3-9 months.