EUR/USD: BEARISH “HARAMI” PATTERN
12:08 20.02.2018
The last bearish “Harami” led to the current upward price movement. There’s no any reversal pattern so far, which means the pair is likely going to continue moving down in the short term.
All the Moving Averages have been broken, so the market is moving down towards the lower “Window”. If any reversal pattern forms little later on, we could have an upward correction.
USD/JPY: BEARISH "ENGULFING"
14:17 21.02.2018
There’s a bearish “Engulfing”, which has been formed on the upper “Window”. So, we’re likely going to have a local bearish correction. Anyway, bulls will probably try to reach the next “Window” afterwards.
We’ve got bearish patterns such a “Tower” and a “Shooting Star”. Therefore, the market is likely going to decline in the short term.
EUR/USD: "MORNING DOJI STAR"
14:15 21.02.2018
There’s a bullish “Harami” at the last low, so the market is likely going to test the Moving Averages. If a pullback from these lines happens little later on, we could have another decline.
We’ve got a “Morning Doji Star”, so the pair is likely going to reach the 55 & 89 Moving Averages. If these lines act as resistance, we should keep an eye on the lower “Window” as the next bearish target.
[B]EUR/USD Daily analytics[/B]
11:47 22.02.2018
There’s a bullish “Hammer”, which hasn’t been confirmed yet. Therefore, the price is likely going to test the 55 Moving Average, which could act as resistance. If so, there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline.
We’ve got a bullish “Harami” at the last low, but confirmation of this pattern isn’t enough. So, we could have just a local upward correction towards the Moving Averages in the short term.
USD/JPY: “WINDOW” ACTED AS RESISTANCE
11:55 22.02.2018
The upper “Window” acted as resistance, so there’s an “Engulfing” pattern. In this case, we’re likely going to have a bearish correction in the short term. Nevertheless, bulls will probably try to test the “Window” once again afterwards.
The price has reached the 55 Moving Average, but there’s still no any reversal pattern. So, the pair is likely going to continue moving down in the coming hours in the direction of the next support area.
EUR/USD: BULLISH "HARAMI"
11:47 22.02.2018
There’s a bullish “Hammer”, which hasn’t been confirmed yet. Therefore, the price is likely going to test the 55 Moving Average, which could act as resistance. If so, there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline.
We’ve got a bullish “Harami” at the last low, but confirmation of this pattern isn’t enough. So, we could have just a local upward correction towards the Moving Averages in the short term.
HAS OIL STABILIZED?
15:41 23.02.2018
This week was quite unstable for the oil. A rise was followed by a fall and vice versa during the whole week. So let’s look at the events that created such oil volatility.
After the continuation of the last week rise, the oil was falling on Tuesday and Wednesday. The reasons were hidden in the recovering US dollar and anticipated growth of the US production. This week the greenback could find support. Fed’s meeting minutes that strengthened the confidence of soon rate hikes supported the dollar even more. So the oil prices were traded near such lows as WTI - $61 a barrel, Brent - $65 a barrel.
However, the anticipated rise of the US crude oil inventories was not proved. The data was unexpectedly low that led to the surge of the oil. So the prices appeared close to the highest in two weeks.
The US crude stockpiles fell to 1.62 million barrels last week. It was the biggest fall in five weeks. The average forecast was at 2.2 million.
But the data was mixed. The US exports reached 2 million barrels a day, the highest figure since October 2017. Net imports fell below 5 million barrels a day. It put pressure on the oil. During Friday the oil prices were volatile, but they could stabilize and go further.
Stabilization of the oil is based on the significant support from the OPEC and Russia with their output cuts. According to tanker-tracker Oil Movements’ forecast, the exports are anticipated to decline by 300,000 barrels a day to March 10. Moreover, experts are talking about the prolongation of the cuts. According to the International Energy Agency the supply from North America, Brazil and Mexico can cover global demand growth for the next two years. So it will force OPEC and Russia to expand the cuts for longer than it is planned now (until the end of 2018).
Making a conclusion, we can say that at the moment the prices have stabilized: WTI is traded near $63, Brent is near $66.40. OPEC and Russia still support the oil prices with its output cuts policy. However, the strength of the greenback is affecting the oil a lot. It is quite difficult to forecast prices because firstly, the greenback is not stable yet. This week stabilization of the dollar may be ruined next week. Secondly, the production of non-OPEC countries is growing, thus it can lead to the oversupply again. However, Saudi oil minister gave a positive forecast. He said that the oil market is rebalancing, and we can expect the continuation of inventories’ decline this year. So let’s see.
USD/JPY: MOVING AVERAGES ACTING AS RESISTANCE
14:05 23.02.2018
We’ve got a bullish “Hammer”, which hasn’t been confirmed yet. So, the price is likely going to test the closest support once again. Nevertheless, bulls will probably try to reach the 55 Moving Average afterwards.
All the Moving Averages are acting as resistance. Also, there’s a confirmed bullish “Harami”, so we could have a local decline. At the same time, there’s an opportunity to have a new local high afterwards.
EUR/USD Daily Analytics
05:05 26.02.2018
Technical levels: support – 1.2300; resistance – 1.2380.
Trade recommendations:
Buy — 1.2300/10; SL — 1.2280; TP1 — 1.2380; TP2 — 1.2450
Sell — 1.2270; SL — 1.2300; TP1 — 1.2220; TP2 — 1.2180
Reason: expanding bearish Ichimoku Cloud with falling Senkou Span A; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, Tenkan-sen is horizontal; the market is on the strong support of 1.2300.
GBP/USD Daily analytics
05:07 26.02.2018
Technical levels: support – 1.3960; resistance – 1.4010, 1.4050.
Trade recommendations:
Buy — 1.4000; SL — 1.3980; TP1 — 1.4050; TP2 — 1.4100.
Sell — 1.3930; SL — 1.3950; TP1 — 1.3870; TP2 — 1.3810.
Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud with horizontal Senkou Span A and B; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the narrowing channel of the lines; the prices are returned to the Cloud.
USD/CAD ANALYSIS: CORRECTIVE PHASE ONGOING
14:58 26.02.2018
USD/JPY: 21 & 34 MA ACTED AS RESISTANCE
12:11 26.02.2018
The 21 & 34 Moving Averages have acted as resistance, but there’s still no any reversal pattern. So, the pair is likely going to test the 21 MA once again. If a pullback from this line happens little later on, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bearish price movement.
There’s a bullish “Hammer”, which has been confirmed enough, so the market is likely going to test the 21 Moving Average. If this line acts as resistance, bears will probably try to break the last low.
USD/JPY: BULLISH "HIGH WAVE"
13:33 01.03.2018
The last “Evening Star” is still on the table, so the price is likely going to continue declining. Meanwhile, if a pullback from the nearest support area happens, we could have a bullish correction.
There’s a bullish “High Wave”, which has been confirmed enough. So, the pair is likely going to reach the nearest resistance area, which could be a departure point for another decline.
EUR/USD: “INVERTED HAMMER” PATTERN
13:31 01.03.2018
There’s an “Inverted Hammer”, which hasn’t been confirmed yet. So, the price is likely going to test the 21 Moving Average, which could be a departure point for another decline.
We’ve got a “Shooting Star”, which has formed at the last local high. In this case, the pair is likely going to reach the nearest support area. If any bullish pattern forms little later on, there’ll be a moment for an upward correction.
USD/JPY: “SHOOTING STAR” LED TO DECLINE
13:46 02.03.2018
The last “Shooting Star” led to the current decline. The main intraday target is the lower “Window”. If a pullback from this level happens little later on, there’ll be a moment for an upward correction.
The price has been declining since a bearish “Harami” formed on the Moving Averages. There’s no any reversal pattern so far, which means the market is likely going to continue moving down in the short term.
TRADE WARS ARE GOOD AND EASY TO WIN: IS IT REALLY SO?
14:09 05.03.2018
In the world of free trade, trade wars became a rare event. However, now we are coming back to them because of Mr. Trump’s policy.
Let’s start with the definition of a trade war.
Trade war is a negative result of protectionism. It occurs when one country (1) implements trade barriers such as tariffs or quotas against imported goods of another country (2). As the result, that country (2) has to retaliate with the same measures.
Trade wars happen when one country considers another country’s trade policy as unfair or aims to protect the domestic economy and make imported goods less attractive.
So why are we talking about trade wars and how can they affect markets?
Talks appeared after the US president Donald Trump announced that he is going to enact tariffs on steel and aluminum imports next week. It is anticipated to be a 25% tariff on steel and a 10% tariff on aluminum. The USA is the world’s biggest steel importer. So such measures will lead to the redistribution of forces on the steel market.
Mr. Trump said that trade wars are good and easy to win. However, let’s look if it reflects the reality.
It is worth to come back to the history. In 1930 the US president Herbert Hoover signed the Smooth-Hawley Tariff Act that increased tariffs on all manner of imports. In opposition to this, other countries implied tariffs against US goods. It led to such economic disasters as an enormous unemployment, exports, and imports plunge, banks and companies went out of business. So this Act made the Great Depression even worse.
That is why there are doubts that these tariffs will bring something good for the American economy. An imposing of tariffs will be dangerous for the job sector and living standards. Prices will rise, that will hurt the US consumers and put American companies at a serious disadvantage. The unemployment rate will increase. There is a possibility that tariffs will push steel and aluminum manufactures, but there are doubts that these sectors will be able to support an increased demand. Moreover, because of the rising steel and aluminum prices, the cost of raw materials will increase. So other sectors will suffer as well.
What is happening in markets
News about the tariffs has already affected stocks. The stock market fell immediately after Trump announced the soon tariffs’ implementation.
If tariffs will affect the US economy as we described above, it will lead to the depreciation of the greenback. The US dollar will not be able to stabilize its positions.
Furthermore, the imposing of the tariffs will affect not only the American economy but the world in general. A circle of retaliation will damage the global supply chains. Most of the products produced in one country are consists of inputs from other countries.
Even at the moment, the European Commission President Jean-Paul Juncker claimed that they will put tariffs on such American products as Harley-Davidson, bourbon and blue jeans - Levi’s. China is going to implement tariffs on American soybeans and sorghum. And later there will be more retaliation.
Making a conclusion, we can say that the claim of Mr. Trump that “trade wars are good and easy to win” is quite doubtful. According to the history, trade wars led to the economic depressions, unemployment, lack of supply, the suffering of different sectors. As we know, the Fed policy could support the US dollar last week and it is supposed to lead to its appreciation. However, Trump’s protectionism can lead to the fall of the US economy that will affect the greenback. Moreover, destabilization of the US economy will damage stability of the world supply chain and create problems for the manufacturing and labor market in world scales.
USD/JPY: “SHOOTING STAR” LED TO DECLINE
12:25 05.03.2018
The price has been declining since a “Shooting Star” pattern was formed on the Moving Averages. However, there’s a bullish “Harami”, so we could have a local upward correction in the short term. Anyway, bears will probably try to test the lower “Window” afterwards.
The price is consolidating under the Moving Averages. Also, we’ve got an “Engulfing” pattern, so the market is likely going to test the closest resistance area, which could be a departure point for another decline.
XAU/USD Daily Analytics
07:29 06.03.2018
Recommendations:
BUY $1328 SL $1313 TP2 $1346 TP2 $1358
SELL $1302 SL $1317 TP1 $1272 TP2 $1245
On the daily chart of XAU/USD, bulls to continue the rally to 127.2% and 1.618% of the senior and junior AB=CD need to overcome resistance at $1,340 and $1,360 an ounce. On the other hand, another test of support at $1,302 in case of success will lead gold to 88.6% target of the “Shark” pattern.
On H1, a break of resistance at $1,328 will open the way to 113% and 88.6% targets of the “Shark”.
USD/JPY: “SHOOTING STAR” LED TO DECLINE
12:35 06.03.2018
There’s a bearish “Harami”, which has been formed on the 21 Moving Average. So, the market is likely going to decline towards the nearest support area in the short term.
The last “Shooting Star” led to the current decline. Also, there’s a pullback from the 89 Moving Average. Therefore, the price is likely going to decline in the coming hours.
EUR/USD: BEARISH “HARAMI” PATTERN
12:30 06.03.2018
We’ve got a bearish “Harami” pattern, which hasn’t been confirmed yet. So, if a pullback from the Moving Averages happens little later on, there’ll be an opportunity to have a new local high. Meanwhile, if we have another reversal pattern, bears will probably try to deliver a downward correction.
There’re bearish patterns such a “High Wave” and a “Shooting Star”, which both have been confirmed. In this case, the Moving Averages is likely going to act as support anytime soon.
