USD/JPY: MOVING AVERAGES ACTING AS RESISTANCE
14:05 23.02.2018
We’ve got a bullish “Hammer”, which hasn’t been confirmed yet. So, the price is likely going to test the closest support once again. Nevertheless, bulls will probably try to reach the 55 Moving Average afterwards.
All the Moving Averages are acting as resistance. Also, there’s a confirmed bullish “Harami”, so we could have a local decline. At the same time, there’s an opportunity to have a new local high afterwards.
EUR/USD Daily Analytics
05:05 26.02.2018
Technical levels: support – 1.2300; resistance – 1.2380.
Trade recommendations:
Buy — 1.2300/10; SL — 1.2280; TP1 — 1.2380; TP2 — 1.2450
Sell — 1.2270; SL — 1.2300; TP1 — 1.2220; TP2 — 1.2180
Reason: expanding bearish Ichimoku Cloud with falling Senkou Span A; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, Tenkan-sen is horizontal; the market is on the strong support of 1.2300.
GBP/USD Daily analytics
05:07 26.02.2018
Technical levels: support – 1.3960; resistance – 1.4010, 1.4050.
Trade recommendations:
Buy — 1.4000; SL — 1.3980; TP1 — 1.4050; TP2 — 1.4100.
Sell — 1.3930; SL — 1.3950; TP1 — 1.3870; TP2 — 1.3810.
Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud with horizontal Senkou Span A and B; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the narrowing channel of the lines; the prices are returned to the Cloud.
USD/CAD ANALYSIS: CORRECTIVE PHASE ONGOING
14:58 26.02.2018
USD/JPY: 21 & 34 MA ACTED AS RESISTANCE
12:11 26.02.2018
The 21 & 34 Moving Averages have acted as resistance, but there’s still no any reversal pattern. So, the pair is likely going to test the 21 MA once again. If a pullback from this line happens little later on, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bearish price movement.
There’s a bullish “Hammer”, which has been confirmed enough, so the market is likely going to test the 21 Moving Average. If this line acts as resistance, bears will probably try to break the last low.
USD/JPY: BULLISH "HIGH WAVE"
13:33 01.03.2018
The last “Evening Star” is still on the table, so the price is likely going to continue declining. Meanwhile, if a pullback from the nearest support area happens, we could have a bullish correction.
There’s a bullish “High Wave”, which has been confirmed enough. So, the pair is likely going to reach the nearest resistance area, which could be a departure point for another decline.
EUR/USD: “INVERTED HAMMER” PATTERN
13:31 01.03.2018
There’s an “Inverted Hammer”, which hasn’t been confirmed yet. So, the price is likely going to test the 21 Moving Average, which could be a departure point for another decline.
We’ve got a “Shooting Star”, which has formed at the last local high. In this case, the pair is likely going to reach the nearest support area. If any bullish pattern forms little later on, there’ll be a moment for an upward correction.
USD/JPY: “SHOOTING STAR” LED TO DECLINE
13:46 02.03.2018
The last “Shooting Star” led to the current decline. The main intraday target is the lower “Window”. If a pullback from this level happens little later on, there’ll be a moment for an upward correction.
The price has been declining since a bearish “Harami” formed on the Moving Averages. There’s no any reversal pattern so far, which means the market is likely going to continue moving down in the short term.
TRADE WARS ARE GOOD AND EASY TO WIN: IS IT REALLY SO?
14:09 05.03.2018
In the world of free trade, trade wars became a rare event. However, now we are coming back to them because of Mr. Trump’s policy.
Let’s start with the definition of a trade war.
Trade war is a negative result of protectionism. It occurs when one country (1) implements trade barriers such as tariffs or quotas against imported goods of another country (2). As the result, that country (2) has to retaliate with the same measures.
Trade wars happen when one country considers another country’s trade policy as unfair or aims to protect the domestic economy and make imported goods less attractive.
So why are we talking about trade wars and how can they affect markets?
Talks appeared after the US president Donald Trump announced that he is going to enact tariffs on steel and aluminum imports next week. It is anticipated to be a 25% tariff on steel and a 10% tariff on aluminum. The USA is the world’s biggest steel importer. So such measures will lead to the redistribution of forces on the steel market.
Mr. Trump said that trade wars are good and easy to win. However, let’s look if it reflects the reality.
It is worth to come back to the history. In 1930 the US president Herbert Hoover signed the Smooth-Hawley Tariff Act that increased tariffs on all manner of imports. In opposition to this, other countries implied tariffs against US goods. It led to such economic disasters as an enormous unemployment, exports, and imports plunge, banks and companies went out of business. So this Act made the Great Depression even worse.
That is why there are doubts that these tariffs will bring something good for the American economy. An imposing of tariffs will be dangerous for the job sector and living standards. Prices will rise, that will hurt the US consumers and put American companies at a serious disadvantage. The unemployment rate will increase. There is a possibility that tariffs will push steel and aluminum manufactures, but there are doubts that these sectors will be able to support an increased demand. Moreover, because of the rising steel and aluminum prices, the cost of raw materials will increase. So other sectors will suffer as well.
What is happening in markets
News about the tariffs has already affected stocks. The stock market fell immediately after Trump announced the soon tariffs’ implementation.
If tariffs will affect the US economy as we described above, it will lead to the depreciation of the greenback. The US dollar will not be able to stabilize its positions.
Furthermore, the imposing of the tariffs will affect not only the American economy but the world in general. A circle of retaliation will damage the global supply chains. Most of the products produced in one country are consists of inputs from other countries.
Even at the moment, the European Commission President Jean-Paul Juncker claimed that they will put tariffs on such American products as Harley-Davidson, bourbon and blue jeans - Levi’s. China is going to implement tariffs on American soybeans and sorghum. And later there will be more retaliation.
Making a conclusion, we can say that the claim of Mr. Trump that “trade wars are good and easy to win” is quite doubtful. According to the history, trade wars led to the economic depressions, unemployment, lack of supply, the suffering of different sectors. As we know, the Fed policy could support the US dollar last week and it is supposed to lead to its appreciation. However, Trump’s protectionism can lead to the fall of the US economy that will affect the greenback. Moreover, destabilization of the US economy will damage stability of the world supply chain and create problems for the manufacturing and labor market in world scales.
USD/JPY: “SHOOTING STAR” LED TO DECLINE
12:25 05.03.2018
The price has been declining since a “Shooting Star” pattern was formed on the Moving Averages. However, there’s a bullish “Harami”, so we could have a local upward correction in the short term. Anyway, bears will probably try to test the lower “Window” afterwards.
The price is consolidating under the Moving Averages. Also, we’ve got an “Engulfing” pattern, so the market is likely going to test the closest resistance area, which could be a departure point for another decline.
XAU/USD Daily Analytics
07:29 06.03.2018
Recommendations:
BUY $1328 SL $1313 TP2 $1346 TP2 $1358
SELL $1302 SL $1317 TP1 $1272 TP2 $1245
On the daily chart of XAU/USD, bulls to continue the rally to 127.2% and 1.618% of the senior and junior AB=CD need to overcome resistance at $1,340 and $1,360 an ounce. On the other hand, another test of support at $1,302 in case of success will lead gold to 88.6% target of the “Shark” pattern.
On H1, a break of resistance at $1,328 will open the way to 113% and 88.6% targets of the “Shark”.
USD/JPY: “SHOOTING STAR” LED TO DECLINE
12:35 06.03.2018
There’s a bearish “Harami”, which has been formed on the 21 Moving Average. So, the market is likely going to decline towards the nearest support area in the short term.
The last “Shooting Star” led to the current decline. Also, there’s a pullback from the 89 Moving Average. Therefore, the price is likely going to decline in the coming hours.
EUR/USD: BEARISH “HARAMI” PATTERN
12:30 06.03.2018
We’ve got a bearish “Harami” pattern, which hasn’t been confirmed yet. So, if a pullback from the Moving Averages happens little later on, there’ll be an opportunity to have a new local high. Meanwhile, if we have another reversal pattern, bears will probably try to deliver a downward correction.
There’re bearish patterns such a “High Wave” and a “Shooting Star”, which both have been confirmed. In this case, the Moving Averages is likely going to act as support anytime soon.
GBP/USD Daily Analytics
07:54 07.03.2018
Technical levels: support – 1.3820; resistance – 1.3930.
Trade recommendations:
Sell — 1.3870; SL — 1.3890; TP1 — 1.3820; TP2 — 1.3770.
Reason: narrowing bearish Ichimoku Cloud with rising Senkou Span A; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; a market reached the resistance of the Cloud’s bottom border.
[B]EUR/USD Daily Analytics[/B]
12:55 07.03.2018
There’s a “Three Methods” pattern, which has been confirmed. Also, there’s no any reversal pattern, so the market is likely going to test the next resistance area. If a pullback from this zone happens little later on, there’ll be a moment for a bearish correction.
We’ve got a bearish “Shooting Star” right under the upper “Window”. In this case, there’s an opportunity to have a local correction towards the nearest support, which could be a departure point for another bullish price movement.
USD/JPY: 21 MA ACTED AS RESISTANCE
12:57 07.03.2018
The 21 Moving Average has acted as resistance, so the price is declining. The main bearish target is the lower “Window”. If a pullback from this level happens, we could have an upward correction afterwards.
There’s a bullish “Hammer”, so there’s an opportunity to have a local upward correction. Meanwhile, if a pullback from the Moving Averages happens little later on, bears will probably try to deliver a new local low.
EUR/USD: BEARISH "SHOOTING STAR"
12:55 07.03.2018
There’s a “Three Methods” pattern, which has been confirmed. Also, there’s no any reversal pattern, so the market is likely going to test the next resistance area. If a pullback from this zone happens little later on, there’ll be a moment for a bearish correction.
We’ve got a bearish “Shooting Star” right under the upper “Window”. In this case, there’s an opportunity to have a local correction towards the nearest support, which could be a departure point for another bullish price movement.
EUR/JPY Daily Analytics
06:54 08.03.2018
Recommendation:
SELL 133.40 SL 133.95 TP1 132.40 TP2 131.30
SELL 134.20 SL 134.75 TP1 133.20 TP2 132.40 TP3 131.30
On the daily chart, EUR/JPY after reaching 113% target of the “Shark” made a natural pullback. Now it’s transforming into 5-0. Usually, correction towards 50% of the wave CD is used for selling.
On H1 of EUR/JPY, a break of resistance at 132 will trigger the “Shark” and increase the odds of the “Wolfe waves” pattern. The target of the later will allow finding a convergence area 134.15-134.3.
USD/JPY: BULLISH “TOWER” PATTERN
12:18 08.03.2018
The 21 Moving Average is acting as resistance, but there’s a “Morning Star” pattern, which has formed at the last low. So, we should keep an eye on the 55 MA, which could be a departure point for another decline.
There’s a bullish “Tower” pattern, so the price is likely going to continue moving up. The main intraday target is the upper “Window”, which could act as resistance.
EUR/USD: BEARISH "HIGH WAVE"
12:17 08.03.2018
There’s a bearish “High Wave”, which has been confirmed. So, the market is likely going to test the 55 Moving Average, which could be a departure point for another upward price movement.
The upper “Window” has acted as resistance, so the price is declining. The main intraday target is the 144 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line happens little later on, there’ll be a moment for a bullish price movement.
