Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

EUR/JPY Daily Analytics
06:44 22.03.2018
Recommendation:

SELL 129.60 SL 130.05 TP1 128.60 TP2 127.60 TP3 126.00

BUY 132.15 SL 131.6 TP1 133.15 TP2 134.45 TP3 136.70

On the daily chart of EUR/JPY, a break of resistance at 132.25-132.50 will trigger the “Bat” pattern with a target at 88.6%. On the other hand, a slide to March minimum will allow bears to resume the decline towards 200% target of AB=CD.

On H1, a “Shark” is transforming into 5-0. A successful test of support at 129.60 will increase the risks of a further selloff. On the other hand, advance above resistance at 132.15 will create grounds for correction.

EUR/USD Daily Analytics
07:45 22.03.2018
Technical levels: support – 1.2300, 1.2350; resistance – 1.2400.

Trade recommendations:

Buy — 1.2360; SL — 1.2340; TP1 — 1.2400; TP2 — 1.2450
Reason: expanding bearish Ichimoku Cloud with rising Senkou Span A; a cancelled dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen with the rising lines; the market are returned into the positive area.

GBP/USD: POUND IS NEAR MAIN RESISTANCE
07:46 22.03.2018

Technical levels: support – 1.4140; resistance – 1.4200, 1.4250.

Trade recommendations:

Sell — 1.4200; SL — 1.4220; TP1 — 1.4140; TP2 — 1.4080.
Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud with rising Senkou Span A and B; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen with the rising lines; the market was supported by Kijun-sen, but now is overbought and it’s under strong resistance.

EUR/USD: THE BULLS RETURNING TO MARKET
07:45 22.03.2018

Technical levels: support – 1.2300, 1.2350; resistance – 1.2400.

Trade recommendations:

Buy — 1.2360; SL — 1.2340; TP1 — 1.2400; TP2 — 1.2450
Reason: expanding bearish Ichimoku Cloud with rising Senkou Span A; a cancelled dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen with the rising lines; the market are returned into the positive area.

AUD/USD Daily Analytics
07:52 23.03.2018
Technical levels: support – 0.7690; resistance – 0.7730, 0.7780

Trade recommendations:

Sell — 0.7730; SL — 0.7750; TP1 — 0.7610; TP2 — 0.7580.
Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud with horizontal Senkou Span A and B; a cancelled dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen with the horizontal lines; the market had returned to negative area.

EUR/GBP Daily Analytics
07:55 23.03.2018
Recommendations:

SELL 0.8785 SL 0.884 TP1 0.8695 TP2 0.8525 TP3 0.845

SELL 0.881 SL 0.8865 TP1 0.8695 TP2 0.8525 TP3 0.845

On the daily chart of EUR/GBP, there is a continuation of a medium-term consolidation in the range of 0.8695-0.9015 within the “Spike and ledge” pattern. The first break of its bottom line was unsuccessful, however, bears still hope and are ready to repeat the break after a small pullback.

On H1, there is a transformation of the AB=CD pattern to 5-0. Usually, pullbacks in the direction to 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8% are used for a formation of short positions.

EUR/USD Daily Analytics
08:07 26.03.2018
Technical levels: support – 1.2350; resistance – 1.2400.

Trade recommendations:

Buy — 1.2360; SL — 1.2340; TP1 — 1.2400; TP2 — 1.2450
Reason: expanding bullish Ichimoku Cloud with rising Senkou Span A; a new golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen with the rising lines; the prices are fixed in the positive area supporting by the Cloud.

[B]GBP/USD Daily Analytics[/B]
12:20 26.03.2018

There’s a “Double Bottom” pattern, so the market is likely going to reach another resistance at 1.4217 - 1.4277 in the short term. If we have a pullback from these levels, there’ll be an opportunity to have a bearish correction.

The 34 Moving Average has acted as support. In this case, we should keep an eye on the next resistance at 1.4233 - 1.4277 as an intraday target. A pullback from this level could be a starting point for a decline.

[B]EUR/USD Daily analytics[/B]
13:24 26.03.2018

There’s still no any reversal pattern so far because all the last candles are bullish. In this case, the market is likely going to test the nearest resistance area, which could be a departure point for a bearish correction.

We’ve got a bullish “Three Methods” pattern, which pushed the price higher. Therefore, the pair is likely going to reach the upper “Window” in the coming hours.

USD/JPY: “INVERTED HAMMER” PATTERN
13:29 26.03.2018

There’s a “Piercing Line”, which has been formed at the last local low. So, we should keep an eye on the Moving Averages as an intraday bullish target.

We’ve got an “Inverted Hammer”, which has been confirmed by the last “Three Methods” pattern. So, bulls are likely going to test the Moving Averages. If a pullback from these lines happens little later on, there’ll be a moment for another decline.

WEEKLY FOREX OUTLOOK: MAR. 26-30
11:29 26.03.2018

US President Donald Trump signed a presidential memorandum that will target up to $60 billion of Chinese products with tariffs. If China comes up with countermeasures, trade tensions will escalate further.

Concerns about trade wars have overshadowed central bank policy. The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate to 1.75% and signaled a relatively upbeat outlook for the economy. This is exactly the outcome the market was expecting, and the US dollar didn’t get any strength from the event.

The US dollar index declined and looks vulnerable for 2018 lows in the 89.20 area.

In the current uncertain environment, traders prefer low-risk assets like the Japanese yen, especially in pairs like AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY. As for USD/JPY, if it settles below the key level of 105.00, we’ll see a deeper decline.

GBP/USD rose to the highest levels since January above 1.4200. The pound went up as the European Union and Britain agreed on a Brexit transition deal and the UK released strong wage growth figures. Two members of the Bank of England unexpectedly voted for a rate hike. However, traders focused on the idea that rates will rise only very slowly, so the pound retreated down by the end of the week. Traders continue to expect a rate hike in May, so the meeting didn’t really bring any surprises.

The 200-week MA creates resistance near 1.43. GBP/USD may retrace down to 1.3930 and 1.38.

EUR/USD continued consolidation between 1.24 and 1.22. Long-term uptrend remains in place, although the pair has lost its bullish momentum. European PMIs came below expectations. As a result, we expect the euro to continue trading close to the current levels.

Economic calendar

The economic calendar for the upcoming days is very light. Friday will be a bank holiday in many countries because of approaching Easter. The few important releases include US consumer confidence on Tuesday, American GDP on Wednesday and British current account together with Canadian GDP and US core PCE price index on Thursday.

USD/CAD Daily Analytics
06:56 27.03.2018
Recommendation:

SELL 1.2805

SL 1.286

TP1 1.269 TP2 1.2585 TP3 1.243

On the daily chart of USD/CAD, the pair pulled back after reaching 127.2% target of AB=CD. Bulls failed to keep the pair above the important area of 1.2914-1.2922. This points at their weakness. Triggering of the “Shark” pattern will increase the risks of correction towards 1.2685, 1.2580, 1.2430 and 1.2345.

On H1, a break of support at 1.2805 will trigger the “Shark” and AB=CD. Their targets of 113% and 224% are at 1.2585 and 1.269.

GBP/USD: “DOUBLE TOP” PATTERN
08:49 27.03.2018

There’s a “Double Top” pattern, so the market is likely going to test the nearest support at 1.4144. However, if we see a pullback from this line afterwards, bulls will probably try to reach the next resistance at 1.4277 - 1.4344.

There’re two “V-Top” patterns in a row. So, the pair is likely going to achieve the 55 Moving Average, which could be a starting point for another bullish price movement.

EUR/USD: “V-TOP” PATTERN
08:48 27.03.2018

The main trend is still bullish, but there’s an opportunity to have a bearish correction in the short term. So, we should keep an eye on the nearest support at 1.2412 - 1.2387 as an intraday target.

There’s a “V-Top” pattern, so the pair is likely going to test the closest support at 1.2412 in the coming hours. If a pullback from this level happens little later on, there’ll be a moment to have another upward price movement.

GBP/USD Daily Analytics
07:02 28.03.2018
Technical levels: support – 1.4150; resistance – 1.4200, 1.4250.

Trade recommendations:

Buy — 1.4160/70; SL — 1.4150; TP1 — 1.4250; TP2 — 1.4290.
Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, but the lines Senkou Span A and B are horizontal; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen was cancelled, but the prices above the strong support of the lines.

USD/CHF Daily Analytics
07:37 28.03.2018
Recommendations:

BUY 0.951 SL 0.9455 TP1 0.961 TP2 0.9715 TP3 0.986

SELL 0.9435 SL 0.949 TP1 0.936 TP2 0.9335 TP3 0.927

On the daily chart of USD/CHF, the pair needs to break the March high to continue rising. On the contrary, an implementation of the “three Indians” pattern will increase risks of a long-term bearish trend.

On H1, there is a short-term consolidation in the range of 0.9435-0.951. If bulls manage to break its upper boundary, the rally will continue. Vice versa, the break of the support at 0.9435 will increase risks of decline to the 88.6% target of the “Shark” pattern.

GOLD (XAU/USD) ENDING A POSSIBLE CORRECTIVE MOVE
18:40 28.03.2018

Gold has been trading in a bearish tone below the 50 SMA at H1 chart following the US GDP data release during March 28th session. Currently, we’re seeing a corrective move to take place in favor of the overall bullish structure and if the XAU/USD pair touches the 65% Fibonacci level at 1324, it could gather momentum to resume the bullish bias towards the -23.6% Fibonacci area at 1368.

RSI indicator is in the oversold territory, calling for an imminent rebound.

BITCOIN (BTC/USD): STRONG BIDS PLACED AROUND 7,586
18:36 28.03.2018

Bitcoin continues to find support above the 7586 level, where buyers are actively concentrated and trying to resume the upward bias in the short term. Currently, there is a slight consolidation below the 50-hour moving average, which suggests that the current formation is that of a bearish pattern.

In Denmark, Danske Bank has announced that it will prohibit the trading of cryptocurrencies on its platforms, although they will still allow credit card transactions to customers in general. In addition, a regulated entity of the United States has sent a reminder to its members to report all activities that concern cryptocurrency.

The Parabolic SAR continues in favor of the bulls, although we are observing that this indicator is showing signs of weakness for the short term. The resistance of 8041 continues being an important barrier to face, reason why the rupture of the level of 7586 will be key to determine the following way of the BTC.

What do we expect?

According to our forecasts in the short-term, the BTC/USD pair aims to enter a consolidation stage above 7586, so that buyers could help push upwards towards the 200-hour moving average as the first objective. However, if such support comes to cede, the Bitcoin could rush to the level of 7068.

EUR/USD Daily analytics
07:28 30.03.2018
Recommendation:

SELL 1.2245

SL 1.2300

TP1 1.2095 TP2 1.2050 TP3 1.1965

On the daily chart, EUR/USD may form a unique chart pattern: a wedge inside a wedge. Point 5 of the junior pattern “Widening wedge” corresponds to 23.6% of the senior pattern’s wave 4-5. This creates a powerful entry point on the break of support at 1.2245-1.2250.

On H1 of EUR/USD, there’s a combination of “Spike and ledge” and “Widening wedge”. A break of the lower border of the consolidation range 1.2245-1.2445 will increase the possibility of a “Gartley” pattern.

AUD/USD Daily Analytics
06:55 02.04.2018
Technical levels: support – 0.7610, 0.7670; resistance – 0.7690

Trade recommendations:

Sell — 0.7660; SL — 0.7680; TP1 — 0.7610; TP2 — 0.7580.
Reason: expanding bearish Ichimoku Cloud with falling Senkou Span A and B; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but narrowing channel of Tenkan-Kijun; the prices are corrected to Kijun’s support and now may continue the existing downtrend bounced from the lines.