Morgan Stanley is looking to buy USD/JPY dips amid signs that JPY is once again being used as a funding currency, and the Bank of Japan is expected to increase asset purchases by Y10 trillion. Anything more aggressive than this will just weigh on JPY even further. The bank says the 200-DMA at 79.50 should lend support, but if it is breached the 100-DMA at 78.80 will be the next prop.
Citi sees upside in EUR/CHF and says there is a credible risk that the SNB could successfully raise the current 1.20 floor in the cross, for the first time since the introduction of the line in the sand fourteen months ago. “With euro-zone tail risk much lower than in May and June, the SNB’s 1.20 floor for EUR/CHF looks less binding than at any time since it was initiated,” Citi says, adding that market pressure could nudge EUR/CHF organically higher. “This tells us that there is a credible risk that the SNB could succeed in raising the floor for EUR/CHF for the first time since the introduction of the floor,” Citi says, adding its “panic fair value” model suggests the cross should be at 1.30-1.35, as market conditions justify these levels.
Barclays turns cautiously bearish on EUR/GBP after last Friday’s confirmation of a key-bearish week. However, the bank is not rushing in to a short position as near-term signals point to consolidation. Now at 0.8032, the bank says it will look to fade upticks toward 0.8065 with a stop above 0.81. On the downside, a break below 0.8030 would target the range-lows of 0.7920.
Morgan Stanley recommends buying NOK/SEK after the rate announcement on Wednesday by the Norges bank.
Morgan Stanley recommends buying NOK/SEK after the rate announcement on Wednesday by the Norges bank.[/QUOTE]
The Norges bank interest rate announcement is due today at 13:00 GMT
CitiFX suggest BOJ to continue expanding its easing measures. JPY weakness should continue in the broader term against the major currencies. (In my opinion could be a good carry trade if there will be big dips)
French Senate voted against the government’s budget plans for the next five years. Expect EUR to weaken within the next 48 hours as it will have an impact for the intermediate term (in my opinion)
If you appreciate the market updates I am providing please give me a big ‘LIKE’ so I know you are content with my updates :59:
Definitely helping. Thanks for the updates.
RBS favors fading GBP/USD moves above 1.6144 as this level has dictated the top end of the range recently. Once the pound begins to fall back, the bank has immediate targets of 1.6085 and 1.6040.
Czech central bank surrpised the market and cuts rates. I have been mentioning in the past 2 weeks to buy EUR/CZK. Traders that bought EUR/CZK made a good return on their investment as the pair continued to press higher in the several days. Congrats 
USD/CAD should fall to 0.9940 after this morning’s good spate of US data, says Jameson Bank’s Chris Nicholson. USD/CAD should continue to push to lower into the 0.9900s with 0.9940 seen as the downside limit, Nicholson says . Jameson’s order books have USD buyers under the 0.9950 market and stops just above parity at 1.0020. “As long as we stay within range, these are good levels to buy USD,” Nicholson says. USD/CAD now at 0.9974, down 0.23%
“The Mexican peso is a currency we love, but with the US elections here now, there’s no reason to be long the peso,” says Jose Wynne of Barclays. The reason is simple: the US fiscal cliff. Irrespective of who gets elected, the looming US deficit is expected to put the peso on the defensive as the US economy adjusts. “The carry in the peso is not that high to compensate for the risk,” Wynne says, and suggested going long the Brazilian real and Indian rupee instead
NONFARM PAYROLLS TRADING STRATEGY
CAD/JPY has maintained its bullish trend following strong JPY weakness. CAD/JPY technical analysis reveals the FX cross is due to correct lower. Overbought intraday indicators concrete my views for a bearish reversal as well as the Japanese reversal pattern, ‘Hanging Man.’ However, despite the expected weakness I will label the price action as corrective weakness before the resumption of the uptrend re-emerge from the weakness. There is fairly strong support at 80.04, which in my view should support any potential weakness and the bullish target for CAD/JPY trading strategy is seen at 80.90. The 55MA (in pink) may attempt a bullish cross with 200MA (in orange) if 80.04 holds, which reaffirms the bullish outlook for CAD/JPY.
The non-farm payrolls at 12:30pm GMT will be the focal point for CAD/JPY technical analysis. I will highlight that there is faint talk the previous figure for the non-farm payrolls may be revised higher but I base my analysis solely on the graph.
(Analysis by Matti Williamson, TradingQuarter)
Further pressure on CZK to come says Citi emerging market strategist Luis Costa. EUR/CZK is unlikely to spike higher he says but does add that we could see the cross test the 25.60-25.70 levels. EUR/CZK currently at 25.27. Adds that Czech government bonds have held onto Thursday’s gains but have not moved substantially higher in early trade Friday. Costa notes that the Czech curve is one of the steepest in Eastern Europe and that this will probably attract the attention of the likes of international investors.
Danske Bank looking to buy GBP/JPY dip to 128.90 if seen, for a rebound to 130.80, with a stop down at 128.3. (Some traders will say this is a high spread, heard this before. my spread for GPBJPY is 3.5 pips)
RBS says EUR/USD breakdown is worth following as the short-term range has been breached and the weekly close was bearish. This gives the rate a heavy bias for this week, with a 1.2610 target, with big support on the way down is 1.2756 and 1.2742. Now at 1.2785, RBS says stops should be left just above 1.2850.