Market normality

Hey Tommor.

Looks like normality went negative this past week. I got 46%.
Here’s a look inside the numbers.

What’s considered normal again?
Looking at the table on the right shows how many of their 7 respective pairs are trending strong. That is, the 20 EMA price line above it’s 50 EMA price line.

Interesting thing to note about this past week, is that we haven’t had many changes. You can see the line up only has one change. The AUD and the CAD changed places. Which means that on the AUD/CAD pair the 20 & 50 EMA lines crossed. Making the aggregate amount of CAD pairs one more higher (6), and the AUD pairs one more lower (5).

So therefore, what’s considered normal hasn’t really changed, in this context.

The week went more contrary to this. Which means the Comms were more of a sell, and the majors were more of a buy.

But it wasn’t enough to turn the aggregate results, cause these placements haven’t changed much.

That’s not to say things might be changing though. This week went more safe haven buying than anything. Let me prove this.

Top table is daily results. Bottom table is the weekly cumulative line up.
Disregard the CNY.

Couple things I want to point out.
The USD was the most bought currency this week (+5.62%).
And for the most part, all other currencies were mostly a sell, with only one exception (GBP +1%). Very interesting.

And then look at the top table. Tuesday through Thursday was nothing but safe haven buying. Look at the CHF, JPY, USD. And on the other side of that is the Comms, which were dragging bottom. All that spells risk off sentiment, for the 3 inside days.

But again, added all up shows you that most of the currency’s got sold off this week. It was a USD dominated week. Plain and simple.

Now, look back up top. See how the CHF and the USD are sitting 4th & 5th place? Their strength showed this past week. But. All this makes for a very mixed market. Especially having the JPY sitting last. They are, lest we forget, a safe haven currency. And if they ever decide to come off last, then it’ll be over. Surely they’ll boost the other 2 higher. And then eventually make the Comms come off the top.

Be we have to see it.
As of right now, I don’t see it.

All we (I) want to do is know what is normal.
See whether the market changes from this.
Hope the market will continue a trend, one way or the other.


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Hi guys.

Let’s talk normality.
Looks like we have another negative week. 46%. Same as last week.
Here’s what’s inside.

Well, I finally changed some of this so that we can understand it better. Finally.

I’m talking about that top row. It’s the daily results, with the entire week’s results over to the right. Now we are gonna to see how many pairs (out of the 28 total) went positive for the day, and how many went negative for the day. Then the %'s underneath. You can’t get any simpler than this.

Let’s look at it. Anything interesting, about this past week?

  • Monday — A majority of all of the pairs ended with their normal trend (17 pairs). That’s 61% of the entire market went trending. This was a continuation of how Friday went. And remember, last week (as a whole) went net negative trending.
  • Tuesday — Turn-around Tuesday came in exactly the opposite. Only 10 of the 28 pairs went normal. 36%. Back to the non normal environment we’ve seem to be in lately.
  • Wednesday — Continued along the same sentiment. Non normal. 2 days in a row now. 29%.
  • Thursday — Finally went back to some normal. Same as Monday. Same amount also.
  • Friday — Went back to non normal. Counter trending.

-3 days went counter trending
-2 days went trending

So then, to compare their prevailing trends to last weekend at this time, did we have much changes?
Take a look at the right.

The only thing that changed was the USD and the CHF pairs switched. Meaning, the USD/CHF pair went to a stronger USD. Crossed 20 & 50 EMA lines. So now the USD has 4 of their pairs trending Dollar strong and the CHF, lost one, to having 3 now.

Well, the bigger picture shows that the Comm currency’s are still having more of their pairs trending stronger than all the other Major currency’s.

Don’t get me wrong. We’ve been having a strong USD lately. But not enough to start changing the longer term trends. Cause remember, the Dollar was top dog on Oct 8th (can’t see it there cause I didn’t go back far enough. Which you can if you look at my last weeks post). But it’s been dropping since then. Now maybe starting to climb back on up.

Here’s a quick summary of how this week went. % wise. Comparatively.
Top table is the daily individual results. Bottom is cumulative weekly running %'s.

The GBP came in the most bought currency +8.25% for the week.
The USD was next at +5.21% for the week.

Interesting to see that the JPY took 2 complete days. Wed, Fri.
And the most sold off currencies goes to the EUR and the AUD (-7.07%, -7.90%).

Well, regarding normality, all I can say is…good luck.
It’s very tough out there.

Cause on one hand you have the normal prevailing trend still intact. Speaking to the fact that they (the Comms) can still possibly produce some strength, moving forward.

But on the other hand, what seems to be trending is the non normal sentiment. To be more specific, it’s the USD that’s getting more stronger. Cause remember that they were on the down slope for a while there (end of Oct into beginning of Nov) . And have not continued this move.

It’s a tough market. What can I say.

If I would give some advise, it would probably be to say that you got to look for some specific opportunities. For instance, keep an eye on the JPY. They’ve been so low all year long. Will they want to add onto their gains of recent? 5 most bought days this month already. That is saying a lot.

Well, I think that’s the biggest anomaly going so far.

My two cents worth.


Hi Mike -

My apologies for absence, been involved in another (non-trading) project that took a lot of persistence.

Your analysis of the last week is spot on. I actually scored the week at 50%, exactly neutral trending, but the break-down of the individual days and the currencies’ behaviours tally with what you have said.

These sure are interesting times. I don’t think we’re out of them yet. I think these are good times for moving nimbly - adjusting stops to protect profit and taking the profits early.


A 52% score for the week, and only 2 of the 5 days were negative.

But don’t let this fool you…

I don’t mind admitting I’m flat right now and am planning to take several hard looks at charts this weekend to see whether I even want to bother with the risk of any new orders. At first glance I kind of doubt it.


Hey Tommor.

Wow. Well, I think this is the first time we diverged from the numbers.
I got a score of 44%.

We agree about the 2 days only being negative. You can see it there, top row, last 2 days. Both days came in having only 9 of the 28 pairs ending normal for the day. Which means that 19 went the other way.

Anyway. What a week.
What we have as normal has changed now. Take a look at which currency has all of their 7 pairs trending their way. 20 over their 50 EMA.

The USD.
All we have to do is look back at our previous posts. It’s been something coming all along.
This is what I said last week.

Then this is what I said the week before that (2 weeks ago).

And then, this is what I said the week just before that one (3 weeks ago).

All that is just to point out that we are watching a slow moving, longer time frame perspective. The good thing of it is, we are not being whipped sawed back and forth too much at all. In fact, none of that. But it is a slow, long process, in which the trends are taking.

I got to say though Tommor.
If you don’t mind, I think change is definitely coming, if not here already.
Check this out.
The month of Nov.

The top table is the month running (daily cumulative). And forget the CNY. We’ll keep with our 8 currencies. I’ll tell ya what I see.

  • The USD & JPY most bought currency’s this month. +17.80%, +17.69%. And this all started soon after NFP Friday (5th). Domination ever since.
  • The Comm currency’s slipping majorly. Just look at the %'s, and compare them all.
  • Classic risk off scenario. It can’t get any more clearer. Look at the latest line up. Top 3 are the safe havens. Bottom 3 are the risk on Comms.
  • This past Friday was a HUGE moving day.

The JPY moved like they never moved before (this year). March 23rd was their nearest biggest day. +9.01%. How’s 14.46% feel now?

This was last weekend.

I have to say it Tommor. This is a game changer. Whatever happened on Friday is setting the stage for some things to come, I believe. See. First off, the day before we were on holiday (Thanksgiving). Our markets were closed, and the volume was very, very low. But you just wouldn’t believe the volume amount that came in on Fri.

It was the 3rd highest volume day this year (last day of Feb, and Mar 5th higher).

We are getting real close to months end. That is noteworthy, and could explain it.

Another very interesting point to be asked, is about why the USD was not bid up on Friday?

Have you all seen what the stock markets did on Friday?
Bad all the way around.
Since when do they fall in line with what the other markets are doing? Not lately anyway. Plus, I think all the bond yields crashed also. We’re talking across the board risk off sentiment.

Well, we got 2 more days to go in this month. It is going to get crazy, I think.
I mean, we’re heading into the years end. And I think the safe havens will have the upper hand.

I definitely was wrong a few weeks back. Thought the Comms could take this last quarter. No doubt they tried. Surely. At the start of it. But not now. After what happened last Friday, forget it.

And who wants to talk about what’s going on in the world today? If there ain’t a catalyst upon us now, there never will be.

We’ll just have to see what straw it will be that breaks the camels back.

That’s a little how I’m thinking.
But you have to see the facts though.

Oh…I got one more thing I think was important to share.
Here’s a look at the last 30 days. It’s a perspective. Between the safe haven currency’s and the Comm currency’s. Check this out.


  • The CHF began the strength. Surely by the end of Oct they were very positive.
  • It took the USD and the JPY a little while to get some traction (were in negative territory). Got back up to break even by NFP Friday (5th).
  • The USD took off next. The week following NFP.
  • The JPY went back to doing what they do best.
  • The CHF came back down also.
  • The USD dominated higher.
  • On Friday the CHF & JPY both join up to the USD. But what a move by the JPY!

How about the other side of things.
The Comms.


  • If I would have gone back to the beginning of Oct you would have seen the AUD & NZD much elevated. Needless to say, their both positive through Oct.
  • Nov changes the story. Heading into NFP the NZD retraced a little and ready to move higher. But in the week of the 8th the market says no way.
  • And what a drop off, in the most recent. Huh?

I think we are seeing a change in trend, right before our very own eyes.
These are parts of the whole. The sentiment is lining up.
So much agreement going on. Even the equity markets! (For a change).
But we’ll see how long that lasts.

My two cents.


Absolutely Mike, the game has changed. In fact its like we’ve swapped ends, changed the shape of the ball and moved the goals all at once.

I’m probably going to wait for the dust to settle after Friday’s stampede and then get back in the game mid-week. I can stand a few days calm.


Yes, I agree.
IMO, AUDUSD is a bellwether pair. Around the 1st of this months the relative strength chart of each currency reversed direction and a week later continued to move away from each other very strongly.
To me that was a definite indicator of an overall trend change, away from Comms.
Based on the above, I opened two shorts on my demo: AUDJPY on 9/11 and AUDUSD on 11/11.
I know Tommor likes to see an established trend first but I think it is important to catch the trend as early as possible - in its strongest phase.
This is early in my analysis but it is showing some good results.


[Removed for Forums policy violation] changes in the log values of forex rates, price indices, and stock prices are assumed to be normally distributed!

I’ve got no evidence to argue with that, but its hard to see how it could be dependable enough to help trading across a few days or weeks per trade.

I find after an extraordinary move like those we saw on Friday that the chances are about 50:50 of either an early strong continuation of the move, followed by a hefty retracement, or a hefty retracement followed by late strong continuation of the move.

For me there is no greater probability of one over the other so I’m sitting out.


Hi Tommor and Mike
I would like to pose a question:
We know that the market can be in a risk-on or risk-off phase. During risk-on, for example, USD, JPY and CHF are strong and Comms are weak.
Are there any other identifiable distinct phases? For example, when EUR and GBP are strong which currencies do we expect to be weak - USD?
The reason I am asking this is to try to define some natural rhythms of the market to see if we can identify trends and ride the wave. And when the market is ranging or is not in one of the identifiable rhythmic states, we will stay out.

Really appreciate the work you put into your posts!

What are the natural rhythms of the market is exactly what we’re trying to pick out. Conclusions are tentative, partly because this sort of general analysis needs a lot of data, partly because the market itself reacts to itself. So even I myself and not 100% certain we’ll unlock a key secret. But at the least we can identify when extra caution might be needed.

Looking at this thread in combination with Dennis’s on the individual currencies’ strengths and weaknesses would be good - see Trading the Trend with Strong Weak Analysis

A trend-positive week, at 63%. Highest score since September, which is ironic considering the market tumult we’ve dived into more recently. And its a high score even amongst the positive weekly scores, most of them are well below this level.

The immediate result is some nice profits from trend-following positions I had trickled money into since Black Friday. The secondary result is I won’t enter any new entry orders this weekend, prefer to wait for trend retracements for opportunity.

For the wider market, where are we going? I think we continue, but less steeply. Commodities will fall, but not as fast, and I note oil is recovering: safe havens will be accumulated, but not as greedily. When trends are not so steep, frequent retracements offer good entries.

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Hey Tommor.

Positive week it is.
A look inside the numbers.

And this is why I do this. To see what the normal is, to begin with. Just look on the right. That’s looking at the market a week at a time (in the middle they’re broken down by the day). And so, what’s normal?

— The USD has all of their 7 Dollar pairs trending USD strong (20 over the 50 EMA). And if you want to see that progression, it’s there in the middle (days).

— On Monday you can see that 21 out of the 28 pairs trended in their normal state. 7 pairs ended the day in the opposite direction (non normal). This is in that top row.

— Summary - The week started out going head long strong normal. Great for the trend traders. Right Tommor?

— On Turn-around-Tuesday it went in the opposite direction. We can call it non normal. Or counter trending. Or just in the opposite direction of their trend.
But you can see that 11 pairs ended normal & the other 17 ended non normal.

— On Wednesday it goes by way of the same. 12 pairs ended in their trending direction and 18 ended opposite of their trend direction.

— Thursday, also, goes in the same way. This time is equally split. 14 pairs ending normal and 14 pairs not. So basically, these 3 days of the week went completely split down in the middle.

— Friday pretty much goes in the way Monday went. Most of the pairs went in the way of their trend. 18 trending. 10 counter trending.

  • USD — Maintains their strength this week. Top dog, with all of their 7 pairs trending USD strong.
  • CHF — Racks up 2 more pairs, from last weekend, strong. Now have 6 of their 7 pairs trending Swiss strong (again, 20 EMA over the 50 EMA).
  • CAD — No changing from last weekend. Have 5 of their 7 pairs CAD strong.
  • JPY — Got strong. It’s been in the works lately. This week on their respective Yen pairs changes from 1 to 4 pairs now JPY strong.
  • NZD — Been slipping big time. Last weekend they sat with 6 of their pairs trending strong down to 3 now only.
  • AUD — The same. Although weaker. Had 3 of their pairs strong but now only 2.
  • GBP — Lost a pair to 1 GBP pair now trending strong.
  • EUR — Weakest. They have no EUR pairs trending strong.

Just look at what the 3 safe haven currency’s have been doing. Getting stronger.
USD, CHF, JPY. Also the Comm currency’s have been getting weaker. All that speaks to a risk off sentiment.

My only point here is that what’s considered normal is always changing, to some extent. We’ve been moving more towards safe haven dominating over the risk on currency’s (Antipodeans).

And I agree with you Tommor, all this stuff that we talk about here is not really for a predictive tool. In fact, we’ve never even said so.

I know it’s a thing for new traders to want to know answers. Even without explanation. But that’s not what we’re doing here. Maybe one day they will come to understand the complexity of this market we are dealing with.

But I think it only makes sense, to start off with the knowledge of what the market is doing. In here, we’re simply looking at whether a currency pair ended a day in the direction of their respective trend (a.k.a. normal).

And our (I adopted yours) indicator is looking at the 20 EMA line and the 50 EMA line dynamic. This perspective is on the longer side of things. We’re more swing traders than anything.

All we’re doing is looking at this data.
It’s a starting point.
It’s knowledge.
It’s a dynamic.
It can be used as some kind of edge to build upon.
Especially those who trade according to trend.

For me personally, I look at this data just for the purpose of seeing what’s happening. I need to know what is. Amongst a lot of other perspectives. Like knowing what the aggregate is saying as opposed to any of the specific parts (pairs).

I don’t wrap this stuff around a strategy. Either for an entry, or exit.

But how in the world can someone trade in a market in which you don’t know what’s happening? Honestly.

This is foundational stuff. And you can’t get any simpler than knowing what’s normal and what’s not normal.

Now. If I wanted to, I have the opportunity, because of this data, to dive into the specific currency pairs to get some kind of indication of where this might be heading. After all, if you can get an idea of a direction something is heading, then you got a major part of the battle won. Cause I believe that’s the hardest part.

Now don’t get me wrong, there are many other factors to consider.

  • Where do you get in at?
  • When do you get in?
  • Where do you get out at?
  • When do you get out?
  • How much to put on? Too much or too little?
  • Rules that guide you in managing an open trade.
  • Protecting and managing the health of your account balance.

We’re not talking about that stuff. That’s what the school in B.P’s is all about.
All we’re trying to do is understand what the market is doing. In this perspective.

That is it.

The rest is up to you. Right?

My 2 cents.


That’s a great summary of where we are and what we’re trying to do Mike, good points raised here. I’d much rather spend time compiling this sort of data and reading this sort of summary than watching any amount of commentators on TV professing to know why this went up and this went down. Or even some learned business school summation of the maths involved in exponential averaging.

I’m very happy just to work out if I should be in the market or out, and if I’m in, what I should not be getting into right now, that will do for me.

Have a good weekend.


Hey Meza.
Sorry for this delay. But I did want to respond to your question.

I’m gonna divulge as much knowledge as I can for ya. Hopefully it’ll help in your understanding of it all.

— The most notable currencies are the AUD, NZD, CAD (a.k.a. Comms).

— The most notable currencies are the USD, CHF, JPY.

Risk-on & risk-off should be thought of as a seesaw. With one on one side with the other on the other side. It’s a dynamic. A perspective that the broad market tends to side with. One or the other.

Cause we all know that the reason why the participants are in it is to be making a profit. Making some money. Right? But in our market, with the currency’s, each of them have behind them a reason for why they are traded. It’s the fundamentals that drive them. Now I’m not talking about the technical side of things. Just the fundamental side. Cause that’s another topic of discussion.

But, you can get a sense of risk-on when you see the Comm currencies being bought up. Along with the safe haven currencies getting sold off. That means the money is more daring. It will take a chance with those horses. And there’s reasons for that, like the fact that they are the economies that have more growth to be had in comparison to where they’ve been. Basically, their up and coming nations. Cause where can you go when you’re already at the top?

And well, that’s the whole reason for the safe haven currencies. They’re at the top for a reason. It’s safer. Which is where the money will want to go when the fundamentals of the world turn ugly. It’s just playing it safe.

You can think of the stock markets in the same way. Think of it. In the equity markets, what are they doing, anyway? All their doing is putting their money there for growth only. It’s one way. Up. Not down. The stock markets want up only. That’s it. And that’s why when you have a risk-on sentiment the stock markets are moving higher. It’s common knowledge over there in that market. It’s the investors actually saying that I’ll invest in your company. And you better be getting more valued as time goes by. They want a return on their money. So therefore, the price of that company better move higher so they can get that higher return.

But when that market moves lower, who wants that? No one. Not the investors. Not the company’s. Not even the governments. No one. It’s a bad thing.

But…what’s most important to an investor?
Their capital.
Do you think they care more about what their invested in or what their account balance states?
They care more about where their money goes to.

So when they want more security they’ll move their money into the safer markets. Like the treasury markets.

But getting back to our market. It’s different. We’re not in a one way direction type dynamic, like the stock markets are. It’s much more complicated. The reasons why the investors (now we’re talking fundamentally here, only) buy a currency and sell a currency can take many different reasons. And one of those reasons can be divided into the risk-on, risk-off dynamic. That’s why you’ll hear many analysts frame it that way. Cause it is a truism.

But that doesn’t necessarily mean those are the only reasons why money goes there. You got to think about these other reasons why money moves in the way it does.

  • Technical analysis. All of the things pertaining to what the charts are saying. S/R levels. Overbought indicators. Volume. Any lines on the charts. Etc…

  • Interest rate differentials between 2 countries. How a broker needs to pay the difference at every EOD.

  • Political economic reasons. Think of Brexit. The USA and whoever is elected (think of the battle between Trump and Hillary back when he got elected Nov. '15.). Talk about the market flying.

Look. I can go on and on. In fact, some time ago I did some thorough research on all of the reasons why currency’s move. I should dig it out, from one of my notebooks that I done very much journaling on. I remember it very well. It is very informative, no doubt. But guess what? You want to know what I concluded?

It doesn’t matter what the reasons are, were, will be.
It doesn’t.
What matters more, is what’s trending. And even then, that’s a difficult thing to get a handle on. As what we find on this thread.

We simply want to go with the flow.

But I see you’re wanting to define some natural rhythms of the market.

You are definitely thinking Meza. Good job. You are on the hunt, and are thinking like a trader. Awesome.

But, you got to be a little more specific on what riding the wave means, to you. You got a beginning, the middle, and the end of a trend. You know how hard it is to know when a trend starts. Very. They say it’s practically impossible to pick tops and bottoms. That’s simply saying it’s hard to know when it begins and when it ends.

So they say it’s best to jump in on when it’s in the middle of trending. Right? That’s your best chance to be right on something.

So riding a trend needs to be explained pretty specifically. From my own experience, I’ll tell ya, that it doesn’t pay to try to be in it from the beginning to the end. The whipsaws are so detrimental, that in the long run the best you can do is only break even. It’s best to get real good at a specific part of the trend. Let’s see…you can break it down into the beginning, the middle, or the end. The beginning would be the bottom. Impossible to see until afterwards. The end would be the tops. Same thing. Impossible until it’s over. So all you got is the middle part, which is where you’ll have those boosts. Then retracements. Then boosts higher. It has to be that. Higher highs (for uptrends) and lower lows (for downtrends). The ranging criteria is hard to get right, I think. Therefore I don’t count that variable. It only makes things so much complicated.

Plus I’m not wrong in making everything either in an uptrend or downtrend. If something actually ranges, then I call that a retracement from the direction it’s going in, that’s all. Cause it’ll eventually either go back to the established trend direction (higher swing highs) or it’ll change that trend and go the other way (lower swing lows).

So, all I’m saying is that it’s better to get good, and practice, one specific dynamic of a trend. The problem is that there’s so much we don’t know until after the fact (hindsight). Always remember that, Meza. Don’t be deceived by where you think the market should be going. Know what the market is doing, first. Know for sure. Then act accordingly.

What do we know for sure?
Every trend has a beginning, a middle, and an end. We just don’t know for how long, on each of those aspects. Think of it. For a beginning, we don’t know until afterwards. Cause we can have a very long down trend. It can then range for a long time. Then we can think it’ll change into an uptrend. But it could very well be a fake out and just continue on it’s down trend. That’s why I say you don’t know until afterwards. Much afterwards. Like after it starts making higher highs. That takes time.

And the same things goes for the end of the trend. Think of a long uptrend. It doesn’t make higher highs anymore. It retraces. Or ranges for a time. Will look like a flag. But we are not going to know whether it will continue on that uptrend or not unless it starts making lower swing lows. That takes some time. So therefore, I’m saying, that we don’t know until after the fact on the starts and ends of a trend.

It’s almost impossible.

That’s why they say when it has started, technically speaking, your direction should be established. It’s all in the middle part of the trend. And even then, you got to be specific on how to trade that. Just after the retracements only? Or when it makes higher highs? Or only on the break and retests. Know what I mean?

Basically, you want to get good, very good, at one particular part of a trend. What else is there? Well, I told you, I tried the whole entire trend. Look. You can try it. Try surfing that surfboard higher and lower and hopefully in the end come out in profit. I found wayyyyy to much slippage. To much lost profits. It doesn’t pay. Trust me.

Sorry. Maybe I got off subject. But those are some things to think about when it comes to the specifics of trading something. Like a pair. On a chart.

But, you want help on exactly what to trade. Cause if you can determine correctly how the market is moving then your chances of picking a good pair helps matters, right?

Well, if you don’t mind, I’ll tell you how I go about this.
Talking about which pair to trade.

  • I look at the currency aggregate.
  • I determine their aggregate trend (will either be long or short).
  • Pick a long trending currency.
  • Pick a short trending currency.
  • Then it’s just a matter of time about WHEN to get into this trade, and WHEN to get out of this trade.

You can just use the cheat sheet from Dennis’ thread —

But as I keep looking at what you’re asking, your wanting to know about other identifiable distinct phases.

Well, as mentioned. And which I think is the best, most consensus driven one is the risk-on vs. risk-off sentiment. In fact, you previously said that the AUD/USD pair was the bell weather pair for that. That’s very correct. But the AUD/JPY is that also.


– Strongest against the weakest.

– The USD against anyone else. Cause that’s the most traded currency in the world today, volume wise. It is the worlds reserve currency.

– Correlations. That is how two particular currencies are related to one another. Examples are : EUR & CHF. USD & JPY. AUD & NZD. CAD & Oil. They are all known for riding similarly. This is not so easy. Correlations can be broken for such a long time. Be well prepared if you want to go this route.

– Majors against the Comms. Back in '16 I developed this system. I grouped the entire 8 currencies into those 2 groups. 5 against 3. 15 pairs. But it worked much better then because the CAD just does not always act as a commodity currency these days. It used to though.

– Interest rate differentials. Or whoever is poised to raise interest rates next. Cause that’ll affect what goes on in the bond markets. Remember, money wants to grow.

– Individual currency trends. That’s what I do. Look at the aggregate and boil it down to a pair. In fact, that’s exactly what the strongest to weakest is all about also.

I don’t know any other broad market tendencies. Money just wants to be accumulated, that’s all. And it’ll be done by moving in some kind of trend.

You got to look at the individual characteristics of a currency, and market sentiment. Most of the time that sentiment will fall under risk-off (safe) or risk-on (daring).
And even Bitcoin has proven to be a risk-on asset. All the money there is nothing but investors extra, play around type money. That should tell you something about how the world is today. There’s so much money around it’s not even funny.

Well, I’m sorry about all this. I know it’s a lot of nonsense.
Take what you can from any of this.
Throw the rest out.



The market is always changing and evolving both in the short term and the longer term.

In more recent times that change has accelerated - likely the effect of automated trading.

One example that I can think of is on this board - a thread started in 07 called the 3 ducks - a ‘system’ of TA that was created back in the late 90’s - long story but a member here authored that thread and the system was good - it worked and it worked well … until it no longer works.

As traders we likewise have to be willing to change and change is never easy :slight_smile:

Thanks Mike for your insightful posts.


hi im peter

Hi Deidre,

Still going with VW I see.

We spell it Deirdre over here - though your spelling remains true to the Irish - slender vowels i and e always between constants.

Sadly you are not Peter because the Irish is Peadar - broad vowels a,o and u likewise always between constants .

Cead mile failte ::slight_smile: