That’s right. I also earned 250 pips this week. The USD is likely to strengthen next week.
Normality yesterday was negative at 43%, as was Tuesday at 36%. I have cut some less rewarding trend-following positions this morning plus a couple of new entry orders.
2 Likes
Normality yesterday was just 21%, only a handful of charts closed in the direction of their D1 trends. Dangerous times. I closed all remaining positions about mid-way through the session and cancelled the few pending orders. Today I will run a few entry orders in case trends resume but no pyramid orders yet.
4 Likes
The week ended with a normal Friday, at 64%, balancing up the previous negative days.
Overall, the week was only slightly negative at 46%. This has justified the cautious approach through the week, cutting losers early and limiting new orders and pyramid orders.
I have had some of my limited entry orders triggered the last 2 days but I am not pyramiding them yet. I will add a small number of similar small entry orders ready for Sunday night, but still no pyramid orders.
1 Like
Monday was a nice positive day for trends - that’s two in a row - so I have pyramided my EUR/USD long and have another pyramid order standing ready higher above. I also have a pyramid order on the Dow long but not close to being triggered yet.
2 Likes
Whatever be the result of your trade, one thing I’d like to appreciate you for is your conviction to stick up to the trade despite knowing it’s not gonna reap you much money. At least initially.
Forex trading is not something to be complicated. Proper knowledge and trading education help a trader to make money. This requires discipline and plan.
Excellent normality score yesterday of 71%, confirming the strength of the current long-term trends and of risk-on speculation.
Setting some new entry signals and definitely looking to pyramid the better positions when b/e reached.
3 Likes
Hi Tommor
I’ve been paper trading my new strategy based on Dennis’s SW analysis.
I have also added your market normality (MN) score as an indicator of a broader market sentiment.
I have two questions:
- I trade daily charts with a trend following system. I have been using MN on a daily basis but I think it may be more reliable as a weekly indicator. What do you think?
- When you are looking to pyramid, is it purely based on your MN score or do you also look at other factors?
-
I tend to agree. The weekly MN for me is the key score but I often take clues from the ongoing daily scores within the week.
-
I’m only looking to pyramid when MN is definitely positive. But within that parameter, I am pyramiding the stronger trends more aggressively. So very strong trends are pyramided when profit equals r, then 2r, then 3r etc. Super-trends are good for pyramiding when profit equals 0.5r, then 1.0r, then 1.5r etc. In each case, I pull the SL of all the earlier positions to the SL of the last pyramid trade opened.
2 Likes
Thanks, Tommor
I look at the relative strength and weakness in a pair to determine whether the trend is getting stronger. Bollinger bands are also a good indicator to see if the bands are expanding or contracting.
And also where the price action is relative to the bands.
What do you use to determine strong and super trends?
I currently look at 7 criteria starting with the slope of the 50EMA, then also stuff like the 20/50/100EMA sequence, the last week’s close compared to the previous, how many weekly bars are currently overlapping, whether the weekly bar is cut by the 50EMA etc. It varies slightly rom time to time. If all the criteria line up, that’s a super-trend: if 1 of the 7 is neutral or unclear, that’s still a strong trend, and the trend ranking falls away rapidly after that.
2 Likes
This week ended with a slight positive normality - 54%. Not spectacular but shows some potential for further with-trend movements next week.
Putting in some more cautious entry orders over the weekend and aiming to pyramid cautiously if they trigger.
2 Likes
Forex normality this week has been - weak. Just a 31% score. Its a good time for limited position sizes, cautious pyramiding (if any) and capping your total exposure.
2 Likes
The normality score this week across the 28 major pairs was exactly 50%. Which is just about OK but suggests its still not time for deep positions and multiple pyramids and letting some correlated positions overlap others etc. etc.
Its the weekend - check your stop-losses.
2 Likes
Normality this week has just managed to scrape to barely positive, 51%. Still a time for caution - limited position sizes, lining up good price levels for entry points, pyramiding hardly worthwhile, etc.
2 Likes
And that’s how the week ended - 51% normality, barely positive.
But I’m taking some optimism from this, hoping that as I see it the market wants to be trend-positive but is cautious and timid and just has to wait for the right conditions. Event three negative days this week couldn’t overwhelm the positivity in the other two. Fingers crossed…
2 Likes
The market doesn’t stop. If it does, there won’t be any trading and no profits.
Forex market normality for the week was just 45%, almost as bad as it gets.
Right now I don’t have any forex trades open and will probably just put in one entry order for Monday, on the strongest pair - no pyramiding, SL and TP set, 0.5% capital risk.
I will be a bit more bullish on the Dow, as it is running at 55-60% normality, which is fairly typical for the Dow’s uptrends looked at over 3mth periods.
2 Likes
So far this week trend normality has been only 49%. Part of the reason for the low score was yesterday’s sudden strengthening of the USD, which led to counter-trend USD pair moves across the board, which of course impacts everything else to a degree. Of course a stronger USD cancels my plans to get long on the DJIA but hey ho.
Still a good time for cautious entries, limited position sizes, stop-losses, and possibly TP’s.
3 Likes