AUDUSD 1H - Looks like we’re seeing signs that this counter-trend could be coming to and end:
Hedging (inspired by @Trendswithbenefits):
I opened a short position on EURGBP, but price went up. I was confident that it was going to come back, so I replaced my SL with a buy order to hedge that short position.
As expected, price blew past what would have been my SL, picked up my order, spiked, then came back down. Then I set a SL at BE on the hedge position:
And alas, now we are in profit and resume with the original trade:
This is what AUDUSD would look like on a yearly chart:
So glad I have nothing better to do with my time.
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Price took a dive in the opposite direction, creating a lower low. Did my demand zone switch to supply?
There is still good reason to expect a reversal in trend based on the daily chart:
Friday’s candle was bullish, but I want to see some more confirmation before going long.
This analysis was done June 2020. Keeping in mind this was 6-7 months into the pandemic:
Here’s what it looks like today. I had SR2 as the worst case scenario, I never imagined price would hit that. Yet, that’s pretty well where it ended up:
Gold 1D - Has formed a double bottom. Still looking to break through that SR area at 1760:
USDCAD 4H - Both currencies are strong right now. Fake breakout last week but price is still respecting that trend line. I’ve got my eyes on the demand zone :
AUDNZD 2H - I had an order placed just below that demand zone on Friday and forgot to cancel it. The market gods saw it, price shot down like lightning and grabbed it. Rookie mistake on my part. We’ll see what happens Monday as it will likely get stopped out.
Oil - I’m long here, target is the supply zone:
Price is still struggling at 1760. Once we get past that area my next target would be the top of that channel, at the 1840 supply zone.
EURUSD 4H - Price broke through my trend-line creating a demand area which effectively sent it back up to complete the S/D cycle:
Where it goes now is anyone’s guess, but I’ll go out on a limb…
Looking at the monthly chart, price bounced off a major resistance area and will probably retest it, so long term I’m bearish on this pair:
3 sure things I’ve learned over the last few years that will lead to failure in trading:
- Emotions running the show
- Lack of strategy or not sticking to a strategy.
- Failure to exercise discipline.
All of these mistakes come down to psychology.
Definitely something to think about as we enter a new trading week.
Happy trading!
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Gold 1D:
We finally made it through the 1760 area. Will we see 1840 this month?
These 2 have cooled off, we’re getting a little closer each week. There is a support zone I’ve marked out that needs to be broken, which might present a problem:
CHFJPY Monthly - I’m watching this pair for a long term drop. Price is a the top of this resistance level on the monthly chart and hasn’t closed above this level since Dec. 2015.
Zoom in to the 4H chart, my first target will be that demand zone (open position not shown):
Keep in mind, there’s always a good chance price will continue up, so I have my SL set above the high here.
USDCAD 4H:
Broke all sorts of zones last week, which ultimately stopped me out, then proceeded back toward my target. I’m staying out of this pair for now as price is too close to my demand zone, so will wait to see where it decides to go.
Oil 2H:
I was right on with this one. Went back in after confirmation of bounce off that demand area in between my 2 zones:
Not too much happening with Gold, but it’s steadily climbing to that 1840 mark:
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Gotta love a sense of humour…I lost my confidence so I didn’t get back in this pair. This is a savage business…
“The Market” and “Mother Nature”.
There are so many factors that drive stock and currency (market) prices. Too many to comprehend. I like to look at “The Market” in a much broader sense, like “Mother Nature”.
Mother Nature, through many extreme factors creates its own balance.
The Market, through many extreme factors also creates it’s own balance.
I’m not going to start listing examples because the list could go on forever, but IMO these are both self driving entities beyond anyone’s control.
Let’s look at FX. I look at price as something that moves from point A to point B to point C, etc., typically moving up and down in a zig-zag pattern. Every zig-zag pattern on the monthly chart is made up of a zig-zag pattern on the weekly chart. This pattern continues right down to the 1 second chart.
The how or why is irrelevant to me. The important part is trying to find point A, B, C…
Let’s take a closer look at these patterns using AUDUSD as an example:
The blue SR lines on the monthly chart represent Point A, B, C…This is MY analysis and these lines are subjective and should be viewed as “zones”, but I only put them in the most visually obvious places to avoid over-crowding. I use these lines to predict where I think price is headed long term.
Since price moves in zig-zag patterns, it creates channels, which become more apparent on the weekly chart view:
Each SR line that outlines each channel is a clone of the other, the only thing I altered was the length of some of them. Creating these channels is impossible to do before they form, so you need to wait for partial formation using 2 or 3 swing lows/highs and go from there.
You can see how the current uptrend has formed; Price surges up then goes into a consolidation period before surging up again.
This chart is suggesting that this consolidation period is coming to an end and price is getting ready to surge again. The question is, will it surge up or down? Has it come close enough to hitting “Point B” (blue line) to bounce back down, or not?
That is for each of us to determine. Here’s a closer look at this channel on the daily chart:
Looking forward to another trading week. Keep your risk low and keep trading fun.
Matty