Maximum profit/lose is 100/27

Trading Systems
362

Ok so according to the rules, I entered long on GBPUSD at 1.6243.

Supertrend is green, green ema crossover arrow happened earlier a few bars back, and CCI finally turned green. Price is at the bottom of the chart …well middle actually after a triple bottom…and has broken up thru the pivot point.

I probably should have waited for price to retrace a bit further down the previous candle to enter but didn’t.

Set stop for -27 and t/p for R1…let’s see what happens…

UPDATE

Was up more than 30 pips so set stop to breakeven :)…

363

How do you mark/see top and bottom? Is that part of in indicator or do you just draw lines above and below x number of candles?

364

I’m at work now and don’t have my MT4 charts here, but I do have this online chart to try to show you. This is a 15M chart cause it doesn’t give 30M so pardon the inexactness…lol (if you look on 1H charts, the bottoms are a little closer together)

I’ve circled what I perceive as triple bottoms…price tried 3 times to break 1.6112 and failed …strong support. If it helps visually to draw a line, then use it. :slight_smile:

gbpusdtb.jpg700×538 57.4 KB

365

So, you just look for a tripple bottom on 30M?

Is that how joe is doing it too? Or is that how you personally do it?

366

Not just triple bottoms/tops, they are rarer, but double bottoms/tops, and head & shoulders too …[Chart Patterns - Forex Trading Information & Articles | Forexpedia](http://www.babypips.com/forexpedia/Category:Chart_Patterns chart patterns.)

Yes in Joe’s post (bolded) he wrote:

He keeps emphasizing to look for longs when price is near the bottom of the chart and moving up (and vice versa for shorts)… chart patterns give a clue that trend may reverse from below to above (or above to below) …and then the indicators give you a confirmation and a place to enter.

:slight_smile:

367

Ok…R1 was reached! So thats +50 pips in just over an hour :slight_smile: As my confidence & consistency grows with this method, I’ll set my profit targets a little higher, but for now will just watch to see if it will actually get to 100 pips.

368

Thanks sweet pip, I appreciate it.

369

Hi Joe,
Just wondering if you started a thread about this on any other forum?
Thanks :slight_smile:

370

I’m joining this strategy now too, it seems fascinatingly strong. I’ll post any questions or results here as soon as I start :slight_smile:

One thing I would like to ask is -when- to identify a head and shoulders pattern.

Are we looking for one that has already shown the resistance and looks as if it will complete soon, or are we looking for a fully formed pattern, and then to use it’s break-through from the resistance line?

371

Welcome to the thread.
I would say we are looking for ones that have shown resistance (or support), and then look to the indicators for confirmation and the entry point. I’m thinking if we wait for a fully formed pattern then we are too late for the bounce which is the beginning of the new trend and generally the stronger move. Hopefully Joe can comment further.
:slight_smile:

372

Hi Sweet,
thank you very much for sharing all your very long and bright experience, here.

I have some problems in following your yesterday trade, though. GBPUSD, on Sep 1st, at least on my FXDD data stream, made High: 1,6374, Low: 1,6112, Close: 1,6157.

Therefore, based on the classical formula, PP should be 1,6214 and R1 1,6316.

Always on my FXDD datastream, GBPUSD, yesterday, never reached 1,6316, being the daily high 1,6298.

Always on my charts, the trade you illustrated would be still in place, probably, but it is ranging towards nowhere since yesterday evening, and while I write (07:45 GMT+2) is going down towards the stop-loss, that you trailed at BE.

Why are we NOT on the same line, here?

Oh, and, BTW: what about your harmonic trading? Coming here just for interest or because the harmonic is not working so well? It’s really just to know whether it is worth studying the harmonic a bit more!

Thanks again.

Bye

F

373

We seem to have the same high & low prices, but different close prices…I have 1.6124 …which gives me 1.6294 for R1.

Your close price is what my chart shows as the 22:30 candle…EDT? I think…so with that difference one of us is off…lol.

Yes I still watch for the harmonic patterns and trade them when they come up, but I don’t have all day to find them so I have a recognition (zup) indicator to find them for me.

However since they tend occur at awkward times for when I can trade them, I’m supplementing my strategy toolbox with a couple of good methods to fill the gaps…some days trade the harmonics patterns, other days trade basic chart patterns…I like patterns… :smiley:

374

Uhhh, thought about again…

… let me guess, Sweet: you’re using another broker that is not set to the time zone of FXDD. Then, once again, [B]welcome to the forex![/B] (to me LOL :D)

Your broker gave you different values for the H/L/C of Sep 1st (simply because Sep 1st, according to his timezone, ended [I]before[/I] or [I]after[/I] than for FXDD, and at [I]that[/I] timepoint GBPUSD reahced other extremes), and so [B]your pivot points are different from mine[/B]. LOL!

And this is the problem, in my view, of any trading system based on such mechanical rules in the forex. There is no “general system”, but just a “broker-compliant” system. What I see on my screen, with my broker-timezone, can well work for me but not for you (if you have another broker-timezone). Indicators give signals sooner or later, target points (if based on a calculation made on past data) can be different, even candlestick patterns can be different. Just try, open another demo account on a broker located on the other side of the globe, and you’ll see that sometimes, even the color of the “corresponding” bars changes.

That’s no problem, of course, for timeframes equal or shorter than H1. But, in this case, there are the pivot points: and they are calculated on the dailies… yes: WHICH ONES? Those opening/closing at 0:00 GMT or those opening/closing at 0:00 GMT+12?

So: in your trade example, Sweet, the setup was perfect. But you cashed 50 pips. I would have been stopped at break even, probably.

I think this fact makes many of our threads quite fuzzy, because some people say “the system works perfectly”. Some others say: “it sucks”. And nobody have any idea of what’s going on…

Which is the solution? I don’t know! Perhaps, in this case, using another method for setting profit targets, based on some criterion not dependent on too many past data… [B]OR[/B] go and trade other “regulated” markets, where the O/H/L/C data are [B]fixed[/B] by market open hours, all over around the globe. It would be interesting checking whether Joe’s system, as simple as it is, can work also there.

The fact is that, skipping all timezone considerations, your trade, Sweet, with this wonderful, and I think “handbook” setup, as you clearly and perfectly explained, would have generated a maximum of 55 (1,6298 - 1,6243) pips, and not 100. This means that the “fix stop loss”, in the case this strategy would be adopted, cannot be placed as far as initially thought (the 100/27 formula), otherwise you would have got no profits at all, e.g. in this case. And, I fear, in many others…

Bye

Fabio

375

Yes that’s probably quite likely…I know I’ve seen others’ charts outlining a harmonic pattern that mine chart showed as iffy…like a very shallow C point on my that was much more pronounced on theirs. Even my FXCM and IBFX charts can have some differing candle formations, so one might show for example a morning star, and the other something rather ordinary…lol.

What does your pivot and R1 show today for GU? My pivot shows as 1.6229 and R1 as 1.6347. I checked with DailyFX.com and their’s is quite close with 1.6228 for pivot and 1.6341 as R1.

376

Dear Sweet (and all the others, of course), look at how things can get confusing!

     Sweet pivot     My pivot     diff
R3                     1,6496
R2                     1,6412
R1   1,6347            1,6349     +2 pips
PP   1,6229            1,6265     +36 pips
S1                     1,6202
S2                     1,6118
S3                     1,6055

Now, I think that some inputs from you, Joe, could be very useful:

  • Which broker, with which close/open time (in GMT) are you trading with?

  • When, during the day, are you trading (in GMT)?

At FXDD now (10:20 my time GMT+1 with DST+1, i.e. official GMT +1) is 11:20, so officially GMT +3.

Bye

Fabio

377

Hello miss sweet, on your last trade you mentioned that you entered your trade after you received all your colors but had got the ema cross signal a while back. I was under the impression that the ema signal had to come around the same time as the other indicators or it would not be a valid signal I see why Im missing pips.

378

Testing out another trade…short on EURUSD at 1.4264.

Red ema cross over arrow 4 bars earlier, Supertrend Red, CCI finally turned Red, RSI below 50. This time I waited until price reached about the midpoint of the prior bar. Price also broke down thru the pivot support although failed to close past it…don’t know if that’s good or bad…lol

Price also has come down from the upper part of the screen…an almost R2 high. It has travelled quite far already when hitting the pivot point so I do expect it to bounce a bit…hopefully not as high as the stop…lol

Stop set at -27, target is S1 @ 1.4209 so that’s 55 pips…let’s see what happens :cool:

eurusd090903.jpg700×613 84.4 KB

UPDATE
About 4 hours later, was up +29 pips so moved stop to breakeven…this looks like it’ll take a little longer than yesterday…lol

379

Well, got stopped out at breakeven by just a pip or two…arrgh. Price has just been sidewinding all afternoon (well afternoon for me…lol). Will keep checking if there’s a re-entry possibility, just need a red ema crossover arrow…hmmm…

380

Hallo Sweet,
so another not so performing trade. The only comment is that, perhaps, I would have expected the close of the bar where you entered, and, as we can now see, this would have been a perfect fractal, or swing point, as you prefer to call it, and therefore I would have not entered the following bar (if, as usual, I would have placed a conditional order “some pips below” it).
In analyzing this trade, (see attached chart) I anyway noticed another strange thing. If you observe carefully the kino CCI, you notice that there are some differences. Not enormous, fortunately, but some signals are different! Might it also be due to the difference in timezones of our brokers?

As far as my daily job will allow it, I’m also tracking (and posting) some signals, today. I hope that, with 80% accuracy as Joe stated it, it will be possible, here in the community, finding also some well working trade…

Finally: Sweet, have you ever heard about “pimpology”? It’s also based on CCI…

BTW: ME: so many post and still so dumb! :o

How can you post so nice pictures within the post? I can just attach them. Do you upload them on some web site? If I try to “insert picture” here, I just get a popup asking for an URL

Bye

Fabio

babypips.jpg700×318 39.6 KB

381

Ooops…lol…I forgot I have another indicator on there, that I was trying to make something of, and also looks like the ema crossover…it’s signals when there’s an ADX crossover that happens after a fractal which also displays red & green arrows. Before I got the ema crossover from Joe’s profile page, it seemed that mine was very close to his, so I kept it on to compare them. Sorry bout the confusion :o

I didn’t really care for the setup to begin with…the signal came when price was in the middle of the screen after an already big drop…I feel it would have been better if it came nearer the top. Also at the time, there wasn’t any news releases scheduled for another 15 hours to really move price. However, as Joe said, to get the experience and figure out what works best, ya gotta try. Where did Joe go?..lol…thought he was going to help us analyze the trade setups we find. However, I’m quite ok with a breakeven on a second trade …better than a loss anyday.

I’ve heard of pimpology, but haven’t checked it out…maybe will do this weekend if time permits.

As far as CCI based systems go, I’ve tried Woodie’s system…but then I read some not so flattering heresay about him and whether he really trades it or just talks a good talk and gets his money on the conference circuits, and some scandalous interaction with someone who committed suicide after losing big time with his method.

You can easily embed your chart within your post by using the tags around the url of the pic. After I upload my pic to babypips, I click on my thumbnail to open it to the full screen version, and then copy the url from the browser address bar. Then I go back to my post and type in the above tags, pasting the url between them…here’s your pic…

babypips.jpg700×318 39.6 KB


When I save my pic from MT4, I use 800 x 700 pxls, and save it as a GIF.

Be a little kinder to yourself!..lol…and don’t give me so much credit. The post count doesn’t mean anything except to count how many posts one has made. I’ve got a fulltime day job too and they say it takes about 5 years to really know one’s “job”, and so far I’m almost 2 years into this so I’ve got a ways to go yet too. :o

:slight_smile: