Most predictable assests to trade?

I’m new to forex and would like to know which assets are the most stable/predictable to trade? By stable I mean there is as little as possible world events, economic reports etc. that influence the price of the asset. I’d like something with as few as possible hidden variables.

No reply? That’s odd. I thought that is the noob section :slight_smile:

I think you got no reply because its such a stupid question. You also need more patience waiting for answers, not everyone here lives in the same time zones.
Imho your time would be better spent at the free school on here, learning the basics

There is no such asset. They are all deeply, deeply interconnected. What affects the majors affects everything else.

Hi Orson ;),
I agree with mlawson71 about the correlation between everything. However, if we are to point out an asset that is more stable it would be the futures indices. I know big price movements are not so common there but also know that trading futures is not that easy (they have wider spread and you need a lot of patience and skills to make profits there). Even being stable that doesn’t make them easy to predict, so it is a jump into the deep for me (never tried futures so far).
As for the forex I am afraid there isn’t such pair :frowning:

yeah, its not like we can simply pinpoint one like this is good and this is not, it has many angles and windows to consider. and when i say many i mean like A LOT!! so there you have it, well i would say some would actually think this question is silly. but i hope you find your satisfying answer

Hi Orson, welcome to the forum … I admit my instinctive reaction to reading your question was to wonder whether you wanted to know about these to trade them or to make sure to avoid trading them. Ok, I’m being a tiny bit facetious, wording it that way :8: , but if you’ll excuse my answering a question with a question, if you found something with no volatility, that would mean no price-changes, wouldn’t it, so how would you ever be able to trade it profitably? :33:

Trading is all about learning how to manage risk, not how to avoid it altogether. :wink:

What do you mean under stable? An asset with low volatility? Investors hate volatility so you can consider popular investment assets as most stable. In currency markets there are few low volatility pairs as speculation is primary purpose of this market what will imminently cause swings.
Regarding predictability you can consider exotic pairs more predictable than majors because less traders participate into their trading (less factors affect the movement). Exotic pairs also prone to rigging and the costs of trading are higher there.

Low volatility means few trading opportunities, why would investors want fewer opportunities?

In currency markets … speculation is primary purpose of this market

No, speculation is not the primary purpose of this market

you can consider exotic pairs more predictable than majors because less traders participate into their trading (less factors affect the movement).

Have you ever looked at a volatility chart?

So many posts, so little use

This comment has thrown me - what is the primary purpose of the market then, if not speculation from both retail, and commercial in the context of hedging against import and export currency fluctuations?

Hi Jezzode.
The “raison d’etre” for the market is surely to provide a means to enable foreign trade and business to be conducted, and speculation in how this affects relative currency values would be a secondary reason

This is spot on, however, and I’m trying my hardest to find where I read some updated statistics by market participation by both Central Banks, Commercial Companies and Investment Management Firms. It ‘did’ illustrate a nice break down by volume of transactions of speculation against all other OTC exchange traded products.

I’ll still have a search around

I think you’re not really in disagreement with each other, anyway … trade facilitation was the original reason for “foreign exchange”, of course, so that’s clearly a “[I]raison d’être[/I]”, but it’s also true that these days something like 85-90% of volumes transacted in the interbank market are for the purposes of speculation (that’s according to Wikipedia and Investopedia, anyway), so if you choose to assess something’s “primary function” according to what it’s actually primarily used for, that’s also true. :wink:

It seems very recent that with the, until then, continued growth of the EU and with it the spread of the Euro, we could be heading for a future of few national currencies.
I wonder what that future would have held for forex, with only a small number of global super currencies?
I guess we may never know now, as nationalism seems to be rearing its head once more

I’ve always thought, and perhaps hoped, that the Euro [as a currency] will at some point seize to continue. I would not be surprised at all if in the near future other EU players start to drop out of the Euro currency whilst remaining in the EEA of course.

In my view, the Euro is a tainted and restricting currency which has never (and still remains to) meet the advantages of which it was originally implemented for.

Jezz, that’s the UK view, which is fair from a UK viewpoint.

I buy from Italy and Germany and sell to Ireland, whilst paying my taxes and overheads in GBP, can you imagine the difficulties that I would face without the Euro?

Today I had a retail customer in Ireland who pointed out that my price was slightly higher than he could find in Italy, delivered to his address, so I had to compete - that’s the power of a single currency.

You might be ok with those countries, anyway: Germany and Ireland would surely be the last to leave the single currency, and Italy’s economy is usually too wrecked and unstable for them to contemplate such a move (maybe)?

It’s a few other countries that would love to get rid of it, if opinion polls are to be believed (always debatable, itself, these days).

If Le Pen did happen to win in France (which, personally, I doubt), that would be a whole new ball-game, though?

And how did you face this situation a few years ago when the pound was stronger - not to mention the US Dollar? It’s swings and roundabouts.

I hope I have interpreted this thread correctly…

IMO the most predictable asset to trade in Forex is Gold. Either against the USD or the EUR. Gold is not as volatile as the crosses and as a I have previously posted generally less ranging, trends longer and usually doesn’t spike as often as the crosses. (Don’t believe me… compare the charts)

For centuries, man has had a love affair with this precious metal… Gold is a comfort stock… it’s where Ma & Pa will usually park their investments, if world economies are settled, Gold should trend down, conflict, instability in world economies and Gold will usually trend up. Now that world banks nearly have control of the money flow… they’ll be coming after this precious metal next…

You know… follow the “Gold Bricked Road” all the way to the “Green Back City” and pay no attention to the man behind the curtain sort of thing…

A perfect example of the difficulties with currency forex trading is shown in the posts above… a great many situations can affect the price (x2).

My “Play-School” strategies are based on as little noise as “tradingly” possible in your chosen instrument.

As was your reply. There is no stupid questions in newbie island. This is a great and friendly forum and people come here to learn and the more people that come here the more traffic this sites gets which keeps it here for you to give such stupid answers. Correct me if I am wrong but they didnt ask if there question was stupid they asked what was the most predictable asset to trade. If you dont have an answer for him then why waste the bandwith? Or your time in even typing something like that.