i like your question, but it all depends on the time you came and saw the formation of the points to draw your trendline. i believe if it forms and you see it happen, you draw your trend line and enter the trade accordingly.
so based on the chart, both trend lines are valid, the only problem which i find with this system is no filter in entering a trade apart from the one demark pointed out which might get you let into a trade, but at the same time save you some valuable money.
I just connect the Mouteki points ASAP they appear from right to left, and see what happens. In backtesting, there are profitable trades to be had more often than not, even in small trends spanning a few days.
Today, I took a snapshot of all available currency pairs on MT4.
Here’s AUD/CAD. A nice looking uptrend, looks like a good breakout, not finished yet.
Only trouble with this breakout is the long bearish candle. I personally wouldn’t have entered. A shame when those long candles appear.
I’ll post more later, there are about twenty, and most of them look profitable. I’d like to hear comments so far. Money management is the only problem I have so far. Needs to be refined.
Another breakout, but the first candle to open below the trendline was too far down. Had I gone short at that candle, though, I still would have made lots of pips.
Another strong break, and the first candle to open below the line was close enough to it to have entered that trade.
A couple more.
Yet another winner.
By the way, all these breakouts happened today while I was away, so I didn’t get a chance to enter any of them. Just posting them to show the power of trendlines and to share and receive people’s thoughts.
CAD/CHF
Again, the first candle to open below the line was too far down. I would have skipped entering this trade, but the breakout is obvious.
Will post the rest in the next day or two.
keep the charts rolling in very helpful
Okay, Forexdarling.
Wasn’t sure if there was any interest.
Here’s CAD/JPY H4 from last Tuesday also. Fairly straightforward. If you’d gone short at the first candle below the trendline, another win.
Here’s CHF/JPY. Unfortunately, the first candle to open, opened too far down so I would have skipped this. (Still would have won though, depending on MM rules).
Here’s a down trend line with a break up. Another comfortable win from last Tuesday. To recap, I’m just connecting the candle wicks that have a PAIR of candles on either side whose wicks are lower than the chosen candle’s wick.
EUR/CAD H4
Yet another breakout, but the first candle did go against the trade by almost 80 pips. So probably a loser depending on your risk/reward rules.
Here’s EUR/CHF on the 4 hour time frame, again from last Tuesday. The first candle to open below our trendline opened too far down so I would have stayed out of this trade:
EUR/GBP
Could have taken 100 pips or more here:
Will post the rest later.
In the meantime, I’m backtesting on all the currency pairs over the last 3 months. I’ve tested 3 so far. One gave a 75% win and the other two each gave 65%.
I’ve changed the rules though. Instead of using Price Projection, I’m just taking 50 pip profit and using a 50 pip stop loss on all trades. I don’t like using the Price Projection because a high PP trade that loses, could wipe out a bunch of small winning trades. You could take many small steps forward, then a huge step backwards that would leave you back to square one.
thanks for the time to post and backtest this really simple but effective system.
the price projection has really being helpful to know where to take profit though it is left for the individual trader to either take the full projection or cut it in some point so i believe it is subjective, but atleast it shows where it might go to.
i prefer to take atleast 70% of the price projection which i might in some cases use trailing stop after reaching the 70% mark.
will like you to post more charts to this great system for others to really learn and use.
The first candle to open above our trendline reversed more than 100 pips. So, again, your MM rules would dictate a winner or loser.
GBP/CHF
A false breakout?
(Please correct me if I’m wrong)
Still went over 80 pips in our favour, though, before resuming and then the ‘breakout proper’. This brings up an interesting point which I’m looking into, that when false breakouts occur, we can redraw the trendline using a new TD point, and IGNORE the previous TD point.
To clarify, in the below chart, there are 3 TD points now, but only the first and last, (ignore the center one), support the trend. So if I see multiple TD points I am experimenting with only connecting ones that support an obvious trend. (Still using a demo account and back/forward testing).
A nice clean break…I notice how the lower candle wicks almost touch the line right up to the breakout, as if ‘confirming’ the trendline…
NZD/JPY
Again, depending on your MM rules, a possible winner.
Not sure if I would have traded this one as the 2nd TD point, (or first from the right), was not very prominent. In fact, it’s lower wick looks the same value as the 2 to it’s left.
I wouldn’t have traded the following USD/CAD either, because the second candlestick, (the long red one to the right of our leftmost TD point), crossed our trendline by quite a margin.
Nice clean breakout.
USD/JPY
I wouldn’t have entered this trade because the candlewick lows are suggesting an uptrend, but their ‘highs’ are suggesting a downtrend:
That’s all the charts posted then, from that day, 11th Feb.
I traded this system last week and made 250 pips which I’m happy with, but a long way from feeling confident with it. I need to backtest more.
I’ll try to post some live trades as I go along. (Still in demo of course).
Trade that I am currently in. Came pretty close to my stop loss before heading back down. Still in the negative but as the daily trend shows bearish I am pretty confident about this trade. Will see how confident in a little while :D.
Update: Sorry it took so long…I did get stopped out of this trade, although I had moved my stoploss up so I wound up getting a few pips on this one.
