Mp -- Some Of My Non-secret Secrets

Beginner Questions
43

[B]ah dollyjen — this is the very reason i exist on this glorious LEARNING site, so set thyself down here weedhooper and we shall learn you !

after 5pm, the market does its second MAJOR REVERSE of the day (a major reverse is one that will prob go to the 50 fib, while a minor reverse only goes to the 23 fib (or reasonably close, as fibs arent what they used to be, but then neither is the dollar for that matter !) This is automatic and readily apparent by 6:30pm, for those slow of reflex !

WHATEVER was the dominent trend prior to this time is now REVERSED — yes, LONG becomes SHORT and SHORT becomes LONG and the world is twisted upside down.

this is almost an automatic trade, and usually the point where the H1 trade that is on your chart REALLY BEGINS !

the most wonderful profits can be made by entering trades off the H1 and sleeping peacefully through the night, awakening to find that those on the other side of the pond have made you a rich person while you slept.

Now i would never ask you to run right out and do this, but perhaps on day one you might just PEEK at the chart, and on day two you could actually LOOK at it, and on day 3 you might STUDY it and on day 4 you might say “GOLLY GEE WHILLIKERS, HE MAY JUST HAVE SOMETHING HERE !” and on day 5 ----- whooooooooops ------ sorry, hold off cause this is friday and even though it will work fine, you would have the whole weekend to toss and turn and probably have intestinal problems that could cause you to have to visit the people hospital — best to hold this for DAY ONE of the following week !

enjoy and trade well

mp[/B]

[B][I]Within the great hall at Elfinore stands a wondrous coffer, precisely four cubits square and securely latched against the outside world. Inside that repository, shut away from impertinent eyes, abides many an intriquing trading secret garnered from around the world and over the ages !

As a child, i used to watch from the darkness as the secrets were debated and annotated by the elders. No one there held a single thought of my presence – BUT I KNOW WHERE THEY HID THE KEY !! [/I][/B]

Quote:
Originally Posted by dollyjen
what i know about this is, that trading “after hours” would not be profitable because, the best hours for trading (depending on the pair) will be those when the market has more liquidity. So, if we are talking about the EUR/USD, it is supposed to be between 15:00 EST and 18:00 EST, cause by that time, more traders are entering the market.

44

Hi mp…great thread!

I am currently building a strategy using a lot of the ideas outlined at nobrainertrades.com and I have been looking for a good simple directional/trend indicator. LR Channels could be exactly what I am looking for. :smiley:

Looking forward to reading more of your posts…thanks heaps for sharing.

45

if you are position trading, the LRC is a simple and wonderful tool for just that, as you wont get involved with all the intraday moves (unless you wish to play some) that exist with intraday “position” trading or more commonly known as “scalping” (which is an INCORRECT word for what is being done, but I cant fight the whole world and teach them the correct words !

SCALPING was originally done back in the days of the “SOES” bandits, a bunch of traders working with phone modems and a rule at the stock exchange that allowed “small order execution” trades to rise to the top of the specialists books. In those days, fractions and not decimals ruled the roost, and the spread on stocks was wide compared to today — what we used to do was buy at the bid (hopefully) or just another 1/16th up from the bid, but below the ask, and sell at the ask, gaining 1/16 or 1/8 of a point. Do that repeatedly all day long and it began to look like money.

Unfortunately, that is history as the decimal system was brought in partly to STOP that activity — we were simply eating the specialists lunch, and they were NOT happy about it.

anyway, try the LRC simply because its a tremendously GRAPHIC and easily seen method of determining trend and s+r and try to team it with the s+r indicators i talk about — in this way, you have a very visual idea of where the price is going, without all the lines and flip flops of indicators.

ONE warning about position trading — you WILL face DRAWDOWNS, so be VERY careful with money management and number of trades open — what works well is having two trades in either the SAME currency, or currencies that are moving opposite to each other, open that are trending in OPPOSITE directions, which creates a form of “self hedge” and protects your margin, but even if doing that, dont be a salami and go trading too large amounts for your equity or you will become just another stiff body in the “forex walk of misfortune”

enjoy and trade well

mp

46

Oy,

When are you going to ‘mosey on over’ to ‘paradise lost’ and ‘dump’ that ‘Elfinore signature’ on my thread (along with another ‘pearl of wisdom’ or two)???

Regards,

Dale. (forexbrokersonline.net).

47

Hmmm.

This looks like something I could ‘sink my teeth into’ while I’m waiting for my Wilder ‘stuff’ to generate it’s ‘kajillion’ points (pips) on the daily timeframes!!!

Take a look HERE johnnykanoo:

Investor/RT Tour - Linear Regression

The possibilities are ENDLESS!!!

Regards,

Dale. (forexbrokersonline.net).

48

Oy,

Take a look at this excerpt (form the link that I posted above):

The following approximations offer a few rules of thumb for using the standard deviation settings:
[ul]
[li]Plus or minus one standard deviation takes in 68.3% of all expected outcomes (historical price moves)[/li]> [li]Plus or minus two standard deviations takes in 95.4% of all expected outcomes (historical price moves)[/li]> [li]Plus or minus three standard deviations takes in 99.7% of all expected outcomes (historical price moves)[/li]> [/ul]For example, excursions of price more than 2 standard deviations above or below the regression line represent an unlikely event (less than 5% probable). Such excursions usually represent overbought or oversold conditions.

Now ‘me’ starts to think:

Could one of the standard devations be used for a stop loss??? I know mp does not use stop losses but could this indeed be a way ensure that the ‘new trader’ does not ‘bleed out’ if they’re wrong???

Regards,

Dale. (forexbrokersonline.net).

49

Shane:

I always learn something from your posts, here and elsewhere. I hope you will post your new strategy when it is ready as I know it will be thoughtful and a winner. d.

50

been there bunches of times but got nothing to say until i know what your ideas are, and only time on weekends for that !

dont worry, sooner or later youll be asking me to "get the hell out of town and stop bothering me "

mp

51

be careful dale, cause standard deviations are based on percentages and the current market appears to have shyed away from true fibs and accepted s+r, at least from what I see happening (but I wear glasses, and my need my eyes looked at !)

honestly, in these days of such wide candle ranges, Im impressed with anyone who uses stop losses and DOESNT get consistently stopped out — not because I dont use them, but because the range is just so huge, where does one SET a stop for it to be actually usefull ?

dont think i could even answer that one !

the LRC is a roadmap of what price is doing at the moment and where it is in the scheme of things — it strongly suggests “destinations”, but works well if you already have a hotel in mind !

enjoy and trade well

mp

kewl day today, huh ?

52

Hello,

Well: ‘just for fun’ I’ve ‘sat myself down’ in front of the EUR/USD 5 minute chart with my ‘newly fixed’ LRC’s (100 bars) and have already done a profitable trade i.e. went short at the line forming the upper channel and took profit at the LR line (middle line).

What I’ve ‘figured’ is this though:

I believe you do need a stop ‘of sorts’ (I just used the value of 2 x Wilder’s CORRECTLY CALCULATED AND SMOOTHED ATR(7) at the time of opening the position). The stop NEVER gets moved BUT your TP gets adjusted to whatever the value of the LR line (middle line) is after the close of the current bar. Sometimes your profit target will increase and sometimes it will decrease (obviously) but at least there is a well defined exit point regardless (my ‘exit strategies’ with stuff like this and pivots have always been to 'hold on to the position until it either comes back to me or I can bleed no more)!!!

Another thought is to always trade with ‘even’ lots i.e. in multiples of two e.g. open a trade with two lots, TP one of them (one half of the position) at the LR line (middle line) and TP the other at the line that forms the opposite channel. If you don’t get ‘that lucky’ then you simply get stopped out at whatever stop you’ve set by whatever method.

Turns out that MY LRC’s are ‘Raff Channels’ by the way.

I now ‘keenly’ await the line forming the lower channel to be ‘touched’!!! (I always feel more ‘comfortable’ going long i.e. going short never ‘feels right’ to me but I suppose this is a legacy of trading equities. NOW you know why my performance with LEHMAN was so ‘stunning’. ME??? Short a stock??? NEVER!!! If ONLY I knew!!!)!!!

As with anything: WAITING for the setup is ‘key’ though (and a ‘just a tad’ frustrating if the truth be told)!!!

Don’t get me wrong: I ain’t ‘betting the farm’ on this (I have my Wilder ‘stuff’ for that) but it’s (to coin your phrase) ‘kewl’ to have something ELSE to do than post ‘inane messages’ all of the show!!! HEY: this one trade paid for a bottle of Captain Morgan so I ain’t complaining!!!

Regards,

Dale. (forexbrokersonline.net).

53

harumphhhhh !

mp

oh yeah — congrats !

54

Well you see: therein lies the problem!!! In the situation you describe: I’d be analysing SOMETHING!!!

But I’ve got to say this: thanks for ‘imparting your wisdom’ here. I’d never REALLY given LRC’s a second thought really (and only used them, as I said, as a ‘filter of sorts’ for one of my ‘Wilder’ systems). You’ve ‘sparked some interest’ here (I think it was your inferences to upsetting Barclay’s that did it for me)!!! LOL!!!

What I did today (and what’s great) is trade ‘counter’ to whatever ‘Wilder position’ I have open on the same pair (using a hedge as you also noted) and, of course, the TP on the LRC trade will only serve to increase the profit on the ‘Wilder position’ when it comes time to close.

I’m experimenting (not to complicate matters of course) with using the ‘typical’ price ((H+L+C)/3) instead of the closing price in the calculation of the LR and it would appear that this ‘catches’ more tops and bottoms than using only the closing price. Just for fun you know!!!

Regards,

Dale. (forexbrokersonline.net).

55

Hi MP:
I tried drawing LCR and SHI_CHANNEL_true (I wasn’t able to find SHI_CHANNEL_Real anywhere after googling) on my GU M15 chart. I attached the chart. As you can see, the price moved over top line of SHI_Channel, but it is on the middle of LCR. SHI_Channel trend is down, but LCR is is little up.

Now, how to trade this? Should I wait until the price hits LCR top line or should I assume that since LCR middle line and SHI top line met,hence the price comes down to bottom of SHI though the price seems to be going up (or staying there) as of now?

Can you please clarify?

Thanks…

gpuusd_m15_lrc.jpg700×428 37.4 KB

56

hey dale thanks for the link i didnt get to read it to much yet my mind is to tired. I accually had to work today :frowning: sometimes I can’t wait to sell my business coz all day all i could do was pay half attention to my laptop and I missed some good opportunity allthough the markets seemed to be in a tight range still i guess everybody is waiting to see if ecb will cut more than 50bps and boe cut 100bps ??? I dnt know. i guess i would know more if i didnt have to work today :slight_smile:

57

oh yeah, i squished my chart a little to show the bands, but its the same as yours just further down the road a bit

enjoy and trade well

mp

GU 15 MIN LRC.jpg700×389 57.3 KB

58

Being a newb, a lot of the “stuff” you guys are talking about is over my feeble head. There seem to be a lot of innuendo that completely passes me by (I guess it does not fly by, but I still do not understand what is meant :)) Regardless of the information that I do not absorb, I still have learned some important points from this thread.

So far my demo trading results are better and I am up 13% each day for the past 2 days after incorporating these channels into not only my entrance but also my exit strategies. This is in contrast to being down over 20% for the week before :). Anyway, I still have a lot of demo trades before I start playing with some (very low amount) of cash, but its nice to see a couple days of positive numbers.

Sorry I have no positive wisdom to impart on the masses, but want to throw my thanks out there.

59

think you just imparted some great wisdom for a lot of newbs out there and allow me to say, when you stop being a sallow faced youth and shave like a real man, you can ride with us hombres and have a few of your own innuendoes also !

lookin forward to that day pahdna !

ride well and prosper

mp

60

In my never ending quest for truth, justice and the american way, another freebie that ive been receiving for a while now.

i wont argue its merits or otherwise, but it be a lot of fun for the price !

Currency Trader Magazine: Welcome

enjoy and trade well

mp

61

Fantastic!!!

And ‘that’s not all’!!!

I see they also offer a free subscription to ‘Futures & Options Trader’ (to which I’m assuming you’ve also subscribed)!!! LOL!!!

Regards,

Dale. (forexbrokersonline.net).

62

I thought you may appreciate this:

I subscribed to BOTH (OBVIOUSLY) and to my ‘shock and horror and amazement’ I received the confirmation emails informing me that my JUNE issue was ready for download!!! Anyway: turns out that THEY are not aware that most NORMAL people have their dates in ‘dd/mm/yyyy’ format so it’s just the email that’s incorrect i.e. the download links still point, correctly, to the current issues.

Oh I’m used to this kind of thing: Microsoft STILL believe that we have DST!!!

What I noticed on the cover of ‘Futures & Options Trader’ is that there is an article on trading futures with RSI. NO!!! Could it be??? Not WILDER’S RELATIVE STRENGTH INDEX SURELY!!! (I’ve not read the article yet because it’s still downloading as I type this message but it had BETTER be good).

Regards,

Dale. (forexbrokersonline.net).