LOL, yes, I put pairs in “time out” if they don’t act right. EURJPY is currently sitting with it’s nose in the corner 
I know what I need… A person standing behind me with a ruler, who whacks my mouse hand when I try to move a stop away from an approaching price :mad:
I might need to try your rubber band trick, or maybe a 9V battery on the tongue. :eek:
PS: Love the grumpatar. Well done to Merchant Prince
I missed the chat room on Friday due to family commitments. Also, I was beginning to look like a character out of Twilight, due to lack of sunlight. (Those of you with daughters will know what I mean. Heck, even my wife raves about that show!)
So, if pairs have been assigned this weekend, can someone please post the list so I can pick an empty slot?
Cheers,
Hachi
If you need to move the stop to stay in a good trade, then the stop was poorly chosen in the first place. Let it stop out if it must. Don’t try to avoid your just punishment. Take it like a world class trader. That pain of loss is the price we all must pay to learn to place better stops. It is your “rubber band”.
No pair assignments this weekend. I’ll answer specific questions the best I can if someone has one. Others should feel free to help with the reviews also. Two heads are better than one :)
I think we have enough examples that you can read over and see the long term will not have changed much. That’s the beauty of the long term, even a 100 pip opening gap is just a small bump. I’d suggest you print out the analysis from the previous week or two and update them your self and put them in your traders journal for reference. Once you are this far along, it’s just a matter of updating from last week. It gets easier and faster each weekend. But you’ll want to pay special attention to the longer term charts. See if you can find the Chanel that the eu had been moving down on the weekly chart since Nov. 29 2009. We just touched the bottom of that channel last week. See the perfect BB DNA CBL entry on usdjpy that occurred on the monthly chart with the June 2007 extreme candle. It never retraced and moved down 3000 pips.The actual CBL extreme entry candle can be seen on the 1H chart June 22 occurring at 8 AM my market watch time. The entry candle was two hours later and a 17 pip stop would have put you in this trade. But you either had to be there, or know how to get in later. We have been learning how to do this the past few weeks. There is much to see. But you have already learned most of what you need to know.
Eventually the charts are remembered and when you click on a pair, it’s monthly, weekly and daily chart flash in the back of your mind. You can just click on the 4 hr and the 1 hr and be up to speed on what happened over night from one day to the next. Eventually you start to expect things to happen and they do, most of the time. Instead of every day being a surprise, surprises are rare and interesting novelties.
You’ll see patterns as the greatest pattern recognition machine on earth, the human brain, struggles to make sense of the information repeatedly put in front of it. Then the patterns start to form between pairs in your mind, like commodities up, au, ucad, nzdusd all move in unison. Strong dollar, ucad up, eu down, gu down, but gu moving more. Eventually, the whole Forex is a picture you paint in your mind and just quickly update every morning and when the market is closed on weekends. So when eu drops to 1.2000 and stops on a dime and turns back up, it’s really no surprise at all. Now if it kept falling to 1.1000, that would be interesting indeed.
When you come to the deeper understanding that all the charts of a pair are just different representations of the same price, you can move effortlessly from TF to TF seeing everything that price has to tell you all at once. You are practicing that now. You’ll need some fundamental information to complete your picture, but you know how to find that quickly now. And as the interrelations between the currencies become more apparent, it’s obvious how uj will move knowing how eu and gu are moving. You’ll see the swiss bank intervening or deciding to let the franc float and know how those decisions will affect other currencies.
At that point you won’t need to day trade for pips. You’ll know the big pips are made by using the same tools you learned in day trading to swing trade for several days or weeks at a time, and position trade for months at a time making 1000 to 2000 pips per trade. You’ll day trade to gain good position and size for minimal risk on a swing trade, and swing trade to gain good position and size for minimal risk on a position trade that will run for months at a time, making thousands of pips on very many lots.
The 5 lot system is just a starter set I put it together to optimize trading trends of about 100 pips, usually the most you’ll see in a day. All the same methods, even Tymen’s CBL, scale right on up, with care, to swing trades and position trades on daily, weekly and monthly charts of 1000 to 2000 pips each. The wonderful thing about those trades, they do take some time and study to set up, but then almost no time to manage for days, weeks and months afterward. That’s where we are all headed. When everyone is ready, we’ll all go there together. I can’t say what’s after that because I never went beyond that. I never really wanted to. I guess George Soros went on and challenged the Bank of England and won, but that’s not my goal. I’d rather enjoy my kids and grandkids instead. You have the tools for all this already. Sure we’ll make pips on day trades, lots of pips. But that isn’t our goal. It’s just a means to an end. We have bigger things in mind. Much bigger.
Happy Trading
Been busy lately with family and work commitments so missed all the action during the volatile days recently.
Would like to confirm/summarise my understanding of trade selection in trend trading. Obviously the Cable and EURUSD have been showing strong downtrends in all timeframes so shouldn’t be too difficult to see good short opportunity on the 30min or 1hr TFs for these 2 pairs off the top BB.
However sometimes when using the 30min/1hr as the home chart, I see the 1hr TF, 4hr TF and the daily going in different directions for some pairs. In such situations, would you not even consider trading such a setup until,
a) All 3 TFs trend in the same direction
b) At least 2 TFs trend in the same direction
c) The closest 2 TFs to the home chart trend in the same direction.
d) Some other minimum criteria
Obviously a) is always the safest but such perfect conditions don’t exist forever. If and when that condition doesn’t exist then i was wondering how strictly do you define the minimum criteria for selection of with trend trades?
Or is the answer just sitting on your hands until a) comes into being again?
Absolutely! Amen to that! 
Same questions for me. It will be interesting for Grav to answer this. Does he take only option a) ? or would be a bit considerate and also does take option b) or c)?
Wow great post Graviton! Kind of reminded me about trading, getting a good daytrade entry into trend, then do something ELSE lol and not fidget around!
My entry on the eu @ 1.42 comes to mind and this is the last time i´ll ever mention it lol!
I would like to elaborate on this post but im stuck, thanks for the remindeer its easy to get lost in the money market, too stray from the plan as a newbie:). Looking forward to the next posts as always:)!
… and i must also add i think its really cool Tymens method was so well endorsed by another professional trader, i think i and many other takes great comfort in that! See ya Monday:cool:!
Very inspirational speech Graviton…very inspirational.
This reminds me why I decided to quit my day job and place my efforts into doing something I love.
Hey guys,
man, already 50 pages.
I read, and read and read and cant stop because its so interesting to me!!!
I have many more pages to read until i catch up to you guys but i want to leave [B]IronHeart[/B] a quick thanks for the 5-lot graphic.
I was working on one myself, but then i fell in love with his!
Great work. I will print it out!
So true [B]RenaLa[/B]!!
Graviton, once again amazing stuff.
IronHeart, thanks for putting in the time creating the indicator, i think it will be really useful.
Can’t thank everyone here enough, the methods and advice given here are teaching me things about forex that i could not learn anywhere else, just brilliant stuff.
Looking forward to next week. Keep an eye on GBP/USD on London open, could be very interesting after the election results here in the UK on Friday!
Have a great weekend
Awesome work [B]NorwegianBlue[/B]!
Tested it and works great as far as i can say!
Thanks!
As usual, there is no simple answer, which is why most people never get as far along as you are before they give up and quit. Most people are looking for simple answers to get rich quick and the markets don’t work that way. Without a deeper understanding of PA than just a few MA’s, the markets will whipsaw anyone into insolvency. Let’s look at an example and learn from that.
It’s difficult to get a good CBL retracement entry on the 30M or 1H when the pair is already in a strong sustained trend. I’ve discussed the technique for that in other posts. But we did get a good 30M CBL entry on EURUSD Friday morning May 7th about 6:30 AM EST as I was having my morning coffee and studying charts. Of course I’m watching all time frames and not just the 30M and 1H home TF, so I saw the falling price action the 5M and 15M charts flowing upward to the 30M chart before there was an entry on the 30M CBL. That’s what MTFTT is all about.
If you look at the weekly and monthly charts for the EU in the last 6 months, it’s obvious why I was looking specifically for a short entry on the EU. I have these memorized, so I don’t even have to look. You need to study this specific move at that time on the charts for a few minutes to catch up to me here.
The probability of good O-O or O-BB action is much higher when trading WITH the longer term PA trends. That’s the only way I trade, WITH the longer term PA trend. So [B]forget MA’s even exist. You don’t need them at all to trade my system optimally[/B], and they can be a great distraction from what’s really important, Price Action. I keep all MA’s except the Mid BB 20SMA on my “junk” chart so they won’t mess up my trading. I’d probably trade better just blanking out the Mid-BB 20SMA, but that’s a little extreme.
Anyway, this trade is an example of where the 30M entry would have taken a stop of more than 40 pips, but I didn’t want to risk that much, so I moved down to 15M and entered a valid CBL there with what I considered to be a more reasonable stop of 25 pips. Actually, I could have entered with less than 20 per Tymen’s rules, but I didn’t think that was enough considering the recent market volatility. As it turned out, just as Tymen said, his CBL works on all TF’s and a stop of 20 pips would have been fine for entry. That pair ran down for about 4 hours and about 100 pips down for O-BB PA on the 15 minute and O-O on the 30 minute. I increased my sl a little as the trade developed, and tightened it as the falling PA slowed and gave a near doji right at the bottom on the 15M chart. I did very well with the 5 lot making considerably more than 100 pips, as the 5 lot is designed to do.
The point is, this trade was triggered from the 15M and 30M TF’s and the mid BB trend was actually up on the 15M and 30M charts when I took the short trade. This will usually be the case. The price will climb and hit the outer BB and bounce off for a good retracement entry into a good existing down trend (reverse for up trend). The mid bb is just a 20SMA and hasn’t had time yet to see the change in PA direction so it is still indicating an uptrend. That’s the problem with lagging indicators, which all the MA’s are. By the time you see a direction change on a shorter term mid bb 20SMA, you have missed a large part of the move. So you have to take the retracement entry to the down trend just as the PA is bouncing off the top BB per Tymen’s BB DNA method. So we trade PA, not MA’s. There is a BIG difference.
Like I said, the 30M Mid BB was trending up, as it usually will on these good retracement entries. Even the 1M, 5M, and 15M Mid BB 20SMA’s were all trending up at the time of the trade. This is why I DO NOT recommend trading off MA’s. But the PA was already dropping on all these lower TF’s before the 30M CBL entry signal was given. See if you can see that dropping PA showing a change to lower price on the lower TF’s.
The PA for H1 was was flat-ish to slight up when I took the trade, but the PA for the H4 and above were all down and had been for a while. [B]Looking at the longer term charts’ PA, of 4H, daily, weekly and monthly tells you your bias, in this case a strong sustained down bias, looking at PA closest to your home chart area, 1h, 30M & 15M for this trade, gives your entry, and looking at the PA on the shorter term charts provides the optimum timing for your entry.[/B]
All that being the case you should take only down trades with the long term down PA trend to maximize your probability of profit. The entry signal should come from the charts close to those you have chosen as your home chart, or the 15M, 30M or 1H for me in this case. Note that I don’t just watch one chart as my “home chart”. I watch a range of two or three as my “Home Area” always scanning for trade set-ups. We will soon consider entry signals for 4H and daily charts for swing trades, but we need another week to perfect this MTFTT. You’ll love swing trades.
Did this all make sense? If you have questions please ask. Everyone needs to understand this very well before we move on or they will be lost from here on out. I try to explain what I do as best I can, but many of these things are just reflexes now and very difficult for me to put in words, so please keep asking questions if anything isn’t crystal clear.
RenaLa, I’d advise you to forget about this indicator. It can be a distraction. I will teach you something much better this week if you can just be patient and hang in there with me 
Let me advise everyone following this thread to pay close attention this week. We will be wrapping up the basics of MTFTT and soon move on to catch bigger fish. Anyone who hasn’t grasped the basic concepts of trading PA in a MTFTT context will be lost. Ignore EA’s. They are a distraction. I will teach you to program and use the most powerful pattern recognition computer on earth, the human mind. You will start to recognize patterns in price that were there all along, but no EA could ever find. This will all get much easier over the next week.
If you are looking for a “set and forget” trading method, it is coming. It’s called position trading, but these basics must be mastered to execute it properly with limited capital and minimum risk. Just be patient, do your pair analysis, perfect your trading plan. We are almost there.
Hi Graviton
I found the Channel for eur-usd that has been moving since November, 2009
I can see that it touched the bottom of that channel, but I still cant say where PA will go up or down ??
It difficult to say is it Bubble type or sausage forming?
In case it is sausage type then it couldnt even reach the middle band. :rolleyes:
well, its sausage type, that is even worse
I have just realized I sped past one of the most important concepts to becoming a successful trader, a trading plan. I realized this as I was reviewing my own plan.
Hachiko submitted a couple for review and comment last week. I must say, Hachiko did a good job, but he is about two weeks ahead of what we want at this stage. His trading plan is well suited to position trading, where a lot of attention is focused into one pair because one trade can net thousands of pips. We aren’t quite there yet, but we will all be there in a couple weeks. When we get there, we will pull out Hachiko’s trading plan and use it as a starting point.
What we are looking for is a more generalized plan that can be applied to any trade on any pair. Basically it is the rules you will day trade by, whatever the pair. Please study the following link and complete your personal trading plan before we move forward. I don’t need to see them, but I will be happy to answer any specific questions if I can. This is to be your personal trading plan tailored to your specific trading style and needs. It will go through many revisions and upgrades over your trading career, and that is it’s purpose.
How to Build a Trading Plan: Examples & Samples of Forex Trading Plans
Postscript: If you Google Forex Trading Plan Example you can see some examples. Some are not very good or not nearly detailed enough, some are better. Think of how you would write it if someone were going to code it into a computer. It wouldn’t be enough to just say, pick a stop, you would have to define just how the machine was going to pick the stop. Not to worry, your plans will improve greatly over time. Everyone’s does.
You have good eyes for charts RenaLa. That will help you along the way.
Yes, this formation appears as a trumpet on the daily chart. In the spirit of MTFTT, moving up to the monthly chart you can see a very common formation, a price returning to the bottom BB after hitting TP1, but never quite making it to the outer top BB, or TP2. If you plot a set of inner BB’s, with settings at 1 std dev and 20 periods, you’ll see price turned right on the top inner BB. This happens quite often.
As to what price will do in the future, I would not be surprised if it continues to fall after a pull back into the channel. It would not surprise me if it fell then to about 1.2000 and and touched or penetrated the bottom BB before turning back up. The 1.2000 mark should then be hit about the third week in June. But of course, price can do anything.
Thank you very much for posting the chart. Much appreciated.
I started to write my trading plan last week and it has already been amended, twice!
I can really see the importance of having a plan and sticking to it.
It can keep you out of bad trades as well as get you into the good ones:)