Lots of movement in the topic since i last saw it in the morning!
yes and alot of very valuable information is recorded!
thanks for being nice trading companion Graviton
special thanks to NorwegianBlue, it always nice to keep a note of the main trend and a filter of course
Grav, (AUD/NZD Daily) I need a CBL refresher. The chart has the red line where you entered. The green line shows where I would have entered with my understanding of the CBL rule assuming Stochās confirmed. Based on my trade rules I would have entered the once the next to last green candle closed. I donāt understand how your entry is so far above that.
Wow, thanks for the advice graviton! So weāll enter only on the 4HR chart after thereās a break of trendline, or could we look into the 1hr for a better entry? Or would it be less reliable?
Looks like I made a late entry. I probably just slept in and missed it.
I use breaks of retracement trend lines to enter sometimes, if I believe price has completed a retracement and is returning to itās main trend. I canāt say 4H is more reliable. It lasts longer. So you can exit if itās going against you for small pips loss, or sometimes ride a good trend a long way if itās going with you.
Hello the Great Man, thank you for your idea, you are inspiration. I saw this thread a few days ago and I use it for 15m tf. This is a brilliant idea, you are the man.
I combine your method with my entry rules ( I modify a little about the stoploss ) , so the time the A profit +20 I move the SL to -2 ( brokerās spread is 2).
This is my back test.
Thank you very much Graviton,
Have a nice day
Best regards
Joe
I think we need 1 more rule. Yesterday 1 of the chat people had losses in AU, so additional rule:
Any pair that is not trading according to the way we are trading will be banned from Forex.
Graviton,
You one time mentioned that you will spend two hours researching before you will enter a trade.
Can you provide me with some insight into that? Having a trading plan and knowing you have done some good research is really the key here. At the moment I think my research is trend, checkā¦ sr lines checkā¦ experts agree with me checkā¦ enter trade.
Not the best planā¦
ninety9, I am still in au trade, my trend line has not been broken yet 
Great chart. We like charts 
Iām glad to see you are getting good results. Please continue to share charts as you have time.
Happy Trading
I enjoyed our trading as well and made lots of good pips. Looks like you are well on your way now. Let me know when you get a trading plan made and how that goes for you, OK?
Iām busy with kids, grandkids, friends, and lots of holiday planning today, so there will be very little trading for me. Monday is a holiday here in the States, so it will be Tuesday before Iām back up to full speed. Have a good weekend
sure, I let you know! My trading plan is first priority and number #1 on my to do list.
Have a happy holiday
Ok, here is what I hope is a good idea for a trade. Well I am already in it but for a long term trade for everyone.
Negative of the Trade: If you are already in the euro/usd trade this would double your exposure.
Pros of the Trade: I have been watching both pairs for awhile now. This pair will gain you pips much faster that the euro/usd.
Target: The S1 at 1.4191. That is 2883 pips.
Here is the Daily chart. You will notice it has been going down for a long time now. It just had a recent spike but it is in the process of correcting for it. To me that is a good sign. And a lot of darn pips!!!
Now here is the 4h chart. Right now it is hitting the price action channel. I believe the spike affected the channel away from the major trend. But a break from here is a great indicator that i am right.
And here is the 1h chart to show were the lower price action and trend is going. I believe it shows that it will break lower.
Well thatās my pitch. I am already in this trade. Let me know your thoughtsā¦
Thanks for the charts jonesboy! The weekly chart shows a superb channel downtrend! And it closed of with a dark cloud cover, hope im right on that term.
Thanks for sharing man.
Hi graviton, could you kindly explain to me again on your criteria for a re entry on a swing/position trade if you get stopped out.
Or do you not re enter? Thank you.
Good pitch, thanks for the charts!
Iāve been watching this pair since the daily chart set a good CBL about 500 pips ago, or around Ap. 24th. I scan every daily and H4 chart every day looking for these set-ups. It only takes a few seconds to glance at each chart and after some practice you can run through them about twice a day and find good set-ups like this in just a short period first thing in the morning and after lunch. I noted it in my traders log at the time I first saw it. Unfortunately, I didnāt take the trade when I saw the set-up on the daily chart. The previous week was a big up week candle and I just couldnāt bring myself to pull the trigger even though I had a clear CBL signal. There will always be a good reason not to enter a good trade, but that just causes me to miss many good trades and take sorry ones instead.
Thatās the biggest problem with my personal trading these days. I see clear set-ups but for whatever reason I donāt take them. Anyway, I suppose we are all working on something in our personal trading and thatās my top priority at the moment. I actually now have a rule in my trading plan to always identify the #1, #2 and #3 things I need to be working on at any time and thatās now #1. I donāt see any point in trying to concentrate on more than the top three as just fixing those would be quite an accomplishment. Iām sure after I get those fixed, there will others to work on. There always has been. I think itās just the nature of this business. The important point is to know just where you are in developing your personal trading plan and what your #1 priority is to improve it. If you donāt know what your #1 priority is, you probably wonāt make any progress in fixing it.
So, enough about me, letās look at this trade some more. This trade actually started developing in January 2009 with a good penetration of the monthly top BB and a pull back and a messy ācut the extreme candle in halfā entry in April 2009, before I even knew what a CBL entry was. Since I didnāt have Tymenās simple method for identifying these trades at the time, and my method was way too complex with multiple indicators being confirmed by price action at the end, I didnāt see the trade at the time. That was about 4500 pips ago.
The weekly chart was messy too because of the HUGE bull extreme candle in October 2008. We did get a nice valid CBL entry in May 2009, again before I knew what a CBL was. The ācut the entry candle in halfā method would have put me in in March 2009, and my previous entry method based on a combination of indicators would have put me in at the same time. That was still about 4500 pips ago.
Now, these entries were at or below the 20SMA Mid BB, but we donāt care about that in long term trading since there are thousands of pips to be made even if you take a valid entry at the Mid BB. Anyway, I started watching this possible trade on the daily chart just a couple weeks ago after the two big bull candles penetrated the outer BB band. These days, anytime price penetrates the outer BB band on a 4H or daily chart it goes on my watch list.
We had a valid 1 candle entry on the daily chart on 5-24-2010, confirmed by a valid 2 candle entry on 5-27-2010. I sat there frozen and watching as price dropped another 400 pips from the 1 candle entry at the beginning of last week. You can see now why I say that is the #1 priority to fix in my trading plan right now. But we all have our own trading demons to fight, so on with the technicals of the trade.
Per Tymen, a CBL entry is valid until a more extreme candle is formed, or until the opposite BB it hit. Neither of those have happened yet so the CBL is still valid. All trade filters are good and 50% of daily ATR is about 150 pips, which is a recommended entry stop for a daily chart entry.
I would advise entering this trade with a tighter stop of say 25% of daily ATR or 75 pips, and actually early exiting if it moves 75 pips against me before the second day in the trade, and just look for another better entry price. One of two things can happen, price either goes up or down. Iāll usually make good on these tight stop entries for long term trades a little more than half or 50% of the time
In the other 50% of the time price moves against me and I early exit on a relatively small bad entry loss. But thatās small relative to the pips to be made, not to a 30M trade. To trade in the world of big pips, you you have to adjust your thinking to hundreds and thousands of pips, rather than to 10ās on the shorter TFās.
In a little more than 50% of the time that I do take a relatively small bad entry loss, I wind up going back in at a slightly better price to cover paying the spread twice and Iām still be ahead of where I would have been if Iād just taken the risk of riding out the short retracement with a wider stop. So that all that adds up to about 75% to 85% good overall entries. That in itself is considered good entry technique.
So less than 25% of the time, price runs against me and I incur a relatively small bad entry stop loss, and price keeps running against me and I donāt get a better entry before the CBL becomes invalid.
Since I only allow one whipsaw loss per situation, per my trading rules, if I get a second bad entry causing a second whipsaw loss, Iām done with that situation forever. I wonāt try to re-enter until a new valid CBL is set, which I would consider to be a new situation.
You need to carefully track and measure these numbers on your own. It seems the more carefully you track and watch them, the better they get.
If you have any other technical questions about this trade Iāll try to answer.
As far as fundamental, yes, you are counting on the Euro to fall faster than the Aud over the next weeks and months. That seems reasonable since the Euro has a crisis every day and the The economy in Oz would be just fine if the government would just leave it alone.
Thanks for being one of the few people who pitched a long term trade to me, with charts! Iām sure this has been helpful to others as well as myself, so my sincere thanks to you.
Any questions or comments from anyone?
Thanks Graviton for the input and donāt kick yourself to hard for not entering earlier. It shows you do have self control and it is something that I have to learn.
I have been in this trade 4 or 5 times now but each time I was to stupid to take a look at the big picture and exited each time with good pips at the first retrace.
I really need to start thinking before every trade. Why am i getting into this trade and what are my goals for this trade.
The risk reward ratio for scalping compared to thoughtful long term trading just canāt be beat.
Using your suggested 75 pip stop loss as an example. I am sure I have lost over 75 pips this week on bad trades that had no where near the risk to reward ratio a trade like this can bring.
I am trying to understand your tighter stop. Is it because it has already moved off of the bb and is hitting the channel? Which might bring some volatility to the trade at this particular point before it continues down. I hope I am getting that right
Thanks again for your analysis of the trade Graviton and I hope you are enjoying your holiday with your family.
25% daily ATR or 75 pips is just a small stop to start thinking about risking. 105 pips is the 4H ATR. If you could stay in the trade through several 4 hour candles, youāll have a good idea how the trade is going and might gain enough pips to be able to make several days. About 110 pips puts the stop slightly above the last swing high, which might make a better stop risk. 150 pips would be about 50% of daily ATR, generally considered a good entry stop on the daily. After looking at it more carefully, I would probably try to optimize my entry and do so with a 110 pip stop.