My Basic Chart Analysis Method

That is basically what Phil is suggesting… we enter once the current candle (following the reversal candle) has gone a few pips above the high of the reversal candle. But don’t wait for it to close otherwise you’ll miss out on too much profit :slight_smile:

That was a clarifying answer. Thanks phil :slight_smile:

By the way, I am looking also on the GBP\USD and I see a good option for going long. Look at that long wick…it started after it hit a scalp line and there is good price action…what do you think?

Here is a pic:

Yes now I see, but I thought maybe it can be good for most similar cases.
ok we are almost there…it is about breaking the previous high.

And we are in the trade!

It’s a pretty good trade setup but I won’t be entering it for two reasons.

First, I’m already in a GBP/USD trade right now :), and secondly because the pair correlates too closely with GBP/JPY.

If you zoom your charts out and look at GBP/USD and GBP/JPY you’ll see that the overall movements of the two pairs pretty much move in the same direction at the same time. Since we’re already in a long reversal trade on GBP/JPY I don’t want to get into another one on GBP/USD because 99% of the time either both trades will win, or both trades will lose. So all you’re really doing is doubling up on your position, which is a money management no-no in my book. :slight_smile:

LOL I have just zoomed out to look at them and they are perfectly the same…good to know that. Thanks gain lol.

All pairs with a certain currency in common will be correlated. Just look at GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY, and USD/JPY. If you take the names off the charts you can’t tell them apart. :slight_smile:

Yes, you are right. It is great I can learn so much here!

By the way, our GBP\JPY is pulling itself together :slight_smile:

Ha, I am watching it nervously. I’m sure it will be ok though. If we think ahead positively, are we now waiting to see what the price does around the previous swing high level? What exactly are we looking for?

Now that we’re in the trade I’m off to bed. I’ve got a price alarm set for 156.40, so once it hit’s that level I’ll get up, reevaluate what’s going on, and I’ll post what I’m going to do here.

Normally I like for trades to be over quickly, but I’m hoping this one lasts for at least 8 hours so I can get some sleep. :slight_smile:

Good luck to everyone!

Don’t watch it too close. Trades like this can take up to 24 hours or more to finish. It will go up and down during that time, and if you watch it too closely you’ll drive yourself nuts! :slight_smile:

For an exit sign we’re basically looking for the same thing we looked for on the entry. If you start to see [I]closed [/I]candles with long wicks, dojis, or IBs then that’s a sign to get out of the trade. Also a clear bounce off the swing high would be an exit sign.

The candle is moving down from 154.40… and I believe 154.30 can act as a scalpline for a buy for a quick 50 pips, if the price touches 154.30… I am watching closely…

Bang… stopped out just like that. I wait hours to take a trade, then lose it in the space of an hour. Starting to think whatever trade I’m planning on taking, do the exact opposite! :frowning:

FMC, the same thing happened to me and I am new to this stuff as well. I do think the trade was well based, I think its the nature of the beast that is forex.

I know… and I am being sensible with my risk but it’s still frustrating. Can’t seem to be able to make any winning trades. Even one would be enough!

I was just reading some articles on foxnews.com and this article caught my eye, I also noticed that the other big jpy pairs usdjpy and eurjpy took huge drops this morning, could this type of news have played a significant role in those as well as the quick drop in this trade?

TOKYO � Japan’s prime minister has dissolved the powerful lower house of parliament and called national elections.

The speaker of the lower house announced the move Tuesday, setting the stage for a vote that could trigger a rare change in Japan’s political leadership. Aso has said he will call the national vote for Aug. 30.

The ruling Liberal Democratic Party has had a majority in the lower house for most of the past 50 years.

But the main opposition, the Democratic Party of Japan, has won a series of local elections and drawn broad support in recent polls.

The party that wins a majority in the lower house picks the prime minister and government ministers from among its ranks.

Japan’s PM Dissolves Parliament, Calls Elections - foxnews.com/story/0,2933,534181,00.html?test=latestnews

Bummer on that trade!! :frowning:

Guys, I think our mistake was entering too early. I can see that the 155.250 is a scalp line…isn’t it? I think we made a mistake by entering the moment it touched that line instead of waiting to see a major break. That touch isn’t enough for spotting a scalp line…never mind, it is a learning progress and the best way to learn in my opinion is by trail and error, so it’s ok.

Just take note that I am still behind my previous post - there is a good chance that we will see a double top here…and I am planning to trade the neck line breakout if it will keep going down cause it is also a scalp line.
But it is too early to talk about it cause we still have a main uptrend here until the low ill become a lower low.

Ben

Yes Rocket there was news - according to the forex factory calendar there is high impact US news today, tomorrow and Thurs at 3pm London time (10am New York time). so I think stay out of the market in the afternoon (for Londoners!)

Phil - this was my first time trading this way, how many times is it successful on average? Would you say for every 3 winners you get 1 loser? I really want to stay with this method and perfect it :slight_smile:

cheers

Prime Minister Aso was expected to call elections for a while now. Can’t see it having had that much of an effect on the JPY. His support numbers are very low anyway.

I’m more concerned about a sell-off in stocks (possibly due to Bernanke’s questioning this afternoon) causing a JPY rally. And another interesting thing to look at is the COT data which has speculative positions growing larger in the JPY COT Positioning Warns of Yen Weakness

Today is certainly not helping my AUD/JPY position.

Phil, I went for a long for a quick 50 pips assuming that it would act as a scalp line… It did go up 30 pips but ultimately it was looser… Stopped out at 50 pips… 2 Qestions on this one.

  1. Is 154.30 can be a scalp line ? I saw two bounces on 4 hr chart right at 154.30 so I conisder this as a scalpline. Is this right ?

  2. If this a scalp line, since the price is coming down, playing long for quick 50 pips is the scalp strategy, right ?

I am not concerned about loosing pips but want to make sure I played the game with the right rules… Appreciate your help on this one… Thank YOU !!