Some weakness slipped into the close yesterday that continued though the early sessions. Enough to flip the 1H near term into neutral. Which is not surprising after a few updays and with little fresh input. Daily and 4H both still technically positive but I am not really convinced about the potential for more upside here.
I have a small short position open with a focus on last Friday’s close - just to get back into the swing of it and to have something to focus on - but am still not properly up and running after a few weeks break so need to do some background research before commenting further. Friday is again the month end, so normal trading will resume next week…
My stop is just above that range in the yellow box which we last broke out of. But we couldn’t sustain the break above 1.17. If we find the strength to climb back there then we will have also broken above the daily pivot and I will not want to be short any more. If we don’t, then we may typically find our way back to the last weekly close…but. like I said, the objective is more just to get back into the rhythm after the annual “maintenance break”
Hey Manxx. Great stuff you area posting here. Very new in BabyPips and reading your post with great interest.
Been trading for the past two years with success and failures (mostly failures while learning). I am near London and Intend to watch the GBP, EUR, USD pairs.
I hope to finally be on the road to success slowly abb following your views and analysis.
Great work!!
On Friday the Euro closed on, or close to, its 4H 200 SMA against GBP, JPY, USD and CAD!
It is currently performing best against AUD and worst against CHF.
But I guess my pick would be looking to sell EU and EJ unless they trade and close on Monday above their 4H 200 SMA’s which I had at 1.15874 and 128.870 on Friday’s close respectively.
No signs of follow-through weakness yet with EU or EJ. I think it is worth waiting until the close today to see if there are confirmations of direction before taking any positions here.
As I have said before, this is not intended as a trading thread with regular recommendations and updates simply because I do not want the responsibility for prompt updating, rather it is just my occasional thoughts on what could be called “things European including currencies”.
However, I have been thinking about putting here some thoughts on the Euro against the other various majors based on a daily charting analysis and using the 4H/1H to call the entry and exits. Being historically a shorter term trader, I am not sure how this is going to work out but I’ll give it a go! - and I have changed the thread title accordingly!
I have no open positions at present, but I am also watching for a possible long against CAD if we close firm today…
On a quiet US Labor Day there is time to look at something else. During August I managed at last to visit Scotland, something I have wanted to do for many years.
Driving up through Glasgow for a week around Loch Ness and Inverness before returning via Edinburgh and almost the entire length of the A1/A1(M) to London and a flight home.
The main highlights were a tour of the GlenGoyne distillery, the Loch Ness Museum, Fort George and the battlefield/museum of Culloden – that fateful one-hour battle between the Highland Jacobites and the English troops.
The battle of Culloden on 16 April 1746 ended the Jacobite claim of Charles Edward Stuart to the throne of England, being defeated by the Hanoverian forces commanded by William Augustus, Duke of Cumberland, aged 25 at the time!
However, Scottish identity and its spirit of independence seems just as strong today and is overtly visible in its attitudes towards Brexit. Issues concerning how Scottish laws and trade will continue post-Brexit, and even whether Scotland would leave the UK and remain in the EU, are being strongly debated.
Scotland’s currency is the British pound sterling but with a difference. Instead of being issued by a central bank, Scottish banknotes are issued under various laws by retail banks in Scotland of which there are currently three: Bank of Scotland, Royal Bank of Scotland, and Clydesdale Bank.
Not surprisingly on US Labor Day, I didn’t find anything very interesting after today’s trading.
Against Yen and USD, the balance is still slightly negative but we remained above both the 4H 200 SMA and Friday’s close.
Against CHF, it is still negative on Daily and 4H, but again, remained above Friday’s close.
Against GBP the Euro had a good day, but this pair is trading Brexit deals and is very vulnerable to sharp fluctuations at any time. I am not trading this one at all.
Against AUD, the Euro has already been strong for some days but maybe mainly due to recent AUD political issues and possibly prone to some consolidation/reversal from here.
Against NZD and CAD, it is looking strong and I am looking at possibly going long here but will wait until tomorrow…
This Country Spotlight idea is really amazing Manxx. I don’t know much about Scotland, but I’m sure as hell I wanna visit it now. Haha. It seems beautiful.
Well it took a while but the EURCAD did take off on the upside eventually, as hoped for
EURCAD is on the right hand side chart and gave us straight 50 pips after breaking upwards (red circled candle) and still continuing…
Also, at last, the EURUSD finally broke down through the Friday close (left hand side chart, red-ringed candle) and, again, gave us a quick drop. Unfortunately, this hasn’t held and is now retracing back upwards. It did look a bit uncertain earlier and I closed part of my position for 10 pips profit and then dumped the rest for another 17 pips profit - just before it turned tail and climbed straight back up again.
RSI’s were useful as confirmings on both trades.
Often when there is NFP at the end of the week (and this is a short week) there is a lot of erratic movement, which is tradeable on the short term but doesn’t offer much for longer term trend seekers.
I will probably be closing out the EURCAD as well today. Somewhere close to 100 pips for the day is ok. Right now I don’t have a strong view for the Euro against any of the majors but will look again in the morning.
I am curious about the EURJPY today. It was looking like it wanted to drop yesterday but has continued to refuse to hold below its 4H SMA or the Friday close. In fact, it is looking quite strong. But it has not done enough yet for me to buy it. For example, it is still below its 1H 200SMA at 129,40.
But I am putting this on the watch list because the Asian session 4H candles could change the charts to positive.
But also because of this on the daily charts going back to summer last year. There is a recurring zone of S/R that today’s price movement has possibly again bounced up from:
Interesting observation @peterma! My first thought is why would JPY be taking a cue from GBP?! Are they not in entirely different sets of fundamental influences?
Indeed, why would any currency be following the GBP at present which is in such a unique and unprecedented situation with Brexit negotiations approaching deadlines? There still seems to be no sign of agreement with the EU or with the opposition parties or even whether the parliament will accept any proposed deal if one is agreed, or even whether there should be a public referendum to accept the deal even if parliament accepts one?
I read one quote that if the government reaches a deal with the EU but then parliament rejects it then we [UK] do not know what will happen - we simply don’t know because no one has ever been in that situation before.
I will do some graphic comparisons later today and return to this - thanks for the contribution!
Interestingly, that 1H 200SMA seemed to act like a magnet and we tested in during the Asian session but so far failed to close above and fell back a bit. It is looking OK but still not enough on the longer charts for me to trade it yet (but wish I had taken that long position overnight up to that 200SMA line - but then I have to keep reminding myself that this thread is not about looking for short term trades!)
But I don’t think we could draw that same conclusion in general. At least this daily chart for the last 12 months does not seem to show much of a correlation:
Maybe they only correlate when the movement is driven by factors on the Euro side of the pair and not by the GBP or JPY factors, which, of course, can be extremely different in scope?
I just happened to see the EURGBP sliding quickly as well as the EURJPY simultaneously rising above its 200SMA (which I have been watching for) so instinctively sold and bought respectively.
I happily watched both go into green, with the EJ quickly up over 30 pips - then, like so often nowadays, they both stop, stand, and retreat. So scrapped them both for a net 12 pips profit
OK, so it is green pips again, and there was a time that I would have even been looking for this kind of intraday stuff and would have happily grabbed that 30 pips. But I am trying to move on and catch some more longer term type exposure, but we can only take what the market has to offer - and that is something we all should respect in our trading.
The EJ may well rally again but it all seems so much “back on the sidelines” - so we will wait for another setup. But overall, not a bad start to Sept, considering…
Yep, so it seems! Still it brightened up an otherwise dull day as far as trading goes - and a little more pocket money courtesy of the Euro!
EURCAD and EURJPY both seem perky but I am cautious right now of joining anything that has already moved substantially, at least ahead of NFP on Friday. As I have said before, I really don’t think that the NFP deserves the hype that it carries anymore in today’s modern age of iterative interest rate adjustments and fine-tuning economies. Even if the actual figures differ from those predicted what does it really signify in terms of Central Bank activity - perhaps a small move later or sooner than previously expected? Not much more I think? But it has a long tradition of creating big moves and old habits die hard - especially when the fires are stoked by brokers and market commentators!
But the EURJPY, it is hauntingly seductive right now, will it continue up towards the top of that recent range…we’ll see
Hey guys.
Well, I got to tell someone. So here goes.
I’m watching my EUR/CAD trade this morning. Have 4 small lots on it (kept adding positions as it was moving up). For as much as I hate watching trades…for some reason I kept my eye on it. Oh, I remember, the CAD interest rate news was going to be coming out in another hour. I wanted to see it.
Well, right before my eyes, it jumped up like out of control! Man, talk about being relieved (cause I’m going north). Well, all I kept saying to myself, the whole time it was going up, was, “Take profit Mike, take profit Mike. I don’t care about CAD’s news anymore.”
And so, I did. Just took my money and ran. 2% just like that.
Talk about being at the right place at the right time.
- and I have changed the thread title accordingly! 
I don’t know much about Scotland, but I’m sure as hell I wanna visit it now. Haha. 
- but then I have to keep reminding myself that this thread is not about looking for short term trades!)
