Current Linear Regression Channel on 15min and 30min charts are showing bullish momentum. However, Regression bands are showing mixed signals. If regression band on 30min chart turns bullish by next US session on Thursday, EURUSD should be bullish on Friday, otherwise EURUSD continues to be choppy.
A Trader’s Dilemma
Yesterday’s Fed action and comments did not deviate unduly from expectations and the USD value accordingly remained virtually unchanged from last week’s close. Here’s this week’s 1H Dollar Index. The only reaction it creates in me is a big yawn and a suspicion that trading is boring afterall 
:
But one cannot help wondering, when one looks at the current major news issues, whether the Fed comments and actions would really have had any greater impact even if they were unexpected!
This week’s UN General Assembly meeting pointed the spotlight on a wide range of huge issues currently sweeping the globe, all of which potentially have a decisive impact on the direction of trade growth and economic performance in all the major economic areas on our globe.
But even more significant, the current meltdown in global relationships and the objectives of the world’s major powers, the US, China, Russia, the EU, and the Middle East, is creating huge shifts in the balance of power between these different regions.
Internally, the US is currently struggling with serious and enormous domestic issues covering immigration, gun laws, racism, environmental issues, foreign interference in US politics, US political collusion with other foreign powers and now the “#MeToo” movement and women’s rights and equality in society, including abortion issues.
Externally, the US is concerned with correcting apparent imbalances on a global scale across a whole range of issues including terms of trade, fair trading practices, energy prices, US contributions to NATO and other global organisations, environmental control, global stability and the war on terrorism, and indeed even on the prospects of global nuclear war via North Korea and Iran.
At the same time, the EU is fighting its own internal battles with Brexit and its impact of trade and future EU funding, how to create an “invisible” EU/UK border that cuts right through the geography, economy and hearts of the people on the island of Ireland. Immigration is a major problem and a cause of division between the main countries of the EU and the newer “eastern block”. Diverging political leanings are creating weak minority governments.
The EU is also struggling with external issues such as how to deal with the aggressiveness and demands from the current US administration. The question of compliance or not with US sanctions against Iran is pushing Europe away from its traditional alliance towards a closer relationship with Russia and China and also promoting interests in creating an alternative global trading currency in order to dilute the influence of the US on other countries’ decisions.
China is now a major economic and political power on the global stage. It has several major advantages over the western democracies. It has a huge domestic market that, in itself, self-propels growth and creates a certain degree of immunity to sanctions. In addition, China does not have the shackles on its political and economic actions that hinder the western democracies whereby the general public has a voice that a government cannot just ignore. Western governments are short-lived and their actions are necessarily aimed at maintaining public support and short-term popular benefits. Both China and Russia have much longer term ambitions.
The African continent is rich is vast quantities of natural resources. It is also the region where major powers are concerned with growing their influence. This is one of those long-term ambitions.
The Middle East is a melting pot of wealth, religion and power. Both the US and Russia are openly involved in protecting and increasing their interests there.
Trade protectionism, defence spending, political influence and control, domestic problems…
…where does all this leave the poor little individual retail forex trader?
For over a year now I have tried to migrate to longer term position trading. But these issues tell me that if one cannot form a reliable long-term view on the direction of the world powers then one certainly cannot take a long-term view on the future of currencies. However, the effect of this is that any such position would have to be small to absorb the heightened risks of major turns - so is it even worth the risk? And here we have the trader’s dilemma:
Which is more reliable, safer, and more profitable in today’s world: 100 pips from one lot over a period of days or more - or 10 pips from 10 lots in a few hours or less?
Last night, towards the close, I sold EU with a view to seeing it move lower during today. It happened to immediately drop 10 pips - I took it and went to sleep flat. This morning it was again higher.
This week i also gained about 180 pips from the GBPJPY SW “top trade”. But it was in four separate chunks! If I had stayed with the original intended long term view I would have see it rise and collapse and attempt to rise again with nothing gained other than a lot of stressful monitoring and doubt.
Is the future of retail trading in the short term or does position trading still have an edge? That is my dilemma…
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Everything in today’s world is taking place at a much faster pace than ever before. How ever fast it may be, there will be a limit. Just like a child take 10 years to reach puberty, 20 years to reach adulthood, 40 years to reach middle age, 60 years to reach seniors golden age.
I believe there will be more opportunity for intraday scalper. Since, there are more noise to keep momentum traders entertained. Nevertheless, position trading will not cease to exist. It is just changing times, with edge more evenly distributed between the priviledged and more humble birthright individuals.
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Indeed, the world is forever moving on, and the pace of change is accelerating all the time, but…
From a trading perspective (e.g. long term v. short term), there is a significantly relevant issue of whether this change is a rational, evolutionary process or a disruptive, confusing, disjointed series of major jolts to the generally accepted trends in world developments and the frameworks within which it functions!
We live in interesting but uncertain times! 
The same thing what I have been observing / thinking since few months and particularly during the month of September 2018.
It looks that the Big Players (Smart Money) have modified their trading strategies to outperform those traders whose trading decisions are based on any Sw Currency or Heatmap analysis.
We may observe frequent usage of stop hunt techniques and an abrupt price movement during any crucial event announcement. And it is so surprising to watch that the market first dramatically reacts against the event result (no matter whether the result is over expected or vice versa). And after hunting the major SLs, it starting to travel in the different direction for hunting the other side of the traders’ positions. And then it comes to or near to the same price from where the “Game of Death/Hunting” was actually initiated/started.
I have recently read an article in an online News Journal that either the Goldman Sachs or Merry Lynch (not sure about the name) is planning to appoint those traders having expertise on EA based trading module.
I have tried Day, Swing or Medium to Long term trading techniques with the appropriate stoploss (small to large SL) as per the trading techniques during the current month, but these were badly hit, most of the times, during the London or USA sessions.
So my question is as @anon46773462 said “what is the future of retail traders e.g, Scalping, Day/Swing or Long term trading in the current scenario”.
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We often hear the claim that the big players in the market drive the price in certain directions and to certain levels in order to hunt the stops of the retail traders. But there is an issue in that claim that I find difficult to understand.
If, say, the big players were to sell the market down with the intention of hitting the stops of the retail longs, who would actually benefit from this?
I think it has been well-established that the vast majority of small retail trades are retained in-house by the brokers and don’t even reach the real interbank market. In all these cases, then, who actually benefits? Seems to me it is only the brokers - whose gains would be at least partially offset by clients with positions in the other direction.
There is a portion of retail trades that does go “straight through”, but is this a sufficiently large target to attract big players, especially, where there is no specification as to which counterparty the activated stop losses would be matched to?
Personally, I think stop loss hunting, if it even exists, is more to do with manipulation of spreads by brokers as the market approaches areas visibly rich in stop orders?
But I think these issues are more the concern of short term traders with close stops and target levels. As other longer term position traders have commented, their exits are more likely to be caused by a change in their technical analysis than stops because these stop levels tend to be much further away from the current price levels.
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Yesterday we were looking at this trendline on the daily chart:
We have now seen a breach to the downside, which was already “on the cards” towards the close last night:
Let’s see how far it takes us…
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Hey M, dead cat bounce right now, on the small fractal, but daily, still ranging, so a long term position here might not be a great idea.
Also the concepts of “Smart” money, “stop Hunts” on retail, “your broker is hunting your stops”, etc, are concepts that have been promulgated by I Can’t Trade, and his sycophants and fanboys, these are not real, and a fantasy that unsuccessful trader blame their losses on.
The Ever Dealing With Reality VIPER
So there you have it, folks! End of a few myths, I hope! 
Yep, and now the last two days of a good month, and I’m just taking those chunks. One last night, 2 more today. I think I am done for today. Tomorrow sees the EU CPI - could be good for another chunk, albeit a little one…
I am looking at the 4H chart and that grey band that we just bounced up from…if we break that then I might get interested in a proper down move…at least as far as that 200SMA around 1.1600
Also, just out of interest, those long wicks on the upside in that red circle and a failure to close over 1.1800 were pretty good premonitions of a fall…
Hey M, but watching the 13 min and 3 min fractal, seeing the dead cat bounce then watch the 3 min Sto for a cross down, doesn’t have to be at 80. then see what happens.
The Ever Fractal VIPER
Ok so I lied! 
I couldn’t resist it. It was so obvious on the 15m chart - another 20 pips…
…now waiting to see if we break that zone…
Yes M, I had it at the stoch cross 1687 3min at bar open but yep, 20 , and done
The Ever Multi Fractal VIPER
OK to the Robot Elders this is the thingie, make it go away please.
Consider replying to more people
You’ve already replied 3 times to @anon46773462 in this particular topic.
Have you considered replying to other people in the discussion, too? A great discussion involves many voices and perspectives.
If you’d like to continue your conversation with this particular user at length, send them a personal message.
The Hey I’m Not In Jr High VIPER
Oh, ok, errr, I’d better try and pressgang some slaves into this thread against their will so’s you can reply some more! 
I am not familiar with your fractal stochs methods. Have you explained these somewhere?
Hey M, I frankly don’t care about many voices, I know someone who hears many voices all of the time, and it’s not working out so well for them. 
Anyway, it’s just part of a traditional trading model that has been updated and tweaked for spot currency, you make money on the first leg down on like a 13 min, then wait for the Dead Cat, on the 3 min, when the cat drops again, and the stochastic crosses, you enter at the bar close of the cross. The one thing I can tell you, if the stoch goes above 80, after the bounce, on the 3 min it usually means the move is done. The Mo has shifted to green.
The Ever Elucidating VIPER
Ahaa! Yes i found some info on deceased felines on internet, such as:
“The name “dead cat bounce” is based on the notion that even a dead cat will bounce if it falls far enough and fast enough.”
Very descriptive and accurate - and a useful application to market behaviour!
Kind of reminds of those Ross hooks?
Update on this EURUSD move.
As mentioned previously, at the end of the month I don’t personally take big risks and just look for additional green pips wherever it seems sensible and highly probable. Last night I took one last small trade while watching TV with my laptop alongside and left another short overnight looking for another small drop. These together netted another 17 pips. I am currently flat - out of everything.
This morning I am looking at the 1H chart and we have some heavy levels below around the 1.1618 - 1.1610 area comprising the first major Fib retracement (.382) of the latest daily upmove and the 4H 200-period SMA. Whilst this is maybe a tough support level, these two levels are both so popular that it is almost has a magnetic attraction towards it.
Right now the price is at 1.1650 and it is a question of whether it is worth the risk:reward to short it here, looking for a test of this area just below.
Personally, I would look for an upward drift during the London session, perhaps into the 1.1860-70 area and then go short with a stop above the daily pivot which is around 1.1880. Any higher than that and we might see an upward drift into the close. But if we rise into this region later during the NY session then I would not short it at all.
In the other direction, if we break those supports, then we will probably see a weak close today.
Let’s not forget that today’s close is quite significant being the close for the day, and the week, and the month!!!
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…on the other hand, it might just drop straight down and done with!!!
Well that was that!!! At least the direction and target were ok - but no more pips for me on that one!
…Now all that is left is whether it breaks through this area or holds!
First frosts this morning:
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Hey M, we are targeting the 1 hr fractal this morning, with 13 min entry, expected entry point, 1610, short, which is right under 30 MA. stop will be technical, TP 1550, so we shall see.
9:10 move entry to 1650 overshoot
The Ever Looking Around VIPER
