My EURUSD and other things

I closed out the balance of my short position when we crossed over the intraday 200SMA for a 25 pip gain.

A bit disappointing that we didn’t have the flow to break lower into that support area but a gain is a gain! :slight_smile:

Since then we have gone on to rise to the daily pivot. I am waiting now to see what the US does with this afternoon. I am currently flat.

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Hmmmm, a rather frustrating day! I was happy to see price rise precisely to the daily pivot as anticipated - again suggesting we are trading mainly on technicals nowadays. But since then we have just drifted off without any real conviction and that always makes me jumpy and nervous about holding anything very long - always expecting the market to suddenly spring back up at any moment - which it did at one point…

So it has ended up as a ragged series of in/outs which shows best (or worst!!) on the 5min chart. I had to go out to a meeting for a few hours tonight and I was too cautious with this market to leave a short unattended so I have missed this last leg down :frowning:

But never mind, it still adds up to 40+ green pips on the day and, considering we opened at 1.14998 and we are now only at 1,14600, 40 pips lower, I am happy with that. It is just not pretty to trade like this, it is just not my thing. :frowning: …and we are still within last weeks small range here!!!

But this is all boring stuff and no value to anyone else so I think it is better that I cease posting this personal stuff here.

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Not just Weekly range, Yearly range are getting smaller as well, and i’m slightly worried.
:expressionless:

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I don’t think it is really very surprising given the state of turbulence and uncertainty in the global trading environment at present. I was reading an article this morning about a rapid growth in a corporate practice called “tariff engineering”!

This practice is concerned with designing products with a view to getting around import duties by classifying them as something else. for example including textiles into the soles of athletic shoes in order to classify them as “bedroom slippers”,

If that is the direction global trade is going in then there are big problems ahead!

It also doesn’t help when the US President argues that the Federal Reserve is wrong with its current policies of tightening interest rates. How can any long term fund build sensible investment strategies when they cannot say where growth will be, which industries and sectors will produce the best returns and where are interest rates and exchange rates going.

When uncertainty prevails we are left with smaller moves and taking larger positions to make it worth the effort…

But it does sharpen one’s attention and reflexes! :smile:

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a

I’m seriously getting burnout from trading. :expressionless:

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It’s a minefield, one which many importers/exporters in the UK are now entering for the first time.

To get a sense imagine a specific product, just at random a camera, you want to export it - then you must classify it for customs:

https://www.trade-tariff.service.gov.uk/trade-tariff/sections

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@peterma - interesting - and one might say “excessive” perhaps! - That sounds as though there is likely to be a whole new Admin specialisation and people with the knowledge and ability to take a “lateral thinking” approach may well find themselves in high demand, as implied in @anon46773462 post ! :neutral_face:

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Aye, in the olden days before EU there was a thriving industry of “Customs Clearance Agents” who dutifully filled in all the many forms.

Eagle eyed customs officers were expert in finding a word misspelt and back the lorry driver had to go - no tippex allowed.

Watched a live movement of pharma products going to Switzerland last week.

Took 1.5 hrs to get through the Swiss customs, then along comes a Swiss Traffic official with a huge ruler - wouldn’t allow the lorry in because it was x cm’s too high.

Edit: reasonable chance some lateral thinking applied early next morning - the lorry got thru ok.

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…put the air back into the tyres on the other side…….? :slight_smile:

I also liked this one for its creative thinking;

" When anti-dumping tariffs on candles from China were introduced in the 1980s, importers started bringing in wickless wax cylinders with holes drilled into the middle instead, for wicks to be added at a later date.
By importing them as “wax, moulded or carved articles” instead of “candles”, they could legally avoid a 108% anti-dumping tariff………"

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Lol - not my words - the huge ruler could not lie, “welcome to Ireland” muttered the driver. :slight_smile:

Been an interesting 2 days this week for the EURUSD.

Yesterday saw a good sell signal after the earlier failure off the 1H 200- SMA.

As is my policy with trading at present (which seems to be echoed by @Dennis3450 too), took 35 pips off half the position yesterday and was intending to leave the other half with a stop loss at B/E but almost immeidately changed my mind and closed the rest for another 40+ pips this morning…and sure enough a few hours later we are all over the place going nowhere….

Now I am sidelined and just waiting for the next signal……….

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Very nice trade @anon46773462.

Thanks! :slight_smile:

It was actually an interesting example of not acting too early on a Monday morning - it often seems to be a contrarian time, as seen on this 30 min chart ( you may note I have change the livery colours of my charts!! I do that every now and again when I’m sitting bored with no positions open!! :joy: :rofl: )

2018

It is also notable that we are in the fourth week of more or less the same range with EURUSD!!! :grimacing:

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Its that time of year again - back to winter studded tyres for another 6 months………. :cloud_with_snow:

But on another note: Whenever one takes a quick browse through recent posts here it is still clear that people pay far more attention to just their chart content and each individual trade rather than their risk/equity management. The only chart that should always be in an uptrend is your profit……….or as Babypips puts it:

I just received another email newsletter from Nial Fuller which starts with just this issue:

“What good is it to be a skilled and accurate chart technician if you have lost all your risk capital along the way? You see, in the early days of your trading career, it’s not enough to just be focused on learning to trade, you also must be focused on preserving and (ideally) slowly building your bankroll (money in your account) so that as you progress and learn you have sufficient funds to properly take advantage of your trading abilities in the future.”

If it interests then this is the article:

http://www.learntotradethemarket.com/forex-articles/why-protect-trading-account-balance

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EURUSD continues to be vulnerable on the downside and is now pushing those recent lower limits……

Nice London trade this morning…and contrary to most negative comments about brokers, it was nice to see a 2 pip positive slippage on this one (actually happens fairly frequently :slight_smile: ). My limit was at 50 pips.

I haven’t really had time to look into the sentiment here (apart from the general concerns over the Italian budget) but will try later to add some layman reasoning to the lines. :smiley:

The EURUSD can really be boring sometimes!

Are we concerned about Italy’s budget? Are we concerned about Brexit? Are we concerned about trade wars?

Is that “who knows?” or is it “who cares”?

But in the meantime the world just keeps on turning and the seasons just go on changing - summer- autumn - winter…the first snows…

and one’s thoughts slowly change from memories of a hot, dry summer to anticipation of a crisp, white winter…

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Perhaps it would be interested to you @anon46773462.

Thank you, @anon58863749 :slight_smile:

He speaks a very different “language” to me when describing technicals and he is clearly a million miles brighter than I about these things. But that still does not change the fact that the EURUSD has been since mid-May, well, what should we say, maybe flattish?

Although, don’t get me wrong, that is a WIDE range and plenty of room to trade in it, but a bit tedious pumping the same old pips all the time. I think I need a change of scenery! :slight_smile:

But I was a bit mystified by his comment on the overnight 5 min chart (for 24.10?):

“The EUR/USD 5-minute Forex chart sold off 100 pips overnight.”

My 5min chart looks rather like the above daily chart but with more like a 15-20 pip range?

Wow! caught that one just in time!

Just took 30+ pips off half position and moved my stop to B/E plus a few pips. (5 min chart on right hand side)

The left hand side chart is the EURUSD weekly and I am interested in that 200 period SMA at 1.1310 (ish). We don’t often touch the weekly 200SMA so I am running this other half position with stop at B/E and target at 1.1320. :slight_smile:

Well I screwed that ambition up! :persevere:

i don’t know why, perhaps it was greed, but more likely a nagging uncertainty due to slow price movements, but I lowered my profit stop from B/E + a few pips to around +30pips overnight (more or less where I had closed out the first half position)…and of course got stopped out there…

Ok, it was a nice profit but I lost my intended trade! I could get back in here but it is not the same, starting from here with a zero profit. It would not meet my normal entry criteria anyway so I will just have to wait for the next bus to come along…

Another example of how trade exits can have far more impact on our overall trading results than our entry decisions. I could have closed it yesterday with 20 pips more profit and was sorely tempted to do so, but decided to keep to the original plan and aim for that weekly 200SMA instead - but the plan has now gone along with 20 pips less profit than could have been…but this is what short-term trading is all about! :grin:

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