Thanks mike for the sharing…i just read through ur post and i’ve experienced all of those. The different is that i am so eager to go live. So i only trade my demo for couple of days. And as expected I lost some money too in the process of learning. You can say that I like the hard way. It is easy for me to learn by experience and to train my phycological minds in trading. Yes…indeed…our emotions is the main key facto that contribute to succesd and failure.
Looking forwad on your jouney…
Good Morning Journal.
Man…I slept in Journal. I’m sorry. I just don’t know what happened. You know, sometimes I just don’t hear the alarm. Well, I guess my body needed it. I’m just one who always wants to be productive. So…I don’t know…I’m just bummed. The sun is up and everything. Maybe it’s because I had to work yesterday (once a month Sat.). But, I did wake up before work at the normal time and worked some. Man, it was a tough day at work also. Boy…I tell ya…working that hard, at my day job, keeps me alive. Sometimes I wonder how I can continue doing it. But, am always, always, thankful that I can. And so here we are, my time with you Journal. I’m sorry it’ll be limited. So, I’ll try to get the most important parts of my business.
Well, what’s more important than my open trades, huh? Yeah, I have 3 going. Remember? My long time running GBP/JPY. And the EUR/JPY, CHF/JPY. Here they are.
Well, let’s talk about the Pound one, in the middle. That has been one of my best trades so far. In fact, it looks like I might have gone through all 3 stages. I got in where I wanted to. The first stage was successful. The second stage is staying in the whole ride down. And I did, but I was not so successful in adding position sizing. Let me refresh your memory. Look at the 7th candle from the right, the real big red candle. Well, that was the election results for the UK on that Thursday. I was in a second position leading up to that candle. But I remember pondering at the time of my ‘one look a day’. That was just before the results. Boy, it could’ve resulted differently. Ok, so, in hindsight, yeah, I lost out with the added position, but I was still in the trade from the beginning, so it wasn’t a total failure in regards to stage 2. And if you look closely, there’s no stop losses. I took them out of all 3 trades. (I’ll talk about that shortly) So now, here I am, and I think it’s time to exit this trade, being stage 3, the exit. The yellow line is moving up close to the green line, signaling the end of this trend. Surely it can be otherwise, but look, the trend has been riding out very nicely for some time now. It was a good ride and now I’m getting off. I just hope there won’t be a big gap before the open.
Now for the other 2. I don’t know, what can I do, the trend just doesn’t take. The yellow line just does not want to go down. One thing I did that was balsy was to take out the stop loss. I did that on Thursday night, just before that last candle started. The reason being is, price moves much more faster than both the yellow and green lines. And at the time (second candle from the right) I don’t know where price is really going. And at the present time the yellow line is below the green. This all has to do with whether the trend is going to start or not, which is my stage 1. And the other thing going through my head was my daily end price principle. How much do I trust that principle? Well, enough to take out my stops. And that’s what I did. Look at the right (CHF/JPY). Now that’s success! At least I can feel good about that one. I believe in waiting for and counting on where price ends up at the end of the day. You must remember how many times I have gotten stopped out, and then for price to spring on back to me. Well, I finally got it on this one. All I’m saying is that I should put more weight on end of day price than a stop loss. Ok. So what about the EUR/JPY ? I took out the stop loss there also, but it didn’t come all the way back down. Ok, so, that’s my cost. And I think that might be telling me that it wants to go up more. I’ll accept that. And the other thing with that trade there is I really got in late with it. See where I got in at? The white line. That’s way lower than where the green line is. So, yeah, it hurts. I mean, relatively speaking. I mean, I can’t see my broker now, but I think it’s like only less than $10 worth.
Bottom line here is, I’m jumping out. The Yen is done trending high.
But boy, since I’ve been keeping track, guess what’s been going on in the field? Interesting stuff!!
Look at my table.
Well, all I’m doing here, on the daily time frame, is working from right to left. Every once a day look, I just count up how many trending highs (according to my 8,21 ema method) each currency has, and tally them all from the strongest down to the weakest. And look at what has happened!! Journal, do you remember me asking you what’s going to happen to both the AUD, and the NZD? Like who’s leading who? Well, now we know. It’s clear. And to boot…look who’s joining them! The CAD! Well, well, well…Where did all the Comm’s come from? I guess the NZD has been the leader all along. Look…I don’t know how long this will last, but you have to think, is the AUD just getting started? And I’ve been noticing the CAD for some time now. There was one day that they just rocked the market, (only a few days ago) and their off and running now.
I should show you.
Ok, I’ve found the day. It was Monday of this past week. Count 5 candles from the end, against everyone. Every single candle was CAD strong. On the daily time frame here, they are trending high against everyone, except the NZD. But is presently chopping that trend down (bottom, second from the left).
Man…I just bet that every trader out there gets confronted with this con drum. It’s the ole ‘hindsight’ dilemma. How can we see something coming…and yet…not realize it…until it passes us by.
I’ve seen the NZD take off. Watched them, day by day, get stronger and stronger. And the same with the CAD. And now…we see the AUD coming up strong…are they next? Probably.
Look, you know that I’ve been concentrating on the JPY, only (with my trading) . I’m just wondering when is the right time for me to branch out and concentrate on the field as a whole. On the one hand, I don’t want to get too spread out and not be proficient at my strategy. But, on the other hand, I don’t think there will ever come a day when I’ll be able to trade with 100% accomplishment, every time I put on a trade, either.
I guess I need to be looking at my results much more closely.
But…you know what? This always gets me. **There are always big trends taking place in the market **. And one of these days I want to be apart of them, whoever they are. This takes me back to MasterGunners method. One of these days I’ll get there. I must be patient with the process though.
Ok Journal. Got to run.
We’ll be in touch.
Mike
Good Morning Journal.
So, let’s see. If we’re gonna talk about my trading…then there’s not very much to talk about. I jumped on the onset of the open last week. This is definitely the time period that is not conducive for my trades. I haven’t been in since. But, I keep track of what’s going on. And it’s always interesting. As I have noted last week, the Comms have taken control. And this continues. Sure enough, the Yen has just faded away. That puts me out. Ok, so, am I still making progress? See, that question will always be the most fundamental, most important thing to me, about my business. At first, you kind of think, and it looks like, I’m not going anywhere. Yeah, I’m saving some money, and it’s not being taken away by some bad trades. I am following my strategy plan, which keeps me on the sidelines, that’s all. But, other than that, I still get up early and am working on something, at least.
I’ve thought a lot about this. ‘What exactly am I doing, on furthering my business?’. I mean, I have the strategy in place. I’m a swing trader. Therefore my trades take days and weeks to play out. And then the results.
Man…talk about taking a long time…Yep…it sure is.
But, this is what I’ve been doing. I have figured it out. I’m constantly working on my structure. Strengthening it, reviewing it, monitoring it…well, even building it. See, I believe I have learned how to properly build my trading business. Remember the classes that I paid for? Well sure! I do believe that I have been given all of the tools, methods, & framework for it. There was so much though that I couldn’t put it all together in that amount of time that I had then. Well, now is the time to put all of the pieces together. I just wanted to get my strategy all set up and operating first. Yeah, that took some time to do, as you know. But anyway, I’ve been working on my business structure. I have been telling you Journal that I’ve been working on this stuff, and that someday I’ll show you the specifics. I’m getting closer to that, don’t worry Journal.
Man…check this out Journal. One day last week, me and Trish were dining out. And I got a phone call. Guess who it was? You won’t believe it. It was Terry! I was like…stunned…scared…shocked…afraid…
He was like, ‘Hey Mike! It’s Terry.’ Man, it was like Judgement Day had arrived. It was time to atone for all my sins. I mean, I’m talking to the Godfather of trading. The All Knowing One. (I just esteem him to the highest degree.) He was like, ‘So Mike, are you still trading?’. I said ‘yes of course’. He asked how’s my demo trading going. All I said was it was going good. There was a good bit of silence. I was just caught off guard, and couldn’t fill in the empty time with anything. Actually, I didn’t want to talk to him. I mean, where do I begin? What can I say? I haven’t kept in touch. I’m not apart of the team anymore. I’m off doing what I think I should be doing. I just kind of disconnected from them. So he says, ‘Well Mike, I’ve been thinking about you lately. And I’ve been wondering if you would join us in another Core Trader Skills class. As my guest.’ That’s the 3 week course that I took back in Nov. And all I could say was, 'Uhhhhh…well…uhhhhhh…ok…" He says that he really wants me to be there with them. He wants my input into the class. This will start up in a week from now. So, then, that was that. It was a quick call. I got off the phone and Trish was like, ‘you ok?’. And then I told her. I was like in a catatonic state. I don’t know what just happened. So then I started to think about how this is going to affect my working schedule. It’s not pretty. Man, I remember the anguish I went through back in November. Even though it was only like an hour before my regular quitting time, it’s still like pulling teeth. I just cannot be leaving my workplace like that. The job is pretty demanding. Plus I’ve been having to stay late most days, to get all the work done. Tuesdays and Fridays, cutting out an hour early, believe it or not, is not easily done. Plus I’d be sacrificing a lot of money also. Well, after thinking about it, I decided to not attend the class. I emailed him, early morning, the day of. I just told him I’m sorry, but I can’t. It’s too much of a conflict to my day time job. I do feel bad. Oh, you know, I did say to him on the phone that I haven’t forgotten about him. So…hopefully he got that. I know that someday we will hook up again. Well, if he doesn’t die away that is, cause he’s pretty dog-gone old. Well, we’ll see what happens.
Let’s see, what else was I wanting to tell you about. Oh, guess what? I bought another book. Yeah, it came on Thursday. And I’ve been reading it a lot since. Very good book. “The Undoing Project”, by Michael Lewis. I forget how I came across it, but boy am I glad I found it. It’s kind of different. In fact, I honestly don’t know where it’s going, or even if it’s a trading book either. But, in any case, it is telling a story about one author that I highly esteem. So far in about 3 chapters the author is giving a biography of 3 different people. One of them is Daniel Kahneman. Well, that guy is a genius. I have one of his books, and that one book has made the biggest impression on me of all the books that I’ve bought. “Thinking, Fast and Slow”. Well, now I know where he came from and how he grew up. Talk about growing up in bad times. Nothing is worse than being a Jew in the middle of the Holocaust, in World War II. That was him. His story is something else. But anyway, he’s a psychologist. And in my opinion an absolute genius. So, we’ll see where this book goes. So far, it’s the biographies of certain guys. Story telling. History telling. And very interesting.
So Journal, honestly, that’s what I’ve been doing lately. Nothing but reading this book. You know I’ve been wanting to get back into reading. And now is the time. It’s been fun.
Well, off I go. To read.
Mike
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Good Morning Journal!
Here I am. I’m finally back. Yeah boy…I’ve been busy. Well, as you know, I come visit you on the weekends. But last weekend, impossible. It was a family function. I took a trip down to Florida for some days. It was a gathering of the brothers and our Dad. The 5 of us. It was a nice healthy reunion, because it’s been some time since. Needless to say, I wasn’t able to fit any kind of work in, let alone my weekend ritual of journalizing. Believe me, I always love taking advantage of the opportunity to work on my business during vacation time. That’s rising up early, and accomplishing much. But…not this time. I had to abide by different rules. Mostly, staying up very, very late. My alarm clock would be going off, and we were still up. So, it was like that the whole time, every single day. I’m not a night person, I’m definitely a morning person. Oh well, nothing I can do. And now, finally, getting back to normalcy. Last day upon me now, before I go back to the normal normal. I finally managed to arise early (2:30) . So, it’s only me, you, and coffee right now. I’ve been wanting to review myself, the business, and my on-going focus.
Where am I at?
(This is already at the forefront of my mind, given the fact that I have articulated this stuff as of late.)
I am incomplete.
I am on a mission, to fulfill myself.
I will not rest until I have uncovered what I want to be in life. In other words, this is exactly what I think I was born to do, and become.
I am a trader. I am a business owner.
I cannot wait to see how good of a trader I will be. Smart. Cunning. Patient. Endowed with a real traders mindset.
Becoming a successful, fully independent, business owner. Managing a very lot of money, with the calmness of a kitten, and the fierceness of a tiger. In total and complete control.
This is what I want to be. This is who I am. But, at the present, I’m still a caterpillar. Working on the transformation.
And guess what…it just takes a long time.
So be it.
Yeah…that’s nice…
Where we at? Big picture and move on in.
- Monthly goal. Honestly I didn’t have time, at the end of the month, to add some dollars to the account to make it simply higher. I am only short about $20 max. I will this week.
- Well, trading wise, I’ve been on the sidelines. The JPY has been the weakest currency. No trending high there. No trades.
- Been trying to work on my structure. I have ideas of strengthening and putting into place some core trading values. For instance, I’ve been trying to solidify my ‘decision making process’ mind map, in order to utilize that as a working tool. I just want the stuff that I have learned to be put into practice. (Man…that sentence is so funny to me, because of what I want to write next). Also I plan on revisiting my ‘Learning’ & ‘Practicing’ mind maps. Again, I’ve been thinking about these tools, and have been wanting to incorporate them in such a practical application. For instance, when I ‘think’ about the important aspects of my business, I should be thinking in the best way, in which will be explained in my ‘thinking’ mind map. Same goes for ‘learning’. I want to truly learn the things that I need to learn. I need to figure out the absolute best way for me to actually learn, and how to learn, what I need to. Also ‘Information Processing’ is another aspect of myself that I need to better myself at. So, I view all this as building up my structure. I want these important things in place. It’s kind of like making the soil rich beforehand. Only then can I grow some real good stuff.
- Was reading that awesome book. Talk about genius’s. Daniel and Amos are monsters when it comes to figuring out how humans decide things. Awesome insights into our minds.
One thing, before I forget. I do want to open up another mind map. I think this is one that I need to keep before me. I got this idea from my one brother, who is such the intellect. Ok, more accurately the philosopher, scientist, engineer (by trade), & theological student that he is. Of our many talks together, he was very much interested in what the ‘mind of a trader’ is like. I gave him as much as I could about that. You know, things like how to be a totally objective, non emotional, probability seeking robot (person). It is interesting stuff. Being an emotional human, and a trader are 2 totally different people. And he was wondering and asking if there were any emotions to be desired as a trader. Just as we, as humans, have emotions, as gifts for other people, is there any emotion conducive, helpful, for a trader? You know, to become a more well rounded person or trader. Well, all I could come up with was that it seems to me that emotions are for people, not for business (the market). And I think the word love was even mentioned. Is there any room for the emotion of love in the market? In any case, my point here before I forget, I want to draw up a mind map. Titled ‘The Traders Mind’. I think I might have learned some of this during the classes that I took. But I would like to collect all of the attributes in one place, find my strengths, weaknesses, and simply just become that. Oh and how about another mind map in which will spell out being human. Hmm. Nah. Ok. Maybe an ideal human, to an ideal trader. Anyway, that’s all nice and good. I just want to have a clear focus of the ideal traders mind.
Ok Journal. Believe it or not, this took a long time to write. Much thinking has gone into it.
So, time to skoot.
Mike
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Good Morning Journal!
Well, I finally have some good stuff to talk to you about. Yep, I’m talking about some trading. So, let me set it up for you.
You should know by now Journal that I haven’t been in the market for quite many days now. And we all know why, because the dog-gone Japanese Yen has been the worst currency for a long time now. That just leaves me on the sidelines. Sure, it bothers me, and during this whole time I start questioning whether I’m making any progress in my business. Day by day, week by week, all I’ve been seeing is my life pass me by.
All I’m doing here is getting old, not trading. * Will I ever be put back into the game coach! *
That’s been my sentiment lately.
But…
This week happened. And I must explain. Cause I’m a bad boy, or …I’m a genius.
Look Journal, I’m not saying, and it’s just not true, that I always look at the market. Anticipating when to get in is not what I’m doing. I’ve definitely have grown up and out of those premature feelings that you get in the beginning. You just want to be part of the action in the market. I remember. But, with everything that is true within me, I can say that I have and am sticking to my game plan. What’s that again? Simply waiting on the JPY. To get strong. And even more specifically, waiting for my 2 EMA lines to start crossing, for me to get in. But, I must explain what happened this week. At my work.
I forget what day it was, something like around the middle of the week, I took a look at the market. See, there are many times in a day, at my workplace, that I have to go up to the parts department counter, and ask for some parts. Whether it be just an oil filter, front brake pads, or something bigger, sometimes I’ll have to wait there at the counter if the guys behind there are busy. So, I’ll be leaning there, and just pull out my phone and see if anything is happening in the market. A common occurrence, no big deal. And most of the time I only get a few seconds anyway. But sometimes a few minutes also.
Well, that scenario took place this week. I forget exactly what I was looking at, but something just grabbed my attention in a big way. And I’m standing there, saying out loud, ‘you know what…I think I need to get into the market right now’. Then, of course, the other side of my mind is yelling at me like, ‘are you kidding me? You don’t trade this way! Those days are long gone. You have a plan to follow now. You just don’t trade on the fly like this. First off, we need end of day price to come, etc…etc…’ But, I have to tell ya, this went deep. As I look back on that moment, the only thing that explains it was the trader in me seen a major opportunity. With all things considering, (the JPY being sold off forever, the USD losing it’s grip, and some USD economic indicator figures dropped majorly ) I pulled the trigger. I must have been looking at the USD/JPY. I couldn’t believe myself. I just do not trade like this. On one hand, I was feeling ugly, impatient, greedy, (newbie ish) . But, on the other, this was something I just had to do. I didn’t care. I needed to get in at the top of the turn.
And I’m going south. Of course, at the time, I rationalized it off by knowing that I went in with only a .01 position size. That’s 10 cents a pip. But, in any case, I’m trying to guard myself against thinking that this will become the way I trade. I know how things can escalate and then get out of hand. But I simply do not like to trade this way! I AM more patient than that!
I even said out loud that I can’t believe I’m in a trade now. So…let’s just see what happens.
Well, the way it turns out was, in hindsight, WAS a turn. I think it was on Friday that I definitely got the confirmation. What big red candles have been painted!! And somewhere along the line I have gotten in with another Yen pair. Not only that, I added some position sizing with the 2 pairs that I’m in with. So, I have 2 trades running to date. The USD/JPY and CHF/JPY. Let me show you here, and let’s talk about it.
These are all the Yen pairs. I’m in the top left one and the top right one, (USD/JPY and CHF/JPY). I got in at the dotted white lines. Ok…So…now you see…I’m gonna say it…I AM A GENIUS!
So, let’s dissect the charts. First things first. The JPY has not trended high for some time now due to my trend indicator, which is the relationship of 3 things, price, 8 EMA line (yellow), and the 21 EMA line (green). When the yellow line is above the green line, that means the other currency is trending higher. When the yellow line gets below the green line, then that means the JPY is trending higher. And of course PRICE is what moves the fastest and first. You can see on the whole top row how we are starting to see the yellow line moving down closer to the green line. Of course what makes that happen is current price (the candles). The bottom row (the COMM’s) hasn’t seen that turning down yet. That just tells me that we, presently, are not seeing a big picture risk aversion market sentiment yet. But, it sure does look like it with the USD/JPY.
I do think at times that that pair is the most prominent one. Kind of like the benchmark. Others do take cues from it.
Here’s my 2 trades at a close up.
Well, I do want to mention something on the USD/JPY (left one). Wednesday and Thursday candles show interesting price action candlesticks. I just wonder how many price action traders have thought that those were indicating a move up north. I mean, they are sort of similar to doji type candles (long wicks). But, it looks like price was testing the waters on south before heading there (and of course this is all in hindsight).
Price action trading is interesting, but I just cannot put my trust into it. I just stay aware of it, that’s all.
So anyway, my trades must have been taken on Wednesday (dotted lines). And man did I catch this at such a sweet spot. See, my plan is to catch the cross over of the yellow line below the green line. At the ‘V’.
And how in the world would I have done this with the USD/JPY ?? Price just moved way to fast. Of course I could have put an entry order AT the green line. That would’ve worked. But I’m still technically taking a chance that price wants to continue to move down, and bring down the yellow line below the green. Because technically speaking, these are not trending yet. In my book, that happens when the crossover happens. And I need to remember that I simply do not know what’s going to happen in the future. But…there are indications that point to the Yen coming back alive. Because history has ALWAYS made that a truth! They always seem to come back and trend high for a time. I just happen to think that time is coming imminently.
But, boy, did I catch this one ahead of time. In fact, Journal, you probably remember a few pages back here in my journal, we seen this very thing happen with the USD/JPY. Price just shoots down so quickly, that I missed the move. I even chalked it up on a mind map of the reasons why I cannot get into a trend from the beginning. Well, I got to say, I learned (well my mind did) something. ‘Live and Learn’ my favorite motto.
Bottom line this week is I made 7% on those trades. Their still running. And I’ll keep it that way and see how it all turns out.
I do want to do some serious documentation during this time. I mean like every single detail on my trading. Like why did I get in? How? Just to answer any and all questions relating to what are all of the factors that make me get into the trades. Every little detail. Well, I’m gonna try. Cause I think this possibly might be another Yen run. Hopefully it will turn out that way. We’ll just have to see. And I want to take advantage of the possibilities.
Ok Journal. Got to run.
Thanks for listening.
Busy, busy weekend it has been.
Mike
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Good Morning Journal!
Well here we are, Sunday early morning, coffee is hot, finally got my screenshots ready, and I’m ready to type.
Ok, so, Journal, are you sitting down? Good. Cause guess what happened this week? And I’m not talking market either right now. Personal stuff is always most important.
Last Sunday, my daughter, brought into this world, another human being. That’s right Journal! You can call me Pap pap! I’m so happy. Little Eric Jr. He’s a cutie pie. It has been a long time since I held an infant. 27 yrs ago with her. AND I’m a grandfather while still in my 40’s !! (Phew…only in a couple more weeks from now and that won’t be true)
…long pause…thinking…
I just don’t know what to say. Of course there’s much I can talk about that. Life is a beautiful thing. Well, I just know one thing. He’s gonna have the best pap pap that ever lived. I’m looking forward to being close to my grandchild. Good times to come, for sure.
Ok, so, that’s nice. (Well, that’s really nice, actually)
How did my horse do this week? Yeah, as you know, last week started a JPY move on a couple currencies. And it’s still continuing Journal. Picked up a few more along the way also. I had a couple sell stop entries kick in. I mean, I’m not killing it, but definitely in the positive. Cause, as you know, some pairs just take so much longer to work out. But, you have to see the big picture. So far, it seems like the Yen is staging a comeback. IF it is true, for a good long Yen run, then I caught it at a good time. Only time will tell. This is what I’m holding out for. And I want to take full advantage of it. So, let me show you what the field looks like.
And instead of explaining each and every trade, there they are.
Top left (USD/JPY) going picture perfect. It’s technically trending now (crossover took place) and I got in beforehand. The next one over, on the top EUR/JPY, the dotted line is my entry order, but it hasn’t hit yet. Then the GBP/JPY entry trade kicked in, at the dotted line, and is turning out nicely now! The last one on top row is the CHF/JPY. This was gotten in last week. I’m in twice here, top dotted line and lower dotted line. Price is not really moving down much. I’m just going to hang in there. BTW…I do not have any stop losses in place. This is a lesson I’m learning from the last Yen run. Since I check in at the end of day, I will always have that option to get out at that time. And so far it’s just a waiting game. And speaking of that, my real loser here is the NZD/JPY. Bottom row, second one over from the left. The dotted line is where my entry order kicked in. But price bounced back on up to the top. Boy, come Thursday, I was seriously thinking of cutting my losses. Look at the second to the last daily candle there. I was looking at a minus $10 and change. That’s a little much for me. But…I kept the trade running on hold. Then Friday’s doji candle made me feel much better. Triple top, or head & shoulders pattern, looks good for me to just stay in and hope it drops on out. We’ll just have to wait and see the outcome. When it comes to the AUD, and CAD, (bottom left and third one over) I’m not even touching them yet. Although the AUD looks like I should get the entry order placed at the green line soon. But Mike…why don’t you play the AUD like this is a top? Like you did with the USD?
Uhhhh…Well…Uhhhhh…When I think about it, the Aussie is on a tear. They have been so strong lately. And according to my other table, they look to over take the CAD on strength. I don’t know. Bottom line is they are too strong now. See, this is the con drum. How much emphasis do I put on fundamentals in conjunction with the technicals. I can say that they look to be at a top right now, technically speaking. But fundamentally there is a strong case for risk-on. And also you have to think about the CAD being on such a tear lately also. I don’t know, we can go back and forth on this. Strength has been bouncing back and forth from the NZD, then to the CAD, and this past couple weeks the AUD. The NZD did signal a dropping. And I just wonder if both the AUD, CAD will follow suit now. Look, I just don’t know. But my plan calls for catching the crossover down. I can’t get too greedy here and think that I can always catch it before hand. Is it a real tell-tell that the majors up there are signalling an across-the-board Yen run? Just maybe. Cause I seen it before, many many times. But when you look at price action with those three, ((l) big red candle, (m) triple top, ® consolidation flag ) you can easily build a case for a JPY turn on down.
Bottom line…I need to be ready, and have some kind of entry orders waiting, that’s all.
Anyway, I’m doing good. I do feel my trades have been getting better. This is the game, and I absolutely love it.
Btw Journal…I’ll show you what I do at the end of every day. It’s a table that I keep. This keeps me abreast of what’s going on in the market. Whoever has the most trending highs takes the strength. I have the daily line up, the weekly line up, and monthly line up.
In the middle there is what July 1st looks like on the monthly time frame. The NZD, on the monthly time frame, is trending high against everyone. The GBP, is trending low against everyone. Then on the weekly time frame, I have the strong down to the weak line up, (July 2, 9, 16, 23). And there’s the daily also. You can see in the last 2 days of this month the AUD is now trending high against everyone. And the JPY, on the last day, finally has moved on up. They are trending higher than the USD. You can actually see the crossover the Yen did on the USD at the above chart.
This gives me a flow and perspective of the market. I believe it helps a lot. There is order in the market. We’re gonna see if the AUD will spend more time up there or not. And whether the JPY will continue to rise up the ranks…or not.
Ok.
Pap Pap out.
Mike
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Good Morning Journal!
Well, are you ready to listen Journal? Cause I got a lot to get off my chest. Also there is something I’ve been wanting to expound on for some time now. But first, boy, do I want to show you the action in the market.
Ok, so, this is where we’re at. You have to remember, just the last time in here, that the Yen has been making some strong moves. And precisely, I showed you that they are trending high against only one currency now. The USD. (Of course, who isn’t, right?) Well Journal, let me tell you, it’s continuing.
But first, this is what’s going through my mind. In my trading, all I’m doing is waiting on the JPY. I play when they are being bought up. And since I watch and keep track of the entire field, I don’t know if they will eventually rise on up to the top and be the strongest, dominating currency, to eventually show long trends across the board, or not. Of course that’s what I want to see. But I just cannot assume that’s going to be the outcome. I am trying to remind myself of this. I shouldn’t assume anything, period. But…it’s tough Journal, cause, like the case is now, they are getting some good traction going. And I fall trap to the idea that they can eventually strong arm other strong currencies. I guess what I’m trying to say here is…I wonder how much of an affect does the JPY have laterally across the other currencies? I think I have a tendency to wish that to be true. And, surely, that is not a good thing to do. Maybe when we hear ‘risk-off’ prevailing in the market do they naturally tend to transcend across the others. But the question is, is that the only reason why traders go long the Yen? Their safe haven status? Well, how about their economy? I mean, they have been falling short of their 2% inflation target for ever. I remember when their new central banker head Kuroda and Prime Minister Abe first came on the scene. That’s all they’ve been shooting for is 2%. And they just cannot get close to that. They are so far from that it’s not even funny. Nobody knows quantitative easing more than them. It’s just simply awful. Anyway, I’m just pointing out the other reason for why traders would normally trade a currency. And I don’t think it’s because of their economy.
Anyway, I guess I need to remember that all the 7 pairs are not always correlating to one another. Sometimes, but not always.
Oh, yeah, and let me show you how I tasted a bit of that defeat this week.
Man…the NZD…This is what I was looking at, the close of Wednesday.
You see where I sold it at, the bottom dotted line. It has just gone up since. I have no stop loss in place. Believe me, I’ve been getting a little worried about this trade. You can see where price went down, snagged my entry order, and turned north. Yeah, so, seeing the strength the Yen is having on the USD, and thinking there’s gonna be some correlation, I’m hanging in there. Well, for how long will I be? Look, price just broke through resistance. So I’m sitting there, nodding my head, seeing a - $17. and change on this trade. That’s too much for me! So, the first thing that enters my mind is that I need to wait till the end of the week. I have just seen it a million times the turn-around during a week. Look…there hasn’t been one this week yet. End of day Tuesday was sitting right on top of the resistance level. Yeah, I gave it one more day. Ok. Now what? It could simply just go higher and higher. Forget about a ‘turn’. Then I’m thinking that I’m being like a newbie and won’t cut my losses. “Am I afraid of taking a loss”…???..Well, the smart side of me says, absolutely not. I’ll cut that right now. And that’s what I did. I refuse to be the one who won’t cut your losses short. So to speak.
And here’s the evil.
Hindsight.
Yep, I cut my losses alright.
Maybe not.
Look Mike, this is the game. In fact, I remember this week that one of the BabyPips guys was short this pair also. And he took his loss also. That kind of made me feel better. (Sorry!!)
It’s just a loss. Their gonna happen. But, at least I can remember that there is some merit to the fact that in a weeks time, a turn normally happens. That’s all. Maybe I will incorporate the ‘weeks time’ into my plan.
It is something to remember.
Now, Journal, how about some good news.
Oh yeah Mike, bring it.
Yeah buddy!!!
Who’s trending?
And this is my goal. Whoever is trending, I want to be in it. Top left is the USD. I’m in there, twice, at the dotted line. Also I’m in the top right one, CHF/JPY, twice also, both dotted lines. And the only other one is with the GBP, top row third one over from the left. So, needless to say, I’m very happy with the way this is turning out. So, it was at the end of day on Friday that I took pics from my phone of my account, before the broker shut down for the weekend. This is what it looks like.
So, given my loss this week, and where I stand now, I’m up 28%. This is the total from when the JPY has begun their run lately. It started with the USD. Remember when I was at work, and broke all kinds of rules and got in with them initially? Then with the CHF? That’s when it all started. So, my goal now is to see how I fair during this time. Like I said a little while ago, I would like to keep detailed accounts of my trades during this time that the JPY is on the run. Like…total % amount accrued, wins, losses, how my entries were, how my managing went, how my exits went, how my risk management turns out, money management plays out, and anything else I need to learn, when it’s time to trade.
Ok Journal, I still have some time left.
That’s what’s going on in the market for me. I want to come back with something that I’ve been wanting to talk about. That I’ve been thinking a lot about lately.
Mike
Ok Journal, so, let’s see if I can get this out. (There’s so much I want to convey)
It hit me one day recently, about the ‘system’. The trading system. And it’s funny that it had so much in common with another thread posted recently, about what exactly is a trading system/method?
See, to back it up a little, every trader must have this going through their minds. The end of the road. Where you really want to end up. Whether making a lot of money, or (like me) just wanting to get to the full time status. We have in the back of our minds the goal, and then of course the road to get there. And that naturally brings the sense of…‘a long time’. I know that in order for me to get to the full time status I will need X amount of dollars in the bank. And it’s a lot. That is kind of what’s depressing. My plan is to trade my way there. I mean, it only makes sense. If I can keep on trading part time, and over time generate that amount of money, then I will have deserved to do this full time. It’s the proof in the pudding. I will have gotten good enough to do it. But, if we really knew how long it is going to take, then there’s a good chance of giving up on it. Simply because it’s going to take a long time. That’s what I’m talking about here. You know, others might be like this also, but, for me, I know that I always need something to hang on to. A vision. A goal. The prize. The thing that I can wake up to and feel good about that no matter how long it’s going to take, it will be worth it. But sometimes, when you look at the road to be traveled, and how long it’s going to take, that can weigh on you. Especially year after year that goes by. I don’t have a problem with staying on the road. I know, without a shadow of a doubt, that I will spend the rest of my life pursuing my dream. This is a given. I’m bent this way. I am a trader and I won’t deny myself. Besides, nothing makes me more happier than this venture.
But, there is an encouraging perspective to have. For the short term. To keep you going. And it hit me. And it sure does help matters, on a daily basis, when you know that it’s gonna take a great amount of time and effort to get there.
It’s been under my nose the whole entire time. The Earth will not tremble when I say it, but when I explain it, it will make all the sense in the world.
It’s all about your system/method. Also your entire business operation. Bottom line, how do you do it?
See, I know that I will need a large amount of money to start. I can’t get around that. But what actually is more important than that is my entire trading system. To be specific, it’s the strategy coupled with the operations of the business.
I was in a conversation with someone recently. It went like this. “If you had the money right now, to start your business, would you do it?” And as honest as I am to myself, I said no way. I am just not ready yet. I do not have a track record of proving myself time and time again. I do not have the proof, over months and months, to show that I am capable of consistently increasing my account balance. That’s why I believe it’s best to trade your way there. That will be all the proof you need, to yourself and possibly to others.
But, let’s step back and look at it this way. I really don’t think there’s a difference between having a $1,000 balance or a $100,000 balance. If you work the system, without regards to how much is in the account
in a consistent manner, protecting the account, perfecting the method, building the business, then theoretically speaking, working with 1K would work the same as with 100K. Say we started in Jan., with a 1K account balance. And we are looking at an entire calendar year. We will then have 12 times that we will be looking at results. They say somewhere around 7% a month is considered a good return. So then, at the end of Jan, how close did we get to making the account balance around $1,070.00 ? Wow…that doesn’t seem too hard to do. Huh? Then month 2 would be like $1,145.00 . Month 3 would be $1,225. Month 4 would be $1,310. Month 5 would be $1,401. Month 6 would be $1,500. Month 7 would be $1,605. Month 8 would be $1,717. Month 9 would be $1,837. Month 10 would be $1,965. Month 11 would be $2,102. Month 12 would be $2,249.
Well, I don’t know about you, but that is encouraging enough for me. Definitely doable. Slow and steady wins the race huh? Basically you’re, a little over, doubling the account in a years time. Well, Journal, all you have to do is go back to the beginning of this journal and see that when I first went live, Jan '16, with $1K, I doubled my account in 3 months. Actually in the 4th month (April) is when I doubled it. Then that’s when I crashed it. On month 4. I know, I know, I know, …I was out of control. Don’t remind me. It’s all in black and white for ya anyway. My point is, it’s definitely doable. The hard part is consistently.
So again, my point really is this.
It’s the system.
If it is in place, the way you approach the market, the way you get in and out of trades, the way you operate on a consistent basis, the things you constantly do as you run the business, it shouldn’t matter how much money you are playing with. Because when someone gives you $100,000, are you going to trade the way you know how to trade? Are you going to operate in the same, second hand nature, way that you know how to? Will it be business as usual?
It should be.
And that, Journal, gives me hope. I don’t need to be thinking of how much money I will need to start up my business full time. All I’m going to do is work my business part time. Work on my system. Prove it month after month, after month. And in this field of uncertainty, when I can get comfortable making the percentage that I need, then maybe when/if someone approaches me and asks "If you had $100,000 right now, would you go full time, I would definitely say yes, cause I have proof already.
All I need to do is concentrate on the process. You know, I wonder if I can even pretend to run a business full time? Sure it would be tough to, given the fact that I am not home all the time. But, how about some strategies that hone in on a slightly different time frame? I do know that one of these days that I will want a strategy for every different time frame. Like a long term one (monthly t.f.), one for the weekly t.f., daily, maybe even 8 hr, surely 4hr, 1hr would be intraday. But, there shouldn’t be any reason why I couldn’t delve into those soon. You know. Hey…if my crossover system is working out good, then why not just adapt it to the different time frames?
Well Journal, I think I got it out there.
Time has run out for me now.
Got to run.
Mike
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Hello Mike, I am assuming you are a real person and not a “pigment of imagination” by the site owners/overlords. So a few friendly observations.
- You appear over-weighted JPY
- I would recommend you get some levels on your chart .
a. High, Mean, Low, different time frames - Watch your emotions
a. When you step out into your Hub, you must abandon all thought of hope, self
fulfillment, feeling good, purpose in life etc. - What is your exit for your GBP/JPY
a. how much longer are you going to hold it
The Ever Observant VIPER
Oh, and one question, you are short GBP/JPY correct ?
If so, with all due respect, what was your entry?
The Ever Questioning The Status Que VIPER
Good Morning Journal! How you doing?
I’m good. I’m mean…all things considered…pretty dog-gone good.
So, we have a lot to catch up on, Journal. Cause the end of the month was like last Monday night at precisely 8pm for me. (That’s 00:00 GMT, and the start of a new day) At that time I take a look at my account and see where I’m at. It’s my milestone, where I take stock in how things are progressing. I took a picture at that time, since I have running trades. And when I calculated it all up, what a shock I had. After that last post I did, realizing percentages to an account, I was really amazed. Bottom line is…I’m doing good. I’m doing better. Definitely progressing. And that is all I care about. I just need to know that I’m getting closer to the goal. This month is by far the best month so far. I know there’s more to it than just the $ amount bottom line. But when that is growing, it has to mean something. So, let me show you my table. And BTW…I did not add any money to the account, since last month. It’s all from the market.
See, I’m telling you, that last post I wrote up made me realize a lot. I have reread it over and over. It is very important to me. This is something I need to remember on a daily basis. What was it about again?
It’s all about the system, not the money.
My concentration should be on everything that goes into the system. Not on how much money I need to make.
But, I tell ya, when I see some good results like this, it’s a good sign.
Run the numbers Journal. I made 30.6% this month. That is telling! Sure, at first, when you see the amount, it isn’t all that much. What’s a couple hundred dollars? But on the other hand, 30%? Are you kidding me?
That made me think otherwise. I’m doing good.
My system is doing good. I mean, look, I was patient. Sitting there twittering my thumbs, waiting on the JPY. It wasn’t easy. I remember it all too clearly. The market was dancing without me, risk-on. I was sidelined. I was even wondering if my business was going anywhere. Then after so many days and weeks go by, I seen it coming. It started with the USD. And boy did I get in at the right time, beforehand. (It’s all noted up there). Then the CHF right behind them. I even got some extra positions with those two. Yeah, then, got spanked by the NZD. Learned something. Then the others have come along now. So now, that’s where I’m at, in the middle of the run. It’s not over yet. We’re gonna have to see how it ends up. I’ll have as much data as I possibly can for my time in the market, during this JPY run. It’s all being noted as I go.
Well, here’s my end of week shot of all my trades running.
There’s only 8 open there. (Couldn’t get it all on one shot on my phone)
You can see the dates when they were opened. Latest on down to the earliest.
One thing did happen this week that is not reflected there. I had a bout with the GBP. In fact, it was similar to the NZD. I lost. But the difference was I only let it go till I lost $9 and change. I jumped out then. And then of course, they come on back down. I got back in with them (GBP/JPY south), during Thursday’s huge drop. So, the AUD and the CAD got in with the action. Their sell stop orders kicked in. And I guess I didn’t mention that I got back in with the NZD. I put in another entry order that eventually got kicked in also.
Here’s my bottom line to date.
So, I’m gonna cut this short. But I must come back and do some explaining. I’ve been questioning my indicators. I feel that I’ve found a better way.
Just take a look.
Different huh. Don’t worry, I’ll explain. This is much better.
In any case, you can see all of the dotted lines that I’m in short with. Everyone except the EUR, at this time.
Mike
Journal…
Mike, Mike, Mike…what are you doing? Are you crazy? …Just kidding big dog…Talk to me. What you been thinking here?
Well Journal, I’m questioning everything. This has been nagging me since the beginning. You know that little voice way back in your head? Saying that something is just not right? Well, I wanted to get to the bottom of it. I did a good bit of research. And all of this has to do with…the trend. Everyone needs something to tell them when something is trending. Whether an indicator, a pattern, I don’t care, something needs to tell you that a trend is taking place. And I picked the 8,21 crossover method. And if you remember, Journal, we talked about this. My most bottom line of ‘WHY’ really wasn’t an answer. I believed in it because someone else did. A well-known trader, mentor, teacher uses it. That is not a justifiable reason. It should be more of a concrete, personal belief of why I think it works. So, I did some investigating.
First off, my trading has not been that bad. In fact, I’ve been making some real head-way. I do believe in the fact that success in trading comes more from the trader than the system. I think I’m living proof. I’ve been able to manage myself into a trend, not because of my indicator, but because of many other factors at play (some would call them confluences). When you really think about it, how many different ways are there to tell you when something is trending? Probably a million and one.
And so, what we’re talking about here is what tells me when a trend starts and when it ends. My system is designed to get me in a trend at the beginning and ride it out to the end. So, I need something to tell me that it’s trending, so that I can get into it then. I’m learning that it takes some finesse to get into it at a certain point (for instance the crossover before). And I need something to tell me when the trend is over. My exits will need finesse also. But, I at least need something to see, for it to tell me it’s over.
Ok, that’s nice. I’m coming out with it.
Bollinger Bands. I seriously don’t want to get into the whole process of how I came up with it, because it’s extensive. But, needless to say, it was because of some good healthy research.
I was not going to ban an EMA. That, to me, is important. I fully believe in smoothing out past price action. Everyone says that that is a lagging indicator, and talks like that is a bad thing. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve heard that. In such a condescending manner also. Well, you know what, I have news for you. **Everything is a lagging indicator, EVEN PRICE !!! ** This is how I think. What happened a second ago, is history, just as much as something that happened a day, week, month ago. Everything is history. Theoretically speaking, I’m not wrong. The only thing that is considered present, is ‘today’. It’s in a general sense of the word. But, in the market, in actuality, all that happens is in the past. Think about it. When a big trader (fat finger) thinks about what he is going to do, he has already decided. Then, he hits the button. It’s in the past already before it even shows up in the market! It is a theoretical discussion. No one can say that there’s a difference between a millisecond and a month. They both have taken place, in the past, not the future, and not in the present.
And I’m still waiting to hear a concrete time when the present begins and ends. Anyway, I don’t buy into the saying of something being lagging. I do want to know what the average closing price over the last so many days were. Price fluctuates so much that there has to be a happy medium. I believe in a day. I believe in the closing price. And I got to tell you. My favorite setting for the EMA is 21. That is pretty much how many trading days are in a month. So, I stuck with that. It is all in the Bollinger Band.
After searching out B.B’s, boy do I feel much better this way. It’s easier, and I do believe price reacts real accurately to the bands for support and resistance. I learned the best setting for the bands is 2.5 standard deviation, as opposed to the default of 2.0. So, it’s simple. How do I know if something is trending? If it’s above the middle line (21 EMA) it’s trending high, below that line is trending low. That’s what all my pairs will be hoping for. JPY trending high will be below the line.
All I need to do is see what side of the yellow line (21) price is at. And you can see that price is below that line on everyone except the EUR.
I don’t have much changes to my trading. I will use that yellow line as my entry point, for lower. Hey, if it’s trending, I want to be in it. And when it’s not, I’m not in it. It’s that simple.
I have much more work to do, especially in regards to upping the position sizing (managing) , and also for the exits.
Got to run Journal.
We’ll be in touch.
Mike
1 Like
Ok got it, gone have a great life.
The Ever Gone VIPER
This journal is not unlike Livermore’s jotter with it’s pencil and red ink entries.
It was reviewing those notes that Livermore realized the value of what we call levels.
Mike’s journal has a different approach, we see ‘levels’ in the form of ma’s, but more importantly we get to see inside the thinking of a person trading the market.
This is unique and to be cherished, many thanks to the journal for listening and sharing.
2 Likes
Good Morning Journal!
Me and You here Journal.
Only Me and You.
So…I got a lot going on, Journal.
See, first off. I got to tell you. I think so much about you Journal, throughout the week. In my morning times, the things that I’m working on, is very constructive, I think. So much that I’m always wishing that I can be journalizing right alongside. But I can’t. I don’t know, maybe I can give it a try. I mean, honestly Journal, it would be awesome because then it wouldn’t be so difficult on the weekends, cause, like now, I have to go back and remember all of the things that I wanted to write down and talk about. And of course, I never get to everything I wanted to. So, anyway, look out for some material during the weekdays. I know you’ll always be there to listen.
Ok. Yeah. That’s nice.
So…Journal…unless your under a rock, you have to know what’s been going on in the market lately.
Of course I do Mike…but let’s pretend that I don’t know. Tell me some good news. Risk-off sentiment still prevailing for you?
Ohhhh man. Yes. Yes it has been. And my account is rolling on. Let me show you.
Here are all the trades. 10 total. 7 = all of them, plus 3 that are doubled.
And this is the market snapshot. Again, dotted lines are where I’m short at.
As you see there, every pair is trending high on the daily time frame. So to me, that means they are the strongest currency, on the daily. The next strongest currency will be the one who is trending high against everyone except the JPY. And so forth on down the line to the weakest. I told you a little bit ago that I keep track of this. So, here’s the picture. Just look at the Yen (purple).
In the middle of the pic is the monthly time frame standing, taken Aug 1st. Then above that, the group of 2, is my 2 weekly time frame shots. They are done on Sundays, and that is the standings on the weekly time frame. The group of 5 is the daily time frame standings. This is the best way I know how to put it all into perspective. Strong down to weak. But this way, I can always see who’s moving up or down. And since my horse is the Yen, just look how fast they climbed to the top. Man…I was riding them even when they were still on the bottom (daily time frame). Ok. I’ll back it up a little and show you what last month in total looked like.
You can see there that they pretty much started to rise up on the last day of the 3rd week, standings wise. Then on the 4th week, made a good move up. But, I took my first trade with the USD back on the 12th. That was during the 2nd week of the month! So, you can see that when they start moving up on the live charts, it doesn’t get reflected so quickly in the standings. It’s a real delay. And that’s precisely how I’ve been making money with them during these last few weeks. They have been climbing on up the charts. It’s all relativity. To the other currencies.
BTW…I don’t care about levels. The only real level is the yellow line, 21 EMA. If price is above that line, the base currency is trending high and the counter currency is trending low. (BASE/COUNTER) Likewise the opposite when price is below the line for the counter currency to be trending high. My JPY is always the counter currency, so I want below the line.
In any case, my Yen has been climbing up through the ranks. I’ve been on them the whole time. But now, it’s gonna be a matter of time till they eventually fall. So my exit plan will be similar to the beginning plan. I will want to start jumping out when I see the changes taking place. On my daily table, I will have to be seeing changes. See, this is the game. No one knows how long strength lasts. Man…I have 3 yrs of documentation of these currencies, in a similar manner. I used to have tables and tables of strong/weak relationships. I’ve seen the Yen on top for a couple months straight before. But of course, that’s history. All that tells me is the possibilities that can take place. In any case, I’m entering the phase, in my trades, where I’m gonna have to figure out when I’m done profiting. But I need to remember, my rule of thumb is, if it’s trending, I’m in it. When it’s not, I’m out. So, I will wait until I see price start rising up close to the yellow line. Sure I’m gonna be losing some when the time comes. But, who knows, the Yen just might be starting. I want to ride out the trend to the end. Cause I really don’t know when it will_actually _end.
Needless to say, I’m going through the good times right now. This month my account is up 31.9% . Yeah, that’s awesome, I know. But what I need to remember is that’s it’s not my money yet. That’s called the unrealized profit. It gets realized when I close my trades. But my trading strategy is not yet completed until the JPY is done trending high. Who knows? I might never see my account up this high by the end of the month. On the other hand, this might be low compared to what the market might have for me. I just don’t know. But, I will let the market dictate to me when I need to get out. See, I want to follow the market. Cause I believe in the trend. All I can do is follow it and hope that it will be long. I’ve seen some long trends before, and it can simply be amazing. We’ll see what happens.
Journal, I have sooooo much more I need to run by you. But, once again, I got to cut this short.
I’m gonna try to come on back.
Mike
Journal…let’s begin.
Remember, it’s all about the system. What I mostly want to talk to you about is My System. Do you remember when I took (paid good money for) those classes? All of what I learned then was about what your system should entail. I believe I got my moneys worth, because everything that was covered is precisely what goes into your system. Believe me, there is so much. It kind of reminds me of what the scientists think of the big bang theory. In the beginning, everything that came into existence was compressed into a very small particle. Then there was a big bang that occurred that spread everything out. And is expanding. Well, in a similar fashion, I believe that I was given/taught all of the things that I need for my system. That would entail everything that goes into what a trading business should encompass. There are so many aspects that they need broken down and need worked on. And that’s what I want to continue on in here. See, I love to put all things into perspective. There is nothing more vital for me to do than that for my business. All things need to be laid out, put into perspective, broken down, and to get to the bottom of it all. All for the reason of control. I can remember him telling us, “We need to be in control of our trading”. For as much risk that there is in this business, the more control we must strive to have.
Well Journal, let me show you something. You know that mind maps are my greatest tool. So, that has been the best way for me to compartmentalize all of the different aspects of my business. I want to get more organized in that way. This is where I stand now. This is just a glimpse of what I look at everyday. Every one of those red X’s is a mind map subject. This shot is what my desktop looks like.
Pretty unorganized huh. Well, to some extent it is. I know all of the titles there are pretty much abbreviated, due to space concerns, but maybe you can get some kind of idea of what they are. My objective is to organize all of these mind map subjects much better. But, as it stands, this is my system, in plain sight. Don’t worry, I’ll explain what everything is. For now, what I see is, bottom row is my core trading skills. Second row from the bottom is a lot of my trading values. Boy do I have a lot of work to do in that area. I want to augment many of those subjects. Some belong, and more needs added. Then in the third row from the bottom, the first 4 MM’s are important, not the rest. And up at the top row, those MM’s mostly have to do with my strategy. And I honestly don’t have much else in the way of organization there. As you can see, I have a lot of work to do. I know I can get it better.
In fact, I have a ton of work to do period! So, this is what we are going to be working on Journal, for some time. This is actually what is most important to me. Not only the organization of it all, but the contents.
I’ll show you what I was working on this past week. See the third row from the bottom? Most right side. That one is ‘My Core Trading Beliefs’, then left of that is ‘My Trading Weaknesses’, then left of that is ‘My Trading Strengths’. I was working on the weakness one. That was pretty humbling for me. I did feel good about how I worked on it this week. And I’m not so sure I want to show that mind map. I don’t know…it’s humbling.
Let me look at it again.
Ok. 2 shots here. The first one is what I had before on this mind map. This was the original draft.
This is the leg that I worked on this week.
Well, it’s personal Journal. So don’t tell anyone. I hate to think of going backwards, and learning lessons again. But…I am entering into a new era of my trading. So, I need to combat it that’s all. I am honest with myself, even if it hurts.
I’m glad you understand also Journal!
Well, this is just the tip of the ice berg.
Organization will be mine!
Mike
Good Morning Journal!
Well, it’s so nice to visit you on a Sat. morning, finally. I’ve been wanting to. But for whatever reasons, it just doesn’t work out. But today, success. I woke up to the alarm, 3am. (It’s always set, & on, for that time)
Pretty much jumped right out of bed. I couldn’t believe it. I’m finally happy with myself, cause I can finally take advantage of a full weekend of productive time. Sat am, & Sun am.
So…coffee is hot…got my figures tallied already…and now I’m ready to type. So. Let’s get the good news out of the way first, then we’ll get back to the ‘system’.
How’d your week turn out Mike?
Well Journal, it turned out good. Was a bit of a roller coaster ride. But boy, I tell ya, thank God I believe in a ‘weeks time frame’. My account was just shooting higher and higher, then somewhere around mid week, it drops pretty low. Lower than what I’ve seen in a while. Then back on up at the end of the week. I’ll show you the details.
So, yesterday, I worked only a half a day (at my day job), which means I was able to check in the market before my broker closed it. I took this pic pretty close to 5pm. Here are all my trades open. Their in chronological order of when I placed them. Man, I’m sorry you can’t see there an actual date they were taken. But, I do have that data on a mind map. So, the last 2 trades there were taken on the 14th. This past Monday night. Well, I wanted to up the position sizing. And I did. But, they didn’t really take yet. Price has pulled away from it, but came back now. I don’t know how this is going to turn out yet. Hopefully this wasn’t a mistake with these 2 pairs. I’ll show you. It’s the bottom row, first and second ones from the left. (AUD, NZD)
Man, that Aussie has been a tough one (bottom left). You can see my dotted lines where I’m in at. This 3rd position has definitely been a hairy one.
So, let’s back it up a little. Check out all my trades. It is a wonderful thing to see the pips. Look at the ‘Lot P/L’ column. I’m playing in the hundreds of pips. Yes. It is an awesome thing. But then you look at the ‘Net P/L’ column, which is the dollar amount I’m making per trade. And…well, it’s not all that, to write home about. But…then again…that’s when you got to see what the percentage of the account is. This month, up to this point, I’m up 34.4 %. And to me, that’s a whole lot.
Look Journal, all I’m doing here is showing you, in slow motion, what I’m looking at, when I look at the account. All that. But, then, the next thing that goes through my mind is this. (I’ve already have stated this, but I’m going to say it again, cause I need to) **This is not my money yet ! ** My trades are not closed out. The Yen is still churning. And the strategy is not yet completed. I haven’t even navigated my exit strategy yet. I need a reason for my exits, and up to this point, I haven’t encountered them. But…Journal…I’m starting to wonder, now. Cause I see something. And we have to talk about this. Now.
These are my reasons.
The biggest thing that made me ponder jumping is the USD/JPY. Just look at the latest price action.
Daily chart, extending back to the beginning of the year. You can see where I got in at. Dotted line. Actually I have 2 positions there, separated by only 3 pips. Yeah, that’s pretty impressive, I think. But what’s eating at me now is the latest price action here at the bottom. A long candle wick. Also, this is what they call a double bottom. But, that of course, is assuming there’s going to be a bounce from here, on up. We have now a second doji looking candle, and it is scaring me. I mean…do I really think that price can break down below this area? If it does, it will pretty much be in the lows for the year. Ok. So, let me give a possible scenario for that. This can possibly be the time when the US stock markets make the much awaited crash. Which will mean, in the currency market here, that money will flow to the safe haven Yen.
Ok Journal. Sorry. I’m back now. Got more coffee. And done a little research. Let’s take a look at this.
Red is the S&P, blue is the USD/JPY. This is the weekly time frame, extending back to the global depression era. My question is whether they correlate to each other or not. Should I consider this in my thinking?
I’ve always thought that when the equity markets dive, the money flows into safe haven currencies. Well, it’s probably true, but not always. Ok, so, let’s talk about this screen shot.
The stock market…in red…left of the screen…takes the dive heading into 2008. Yep, 2008 was a real bad year, globally. As we all know. Then the climb begins shortly after into 2009. And it’s been nothing but up since then. But look at the USD/JPY. At the start of the whole ordeal, it was at a top. The USD was boss. King Dollar. Yen trash. But, when all hell broke loose, the tables turned. It was an influx into the Yen, and a selling of the Dollar. You cannot deny that. In fact, look closely, that pair was crashing before the market was. I wonder if the pair was a precursor to the event. Is this the leading indicator? Anyway. In plain jargon, the Dollar was being sold, and the Yen being bought, from that time all the way up to the year 2012. Meanwhile the market was marching higher and higher for 3 years already. Look, another thing just hit me. We have to realize what was happening also through this time. We started into the quantitative easing era. The governments made money for businesses to use, oh, and bail outs also. So, yeah, I’m sure that’s why the market was able to rise up again. Ok. So, the Dollar came back to life approaching into 2013. And I was trying to remember what was going on then. I remember (cause that’s when I started into this business). That’s when the Yen did their massive quantitative, devaluing of their currency. Between their new central banker and emperor (or whoever), they just let it loose. I didn’t realize it a whole lot then, but apparently that was easy money to be made. I wish I was aware of what was happening back then. Cause it was definitely big news. Man…I bet you our FX men here made a lot of money back then, selling the Yen. I can’t imagine. That was probably good times for those traders. I was in diapers and learning how to breath back then. Oh well. Ok. So. Where we at again. The Dollar made another top, that’s at the same height of when the depression began. Interesting. Middle of 2015. The stock market took a couple big hits during that year. And here comes the Yen. They got much stronger when the market faltered. So, we see the change occurring now, 2015 leading into 2016. Then Yen gets strong, the Dollar gets weak. And I’m trying to remember when the US first started the easing cycle. Well, I do remember the first interest rate hike. It was in Dec of 2015. Maybe that explains the drop in Dollar through 2016. Then I remember another hike in Dec. of 2016. Well, I think so. Look, I’m not an economist. There’s so many factors that can be mentioned. But I just don’t know which ones take precedence. Let’s look at the chart technically speaking. We have a top for the USD/JPY in '15. The next swing high comes just before '17. This is a lower high. And since then it’s on the down slope. So, the way I see it is, there’s room for it to fall. And what about the stock market? Well, you don’t have to be a genius to see their due for a real correction. But, it seems to me that the currency pair is preceding the market. It kind of looks like what happened back at the beginning. Huh? That’s what I see anyway. So…where we at again? I said up there a little bit ago that it looks like a bottom can be occurring. But now I made the case that it can be the opposite. Maybe price wants to break on down through? So…how am I going to play it? With my trading?
Good question. I can take my profits off the table now, and see what happens. You know…I need to remember something here. I’m trading off of the daily time frame. But we’ve been looking at the weekly time frame. There’s no doubt there’s possibly more time for price to range, or even rise up before a fall. So, I’m thinking maybe I should take my profits now. And if price falls below this present level, then just get back in.
I know Journal…I can here you say…Mike, stick to your trading plan. Ok. So that would be staying in the trade until it’s not trending anymore. Presently, that would be at the yellow line, which is at 110.35 . That’s 115 pips above where we’re at now. So, do I sacrifice around $10. or so, for the sake of following the plan? Or do I follow some intuition and count on price action. This would be considered navigating an exit. Cause if price action turns out to be a truth, then price will most likely rise on up to my exit. I’m thinking I should take the profit on this one. I mean, unless North Korea and Trump exchange words before Sunday night, I should exit my 2 positions and start afresh.
Now…what about my other trades? Well, see, my question is, does the USD/JPY set the stage for the entire field? One one hand, if the Yen is most dominant currency, then of course it will. If their strong, then they will be strong across the board. If their weak, likewise the other. But what about the Comms? If the Dollar is weak, that can definitely make a strong commodity currency. But I will have to know who’s stronger then, the Yen or the Comms.
Ok Journal…I’m done. What you have there is a lot of thinking going on. Out loud. Plus, I got a lot of typing in. Yay! (Man, I love typing)
Well, the weekend is young, and I got a lot more to talk about.
Be back soon.
Mike
Good Morning Journal.
I was productive this past week, concerning my system. I feel good about what I accomplished. I guess what I’m mostly concerned about is how best to be organized with it. My ideal format would be some kind of way that I can have it all laid out systematically. I really like how I have it all on my desktop. I do wish somehow it could be a 3D view, but that’s impossible, given this is a one dimension screen. But what I need is the depth. Which is in effect subdivisions. But, the best I can do is utilize my mindmap attachments effectively. That gives depth. So, this is what I think is the best way for me to view my entire business. It’s not done, but my idea is taking some kind of shape now. And all of this is done for the purpose of viewing it, in it’s entirety. This way I can look at all of the components, at any time, to be picked apart, worked on, added or taken away. I guess it’s all for controls’ sake. I just cannot afford to have surprises in my business. I believe everything should be monitored in a business, doesn’t that only make sense? So, this is the way I want to have it laid out.
This is my thinking. What would be at the heart, the center most important parts, of my trading business? (And all of this stuff is what I learned from the master)
Why am I doing this? What’s the driving force behind it all? What is it that makes me motivated? The answer to those questions lie in my purpose statement. And my vision. This stuff belongs in the center.
So, I’m going to put it in the center of my desktop. And I’m gonna surround that with the most important, biggest asset that will get me there. ME My core trading skills, values, beliefs, strengths & weaknesses.
This is the stuff that everything else will derive from. This will be who I am. This is gonna be a forever worked on project. I’m not there yet. But all of the things that I learn and experience to get me to where I want to be, will be mapped out. All this will be core stuff. How do I think? How do I learn? How do I make decisions? Why do I believe what I believe? Etc…So, the heading I have for all of that is My Trading Culture. So, let me through out there what it looks like so far. And I’ll explain it from the top down.
So, on my desktop screen, on the right side, I will be putting all of my values (mind maps). On the bottom will go my core trading skills. And at the top of my screen will go my trading strategy, kind of like how I have it now.
This is why I wake up in the morning.
This is what I’m shooting for. Plus what it entails to achieve it.
I scrapped all of the ones I made before. I’m starting over on this subject. So, these are the two that I did this past week. I plan on having multiple, multiple values in here. I just want to go through them carefully. So, there will definitely be more to come.
I have big plans in this area. I will review my mind maps on each of these skills. But my plan is to eventually have each of these skills to be consistently utilized, in my business. Like, I want to know how to think properly, in all of the different aspects that I will be doing. I want to know how to learn properly, in all of the things that I need to learn. Can you imagine how much stuff I need to learn? Well, I just want to do it in the most effective way. Same goes for decision making. You know how many decisions I (we) make on a daily basis? Thousands. I just want to be most effective in that way. Bottom line is I want to establish these core skills in a way that I will be constantly using them most effectively.
This mind map will eventually be a massive one. I done this a couple weeks ago. And what I’m trying to do here is discover some real core trading beliefs of mine. Points that I think are very fundamental, in which I need to remember. I’m sure I will be changing these as time goes on, cause I need to know whether I’m right or not. I could be wrong, but I would need proof of concept. Maybe that’s what I am looking for in here…proof of concepts. And it’s about what I believe about the market.
Well Journal, I just touched on the heart and soul of my trading system. Just there is a massive amount of time needing spent on. I’m getting closer to organizing it all.
The work will continue.
Forever.
Mike
Good Morning Journal!
Well here we are again, Me, You, hot coffee, and a quiet world right now. Just how I like it for a (very) early Sat morning. Time to reflect and see where I’m at, where I came from, and where I’m going.
Looks like I need to back it up again. Sorry Journal, again, I wish we were tighter, but it’s so hard to do during the weekday mornings. My time is so limited.
Ok. So. After talking to you last weekend, I definitely determined to jump on out of the market. See, I know I better have a good reason, cause this whole JPY run has been a good one. In fact, for me, this is the first time I have completed a beginning, middle, and end, of my trading strategy. And I’ve always have been wanting to collect, and review so many of the details of a completed strategy. And I have. We’ll talk about that later.
But what’s very important is whether I’m in tune with the pulse of the market or not. I need to be on the same wave length as it is. So, these are the reasons why I jumped. First and foremost, was the price action of the USD/JPY. Bottom line there was it was looking like a bounce was gonna take place. Second, I got to thinking about what happened the prior week. Across the board, the Yen took a very big hit. I thought that was very unusual. Look…I know anything can happen in the market, but when they’ve been rolling strongly for awhile, this seemed kind of out of character. They bounced back by the end of the week. Yeah, it was all too scary, I know. So, I’m thinking that it was a sign of things to come. The ending. So, that was the second major reason for an exit. Another one was, that they had a relatively long run already. I think a good amount of days have passed for a satisfied run. Look, no one really knows how long runs are gonna last, but there has to be signs of an exhaustion. I mean, the USD/JPY ran for 27 days. That seems like a long time to me.
And then I was confronted with the question of do I follow suit with the other pairs? Do you mean I’m gonna jump out of a pair due to what the others are showing? Yeah, that kind of seems like nonsense, on the one hand. But, on the other hand, I tend to see the bigger picture. The whole perspective. And that is that I am trading the Yen. Period. I put more of an emphasis on the pulse of the market, than any one individual pair. I think the risk-on vs. risk-off view goes across the board. So, those are the things that I’ve been thinking about. Oh. And one more thing. In total, I am killing it! There has to be a time to take all the profits off the table. I just want it to be around the time the market wants a change.
And that’s what I did. Sunday night. My broker opens up trading at approximately 5:05 pm. There was a couple pairs that I couldn’t get it done until around 5:15. And that’s that. Did I do good? What if I made a mistake? What’s gonna happen from here? Where’s that leave my strategy? Yeah…lot’s of stuff rolling around my head at that time. But, I figure, this is the time I’m gonna stay out of the market. It’s that simple. I just have to go that way. I will be happy with what I got. And now…it’s my money. I’m gonna take it, and run. Whatever happens afterwards, happens. So, I spent the entire week collecting, organizing, laying out all the data from this run, as best as I can. Man, there’s a lot. I haven’t even finished it. I should show you. Interested Journal? Why, of course I am Mike. Awesome!
Now, before I go on, a lot of the hindsight data is not quite yet available on the mind maps, because I need more days to come and go to see whether I got out at a good time or not. So far, I have this entire week that came and went. I can get somewhat of an idea, but I think I still need another week or two, for a complete wrap up of how I did. Well, let’s take a look at this one, only.
And that reminds me, Journal. I forgot to tell you what else I did. Man…I got to thinking. It hit me on the close of Monday, that if I’m convinced enough to jump out, and I think that the Yen is in for weakening, then why not demo and see what would happen if I went against the Yen, across the board. I mean, it’s not gonna hurt. Let’s just see the opposite side of going with the Yen. I’m sitting out on the live account, but at least this way I can have an idea how the Yen fairs against everyone else. It would be data none the less. So, that’s what your seeing there on that last pic, where I went long the USD, short the JPY. Ok. That’s nice. Let’s move on.
These 2 are my losers. The blue lines are where I shorted them and exited them. I entered at the lower blue line and exited at the top blue line, for a loss. These 2 trades have shown me a valuable lesson, as you can see on the mind map. But, up at the NZD/JPY, the green dotted line is where I came back in, for short. And of course the red line is where I exited it. Also you can see I entered the NZD for another position towards the end. So, this is the rest of the NZD trades explained.
The green lines are where I went short at. The red line is my final exit.
And this is the last of the trades. As I said, I didn’t get to finish this. So no snap shot of them, yet.
Yeah, I just didn’t get to explaining them also.
But anyway, what do you think Journal?
There were 14 trades taken. 10 winners, 4 losers. And I somehow can’t believe the win rate. Is that true? I mean, let me explain. My trading account balance was $278.46, at the time I placed my first trade. So, whenever I calculated anything, I subtracted from that total, a % above that. I think that’s right. And my ending balance is now $470.39 . That just seems like a lot. That makes me feel better, because I did see my account climb over $500 a few times. But, again, that wasn’t my money. That, right there, is my money.
So, that’s all nice. We’re moving on. In the mean time, I’m out of the market now. And good thing, because I do think a change is occurring. Just look at my daily table, for this week.
Bottom right block was this past week.
You don’t know how happy I am to see the purple move on down.
So, the Yen moves on out. The dog-gone CAD comes on back up, along with the CHF. Those 2 man…I mean…looks like the SNB must get back to some more intervening, or something. They ain’t gonna like it for long. And we just cannot get rid of the CAD. They were very strong the whole month of July. Took a step back, but now pushing their weight around again. Their tough. Surely they are not getting any help from old man Oil. Oil isn’t going anywhere. But now, I wonder if they will give some kind of boost to the other commodity currencies. I sometimes think the US has some benefit to Canada also, being neighbors and all.
Also interesting is the EUR. They are not going anywhere. Been strong and staying strong, probably for a long time to come, too.
Alright Journal.
Gonna get going.
See you tomorrow.
Mike
Good Morning Journal !
Well, we have a lot to talk about. And what a better time than this weekend, cause it’s a 3 day weekend for me. Woohoo!! So, I got three times to come visit you this weekend.
I’m sorry that I missed the boat this morning. Bad night, and couldn’t wake up. But, I’ve already been preparing beforehand, so maybe I can catch up quickly.
Ok. So. From the top. End of the month just occurred. What’s my account look like now?
Those are the figures posted at the beginning of that month. And I threw in, on the latest 2 months, how much of an increase from the previous month. (I didn’t add any money, from the outside, on those 2)
Ok, so, we need to talk about this. What we got here, is, nothing but, gaining traction. As I look back on it all, the biggest thing was getting the strategy into place. That took place around the beginning of summer. Then I was doing a lot of waiting on the market for the right conditions (a JPY strong run). And to date, I have finally completed my first beginning, middle, & end to my trading plan. That took place on July 12th and went to Aug 20th.
Ok. So, that’s all good and nice. Bottom line is, I’m making progress. I’m on the road. I’m on the journey. Everything is pretty much in place at this point. And all I have to do is keep following the market. I think that’s the key. FOLLOW THE MARKET Not get before it. Not second guess it, or predict it. Just follow it.
So…speaking of that, now that 2 weeks have past since I closed up my trades, let’s look at the whole JPY run. I know I’ve done much of this already, but I think I’ve compressed the entire ordeal in a good way.
Here are my trades, in order, for the most part. These are all put into perspective. You can see exactly when & where I bought them (sold the pair), in what order, what the market was doing beforehand, what happened afterwards, as much of a visual as possible for hindsight.
What needs to be mentioned here, regarding my entries, is the fact that the JPY has been on a long (relatively speaking) depreciation. On the USD/JPY chart, the last time price crossed up and over the 21 EMA line was on June 15th. So, basically I’ve been waiting an entire month for this. I can’t tell you all of the different market factors that were going on at the time, but I had a good sense that the sentiment was changing for a favorable Yen. The USD was the first pair to eventually dive below the 21 line. I think it’s important to know how the Yen is fairing against all of the others. This dynamic tells me how strong they are/have been. See, I’m aware that I shouldn’t automatically assume that they are gonna take out all of the other currencies. All I’m doing is taking advantage of their strength. The more pairs they trend high with, the stronger they get.
But, what I want to do here is compare the when and the how the JPY took strength against them all. So, after the USD came the CHF. Even though I went in with both of them, at the same time, on a Wed, then 2 days later, the CHF didn’t really get going for about 2 weeks later than the USD. Now, the ending, was good. I’m satisfied. Sure! But, to note, I did get out around a week early, with the USD. I remember thinking that the turn-around was gonna happen imminently. (Remember me mentioning about the 2 price action candlesticks?) Well…No. Actually there was more money to be made. It’s ok. No one can call tops and bottoms.
The green lines are where I went long, on the demo account. And if I don’t say so myself, I did good. They all are still running. I’ll talk about that later on.
Here are my 2 early-on losers. # 5 & # 6
Do you see where I ‘cut my losses short’ ? Both of them. Exact same pitfall. Both were on a Wednesday! I jumped before the end of the week. (I won’t beat you down anymore with my new rule)
Well, at least I got back in with them. And both second trades were great. But doesn’t it figure, and you’ll see, the NZD was the only trade that didn’t go for the opposite (demo-northbound).
The next 2 here are the EUR, and the CAD, the strongest currencies lately. I guess I didn’t do too bad.
Look at the CAD. I didn’t make many pips on this one. But the thing is, there was many pips there. I mean, even looking back on it, what tells me that there’s a bottom? Nothing. No real price action indicating that.
I keep looking at the chart. There’s just nothing I can learn here. Look, there’s a nice real drop down. I mean consecutive red candles. So then, it retraces. Yeah, that’s always the case. I don’t know that this retracement will actually be a U-turn, cause that’s exactly what this is. What I do see here possibly is this. Do you see on the 17th, that pretty big red candle? Well, that day is Thursday. Look what happened on that Monday through Wednesday. Nothing but up. And you know by now my rule. There’s always a turn before the end of the week, (usually mid week). This red candle was the turn. Naturally I don’t know what’s going to happen on Friday, but theoretically I guess I could have gotten out then. Wait…No way. I wouldn’t of. And I didn’t. Guess what…I did jump after the very next day. It was the weekend, and I got out right at the open. Nothing really I could have done here. Plus, I don’t itemize my trades. Not yet anyway. I went all out.
So, here’s the AUD/JPY.
2 winners, and 1 loser. I don’t know, not much here to learn.
One thing I do know is, I definitely called it, the end of the JPY run.
The demo account is up around %10. That’s awesome.
Mike