My journey journal...from demo to live...and beyond

[WinPsych]

Hello again Mike and thanks for your reply.

Personally I think there are many ways of doing the same thing and the intention of my question was just to find out what your method was, not to start a debate, teach or criticise. 90% of what I do is day trading breakouts so I am no expert on swing trading or trend following over longer periods. What I do works for me the same as what other people do works for them.

I’m sorry if I didn’t word my question well, What I meant by value and illustrated with the workshop example is that all business is based on selling a product or service at a price which after all expenses allows you to make a profit. For a business there is value in taking on the job only if it makes a profit; or brings in more work which will allow you to make a profit at a later date, otherwise there is no value in taking on the job,( Unless you are a non profit organisation, of course but I am assuming that doesn’t apply here).

I suppose a better way to ask the question would be, taking into account your principle of letting winners run and cutting losers short, how are you determining if the winners after commissions and spreads and any other costs, have the potential to cover your losses and turn a profit? What is your method or metric that says, yes this trade; or more importantly this series of trades is worth taking on?

I understand that letting winners run and cutting losers short is the basis of what you are doing but wanted to know how you are doing that in a way that gives you a positive expectation? How are you determining value, what tells you that the job, as in the workshop example, is worth doing?

Cheers
Win

[anon46773462]

(Good to see you back here on BP again, @WinPsych! )

Apologies for the insert, @MikeWolski

[MikeWolski]

Good Morning Journal!

Good Morning Mike.

Well Journal, I don’t quite know who to talk to now. So, I’ll just talk to you and make some references to what I’ve been thinking about lately, concerning the question stated above.

Given the fact that I can’t truly wrap my head around the subject presented before me, I consulted a smart person (no less than a genius, in my mind) to thoroughly explain what I might be missing. In fact, it was him who just popped his head in. I guess I needed a translator ( not because of a difference in languages, but a difference in intelligence’s…too smart to too simple). Of course I’m the simple one here.

Anyway, I couldn’t answer the question. So, I’m going to take the liberty and divulge what I learned. This is straight up knowledge ( and I hope this will be ok to do ). [quote=“Manxx, post:3, topic:162564”]
I think the issue that WinPsych is raising is about trade probabilities and profit targets v. stoplosses - and their impact on the long term likely outcome over a period of many trades.

Every trade is a “guess”, the success of which we hope is enhanced by the application of our own criteria/analysis. Therefore we have two issues:

1. the success of each individual trade

2. the overall profitability of a series of trades over a long-term period

I think WinPysch is referring to the 2nd issue.

The principle underlying this is the formula combining R:R per trade with the overall success rate of trades. For example, if you generally succeed with 50% of your trades then your R:R only needs to be greater than 1:1 to end up profitable.

But this is not actually sufficient. This formula also requires the same position size and the same number of pips in the ration - or combination of these so that the total pip value you are targetting exceeds the total pip value that you are risking.

In the same way, if your trade success rate is, say, 25% then your overall R:R should be greater than 1:4 so that one big win will recover 4 losses and still leave a profit.

I think WinPysch 's workshop analogy is suggesting that although you might agree to do the deal for $300 as a “one off” as it will produce a little extra, it would not end up in the long run being profitable if you overall did many such deals. In other words without a R:R policy in your trading how can you be sure you are not just taking on the $300 deals and missing out on the “real value” $750 deals which are priced correctly and will produce a real income in the long run.

There are two types of trading: regular income and capital building. I think this is an important issue for traders who are looking to earn a regular income in the same way as a workshop needs to routinely cover its costs and pay wages. Naturally, the final income in each period will be different but should at least reach a set minimum level to ensure continuity (a buffer can of course cover some loss periods or holidays, etc).

Capital building (which has always been my approach) does not have this performant requirement at all. Any win is build and any loss is a drop. As long as the build is increasing over time then trading is worthwhile, there does not need to be a target unless one is trading for others!
[/quote]

Now, that is enlightening. Boy, I got to tell ya, it sure does make me think. First off, Journal, since you know everything I tell you, you should know by now that I must be in the ‘capital building’ camp. Cause, I never structured my trading around the risk/reward parameters. Well, actually I did, but it was pre journal days. I remember having a strategy that went with a 2:1 setting. I let it run, and it actually worked. That’s risking 2 times the amount for 1. And I remember it was like 200 pips of a stop loss for a 100 pip gain. This of course was a swing trading scenario. Boy, I do remember it working. I definitely had more trades that ended up being winners than losers. Sure, I had buddies that told me it wasn’t too smart to do, at the time. But, it did work. I can’t remember the reasons why I ditched that though.

I don’t know. Look. All I’m doing here is thinking. Thanks to Win, and Manxx for the explanation, I’m thinking now, about it.

Another thing, because of all this recently, I think I have a bit of a problem. I’m too set in my ways, maybe too much. Meaning, I think I don’t deviate much. See, universally speaking, there is a balance to everything. I just might be a little stubborn in shutting out things that come my way, in which I discounted it in the past. I don’t want to be this way.

See, we all know that we should choose the best way that we should trade. Which is an individual thing. Which should be different from everybody else. But, how far does that go? Should there be some commonality about certain things, in trading? Well, surely there will be, because some things are smart to do and some things are just dumb to do.

Well, thanks to Manxx for explaining that there are 2 different ways to trade, that doesn’t and shouldn’t, mean that I should not try to understand any other concepts, or ideas. See, you should know by now that I don’t like following the crowd. But, I prefer principles instead. So, maybe I should be asking myself what the principle here is, of Wins point.

Let’s see. What is the principle?

-Long time of thought going on.-

I guess it’s a thing to put into place that kind of guarantees a way to have control over your trades. For a regular income. You can measure it, keep track of it, optimize it, and basically know what you should expect, by setting up this kind of templet to go by. And I guess it does not really have anything to do with what the market wants to do or not. Looks like I was definitely crossing things (earlier).

I guess I should be asking myself some questions then.
What’s more important to me, building capital or establish a regular income?
Whatever which one I pick, I would need to start small and work my way up.

Wait a minute. I need to see what I’ve already determined (I forgot about this). All I’m shooting for is a 10% increase to my account, then I transfer that out of the trading account. Well, therefore I think I’m in the business of capital building. Right? I mean, that’s all I would like. Just making 10% increases at a time. Rinsing and repeating. Working on making that at a consistent rate. Look. I’m not there, by any means, but it’s what I would like to see. Plus, I just started. I’m only 9 days into it.

Anyway. This is not to say that I couldn’t set up a templet in which I can optimize to know about when I would be getting paid. Surely that’s an idea. A lot of thinking will have to go into that. But, I’m not against it now. Now that I’ve started thinking about it.

Ok. That’s nice. Good stuff there. But, I can’t forget what the real problem I think I have. And that’s the issue of not being workable. I simply need to be able to change. I don’t want to be stubborn. I don’t want to be not open to other ideas. I should be willing to get to the bottom of something before I make any kind of judgements, for the contrary.

Alright Journal, I’m done talking now.
Risk/Reward ---- something to explore.

Mike

PS – Thanks Win, Manxx.

[MikeWolski]

Hey Journal.

Hey Mike.

Man, am I stupid. I’m talking, really stupid. But you know what? Better late than never.
I’ve seen Dennis’ thread for a long time now. And you know why? Cause I’ve always identified with the strong/weak. I’m talking since I began my journey. I was always jealous about him. It was like he took my idea. Sure, we had a different indicator to determine the outcome, but really, it was so similar.

But, I just got done pondering everything. About my trading. And I think the walls just came down.

This is nonsense!! Man…he’s successful! Journal, you know I have some sort of problem following the crowd. What a stumbling block. Anyway, I think he has the key to what I’ve been missing.

Direction!

I can’t tell you how many times I’ve read on that site that this whole thing is not a trading system. Then, sure enough, someone will come on there and basically want that very thing. It’s only a guideline. You have to come up with the method of getting in and out. And I knew this. But, why haven’t I thought about meshing this with what I do?

Well, I know that I was taught that you should have an anchor trade. That means 1 pair. So, I just never questioned that. So then, I go on to develop my method of getting in and getting out. Also my money management system. And so forth.

But, I got to thinking. I’m having some serious trouble when it’s a ranging market. Man, my system would do awesome in a trending market. But, I guess I have to wait it out then, with my one pair. Man…I’m not getting any younger. I don’t have time for this.

Then it hit me. Why don’t you just take a look at what the SW pair is doing? And well, that’s what I did. Oh, I knew it. What monster trends take place. See, I’m looking at, not only the Daily time frame, but the 4hr and 1hr also. Well, of course! Hey, when it’s trending, it trends.

I now realize that I need to change. Yeah, change the pair, that I trade. The work that Dennis does basically gives you that answer. The question ends up being, What pair trends the greatest? And the answer is the latest top SW pair. Duh.

Man, I can’t believe how stupid I am. Not only has the answer been here the whole time, but, I’ve read pretty much every single post on there. And I still didn’t see it. Well, that’s me alright. The late comer. I get things after-the-fact.

See, I think I was being prepped earlier. I know I need to change. I just can’t stay doing the same things, especially if it’s not working. Oh, I could have gone a long time trying to figure this all out. But, it’s as simple as switching to the most promising pair. Talk about something making sense.

Well, all I got to say is, don’t tell Terry. We still have yet to talk. Oh boy, don’t want that day to come, now. So Journal, that has got you up to date with me. What I plan on doing is going back and analyzing exactly how he calculates this up. I’ve read it before, but not in this mindset. I don’t know, things have changed. And I don’t know whether I should start with the latest pair, or wait for the very next one, when it comes.

I am going to get my ducks in a row. I really don’t have to change much. Other than the pair. All my charts will stay the same. All I want to do is ride these trends.

And another thing. It’s been said lately, that why nobody has documented these top SW trades. Well, that’s where I come in. Because me and you are already established. All I’m going to do is adopt this to my already existing method of trading. See? Its simple as that. Then again, everybody’s methods should be different. I’m going to use the Daily, 4hr, and 1hr time frames.

So, I guess we should see how my trades fair using this as my premise. Basically, the particular pair, and which way to go with it. Remember how much I agonized about those aspects? Geeeez. It’s been given to me on a silver platter. And I never even connected the dots.

I’m stupid.
But, as usual, I get it sometime later.

This should make a real difference in my results.

Stay tuned Journal.

Mike

[MikeWolski]

Good Morning Journal!

Good Morning Mike.
Hey buddy, you ok?
Talk to me, what’s been going on?

Yeah Journal, I don’t know. I guess you can say I’m going through a rough time, in a lot of different areas. I guess I’ll start from the beginning. Cause, when I think about it, there seems to be some sort of correlation. Originating from the physical to the mental.

Well, do you remember when it was my birthday, exactly one week ago today?

Sure do.

Yeah, well, it all started when I woke up. Remember me telling you that I felt something in my back? I thought it was this or because of that. Well, that was the beginning. I ran that day, no problem. Had a good day. Same routine and everything. That’s a run, with sit ups following. No big deal. The next day, comes, and feel my lower back again. This time a little bit more. So, following the run, I decide to nix the sit ups. Cause I’m thinking that’s the cause. Ok. Really. No big deal. The soreness always seemed to subside.

Well, Thursday comes. I’m feeling it just a little bit more. Same routine, and still no more sit ups. I’m still fine. Things always equal out throughout the day. Meanwhile, I guess I didn’t mention that I still tack on a little more to the run. Actually I think I’ve been running a little bit more than the Kaizen way. Cause I’ve always felt that I could run and run and run! Like, why not? All good. Right?

Well, it was Friday morning that was the first time I felt my lower, right side back ( top of my hip area), when I ran. I’m talking the entire time I ran. I mean, I made it. But not without feeling it. Was definitely uncomfortable. Well, I think that might have did it. And at this time I’m a little over 2 miles, for the distance. Then the decline happened, since then. I couldn’t bring myself to run on Saturday. I figured I would take 2 days off. You know, for rest and recovery.

Well, over the weekend, man, it got worse. I’m talking to the point that I had a hard time walking. And if I relaxed in a chair, getting out of it would be painful. It wasn’t pretty. I was done for. So, I limited any kind of getting up as much as possible. Of course, I did do stuff. Like, we have to do our shopping, for the week. Getting in and out of the car was pretty tough. It’s simply painful. The whole time I’ve been trying to figure out if I’m helping matters by being mobile or not. Cause, when it comes to muscles, inactivity is not always a good thing. You have to find the right balance between resting (healing), and strengthening (mobility).

Needless to say, I have to heal from this. Before I can strengthen back up to the point of no pain. Boy, it’s been a long time since I had to deal with something like this. I’ve experienced a serious back problem before (in the 90’s). Talk about taking forever for something to heal. But, that was the entire back. No brainer. This is something a little different. Like I explained, this is pretty much at the top of my right butt cheek. Just right of center. Technically, I think it’s the hip. But that’s where it starts and the pain will travel down through my butt cheek and go down the back of my leg. And I’ve been trying to determine if it’s really muscle, or a nerve. Man, I don’t know. It could be a muscle that is pinching a nerve nearby, or something like that. I don’t know.

I take a lot of IB prophen. That helps a lot. And when I just lay down, I don’t feel it at all. It’s just when I get up, forget it. Painful. But yesterday, I kind of think it’s getting better. I mean, I do still take the dog out for a walk, but only 2 times, instead of 3. The pain is not crippling, but is there. Some walks feel better than others. So, bottom line is, that I can’t run anymore (for now), and shorter dog walks.

I was also wondering if my diet had anything to do with this. See, I haven’t been eating much. When I say I’ve been limiting my portion sizes, I have been. Yes, I have lost weight. I’m very happy about that. I handled it on both sides. Exercising and less intake. At the same time. I mean, if you want to get there, that’s what you need to do, right? Well, it might have caught up to me. That was 6 straight weeks of hard work. I think I did good. But, I just might have gone over board. This is just the first time that I encountered a problem. And, of course, I have to adjust now. Have no choice, really. I probably shouldn’t have finished out the week. But, the thing is, I only ran one day in some sort of pain though. This snuck up on me before I realized that a real problem was coming.

Well Journal, this kind of affected me mentally also. I mean, when the walls come down, they just want to crumble all around. I had a bad day of trading yesterday. I threw out all kinds of rules and guidelines. Things are changing. I know I can be dangerous, to myself. But, I’m trying. My mental state was not good yesterday.

Look. I don’t want to walk through all of what I’ve been going through, mentally. But, I have been thinking a lot. Well, what I’ve been doing is trying not to think. Kind of like when I go to bed, I just say to myself (my brain), “Figure it out and I’ll stay out of the way, while I sleep.”

I will convey to you, Journal, something that I think might be true about myself. I think this is more of a hindrance that constructive.

I’m too structured.
I think I’m too organized. I’m a perfectionist. Everything has to be in it’s place. I’m too methodological. If things don’t go according to plan, then I’m done for. I mean, this is the market! Who can possibly bottle something up about it and make it work accordingly?

You know, I bet you those who’s minds are pliable, creative, flexible, are the one’s who excel here. Seriously. I’m the opposite. Things have to be in order, for me. If you would look at my house, you won’t find anything out of place. Everything belongs in it’s spot! I’m sorry. But, that’s how I like it. I won’t be able to relax in my house if it’s not in order. I guess you can call it OCD.

But the thing is, I realize that about myself. And I also realize that the market doesn’t follow any kind of order. Well, any kind of predictable order, anyway. It likes change, probably more than order. Look. I know that the market is made up of many, many participants, which will result in numerous different results of actions taken on it. Therefore, it isn’t particularly correct to think it’s like a being, doing what it wants. We humans like to think that way, about something. Having it’s own mind.

Anyway. Here I am wanting structure, and wanting to follow something. Where’s the element of change in all of this? I’m not making room for change. Look. I found a good system, physically speaking, for my body. It was working just great. Then comes a real problem and I get thrown off. Then I’m done for. It’s over. Well, I tend to feel like that’s how it is, anyway.

On the one hand, I like the idea of having a good system in place. Isn’t that what we are supposed to do? Rinse and repeat? Get good at it? Perfect just one thing? Start small and work your way up.

But, on the other hand, I do like the idea of change. I like new things. I can change.
I don’t know.

Another thing that keeps cropping up in my mind lately is this.
What is working?
or
What works?

Honestly, I don’t quite know what to do with that, but it’s been floating around in my mind. Surely, I’m not some kind of psychic or medium. Or someone with insight into matters. By far. But, sometimes you shouldn’t dismiss thoughts. So, I thought it would be best to, at least, make it known. And I don’t want to forget this subject.

Well, let’s go there a little. I remember writing this down on my wall in the beginning. But got erased. What I’m talking about here is progress. Surely, every kind of venture, or something you want to get good at must have that element in it. Am I making progress? Am I finding out what works and what doesn’t work? It’s kind of tough to determine that when you’re playing in such a changing environment (the market). It’s seems to me that I’m trying to find one thing to work in any kind of market. Boy, that has run across my mind many times. And to boot, I’m trying to perfect that! That might just be impossible. See, I know some different market conditions. There’s the risk-on, risk-off scenario. I’ve bottled up the market that way. Anyone who knows me knows that. That’s why I’ve stuck with the one and only pair to trade. Which now I think is a mistake. Cause that can change on a dime. Plus, you don’t know how long risk-on or risk-off will last.

In fact, Dennis made that very point, when he’s repeatedly said how the JPY traverses between first and last very often. All that is risk-off changing drastically, and unpredictably.

Anyway. I’m running out of steam here. I do want to bring up some changes to my trading. You probably remember how excited I was to realize what a great tool Dennis has been doing. And yep, I still believe that. Well, I’m not going to follow it exactly. What I mostly got out of that is this. The pair that is the SW trade, I’m going to trade. And that’s cool. Different a lot of the time. But, not necessarily in the prescribed direction.

Look. I’m not making any hard rules here, other than that will be the pair for me to trade. This will tell me one simple thing. Which pair to trade. Now, the direction, will be subjective. See, right now, the latest SW trade is the NZD/JPY. Well, as Dennis has instructed and warned, this is something to be careful with. Just because it’s set up in which the JPY is the stronger, and the NZD is the weaker shouldn’t necessarily mean I should trade it in that manner.

This is given me the extremes. And extremes change. This is a good start for me. I can’t possibly think that I will find the best pair that has the greatest change taking place. Which will inadvertently mean the best trend to get on. But, it’s definitely better than just sticking with the AUD/JPY. Man, that was almost impossible, I think. There are better trending pairs than that.

Now, when the JPY is not in the SW top trade, then I think I probably will trade the pair the way it started. Cause he’s proven how much real estate those end up traveling. And that can only mean some kind of profit, especially when I am following the trend.

---

Ok. I’m back now. Speaking of that. I am definitely feeling better. Just took the dog out for a walk. Not really much pain. Thank God. So, I think I’m on the mend. Looking for a healing. Then getting back to some kind of running. And exercising. I must. I must. I must.

Alright. Where was I?
Well, that’s what I got so far on my trading. I have the pair to trade. Looks like the direction will be determined when it happens. Believe me, I want to trade the already determined direction. Which would have been short the NZD/JPY. But, and I was right, this pair has turned. Well, on the 4hr chart anyway. I went north with it. And it seems like the one guy pipphil, I think his name is, seen it yesterday also. It basically rocketed north. I kind of seen it coming because there was no more trending lower.

And I’ll tell you something else. I made a mistake yesterday. Towards the end of day, I left my north running trade (NZD/JPY) to run. But, I thought I had a stop loss set. It was during dinner time. I seen it drop a good bit. But then said to myself, “Oh well, my stop loss is there, and I won’t lose much, like only 5 pips or so.” Well, this morning, the first thing I do is check with Dennis and see what the new pair is going to be. I didn’t even open up the charts until that was all settled. So then, I see that nothing changed. I was like, “Ok. Well, I’m sure my trade is over and let’s just see what’s going on.”

To my surprise…I was still in it! And to boot…it went up! I was pretty stunned. Man, I forgot I took off my stop loss. Well, I’m not kidding anybody. It was a mistake. Finally, one in my favor.

Well, I guess I can’t take a picture. My ‘sun’ is gone. Must have to reboot the computer. Oh well. Well, let me get this out. I do have much work to do. Will keep you in the loop, Journal.

Mike

[MikeWolski]

Hey Journal.
Talk a look.

This is the latest pic. We only need to see the bottom left (1hr), and bottom middle (4hr). This is how the week transpired so far. You can see, on the 1hr, that at the open and during Asia was the last leg down. Good thing I was sleeping during this time. And the play is mostly up from there. Anyway, on the 1hr, you can see the blue dotted line going up was Monday’s End of Day. So, while I was sleeping last night, unbeknownst to me I was making money, cause 8 hours later I seen it. But then, this morning I took profit. It’s the 3rd candle from the end. The largest doji candle. I jumped real close to 73.300. I bought it at 72.770.

Look. All I did was erase some bad trading from yesterday. I think I’m going to cool it for a while now. I kind of have a feeling that the SW top trade will be changing soon. I want to start fresh.

Alright Journal, talk to you later.

Mike

[Sakhr_Zafir]

it is essential to practice for sufficient time with the demo trading account. It is good to see that many people are taking interest in the forex market and beginners are trying to start trading after acquiring good trading knowledge with demo trades. Best of luck for your upcoming journey in the forex.

[MikeWolski]

Good Morning Journal!

Good Morning Mike.

Well, we have a lot to talk about. As you know Journal, I’ve been going through a lot of changes. It’s kind of funny, how I read something lately, that seems to be directly applying to me. I forget exactly what it is was all about, and in whatever context it was, but nevertheless, it’s a truth. When you start something new, you go through an excitement phase. Whether it’s a new habit, or a venture of some kind, or whatever. Something new. It makes sense. But then, down the road a little bit, there comes a dip in the road. I’ve always known about this, but boy, this seems to be more of a surety, moreso than just a possibility.

We all know what we’re talking about here. The novelty has worn off. Reality is settling in. Basically, the high has vanished. And the truth is, generally speaking, there will be those who jump and get back to what is more of a normality to them than a continuance. On the other hand, you will have those who persevere through it and become better because of it. "What doesn’t kill you makes you stronger".

Here we go. For me, I should have seen it coming. It started with getting hurt because of my running. I went 6 straight weeks, doing so good. I ran 35 times. Farther and farther I went, every time. When I look back on it, the only thing that I think I did wrong was not stretching afterwards. Surely, always beforehand. But towards the end, I gave up on the stretching part after. I don’t know, I guess it could have been the distance also. I’m talking like on a daily basis. Maybe too much? Then again, maybe it was how often I ran. 6 days a week. That might have been too much. It’s hard to tell exactly what it was, that did it.

In any case, that put me out of commission (yeah, and I thought it would be for only a couple days). Well, I don’t know if it was a coincidence or what, but that seemed to be at the same time that my trading was suffering. I was not making any money. Losing was the only thing happening. It wasn’t working. I wasn’t getting anywhere. Therefore, psychologically speaking, I’m starting to come apart. Look. Things are falling apart.

Presently, as I am writing this, I’m not past all of this yet, but I am trying to come out of it. And I’m sure you realize Journal, that I haven’t been too excited about journaling lately either. It’s just not easy when you’re in the middle of trying to figure stuff out. I’m talking, physically, mentally, trading wise, even my whole purpose here while everyone is off working.

I’ll tell you another depressing thing that I’ve been doing lately. Well, to begin with, I did have a thought that just maybe I might be a writer, deep inside. So, I’m like, wondering what I should do about it. Well, this is what I did. Since I have written very much of a journal here, I went back to the beginning and copied and pasted everything to a word document. Wow. Let me tell you, I wrote a lot. It’s 431 pages worth. That was exhausting. Talk about a lot of nonsense. Well, I then subdivided all of that up into 3 different sections. One word document for all the charts, one for all the technical talk (about those charts), and another word document consisting of any other talk (psychological or personal).

I don’t know. The only real thing I came up with, about all of that was, it’s a bunch of nonsense. It’s of no real value. Well, to anyone else anyway. And yes, it did accomplish one thing. It was fun to do. And it was a personal release of mainly talking it all out. I did learn a lot about myself. Yeah, I’m pretty stupid. I mean, it is what it is. And it’s ok. I’m an open book. I realized that just when I think I know something, all I have to do is read a little bit farther, and see that it didn’t work out. The road is long and hard. I guess I’m just wondering if and when I will get there. Like, I guess it would be worth it if one of these days I actually will become successful. You know, make some money, on a consistent basis. Then you could see a before and an after. And maybe then someone could actually learn something from me.

I don’t know Journal, don’t mind me. I’m just getting out some thoughts about some of the things that I do. Well, I know one thing, I won’t be posting up any stupid charts anymore. And concerning my journal, I think I will stick to the psychological matters. We’ll call it, more interesting material.

Well, let’s see. What else have I been realizing? Well, concerning my trading, I think I’ve figured out what is working. And again, it’s what we all know, but never really know. If you hold on to trades for a longer time period, that works. Look. I could be deceiving myself, once again. I mean, have I just been lucky lately? In any case, if there’s a trend developing on the daily time frame, all you have to do is get in small, and just stay in it, while it continually confirms that way, all the way on up. Well, so far so good, for me anyway.

See, Dennis’ thread is awesome. And the way I’ve been handling it lately, is this. We all know that it’s been ranging for such a long time now. We’ve had basically 2 sides to it. The strong ones (JPY, CAD, CHF, USD). And the weak ones (AUD,NZD,EUR,GBP). Well, the way I see it, (I’ve been contemplating wanting to talk to him about this) I am more interested in seeing change occur. And the only possible change that can occur in this market sentiment is to see the strong currencies become more weak, and weak currencies become more strong. Which should produce some kind of pips.

So, I’ve been having my eye on the CAD, and the JPY, to become weak. And the EUR, and the AUD, to become more strong. So, to be more precise, I’ve had some good luck with going long EUR/CAD. And thanks to Dennis, for his weekend post, long AUD/JPY. I mean, all you have to do is look at the daily chart on both of those pairs. (Trust me, I’m not going to put it up, that’s nonsense) But, there’s a turn taking place. Well, guess what? All you have to do is put on a small amount (1k worth) and just let it ride.

It seems to be working. And that’s all I want to find out here. What works. And every now and then, when you’re in some good profit, and then a good dip occurs, well, why not put on another 1k size?

Look. I don’t know for sure that it’s all that. It’s just working for me, more than anything else is, at the moment. But, I do think that it confirms the notion that the longer time frames are better to trade than anything shorter. We’ll see where this leads me. All I’m doing now is trying to get out of a hole that I dug. Boy, I tell ya, it’s at a snails pace though.

Hey, whenever Dennis’ numbers start pointing to a new trend, well then, that’s when I start changing it up. It’s going to take some time to fine tune my strategy, but needless to say, I start with him and his work. Which I am grateful for! Plus, I do realize that all of that is mostly related to the daily time frame. Which only spells holding on to the trades for hours and hours. Maybe some day I will start saying, for days and days.

In the meantime, what do I do with myself? How do I stay productive?
Well, I do have to report to you, Journal, that I have started running again. I can’t be idle anymore. I started back up yesterday. Sure, feeling some pain, but it’s not getting any worse. As long as I can do it, I need to. Then this morning, in the shower, I had an epiphany. Why don’t you use the eliptical that we have? See, I am stupid. But old school also. I just have always thought that you can’t get any better than running. You know, like the way they used to do it, outside. Well, we’ve had this eliptical contraption downstairs for some time now. She used to use that a lot. Well, I’m going to be doing that from now on. It should be better on the hips. The pounding that my body goes through, outside, just might be more alleviated this way. Plus I can keep the cardio going.

Ok. That’s nice. What else can I do to stay productive? Well, I had an idea. I recently remembered that I’ve always been interested in economics. I remember thinking that if I was starting out all over, that I would have gone to college and learned that. I do love macroeconomics. Well, why not? I can educate myself. Not that it will directly affect the way I trade or anything. But, maybe develop more of an insight into how the countries’ money flows.

Hey, that’s just incredibly interesting to me. See, I don’t want to learn just anything. I want it to somehow apply to something. And I’m in the business of currencies. There’s some kind of correlation there. Maybe I can keep tabs on what the central banks all plan on doing. Hey, just look at Turkey. Man, I’m sure there are a lot of economists that seen that coming. And back it up to what happened a few years ago with those European countries that found trouble. Greece? Etc…

That’s stuff that I want to know. Again. It’s not directly related to my trading, but would be good to know. I guess I would like to fully understand why these countries find trouble. Macroeconomics is so incredibly interesting to me! I’m sorry. But that’s who I am.

Alright Journal, I’m done here.
Thanks for listening.
You’re a good listener.

Mike

[Challenge11]

I have been through the stage you’re in so I do emphasize with all of the things thats going through your mind right now although I haven’t quite reached consistency yet.

Just a little bit of advice, you have so much more to learn and that much more to master !!
I know it is depressing to realize that you’re so far from the destination still despite everything you’ve done and given but you must study the right things ! and do not dwell on garbage.

So what are the right things ?
I see that you struggle to define what a trend and what a pullback is ?

Go back to dow theory
series of higher high and higher low is an uptrend
series of lower high and lower low is a downtrend

that’s just the beginning.
now if you knew this was an uptrend where would you buy ?
if you knew this was a downtrend where would you sell ?

remember how previous support acts as a resistance
and previous resistance acts as a support ?

do your own exploration from the little nuggets I have given here.
this is the foundation of everything …
you have to learn to see these things yourself

when you actually start to see these intricate web of relations it will slowly start to make a whole lot of sense.
trading is hard, I might add “extremely” hard.
there’re buyers and sellers at any given moment at any given TF.
there’s so much action and possibly so more killing going on out in the battlefield despite the seemingly peaceful demeanor so don’t be fooled ! study the right things.
knowledge will be your only friend in the battlefield
what you’re doing now is gambling
until you figure all of this out halt trading all together
but when you have learnt to see these things trade in small units to master what you have observed
learning to trade is like a marathon not a sprint !
if you keep on learning I’m sure the day will come…

[WinPsych]

Hi Challenge11, you can see from Mike’s last post that he has already begun learning an established system. When he has mastered that system and understood exactly what questions the system addresses, the next obvious step would be to use parts of his own systems and previous experience in order to provide a custom fit + a little book knowledge.

You can also see from his last post that he is collating his thoughts, he is searching for clarity so that he can then focus on specific tasks and get to the heart of the matter.

What he is doing is part of progression, Mike is the type of guy, (_from what I have read in this journa_l),that when he finally gets it… it’s over, consistency city!!!

Win

[peterma]

I don’t know. The only real thing I came up with, about all of that was, it’s a bunch of nonsense. It’s of no real value.

Mike’s Journal, have you ever encountered the writings and thoughts of one of the greatest philosophers in history, his words still help shape thinking over 700 years later.

Quotes such as “If the highest aim of a captain were to preserve his ship, he would keep it in port forever”.

Reflecting back on his many words he ,Thomas Aquinas, commented “all that I have written seems like straw.”.

Sometimes only the author doesn’t see the value.

[MikeWolski]

Good Morning Journal!

Good Morning Mike.
How you doing stranger?

I’m good Journal. Everything is ok. I guess I just needed some time, away.
Don’t get me wrong, I’ve been busy. Very busy. But, in regards to journaling, that kind of took a back seat. So, I guess now would be a good time to catch you up on all of the many things that I’ve been up to. Many changes. It’s kind of like I’ve been morphing. Being transformed into what I really want to be, when I grow up. Let’s see if I can bring it in.

First off, if you can believe it, I still haven’t gotten a decision on whether or not the unemployment compensation will be accepted. I mean, I have been getting paid every two weeks, since July 1st. I have almost 3 grand from that, in the bank. But, do you think that I will touch that before it gets the final approval? No way. Cause I would have to give it all right back, if it doesn’t go through. I’ve called them (even though they told me to wait, for the decision), only to find out that the examiner hasn’t decided yet. I don’t know what’s the hold up, but, I have to tell you, it’s nerve racking.

A couple days ago I had to attend the mandatory 2 hour class, for the U.C. program. They make you jump through hoops in order to collect unemployment. It was ok. I didn’t even care what everyone would think of me dressing up in a shirt and tie. That’s just what I wear, every single day, since July 2nd (Monday). Oh well. At least I looked like the instructor did. He was a nice guy. There was maybe 20 people there. Oh, and he asked if any one here was a veteran. Like he is. Well, I was the only one to raise my hand. And so, he asked me about that. All I said was that I was in the Army, and that it was a long time ago. –cou '86 gh– (for 6 yrs)

Well, I didn’t do that cough, but now that I think about it, it would’ve been funny. Oh well. But honestly, I didn’t get much out of that class. See, that whole point is employers’ trying to find employees. And vise versa. It is a good thing. They will do anything to get you a job. There’s even schooling available if you want, like for a specific field. But, where do I fit in when all I want is my own business? See, I just cannot reconcile that whole thing, for my life. I’ve done my time with an employer. It’s time to evolve. I’m just hoping that I can get compensated for these next 6 months. We’ll see what happens.

Moving on. Well, I still wake up at 3:45. I stretch, exercise, and stretch again. I’m working that elliptical. It’s ok I guess. Surely not the same as running, but what can I do. I’m hoping to get back to running one of these days, but until my body cooperates, I shouldn’t. I will have some good days, where I don’t feel any kind of soreness, and I will have some bad days. Something always seems to manifest itself, whether it’s my lower back, or my hips. But, I refuse to let it keep me out of the game. I do understand the difference between being hurt and being sore. Trish sometimes gets all bent out of shape when she sees me walking funny (we always go for early morning walks with Ben). I will get the third degree about over doing it. But honestly, I don’t think that I am. She just cares, that’s all.

Also, I’m not eating much, still. Oh yeah, I’ve dropped some poundage. But then, you get to that point where you level off. After the first 10, it just gets harder to continue it. Well, at that pace anyway. One of these days I’ll take another picture of myself. But, I want to make sure that there will be a difference. You know, the before and after ones. Cause, I do plan on going down pretty far. I’m mostly concerned with the balance between how much to eat - to how much to exercise. See, too less of eating is not good for the body when you’re burning off a lot. It’s a balancing act. All I know is that I am going down. I just hope that I can stay healthy in the meantime. And not hurt.

Ok. That’s nice. What else. Well, I did mention this last time. And boy, am I on it. This is my idea. I want to incorporate fundamentals in my trading. Mostly, because I enjoy it. Look. I know there are many ways to go about trading. And I guess it all breaks down into the 2 main categories. Technical and Fundamental. But, I’m discovering how I want to go about it. See, in the short term of trading, you invariably need to go about it the technical way. But the further out you go, to me, it only makes sense to know the fundamentals.

And given this fact, I do want to know why the market is moving. Sure, we all know that the fundamentals are already built into what the price is. That argument has been going on forever. I have even agreed with the big dogs here in BabyPips that it just might not be that important to know why price has moved the way it did. Man, I’ve pondered that, deeply. What’s the sense, in knowing why? It just does. And you can measure it, keep track of it, monitor it, watch price do what it does (that’s technicals). Believe me, I can agree with that. It seems like we really don’t need to why. The fundamental aspect of it. I mean, after all, isn’t it all nothing but making the profit? You make the profit, then go home. Do that consistently, and you’re good. I can understand that. Manage your money properly, pay your bills, and build your business accordingly.

Well, of course I plan on doing that. But, I just want to get to know my business better. I do want to know why things are moving the way they are moving. I don’t want to be short sighted, and even ignorant of what’s really going on in the realm of currencies. See, follow me on this. We’re talking about currency. The price of it. And how it’s changing. Not only that, but it’s the worlds’ currencies compared to one another. And it all takes place on the foreign exchange market. I know, Mr. Obvious here. But then, you have to see what’s really going on here. Us retail traders are really nobody in this game. We don’t make one little difference in what happens in that market. Therefore, I want to find out who the players are, and what they are doing and thinking, that causes price to move. And guess what, it’s not all technical. I think a lot of it is fundamental.

(Boy, this is reminding me of one particular person, who I look up to majorly in here. Gandalf. That would be Peterma. I remember, a few years ago, him developing a trading system revolving around fundamentals. See, he’s smart. Definitely an old trader, who’s been around the business since dirt has been.)

Look. I’ve been doing very much reading. And I’m far from done. But this is what I got so far (boy, I definitely need more wall space).

Besides the commercial businesses, that use the foreign exchange market just to exchange their currencies, it’s the central bankers that have the most affect on where price wants to go. They are the big money. So, well, why not explore all about those central banks? And I did. I got all 8 of those web sites. See, right now, I just started with the 8 most common currencies. One of these days I would like to explore others, like the EM countries.

Anyway. Let’s keep with the big. Ok. Now. Class. Raise your hand if you know who the central banks have to answer to?
(Peterma…put your hand down. Give the young folks a chance.)
I’ll give you a hint. What’s the entity that is called “The Mother of all Central Banks.”

…
You…in the back…go ahead.
Very good young man. You must have done your homework.
It’s the Bank For International Settlements
All Central Banks work under the umbrella of this entity. They are headquartered in Basel Switzerland. They supervise the money transmission around the world. They make sure the regional monetary policies are implemented accordingly. And let me tell you, they have a big balance sheet. But, they do not loan out money to anyone. That would fall under the jurisdiction of the International Monetary Fund. They can help out the struggling central banks.

Look. I’m no expert. I’m just scratching the surface. There’s so much to learn. But, you have to start somewhere right? And everything that I’m researching has to do with money, more precisely, currency. So, I’ll briefly tell you what I’ve been uncovering.

- How does the central banks use their foreign currency reserves?
- What happens, economically, to a country when their currency appreciates, and depreciates?
- What are the factors that influence the exchange rates?
- I have the websites that address each countries’ economic stats. For example, the B.E.A ( Bureau of Economic Analysis) for the US.
- Of course, the websites to the 8 central banks.

Then, I compiled quiet many economic indicators to the top 8 currencies. You should see my excel spread sheet. We’re talking from Current Account balances to inflation %'s. I compared them all. Well, it sure was fun uncovering all that data. But then, only yesterday, I found the website that I wish I would have in the beginning. Trading Economics. Geeez. Well, that makes life a whole lot easier. Then again, see, they say that Canada’s CPI is at 3.0%. Well, yes, that technically is correct. But, if you go to their website ( I forget if it’s the central bank one or ‘Statistics Canada’ one) they explain that the central bank doesn’t go by just one of those inflation indicators. They actually have 3. Let me remember. CPI common, CPI medium, CPI trim. But, the total CPI is at 3.0%, but those three are like around 2.0%. Anyway, the point here is that it’s good to go to the source for the information. Like to confirm those figures that this website has readily available.

It’s gonna take me some time to get all my ducks in a row. This is a MASSIVE undertaking.
Look. All the information is available for what the central bankers want to look at. Between all of the economic indicators that come out, all of the speeches, reports, and even what OECD researches, I can look at also. You know, the world has been pushing for transparency, and that’s what the central banks have been doing.

Now look, I haven’t completely fallen off the band wagon. This is stuck in my mind also. Once I believe I have some kind of system up, and organized in a way to utilize the important information, I want to compare that to what the market does. Hey, wouldn’t it be great, even in hindsight, to get some idea of why price moved the way it did? I mean, I know that’s a daunting task. Who really knows why it moved the way it did. But, then again, what are the central bankers thinking when they trade? Why are they buying up foreign sovereign debt?

Well, in any case, they will leave footprints, in the market. And that’s where we see it, in the technical realm. Nobody moves the market like they do. So, what do we know then? Trends. Changes. The flow. How about the strong, and the weak? I just think it would be smarter to uncover some of the answers to the question of WHY.

Ok. Enough of that nonsense. In the meantime, I will just continue to piece it all together. Needless to say, I’m enjoying every bit of that process!! Nothing in the world is more exciting to me than this stuff. NOTHING!

Now, concerning my trading. Well, I’ve made money every day this past week. Not trading today cause it’s about over. Months end. And, all I’ve been doing is trying to get my account back to where I started. But, before we start here, all I’m going to say is that I haven’t adopted any kind of strategy. Forget that. I beat myself up way to long concerning that. It’s not worth it. I’m not going to box myself in, just yet, and follow something. Cause whatever I’ve tried to do, just doesn’t work. I’m done with rules, regulations, stops, profit targets, the such.

For now, anyway.

This is what’s been happening. Journal, you might remember me telling you, one of the last things that I said regarding my trading was this. I need to find out what works. Well, in a way, I must have. Because, and I honestly don’t know exactly how many days it’s been, why every time I’ve gotten in I’ve ended up with profit?

Look. This is what happened. I crashed and burned (in my mind anyway). I traded and traded consistently all the way down to $450.00. From $500, started Aug 1st. I’m talking, every single trade was a loser. That’s many, many trades. All the way down. But then, I had a turn around. I traded over and over, all the way back up. Like I said, trade after trade was successful. And all I had in my mind was to get back to that 500 starting point. Nothing more. Every trade, all the way back up, started out with 1k position. Sometimes I added on to it, but never more than 3 sizes (3k). Of course, I only added size when it was in some good profit. Was like a confirmation that I was correct about the trend.

The most I ever made in a day was like $5.00. But see, day after day that adds up. Most days I would only make $2 or $3. All I did was watch my account grow one dollar at a time. And when your only getting like a couple cents for every pip, that means there was many pips gotten. Basically, what I’m saying is that it was a long journey back to where I started from. Cause, it wasn’t like it was all on one shot. It was like a real accomplishment. Or…I guess…I’ve gotten lucky on a consistent basis.

If I can boil it all down, to finding out what works, I would say this.

• Keep the trades running longer.
• Stack the odds by finding the best pair to trade. No more than 2 pairs picked.
• Start out with a very small position size, and if it shows a confirmation of the correct way, add more.
• Don’t watch the market. Keep busy and check in every once in a while.

When I see myself trading, I’m more of a discretionary trader. Well, regarding when things worked so far. And I know how dangerous this is, because nothing really can be examined, measured, analyzed.

This is what I found myself doing, every morning. I would check in with Dennis’ S/W table, copy it onto my excel table, then go to my NetDania site (in which I can quickly see which currency trends are taking place) and then pick one pair (one time I had 2 pairs) that I will trade. Then, and only then, do I open up my broker and wait for the right time to get in. This happens between 5am - 7am. Which is a couple hours before the US session starts. But, I will be out of the trade sometime before London closes, just before lunch time here.

I don’t know. All I can say is that it worked for me that way. It seems to be that when I relax more from the game, things work out better.

All I know is that I’m extremely happy that I got my account back up to where it was at the beginning of the month. And now I have a chance to work the other side of things, the profit side. Let me say that again. I have the chance to, anyway. I can’t assume anything in the market. Will all this continue? I don’t know. But surely I shouldn’t assume it will. I’ll just take it one trade at a time.

I know the big dogs should be coming back from the summer break. All I want to do is watch what happens. Cause, I heard, that the central bank traders watch the market more than trade it. So, why wouldn’t I want to do that also?

Another thing. All that nonsense up there is stuff that every trader has heard to do and knows. -Be patient.
-Take only the best opportunities.
-Trade higher time frames.
Etc…
But, there’s a difference between knowing stuff, and really finding out what works for yourself.
There must be some disconnect between what you know in your brain, and what you end up doing. And looks like the only way it comes is through experience. You just got to feel the pain before you learn something.

Journal, all I want to do is learn stuff before I die. Hopefully I am learning something.
Speaking of that, I’ve spent way too much time in here. I got more learning to do. I’m trying to piece together these fundamental aspects. Of course, along with the technicals. Cause, I think I beat that horse up too much. Time for some real knowledge. Whether or not I come up with something good, at least I will enjoy this road that I’m going down.

Mike

BTW Journal…I’m contemplating coming up with a separate thread dealing with strictly fundamentals. But in a way that correctly connects to our trading. Like, effectively. Not just nonsense thrown around that doesn’t correlate directly with our trades.
I’m thinking on that.
We’ll see.

[MikeWolski]

Good Morning Journal!

Good Morning Mike.

Well, I figure I will catch you up on things. I know it’s been awhile. Plus, I miss typing.
Needless to say, I’ve been busy. Learning, discovering, figuring things out.

So, from the top. Physical fitness…check. Been doing good, as usual. Still getting up early. Stretching. Running on that contraption downstairs. Breaking a sweat every single time. 24 minutes at a time. And then more stretching afterwards. So, I’m feeling pretty good. Still doing good on the intake side also. Definitely keeping the portion sizes small. For the most part, I’m always hungry. That’s how I know I’m doing good. Believe me, I know this is such a dangerous road to go down, for the long haul. Cause the body will eventually will win out.

I’m thinking the next phase I will need to get into is watching exactly what I eat. Boy, do you know how hard it is to stay away from meat? Honestly, I don’t think I can ever give up my burgers. Man, that reminds me of what I used to tell the guys at work. " I wouldn’t be upset if every chicken left the earth. I can honestly say that for sweets also. But, if the cow and cattle left the earth, I wouldn’t be able to live." It’s the truth. Somethings I can live without…some things I can’t. Well, that’s probably the only thing, for me. There’s nothing like a juicy, handmade, topped with anything and everything, cheese, double stacker burger. On a lightly toasted brioche bun. Oh man. Just kill me now.

Ok. That’s nice. What else is going on.

Well, as for where I last left off at, I can’t, and won’t, disregard fundamentals. So, the angle that I’m taking is with the Emerging Markets. More specifically with Emerging Asia. Probably the most exciting thing that has happened to me lately…well, I’m actually saving the most exciting thing for last…is the report that I got from OECD. I get their email updates. And when I seen this report, all I’m doing is writing the most important stuff down on my wall. Called Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India 2018 Update. Man, I should open up a thread on this information that I’m learning (kind of reminds me of what Manxx is doing on Europe…which is definitely interesting also).

But, I need to know something before I can entertain in that arena. Basically, I need to get all my ducks in a row first. But, we’ll see what happens in the future. The bottom line is that I want to know what it going on in regards to the Emerging Markets. It is fascinating to me. Especially with China. Man, I’ve always thought they should be kept in focus. Look what happened back in 2016 (I think). When they did a ‘one off’ move with devaluing their currency. It rocked the world markets. Look. I can’t fully explain the details about that move right now, and that’s why I got to get educated about it all. I do believe they are a sleeping giant, in the global perspective. Sometimes I wonder why they are considered to be an Emerging Market economy. They seem to be such a big player, but not enough to be called a developed nation.

I remember when they got accepted into the SDR (Special Drawing Rights) of the IMF. Again, I can’t fully explain that stuff, but it’s something like the world’s biggest currencies that have their own special exchange rate. And how they relate to each other. Anyway, it was a big deal. They are trying so hard to replace the USD, as the world’s currency, with theirs.

All of this is very, very interesting to me. Know why? Cause, if anyone thinks with the sense of the future in mind, I think the Emerging Market economies need paying attention to. So therefore, I want to know.

Ok. Well, that’s what I’m most preoccupied with lately. And I’m enjoying every single second of it.

Well, I want to catch you up on how I trade nowadays. This is pretty monumental for me. (See, I did tell you about it last week, but everything got erased. I was pretty upset at the time. I accepted it and just let it go.) Hopefully this time I won’t mess it up. As long as I don’t try to paste another thread, I should be good.

Alright Journal, here goes. There is only one way I will trade, from now on. Without a doubt, this is my ‘Ah ha’ moment. This is me. This is the only way, period. I don’t even care if Terry would show up and yell at me. Nothing will change my mind about this. I’m done figuring out how to trade. This will work. Time will bear me out. Ready? All I’m going to do is give it to you straight. No explanations. Cause I’m done explaining stuff.

- Summary -
Mastergunner’s methodology.

• Daily time frames only.
• Portfolio of trades continually running.
• Trend following.
• Continually in the market.
• No taking profits.
• No stop losses.
• Reinvest profits.

Now, I know I just got done saying that I’m not going to explain anything. But, this is a must.

I seriously think this is the secret to trading. Ready?
I’m not going to take profits anymore.

Some smart person in here, and I’ve always known he was right, but he always says, “It’s all about where you exit, that matters.” That is true. But think about it. What gets us into trouble is trying to consistently get out with a profit. That is a hindrance. And what I mean about a hindrance is that if you want to see your account grow, you must let it ride.

The only time I’ve been able to see my account grow is only by just letting it ride. That is the nuts and bolts of Mastergunner’s methodology. The great thing about it is that you don’t have to be confined to just one pair. For that matter, one currency even. That is how the market moves anyway. There is a pile on in the forex market. When one currency is strong, it stems across the board. Same goes with the weakest currency. When they sink, it stems across every one else.

But, my point is. In order to see some returns, consistently, you must be riding out the daily time frame trends. It is that simple. They last long. And they produce ample pips.

I think it’s most prudent to be diversified also. The sheer nature of being in with all of them that are trending, on the daily time frame, produces a buffer, to the balance. You just can’t be too heavy on only one particular currency. So, in effect, all I’m doing is counting on the direction to continue. Those big players who move the market are not changing their minds on a daily basis. There is a flow taking place. And guess what? It’s on the daily time frames. Probably even on the weekly and monthly also.

So, I’m not concerned with taking profits. The only thing I will be concerned with is if it’s trending on the daily, am I in it? And when those changes occur, will I adjust? Therefore, that will mean that someone else is going to trend. And that’s where I want to be positioned. It’s simple. And you will only see it being reflected over time, in your balance.

The hardest thing about this is getting into these already running pairs. But, luckily, we are seeing a bend in those running currencies. Like, how many times have Dennis told us, and showed us, the 2 sides of the field. Half were strong, and half were weak. For most of the summer. Well, that’s changing now.

I took advantage of the GBP, strong now. And the JPY weak. But, there’s more that’s going on though. If you count, there’s 24 pairs that are trending, on the daily time frame. Well, I can’t get in on every single one, but my list is slowly getting there. I have 9 trades running. I’m keeping track of them all (I don’t think you want to see my excel tables). But, I’m mostly concerned with getting in with those that are starting new daily trends.

It is a balancing act. Mostly with my account exposure to the market. But, it’s going to take some time to be able to say that I’m in with every daily time frame trending pair. I see it as the more my account grows, the more I’m able to expose myself to more of those other trending pairs. All you have to do is just take a look at the daily trends. Unequivocally, there’s more than enough to take advantage of. And the way it goes is when their done trending (with profit already had in your account), then switch to whoever is next. I believe the profits will outweigh the turns. Throw in a little patience on the turns, and you can maximize your effectiveness.

Ok. I’ve said enough. That’s the gist of my trading. It is simple.

- Let the trends ride.
- Watch the profits come.

Alright Journal, I got some work to do.
Or I should say, I got some learning to do.

Emerging Markets, is on the table.

Mike

[MikeWolski]

Good Morning Journal!

Good Morning Mike.
Long time no see.
You ok?

I’m good Journal, thanks.
I guess I’ll talk now.
See, I was gonna wait some more time, to see this thing play out. But, the more I see it, and experience it, my new system, the more I’m convinced. This is gonna work. I’m just tired of coming on here and thinking I finally got it.

Look. This is not going to surprise you, from all of what I’ve been coming up with. Well, one aspect of it definitely will. But, from the beginning, and still, I feel it in the core of me.

Yeah, I know Journal. Here we go again.
Well, maybe this will be the absolute last time I change any fundamental parts of this.

This is me…to the T.
Hold on to your pants.

Let’s see. How should I put it. Well, a lot of this has been articulated before. But with one super big twist. Trust me, I have heard of no one who does this. Then again…I’m not just anyone either.

That’s how we like it, Mike.
What do you got?

Plain and simple. My system is the Master Gunners Methodology ( I guess it’s not all that original).

- DAILY TIME FRAMES
I absolutely do not look at anything lower. Or higher also.

-TREND FOLLOWING

- WHEN (IN)
My target area to get in is at my 5/9 crossover place. As close as possible. No more than a day away from it. Sure it’s tricky. But, that’s the plan. You should know that I have worked on that for some time now.

- WHEN (OUT)
Same thing. Crossover.

Now, before I tell you the kicker, you should know by now that my 5/9 ema lines tell me everything I need to know about a trend. When it starts. When it ends. Now. In that context, this is what I realized. That there is no such thing as a RANGING condition.
If something has trended, then consolidates, well, it’s still technically trending, to me. When the lines cross back over, it’s then, that it changes trend. I’m fully aware of the fact that the ranging condition can go on for some time. Then someone would be technically be correct that it’s ranging. But, I will count that as still trending in the way that it was, previously. So, in my book, it will be trending one way or the other. Plain and simple.

But, the thing that extremely impresses me about Master Gunners Methodology is about how there’s diversification involved when you are in multiple pairs. Well, the more and more I thought about it, this is the only thing that makes sense to me. Given the fact that I just mentioned, that the pairs are only trending one way or the other, no other possibility. (Plus, you should know by now that I go one way or the other.)

- WHO
Every pair.

Yep. I said it.
All 28 pairs. And you know what? IT WORKS. There’s so many benefits to this. Now, tell me, do you thing I will ever be one to say, "Man…I wish I would have picked this pair, cause it’s taking off!" Nope. Cause I will be in it. And the chances are greater that it would have been on the slope of trending that particular way, than the trend for the other way. I know about those consolidating wedge flags. The more tightly they consolidate, the greater the boost will be. Well, ok. I have one day of a cushion to be in on that one.

See, I’m tired of the whole guessing game of who, and when, those pairs that will take off for days at a time. All I need to do is position myself correctly. Which is way more easier to do than by being lucky.

And what keeps me afloat, more than anything, is being diversified. Look. I must keep track of everyone. It pretty much comes down to who I’m heavy with, and who I’m heavy against. But, when you see it across the board, you definitely get the clues when things are beginning to change.

I remember when it started, only last week. First of Oct. The beginning of the last quarter for the year. So, I got this whole quarter to tell me the results. But, and I knew this was going to be the case, it was going to take some time to adjust to where I want to be in with everyone. On the first of the month, I did get in with all 28 pairs. Whoever was trending. Sure, there was a lot who was trending late in their cycles. But, it did give me the sense of diversification. But of course, I had to make changes at the end of a day, throughout the week. My account was not all over the place. And I can tell when I made the proper moves.

I remember being long with the CAD. All seven pairs. Yeah, that was a good run. But, it didn’t last too long. Because they were late in their trend cycle. Ok. So, I switched, going the other way. On some of them. Oh, the CHF. Man, they became real weak. And still. Oh, and the Commodity pairs were strong, at the time. But, we all know how they dove. So, yeah, I just have gone the other way on them.

I guess one point here is that I definitely know the strengths and weaknesses that are present. Across the board. Well, I have to keep track of them all. It’s all symmetry. Someone will be trending 7-0. And it goes down from there. 6-1. 5-2. 4-3. Etc…

Whoever has their 5 ema line above their 9 ema line, is trending high. It’s a no brainer. The strongest currency will be trending high in conjunction to every other currency. Likewise with the weakest currency, trending against. Well, the point here is that I deem this to be the best way to determine what a trend is. Everyone has their own method. And I’m sure there are a thousand different ways to determine what the trend is.

Man, I even remember Clint giving a big speech on Master Gunners thread about how important it is to find your way of determining what the trend is. This is mine. And I trust it. I trust this more than I trust anything else. Have for quite some time now.

- POSITION SIZING
Well, Master Gunner used a very good way. He went with whatever account size you have, you went with that amount of a lot size. Example, if you had, say, $300,000 of an account balance. You went in with 300,000 units. If you have a $1000.00 account balance, well then, you go in with 1,000 units.

I remember it was only a couple hours before the opening bell, Sunday 5pm here. Oct 1st. I took the dog for a walk. Was alone. And it hit me pretty hard that I shouldn’t go in with that much. There is a reason (talk about that in a little bit). But, I decided to go only half of that. That would’ve been way too much for me to handle. In regards to the whole account amount, I think it’s good. That’s the dollar amount to the unit amount. But, I have something else to worry about. And I know that I made a good move, by only going in with half of the amount of my account dollars for the units to get in with, on each pair.

Look. I don’t want to be on here all day. I’m gonna have to make this short. But, since I found out that my unemployment decision very well could take very so much longer, like to the end of the year, I made a big move. Since, I’ve been getting paid, from them, ever since July 1st, and know that I will have to pay them back if they decline it, that I was not going to let that money just collect in my bank account. See, one hand doesn’t know what the other is doing. The system gives it to you before the final decision gets made.

Well, I put that money to good use. I put it into my trading account. $4,500. So far. But, don’t forget that I already had $500. in my trading account. Basically, I’m playing with 5k now. But the thing is, I can’t lose more than my original 500. Cause, if by chance they want their money back, I need to be prepared to dish it out. Well, I’m not getting any younger, waiting around for them to decide. The last call I made to them, the lady said it could take a very long time. They have to deal with everybody in the state.

Well, talked to Trish about it, and she agrees that I should do what I want to do. And that’s the reason why I’m not going in with a size that matches my account balance. Sure, 500 dollars is nothing when you have a balance of 5k. And plus, I’m just not going to risk a whole lot. If this system is going to work, I need to experience it first.

Let’s see. I only have numbers for the first week, and consequently, for the month.
How’s 4.4% increase sound?
Pretty dog-gone good to me.
Man, I couldn’t imagine what it would be like if I went in with whole units for account dollars. But look, I’m in 28 pairs. One pair would be 5,000 units. That’s around 44 cents a pip. So that will be around $12.32 for every one pip, for all of the pips, in every pair, that takes place. I don’t know, for some reason, I think that’s a little too high for me. Given the fact that I can’t go below 4,500 threshold on my account balance. You know?

By the way, I plan on subsidizing my account, from everything I get from them. I think I counted that it should come out to around 8k, by the end of the year.

But, it is leverage for me to use, to boost up my account, till the end of the year. And if they come knocking, well, then I’ll take it out. And we’ll see how I look at years end. Then again, if they accept it, well then, I’m in absolute great shape! Cause it will be all my money. All of it.

Trish says that she can take us to the end of the year. But, not after that. So, it will be interesting to see how I look at the end.

Ok Journal. I’m done talking.
Well, one more thing.
I have decided that my only course of action, is to get my own business. I have decided that I don’t want to work for anyone, anymore. So, all my efforts will go to that. Somehow, someway, that is what I’m shooting for. Naturally, it’s this business, that I’ve been working on. Just today, I signed up for a day long class, next week. Downtown Pgh. It’s this program that helps veterans. Called Boots for Business. Basically, it’s a program to help veterans, in regards to starting your own business. Many resources. This is an introduction to entrepreneurship. Well, we all know what I have in mind. I will have to see what kind of help I can get from this.

I kind of feel bad that I served so long ago, and not really in wartime. I mean, who am I? No one special. But, technically, yeah, 6yr veteran. So, I do qualify. But, I do have it in mind that before the year ends, I want an official business. Like, registered and legit. On the books. This is what I want. I just hope that it will become a legitimate one. See, making money is one thing. Making a business is another. I want a business. I’m tired of the master/slave relationship. Reminds me of the profile that I set up for me, on their website. On the ‘More about yourself’ part, I put…I want to control my own destiny. I want my own business.

Thanks Journal.
Mike

[Diabolo888]

like the new strategy. It wil be interesting to review at the end of the month. Good luck.

[anon46773462]

How are you doing, @MikeWolski? Haven’t heard from you in a while!..

[MikeWolski]

Good Morning Journal! (…Manxx also)

Good Morning Mike!

Ok. I’ll talk.

Everything’s good. Been super busy.
Still on the same schedule. 3:45 wake up. Stretch. Exercise. Stretch. And, finally, by 5, ready for that first cup. Then, me and Trish go for our walk, with the dog. So, you know, between the news, another cup of coffee, shower, and just getting ready, that’ll wrap up our morning. I do bid her good-bye just after 7. So then, it’s working time for me till she comes home at 5. This has been our routine since the beginning (July 1st). Oh, and yeah, I still am not considered a cook (never will be), but I do know how to follow directions. So technically speaking, I’ve been the cook. I don’t mind. Whatever it takes to make her happy. I do remember (last year) what a good feeling it was to come home and bam, dinner is served. So now, it’s my turn to serve it up.

In any case, many changes and updates have taken place, in regards to me. I guess the biggest one has to do with the help I’m about to embark on. Tomorrow. But, it started about 2 weeks ago. I attended a day long class. Was called ‘Boots to Business’. It’s a program that is spear headed by these entities…SBA (Small Business Association), VA (Veterans Administration), and the University of Pitt. Basically, it’s a program to help veterans start their own business. So, I came out of that with the knowledge of all the resources that are available. But, it’ll first really start once you get in touch with a coach. And that’s precisely what I’m going to do tomorrow, morning.

There was about 20 of us veterans there, for the class. Some had their own businesses up and running already, but I guess they were interested in the government contracts that are available, to veteran owned businesses. Anyway, I was talking to the guy who sat next to me, during one of the breaks. So then, as I was talking, this lady came by and dropped her card on my binder, on the table. And walked away. I only found out afterwards that she’s in the business of one-on-one coaching, to help people start their own business. I thought she was soliciting work, apart from the class. But later found out that she’s a good person to talk to, as a coach. So, I emailed her, after the class, and expressed serious interest in working with her. Bottom line is, we’re meeting tomorrow.

I kind of don’t know what think. There’s been so much going through my mind lately, just about the whole business thing. I don’t really want to get into it here, but, I have a feeling that she might be able to clear up a lot of things up for me. But, needless to say, I need direction. I’ll tell you what I know for sure. I want my own business. And there is only one business for me ( you should know what that is by now).

The thing is, I don’t quite know how to go about it. You know, it was only this morning, that I just might be changing my mind about something. To back it up a little, I’ve only ever wanted to be in business for myself. I want my own trading business, for myself. That’s the only thing I’ve had in mind. But, well, and I haven’t talked to her yet, but somehow it just doesn’t seem like such an admiral, feel good purpose. See, at the class, one of the things that we learned is that your business idea should have meaning. Let’s see. I do remember this equation, that they put out. Opportunity = Problem + Solution. So, you know, in the context of coming up with a business idea, that seems to be the thing to solve. And, I mean, it does make sense. But, only in the context of having a good or service to offer the public. Man, the whole time that I was in that class, I kept thinking none of this applies to me! How in the world does speculating in the market produce meaning? It doesn’t.

Well, I know that my business has to do with investing. And somehow that is a different animal. I just don’t know how to reconcile my business idea to something that has meaning. The only way would be to make it a service to those who have money that they want a return on. Which, of course means, that I would have to work for them. And we all know that that’s precisely what a hedge fund does. But, I’m (was) against that. I don’t know, I think I might be changing my mind about that now. I really don’t like that idea. I would rather worry about my own account than any others.

But, on the other hand, if it will make real meaning out of what I do, then maybe I just might need to rethink about that. I don’t know. The bottom line is, I need a particular direction to go in. I need to see what she thinks. I will spill all my concerns to her, tomorrow.

Ok. That’s nice.

What else. Well, still no word on unemployment. Still getting paid. But, as I mentioned last time, I’m making good use of that money. Hey, if they want it, I have it for them, no problem. But, I am hoping that I can go to the end of the year with it all. I’m just trying to capitalize on this opportunity. I do have to tell ya. It’s nice to see a big account size (well, for me, anyway). I’ve never traded with this amount of money before. I’m getting close to the 7k mark. Look. Honestly. To me, the amount means nothing. It’s just, every now and then, I’ll realize how big the account is getting. Especially the two times a month that I put more into it. It’s just a number. I at least know, for myself, that the amount is not a factor. Believe me, there’s way more factors than the how much part. How about…direction that it’s going in…percentages…success or failure…the plan working out, or not…

Well speaking of that, I guess this is a good segway into how my plan worked out.
I didn’t.
It’s ok. See, I had a good first week. But, then the next 2 slowly but surely dwindled the account, just way too much. I mean, the only good thing was of how small my position sizing was kept to. It was as I stated before. But, over time, there’s simply too many variables to have control over. And it, in the long run (relatively speaking), it’s not efficient. But, it made me think though.

This is what I realize. Trading Forex, is all about relationships. I mean, compare it to any other financial security. There is none like it. It’s in a class all by itself. What we’re talking about here is 2 different securities against each other. You have to think about it that way. We’re not just trading supply and demand on a single thing (like everything else out there). Really, think about that. I don’t know, maybe all the money managers of the world might think and relate currencies to their other securities. Maybe treat them the same. Cause surely our charts will reveal the similar patterns than, say, gold has. Hence, technical analysis vs. fundamental analysis. But, the charts do look the same, of course!

What we are trading here is, in effect, whether one currency is greater or less in demand than the other currency. It’s all relational. And that has led me to see that the absolute best way to go about it is back to the good old strength vs. weakness method. I know Dennis made that a favorite way to trade in here lately. But, that is exactly what I determined back when I started. I was on to something back then, but, there were a lot of lessons that I needed to learn in the meantime.

Journal, do you remember all of the statistics that I used to come up with, in regards to strength and weakness? Well, there was a lot. So, I dug out all of the paper work that I saved. Man, talk about going down memory lane. I mean, I was into it. There’s so much data that I ran that I don’t even understand it all! It was like I was a different person back then. But, my only aim was to collect all that data in order to figure out how the currencies moved in conjunction to each other. Plus, and I knew this back then, that someday I could always go back and do some kind of backtesting. I knew it wasn’t for nothing, back then.

Well, thank God! Cause, I’m coming back around full circle now. I hate to say it, but I was a genius back then. Shoot. There was a method to my madness. Well, all I have to say now, is thank God for excel. Cause that surely makes life much easier. Boy, figuring out those function tabs was not easy. I finally got it though.

Anyway, from what I leaned in the last 3-4 weeks. And given my history. This is where I’m at now, with how I trade. I will pick 2 currencies. The strongest and the weakest. I trade them as complete. Meaning, one currency will have 7 trades with them, and the other will have 6 trades. So, I will only have 13 trades running at a time. There is the element of diversification, still present. Oh, and I go with a complete unit sizing to what my account balance is.

This is not yet completed. But, I tell ya, it works much better than what I was doing. It didn’t take long to see some positive results. Made my money back, and then some. So, it’s good to be above water. But look. There’s a lot of give, this way. What are the possibilities that I pick the actual strongest currency. And what’s the possibility that I pick the weakest currency. And I’m talking about in a weeks time. As long as I’m close to being right, I will have the edge. Like the present situation. Yesterday, after seeing how the day progressed, and by looking at the numbers, also realizing the end of month play, I decided to go long EUR. And short the JPY. Well, we should all know by now that I got one of them right ( cough Yen ). Not so sure about the EUR. But, I’m not jumping out just yet. The week has to play out. The good thing is that I’m still above water. I can lose, and am, on the EUR. But, as long as the JPY outperforms the losing of the EUR, then I’m safe.

I did notice some potential with the AUD, and the NZD. But, before I decided to go with the strongest one of those, the EUR showed some great strength yesterday. Well, I’m committed with my 2 pairs now. And go figure, those Comms are tearing it up today. Hmm. Oh well. At least we have some risk on taking place. That’s an important factor to consider.

Look. I’m not completely set up with the determinations of my 2 pairs yet. But, in the meantime, I will stay committed for the week. I believe the bottom line will be a positive, than a negative. Hey, given my style of trading, I am reaping the benefits of both the AUD, NZD, and even CAD going against the JPY. See, that’s the diversification that I was talking about.

Think of it. It’s all about relationships. It’s how they are relating to one another. Plus, I’m collecting more and more principles. Like the fact that you have a better chance at it by holding them longer… Strength vs Weakness… Minimal position sizing.

It’s coming together.
Seems like that’ll always be the case, with me.
But hey, as long as I’m making progress, then I’m fine with it.
I love this game, like nothing other!

Alright Journal.
Mike

PS. - If any thing earth shattering comes out of my meeting with that coach, tomorrow morning, I’ll tell.

[MikeWolski]

Good Morning Journal!

Good Morning Mike.

Well, I figure I will clue you in on all of the things that have been happening with me lately.
Actually, a whole lot. And I got some time this morning to expound on that.

Let’s see. I just took a look at where I last left off at. Yeah, I met with that ‘so called’ coach. Actually, I met with a number of people since then, also. But that lady…man…she’s worthless. No help whatsoever. Never heard from her again. It’s like we didn’t even meet. Bottom line is, she’s not interested. She’s supposed to be in the business of helping others start their own business. I don’t know, there’s got to be something else going on with her. Absolutely worthless.

Well, I went back to the ‘Career Link’ ( Pa’s job career center). They are no help. Well, not directly anyway. See, I understand they are in the business of matching up employees to employers. Well, I’m in the business of starting up my own business. So, just some resources was what I got from them. Kind of like referral stuff. Well, actually, because of them, I signed up for ‘book a librarian’, in the Carnegie Library. It’s for an hour. Basically, it’ll lead me to potential other business owners. I just want to find those one’s who own and operate their own trading business. You know, just like what I am looking to attain. Well, that’s at the end of the month.

Then I had an appointment (yesterday) with a retired banker. He’s a mentor, who gives his time for advise and coaching, and this is all through the SBA (Small Business Administration), a federal program for small businesses. Well, it went ok. Basically, he expressed how hard it’s going to be in order to approach a financial institution, for any kind of funding, for the type of business I am trying to get up and running. Sure. I understand. This is a speculating, risky business. He did tell me not to worry about making it a legal entity. The only thing in question is the financing part.

Well, the thing that I got out of that meeting was this. He says that I need to draw up, and I’m calling it a ‘Profile’, of myself. Where I came from, on this journey. What I’ve experienced so far. Where I’m at. What are my projections. Etc…

Well, I did that yesterday. And I feel pretty dog-gone good about how I drew myself up. Do you want to see it? I’ll spill. I have nothing to hide. Btw…he said that it should be something short, like 2-4 paragraphs long. Man…that’s short. Well, here it is. Don’t laugh.

MIKE WOLSKI.docx (14.3 KB)

Great. It’s hidden. Anyway.
There’s one more major thing that I got going on. And, in fact, it’s going down in like 3 1/2 hours from now. Ready for this Journal?
I started a group.

From the website ‘MEETUP’. I did some searches on the web, to find who else has their own full time trading business, locally. Well, couldn’t find any. So, through this entity, I figure I will start my own group. It’s called ‘Pgh Traders’. I want this to be exclusively for all those who own and operate their own trading business. I’m not going to be too picky about what particular market they are in. But, we all would have something in common. Full time, business owner, traders.

Well, I got 2 hits! Our first meeting is at noon today. There should be 3 of us there (I hope). The purpose will be to network with each other, meet any needs, pull together resources, and just a place to where we can gather and share what we know. Hey, even if it’s just a time where we can tell stories and share our experiences, it should be constructive.

Look. It’s great we all here have this place to go to, for learning, communicating, etc…But there’s something about seeing people in the same boat as we are, in real life! Locally.

I hope this turns out to be something really good. We’ll see I guess.

Well Journal, I have to cut this a little short now. ( I have another appointment now…walking the dog)
I did want to talk about what I got going on, trading wise. You know, my trading operation.

I think it’s interesting.
Maybe when we get back. Cause I will have a couple more hours to spare.

Alright Journal.
Mike

[tamwoo]

Good luck with your thread! I’ll be stopping by to read your progress! Many happy returns

[MikeWolski]

Ok Journal.
Where was we?

Oh yeah, market.

Well, none of this should be a surprise to you. But, this is precisely how I’ve always viewed the market. Think about it. I need to know what’s going on. I want to know. I mean, I need to know. This should do it. In short, who’s strongest, down to who’s weakest. These are my parameters.

The start of the month is the beginning. The end of the month is the end. I keep a running total of strength to weakness at points along the way. The biggest interval will of course be the entire months total. But then it’s divided up into sections. The most popular is daily. But then, I’ve divided up the daily time period into 3 parts. Well of course, right? We have the Asian session, the London session, and the US session. Therefore, for each day, I have 3 appointments, to tally the scores. This will, in effect, tell me what happened after each session.

So, for me (EST), I have a 3am, 8am, and a 5pm deadline to run the numbers. See, I want to know what happened during the Asian session. Who was strong down to who was weak. This reminds me of how a bank can compound their interest rate, for a payment plan. You know, instead of a once a year compounding period, maybe a monthly compounding period. It’s basically taking chunks all along the way ( I know it’s not that exact of a parallel, but it’s the idea behind it).

All along the way, all I’m doing is tallying the flow. So, in a minute, you’re going to see a lot of numbers. Just know that all these numbers are taken from the previous session. So, you can imagine that there’s going to be quite a bit of back and forth going on inside of a day. But the whole idea of this is to see the flow.

Hold on to your pants.

I have to take this chunks at a time. Cause my chart is going from left to right, as the month progresses. This is how the month started. Color coded. And all I’m dealing with is %'s. Let’s start from the beginning. I’m going to go through the progression, which ends at NFP for this particular table. The NZD started the month being up 5.41% against all of the other currencies, after the first session (Asian). Well, 5 hours later, I take another snap shot. And what I do is keep the running total going. So, the NZD ends up being the strongest currency after London pretty much gets going to 6.49% higher against all of the other currencies combined. And so, they end the first day of the month being 8.68% above all other currencies. We can see the progression of what happened during that day. Take a look at the EUR. During Asia they dropped -1.01%. But they boosted higher to a net .40%, which made them increase 1.41% during the London session. But…during the US session they came right back on down to end the day with -1.05% total for the day. Basically, I’m keeping track of the monthly increases, strong to weak, at these points within the day, in the context of the monthly tracking. Get it?

Now, since I want to know how the whole field is doing aggregately, that’s what those white numbers signify, at the bottom. What I do there is divide the field up into 2 groups. Either your in the positive or in the negative. These 2 days are divided up with 3 being positive and 5 being negative. Well, if your positive, and you increased, then it’s a positive number AND if your negative and you decrease, then it’s also a positive number. I basically want to know how much the positives are continuing and also if the negatives are decreasing. It’s the flow that I want to know, remember? Well, at the end of the first day we had a positive 18.85 figure (both session numbers added all up). That tells me that there was very much a flow happening. But just take a look at NFP day. Well, more precisely during the US session, there was an opposite flow taking place (negative -15.2). Well, for the entire day it shook out to a -2.11 figure. Which told me that there was more opposite flow happening than continual flow.

Ok. That’s nice. Here’s the following weeks numbers.

Big picture analysis…Monday, Tuesday, & Wednesday went with the flow. The pinnacle took place on Tuesday. More precisely during that US session. Thursday began a turn. And by Friday’s end, we had some good retracements take place. Well, you have to remember that the beginning of the week went quite strong. So, it’s the natural course of flow. But, the positives and negatives surely shake out and become more clear as the month progresses, right? Well, all this tells me a lot of information. Strong to weak. How it transpired. Session by session. Running totals. This way I can see whether we have turns coming or not. Next table is this current week taking place.

See, I can see how strong and weak everybody is against each other. I think this is valuable information. Given my time period constraints (monthly progression).

There will be many days I don’t even look at charts anymore. Yeah man, forget charts. All I need is these %'s. By the way, I switched over to Barcharts. Much better than Tradingview. My $30 a month goes to them now.

I’ll show you some other charts that I have.

Kind of the same thing as above, but this is simply DAILY end results.

So, you want to know how I calculate the strong weak data? Take a look.

All those are end of day numbers, except for today (last column). Those are the 8am figures. It will be replaced with what I get at 5pm closing, to then turn into the end of day numbers.

I don’t know, there’s many ways to calculate strong/weak. I feel this is the best way. All I’m doing is taking it session by session, day by day, in the context of the month. Well, what do I need charts for? I know…support and resistance levels. Long term trend tracking. But, given the time frame that I trade, which is on the shorter side of things (days), and my perspective of the monthly flow of things, this is all I need.

Ok. Well, let’s get it all out, shall we?
I’ve kept track of my trading account balances. Hope you can understand it.

Basically, under each Friday’s total account balance I have what the weekly % is (cream color). Under that is what the monthly % total is (green). Under that is what the quarterly total is (light blue). But, if you look, I switched strategies Oct 22nd. So, because of that, I’m tracking how I’m doing with that strategy. And that’s what that last box (light green), under the total capitalized line (dark blue), is.

Well, presently, I’m out of the market. That’s my ending account balance. Took profits out. I was in with the NZD strong, and the JPY weak. You should know that I trade complete currencies. One strong and one weak. 13 trades in total when I get in. I’m just waiting for the right time to get back in.

That’s one thing that I’m learning, more and more. I need to be on the sidelines way more than I’m in the market.

Always learning.

Ok Journal.
I’m done talking.

One more hour, then it’s Meetup time. Can’t wait!

Mike