My journey journal...from demo to live...and beyond

Good morning Journal.

Let’s see…it’s Feb 15th. And I’m ready for a long (3 day) weekend!

But first…we got to talk.

This is not gonna be pretty, Journal. Let’s see. In a nutshell. I got some learning to do. This week turned me upside down. Trading wise. And I’m not happy about it. So, the least that I can do is learn something here, right? I mean, I’ve even used my Business Journal to document my every move, this week (I wrote a lot).

-What happened, Mike?-

Here we go.

2020-02-15_0418
This is what’s been going in the market since Feb. Let me explain. The month started out with such the risk-off sentiment (JPY bull market). And well, ever since, that’s been a top. Meaning, there’s been a lot of Yen selling (risk-on). All you really have to do is check out that bottom row number. That’s how many pips it turns out if you are holding all 7 JPY pairs in you hand, short (JPY bull).

Well, as we see, at the end of day Monday, not all that much of a change to the landscape. The JPY still in their bull market. The strength does move up to 75 (from 63). Their trending against 6 other currencies and 1 their trending in a bear market (USD). And the pip total comes out to be -32. That’s pretty much around a break even day, for 7 running pairs.

I’m still in it. My trades are matched accordingly. All is fine. Let’s move on.

2020-02-15_0435
End of day Tuesday.
The JPY still in a bull market. But the strength coming down (60). Still trending against 6 others, and one not. And the total pip count comes out to be another negative figure. -134.

I don’t know. Maybe it’s my fault. But…every since the beginning of the week I’ve been expecting different results. Uh…like some pips maybe? But it’s just not happening. At this point, I’m bent out of shape. Look. There’s only been JPY selling. No risk-off mood. Speaking of that. Check this out.

2020-02-15_0448
This is the AUD. Since the beginning of the month. They’ve been in a bear market since Jan 6th. But this is showing the change. On Feb 3rd, their trending bear against all 7 other currencies. With a strength of 315 pips. But, on that day, if you were holding all 7 AUD pairs short, you would have lost 496 pips that day. That’s a lot! Then the next day comes. You would’ve lost 508 pips. And, well, you can see the pattern here. It’s not pretty if you want a TREND to continue!! Well, the bottom line here is that the AUD, according to my trend determination, changes from a bear market to a bull market, on this End of Day Tuesday (green).

Let’s see. If you simply were holding on all 7 AUD pairs, last weeks pip count would turn out to be 865 pips. And then it continues. For this week so far, you would’ve chalked up another 366 pips (193 plus 173). I say all of this just to see the other side of my JPY. It’s like…the JPY is losing, but the AUD is gaining.

And Journal, this is gonna hurt, but do you remember me saying something last week, about them?

So…what’s the lesson here?
I guess I should have taken them more seriously. They’ve gotten strong enough to change their respective market now. I mean, the writing was on the wall.

Anyway. I need to move on.
But first, definitely need another cup. Hold on.

Alright.

Well, I remember what happened. See. It was Tuesday night, and the NZD had their interest rate decision at 8pm my time. I wasn’t gonna make any moves until I seen what the market reaction to that was.

It turned out to be more of a risk-on sentiment. Well, I kept my cool, and swallowed up the fact that I’m gonna lose my butt, again. i just went to bed. No changes. Well, it was on my mind. Probably too much that night. Oh…I do remember. I didn’t sleep that well. I mean, who does, when you know you’re going down? Right? So, this is what happened, as a result. I woke up earlier than usual. This is right about when London starts their session. I checked the fall out. It wasn’t pretty. I mean, the market (all my JPY pairs, daily candlesticks), showed nothing but green high candles. And there goes my account balance. Not good. Major losses.

Well, this is what I did. I quickly took a picture (for documentation purposes), and switched directions. That’s…exiting out all of my 7 short pairs, and getting back in going long. Take a look at what it looked like.


This is the pic right before I exited out of them all. I wanted a before picture.
Just look at my entry places (dotted lines on each).
Now Journal…what do you think? First off…are not every single candle green?
Is not every yellow (5ema) turning up now to go over the green (9ema)?

Yes. And yes.

No doubt the NZD is the cause of all this. I mean, come on! It’s a blood bath! What am I gonna do? Stay in all these losing positions?

Well, what’s my strategy tell me to do?

Uh…wait to the end of the day to see the result.

Well, also, my whole premise is to follow the market. So. I’m just gonna get ahead of this before end of day, that’s all. Am I bending the rules here?

Yes.

So, the best thing I can do now is document:

  • My every move
  • My thinking
  • My motivations

So that I might learn something.
I just do not want to be doing something in secret. If I’m gonna blow it, mess up, jack things up terribly, then let’s do it in the light. I can always go back and find out exactly where I went wrong.

Hence, the reason why I am talking to you right now, Journal.

Well, let’s see what that end of day Wednesday looks like.

2020-02-15_0556

  • JPY still technically in a bull market
  • Strength goes from 60 down to 15
  • Trending bull against only 4 other currencies and 3 bear

Ok. Well, maybe I got ahead of it. Right? It looks like it’ll change markets soon. Like, sometime this week. I mean, this is my thinking. But, in actuality, what happened was that everything that transpired that day already took place. The rest of the day just back around. Those daily green candles really didn’t get much bigger. In fact, that EUR/JPY pair made a complete turn around!

Anyway. This is proof of where I bought every pair. I’m going up now.

Ok. So now, all I’m hoping for is a turn of the trend. Technically speaking. Right? Cause I switched directions. Yes. It is a premature move. I will admit it. And trust me, I documented all of this, as I proceeded. And…why?

Because I’m supposed to follow the market, first, then act accordingly.
But, I just committed the opposite.
Let’s see what the end of day Thursday looks like.

2020-02-15_0611

  • JPY STILL in a bull market
  • Strength comes down a little bit more to 13
  • Now trending (bull) to only 3 other currencies, and 4 to bear market

Great…Now what. I’m starting to break my cardinal rule. That’s a green line up there. And if there’s anything true to my strategy, it’s the fact that I need to follow that. But, I’m not. This reminds me of something I said last week also.

Alright. Let’s get this over with.

  • I can’t follow properly
  • I do have a real mess on my hands
  • I have not learned anything in the last 7 years
  • Who do I think I am?

Well, I don’t change my positions. Cause I’m not gonna make matters worse by changing back and forth. It is a large cost to be doing that. What I’m thinking here is this. Make it to the end of the week and make a decision to get back on track before next week starts.

This is how it ends.
2020-02-15_0626

  • JPY in a bull market
  • Strength rose up to 24 now
  • Pip count takes back most of the losses (only -104)

Monday through Wednesday the JPY loses -401 pips (counter trend).
Thursday and Friday the JPY takes back +297 pips (trended).

Well, what happened, in hindsight?

  • Did I follow the market?
    Nope.
  • Did I act before the signal?
    Yep.
  • My account drops -7.28%. From this time last week.
  • From the month start = -17.71% (This is extremely embarrassing)

This is what it looks like now.
Wait. Let’s put these 2 charts together. This first one is what I showed you earlier. It’s right before I jumped. Just look at the 5 and 9 ema lines.


Now, this is what made me do it.

And this is what it looks like at the weeks end.


All you got to do is compare. So, let’s do that, together.

  • USD - leveled off. It did not continue higher.
  • EUR - dropped like a knife.
  • GBP - the 5 ema line did cross up and over (changed trends)
  • CHF - same as the EUR. No trend change.
  • AUD - could not really change trends (5 equal to 9 now)
  • NZD - did not change trend at all
  • CAD - technically did change the trend (5 above 9)

Look Journal.
What hurts the most to me, now, is the fact of me not being able to keep with my strategy. And all that is, is simply following what my aggregate JPY trend is. And, as you can see above, the line is green. Therefore, I should have been staying in with all 7 of my JPY pairs short (bull market).

That’s what I said last week. Did I do that this week?

No.
I did not.

What can I learn about this?
Look. I’ve been pondering this. And beating myself up pretty badly about it.

  • My system proves itself again

Even if I need to eventually see it a day late, then that’s what I should do. See it first, then act.

  • DO NOT GET AHEAD OF THE MARKET

Journal, I remember when this all went down (Wednesday early morning). I counted the pip spread. It came out to be Bull 7. I know that I esteem the end of day numbers above all, but this was a live, current standing. And it never really did dip down below into bear market territory. Like, at any one point in time. So therefore, this is another point to be taken, in which for me to trust my system even more.

Throughout that day, I would take a time out and count what that current number comes out to be. It never went below that “Bull 7”. Look above. Thursday ends with a Bull 13. Then Friday ends with a Bull 24.

I’m just giving more credence to the fact of why I should trust my system, more.
And what’s the harm of following a day late anyway? Right?

I don’t know. To be honest with you, I always feel that the market can make such a large move in which it could crush me. And why not get ahead of it? Well, in hindsight, I guess what wins out is the integrity of my system.

That’s what I should try to prove.

  • Will following my system cause me to lose, in the end?

This is a real lesson for me, Journal.
I guess it’s all in how closely I can keep my trades on the right track. I’ve done a bad job in doing that this week. 3 days this week, I was not on track. And I’ve given myself a leeway of “no more than one”.

I failed.

I just hope to not do this again.

Well, this is how I rectified it.
Tried to, anyway.

Friday, late. I’m done with my last bus driving run at 4:45pm. So I have 15 minutes, in the parking lot, to square away my trading (on my phone). When 5pm comes, that means the end of the day. And the end of the week! Well, I texted Trish I’m coming home, and sped off. I forgot!

Let me back it up a little. It was around 4pm that day, after assessing the market, that I needed to get out of these 7 JPY long positions, and get back in going short. Right? Cause the market did not officially change. Well, that was my plan. As soon as I’m done working, I have to do this. And it’ll have to be when I get back into my car, in the parking lot. Which will be just about 4:45pm.

But, I forgot. I was talking to her on my way home. Then it hit me at about 3 minutes till 5. I told Trish I got to pull over and place some trades. Well, I did. But I guess I needed more time. Cause time ran out!! I only had time to do this.

I exited out of all my long positions. I started getting in on my short positions, but only with the USD, and the EUR. When I got to the GBP/JPY it said “market closed”. Man…I was so upset!!!

What can I do.

All I can do is wait till the market opens up on Sunday night. Then I’ll proceed to finish the action.

Well, that’s my story Journal.

It was not a good week. I messed up. I mean, am I beating myself up unnecessarily?

No.

I should have erred on the other side of things. Like, seen a printed red line first. Definite market turn. Then changed my positioning.

And well, I guess I have the opportunity to see whether I will make this mistake again, or not. I don’t plan on it. But if I do, how do you think I will react to that? It won’t be pretty. Therefore, I will not make this mistake again. Cause:

  • I don’t want to talk about this again
  • I know I can be a follower of the market (my system)
  • It will be extremely embarrassing

Alright Journal.
I’m done talking.
Maybe I will pick myself up and we can talk about something else this weekend.
We’ll see.

Mike

Morning Mike, great documentation! Great journal. Trust me, I can feel your pain.

Would it be ok to post feedback? An objective, outside observation (s).

Don’t want to jump in if you prefer members are “read only.” :grinning:

KC

1 Like

Hey KC !

To answer you question…absolutely!

I’ve always wondered what people think.
Not that I NEED to know.
But would definitely welcome it KC.

Thanks for asking!
Bring it.

Good morning Journal.

Feb 22nd. Another week in the books. And boy…what a week is was.

It was a good week.

Oh…you made some money, huh?

Nope. I’m still not there yet.
But I learned a whole lot. About my strategy. And about myself. Let me explain.

Well, you have to remember, Journal, where I came from. Remember last week? I do. I came down pretty hard on myself. And to summarize that. It’s like this. I will absolutely not ever get ahead of my strategy. Again.

  • I trust my system
  • I will follow it
  • And NOT get ahead of it

I mean, come on Journal. You know it by now. It is very. Very. Simple. (like me)
I follow my line. Whatever color it is, that’s the direction I better be in, with my basket of 7 running trades. Right?

Cause it’s costly, when I’ve deviated from it.
But never again.

Ok. So. Let’s unravel this…drama.
What happened?

2020-02-22_0230
Ok. So, here’s what the JPY trend has been looking like since the beginning of the month.

  • It’s technically in a bull market (green line)
  • But that bull market looks like it found a top since the months start
  • The JPY has been losing strength considerably

And so. Monday comes and goes. With not all that much change.

  • Technically still considered in a bull trend
  • Goes from 24 to a 20 (the strength of the trend)
  • Against 3 other currencies in a bull market, 4 others in a bear market
  • That days cumulative pip count turns out to be -54 pips

Well, all that right there tells me that not a whole lot has changed. That’s all. And so, what does that tell me to do? The same thing. I do nothing. Sit tight.

Let’s move on. Tuesday’s results.
2020-02-22_0247

  • The trend is still bull
  • Gets stronger, from 20 to 41
  • Now it trends bull to 4 other currencies and 3 bear
  • That daily pip count comes out to be 199 pips

Ok. Well. That’s nice. I made some pips this week, so far. Right? It made up for the loss yesterday, and then some. But this is what I’ve been thinking about what’s been happening, in the market.

The JPY has been consolidating a lot lately. Just look at it there. We’ve come off such a strong Yen. But it’s (the JPY trend) just not going anywhere. It’s like the coronovirus thing has kept them in the game. It doesn’t want to go away, and has kept the risk-off sentiment very much alive. And that’s what I’m used to equating the JPY moves to. Either risk-off (JPY strong) or risk-on (JPY weak). Right?

But anyway, that’s nice. All I know is that my mindset moving forward from last weeks spanking was this. Nothing in the world will make me deviate from my plan, any time soon anyway. My worst case scenario will be to change trends when the market says I should. And that would be, at the latest, a day late. This is my mindset now. And I have a feeling the market will make it clear for me. And guess what? That’s precisely what happened. This next very day. Wednesday. Take a look.

  • Trend change from bull to bear market (red line)
  • To a 71 pip strength
  • The JPY trending bear to 5 other currencies, and 2 to bull
  • The total pip count that day comes out to be 905 pips!

Now Journal. This was a market moving day. And believe me, I was in touch with what was going on that day. Cause I need to be. Remember. I don’t play with stop losses. I just kept seeing my account drop like you wouldn’t believe. The daily candles on all of my JPY pairs were getting greener and greener. Larger and larger.

Journal. Let me explain something here. Do you know what a piece of steel is? Well, I do. Cause that was me that day. Unmoveable. It didn’t matter what happened in the market, to me. All I kept saying to myself was that it’s looking like a trend change. Which means I will have to make a change…at the end of the day. Cause that’s my rules. And I’m not gonna deviate from them anymore.

The honest to goodness truth, was for me, to stick to the plan. I wasn’t worried. I was not shaken, whatsoever. I’m telling you Journal. After what happened last week, I was out to prove my system, no matter what. Even if my account did drop 905 pips. And guess what…I don’t think I’ve ever witnessed that much of a change. Basically, that’s well over 100 pips on each of the 7 JPY pairs that I’m in. Ok. That’s nice. So what.

Steel.
I am.

This is what it looks like at the end of day. And right before I switch directions.


Mind you…these are the daily charts. That’s zoomed out a whole lot.

So I tell myself.
Hmmm…this looks clear. Time to change with the trend.
I took this picture seconds before I switched. Meaning. I will immediately exit all of my short positions and then go long.

But Journal. I want to explain something else. This, also, has been going through my mind. Before this occurred. And that has to do with an idea I had. See. The market has been consolidating so much lately that if it becomes clear of a trend change, then I should get in with 2 positions, instead of one.

You should know Journal that I’ve had these unresolved, I should say more like incompleted, issues on my position sizing factor. Moreso having to do with when I can I add more position sizing, along with when to take some profit off the table.

Well, this seems to be the time to do it. I felt pretty strongly to go in with, not one, but two position sizing. On each pair. And that’s what I did.


There’s proof right there. If you look closely, I have .46 of a lot size on each. See. A single position sizing would be .23. But I doubled it. That’s all.

That should tell you how convinced I was of a trend change. I mean. I really felt this is what I need to do. And the more I thought about it, the more I felt good about it. It’s kind of like, this is the time for it. You know? Better to do it when a high probability situation occurs, than not. Right?

This means that I’m able to take some profit off the table, (when it’s the right time), and then to be able to still have a position running.

Actually, I remember journaling this week about this very issue. In My Business Journal. And I said in there…that I believe that this might be the key to my trading strategy.

That’s nice. Let’s move on. Thursday’s EOD results.

  • JPY bear market (red line)
  • Strength goes up to 161, from 71.
  • The JPY is now trending bear against all 7 pairs
  • The total pip count that day is +240 pips

All you have to do is look at the 5 (yellow) and 9 (green) ema lines up above. It’s that right there that tells me what the trend is. The 5 is above the 9 now, on all of them. And that’s what’s most important to me. Not even what the current price action is. Of course, the present price action IS reflected in my ema lines.

Anyway.

I would love to have a conversation about what was behind the Yen moves this week. I really don’t have the time this morning. But, in short. You would think that it would be some serious risk-on sentiment, right?

But nope. You got to see all what else is going on. Cause it surely isn’t the risk-on currencies (AUD, NZD) taking over.

Hmm…Let’s see what table I can through out here to clear this up.

2020-02-22_0435

Ok. So. The top table is what happened in each day, by itself. The bottom table is the weekly running totals. You can see how on Monday they were the same.

Now. What got me, that day, was how all of the news was touting What strong Dollar we have!!! Oh my God!!! It’s too strong!!!

Uh…guess what…analysts…you’re so wrong. I’m telling you Journal, they did not know what was happening that day. First off, the CAD was the strongest currency on that particular day (4.36%). Even the EUR (who would of thought) was much stronger (2.99%). The USD was only up 1.64% against every other currency. That particular day. But yeah, they were the top dog the day before (Tuesday). And even Thursday, also. But I distinctly remember that day all the news was talking about the safe haven US Dollar.

Anyway. I need to calm down. Their stupid though. I’ll just call it tunnel vision. There’s a whole lot more going on than the USD. But check out what the JPY did. A minus -10.72%. Now that’s major. Also. The Commodity currencies are not getting any kind of bid. So, it definitely isn’t a risk-on scenario. It’s more of an interest rate differential buying, than anything. And the CAD just might be having the upper hand, in that regards.

All I have to say is look at how the entire week ended. The USD was by far NOT the strongest currency. Their 4th on down the line.

Sorry Journal. I’m done now.
It just ticks me off.
Analysts.

Anyway. How did the week end, for my trading?

  • JPY in a bear market
  • strength of 192
  • trending weak against all 7 other currencies
  • pip count for Friday came in -96

Sure. I lost a good deal of money this week. It’s ok. But, I also gained back some, also. Going in with 2 sizes on each makes a big difference. You can say that I took advantage of the situation. Believe me, it felt good to see the trend continue that way Thursday and Friday. See. Now I have the opportunity to take some profit off the table, while still having a stake in the market. Cause I still believe in my system, in which states that “I will be profitable in the long run while continually being in the market with the stated trend”.

But I realize I still need to iron out the issues relating to when I should take some profit out of the market. Yesterday (Friday) I was contemplating taking some profit off, just before the market closes. Why? Well, due to the fact that I am in some profit. So why not? But…I decided not to.

Why? Well, I guess it’s because I think the answer should be more about when there’s a clear counter trend happening, than anything. Know what I mean? Like when my line, up there, starts pointing downwards. Cause I really don’t know what’s gonna happen next. I should wait for that kind of signal. That’s what I’ve been thinking. And that’s why I didn’t take any profit on Friday.

I’ll clue you in Journal, when the time comes.

Well, I got to run.
Thanks for listening.

Mike

P.S. — I almost forgot. Don’t mind me. I need to get this out there for documentation purposes. It’s what my account looks like now. I need to track it every weekend. It’s not pretty.

And my latest chart.

All right, open statistics will allow you to orientate yourself more quickly in your strengths and weaknesses and think out a quality plan of action depending on it, it is very nice to see how people are beginning to treat trading more thoughtfully and clearly, it is a great strategy to get real earnings in the real market.

Good morning Journal.

Let’s see…where do I begin…

What a week it has been.
What a month it has been.

And that’s precisely where we’re at right now. End of month. February in the books. And this is the moment that I’ve been dreading. Cause I need to find out where I’m going wrong. Actually, I have many questions. About my system. My strategy. Myself. Everything. But…in all of this reflection, right now, the biggest thing I keep asking myself is this…

What do I really need to learn?

As I proceed through this (and trust me I’m not looking forward to this), I will be coming up with the answers to that question.

Ok. Let’s begin. From the top.
This year is a year of “Simulation”.
Simulating how I would run and operate my very own trading business. I do have a strategy that I am following. I guess you could say that it’s pretty close to being mechanical as possible. As opposed to a discretionary type. Therefore, a lot of my efforts are pretty much revolve around following a system.

That’s nice. I’ll get to more of that in a little bit. But what’s more important than that is…how am I running my business?

Well. I would say that the most important time for me, in my business, is at the end of every month. This is the time for reflection, stats, and …oh yeah…pay myself. Cause I got bills to pay. And frankly, this is the reason for a business. To generate an income. Right?

Well, I got end of month now. And I got accounts to square up. Whatever happened up until this point, kind of doesn’t matter (well, of course it does). But I’m gonna have to withdraw some money from my trading account. This is how I want things to go. I work on a month to month time frame. Sure, it’s probably how most businesses operate. But, I like it. I think a months time period should be plenty of time to generate what I need. And even if I don’t generate a profit out of the market, I still want to get all of my expenses taken care of in one shot. Like at the beginning of the month.

As I have explained before, I primarily have 3 accounts. My trading account. My business account. My checking account. And at the present time, my business account needs built up. There’s nothing in there. See. If there was, then I would have the option of paying myself from out of that account (at the end of a month). But that’s not how I’ve decided to start the year with.

Anyway. That’s nice. Yesterday, I did reset my demo account to reflect what it should be if I withdrew out of it what I needed. I mean, that’s my priority. Cause in real life, this is precisely what I’d be doing right now.

Look. I’ve spelled out all of the details in previous posts. Plus. And I’m sorry Journal, but you’re not my most important Journal. “My Business Journal” is. Yep. Good old fashion paper, pencil, & notebook. Yeah boy, I’ve been filling that thing up a lot lately. Much documentation has been going into that. Anything business related goes in there. My strategy details. All of my trading actions. My thoughts behind any of those actions. And of course the end of month transactions. Cash flow statement. Income statement. Balance sheet.

Hold on Journal. I need more coffee.

Alright.
Well, I’m gonna need more than coffee to get through this. But, here we go anyway.

My trading.
For the month of Feb.
Bad.

But what haunts me is, what happened yesterday.

And, I’m not even going to run the numbers to find out the what if scenario. You know what they say about hindsight.

Yeah…it’s evil!

Anyway. Well, I did what I did last month. I jumped out of the market for the very last day of the month. Oh, that’s right. I came across another problem. Man…I need to figure this out. I’ll get to that later.

I took the last day off, to adjust my trading account. I talked about this last month. It’s a good time to take a breather and get ready for the next month. Right? Right. Well, I accepted the fact that I had a losing month. Lots of things happened over the course of the month. And I did talk about that stuff. But the thing is (and this is so evil to do) if I would have stayed in my 7 JPY short positions, I probably could have made up for all of my losses for the month, just in that one day!!

Unless you live under a rock, Journal, you would have known how big of a day the JPY had. And I was in with them going in the correct direction. Just hours prior. But I jumped. And my strategy dictates that my trading decisions are only made around the end of the day time (NY closing). And at no other times.

Well, when I woke up, at London’s open, I figured I’d check in to see what’s going on. You know, to see if I made a good decision or not. Well, it turns out that if I would have stayed in, all of my losses…mistakes…and turmoil that took place this month would have been erased. By the days end. And I would have looked like a genius.

But nope.

The 7 JPY pairs generated 1304 pips that day.

Talk about a sick feeling inside. And I’m talking about, all day long!

I don’t think you understand Journal. I’m in the market, cause it’s my strategy, perpetually. Basically, I’m always in it. My trades continually run. The only time that I’m not in is, well has been, at the last day of the month. I’ve talked about this last month. It seems like a good time to reset everything. In fact, I don’t know any other way to do it, frankly.

And what I’m saying is, that one reason why I like being in the market perpetually is because of the fact that we don’t know what’s gonna happen, and precisely when these big moves take place. Therefore, I can get lucky moreso than not. And I’m talking about with the trend here. All you have to do is look there. This wasn’t that much of a surprise, was it? Absolutely not. Take a look at the commodity currencies at the bottom. In fact, all of them! This week (the last 5 days) went JPY strong. It was the trend. As opposed to counter trend.

And my strategy dictates that I trade with the trend. Stay in it. And hope that it continues, more than not. Coming out as positive, in the end. That’s all.

Journal, that right there is my strategy. In a nutshell.

Yeah man, yesterday hurt. And I’m not used to this. I know it’s called FOMO (fear of missing out). Look. There’s not any other time of the month, OR EVER, that I’m not in the market. Except this one day. Of a month.

Maybe I should change this rule.

But then how would I square off my accounts?

I don’t know.
I’ll have to think about this. I need some kind of rules in place. Guidelines.

So. Getting back to my most important question.
What do I need to learn?

Trust my system.

I think this is gonna be a reoccurring theme. And I’m ok with that. Trust me. I’m aware of the fact that I’ve said this before. I’ve beaten myself up. And always have come to the conclusion that my system works. I mean, this is a good thing. I would rather be proven time and time again that my system proves profitable over time, than to find out it’s flawed. Know what I mean?

I’ll show you what I mean.
This is the month of Feb.

I’m not gonna explain all of this. Cause I did before.
Anyway. I got a point to make.
Well, I guess I have to, to some extent.
The top line graph, which goes with the table directly underneath it, is the JPY aggregate trend. Green is JPY bull market, red is JPY bear market.
Then underneath that is the 3 things I’m keeping track of.
The perfect system – impossible to follow.
The day late system – easy to follow.
My actual trading – theoretical numbers.
Now, within those 3 groups, there are 2 sets of numbers. The top number is the daily pip count, all by itself. And the bottom number is the yearly running total. These are actual pips. More precisely, the amount of pips of the 7 JPY pairs.
Cause, you would want to know how many pips, of a result, you would have at the end of the day.

And I’ll give you an example of the difference between the perfect system and the day late system. On Feb 19th, the trend changed. But, I didn’t know that it did until the end of the day. Well, on that day, there was 905 pips to be had. In a perfect world, being all knowing and switching trends before the day began (impossible), that would be positive pips. I just want to know what this number would be, that’s all. So, on that day the perfect system produced 905 pips and the yearly total turned out to be 2092 pips. And underneath that shows the day late system, which was -905 pips, and a yearly running total of -1410 pips. And underneath that is for me. I didn’t change beforehand, therefore I was a negative 905 pips. With a running total of -781 pips. But…on Feb 26th, I did change around the end of day time. Actually it was 4 hours later though (9pm).

Coming into this week (as of 2/21 EOD) the YTD’s running totals are:

  • Perfect system = +2236 pips
  • Day late system = -1266 pips
  • My trading = -397 pips

At least I’m doing better than the day late system. Cause anybody can follow that. It’s simple. All you do is see the results at every end of day, and then position accordingly.

Then the end of the week (present) the YTD’s running totals are:

  • Perfect system = +3187 pips
  • Day late system = -595 pips
  • My trading = -750 pips

And let me explain the trend here. In hindsight, last Friday was when the JPY only got stronger, from then on. The pip counts this week were:

  • Monday +629 pips.
  • Tuesday +171 pips.
  • Wed +140 pips.
  • Thurs +307 pips.
  • Fri +1304 pips.

If you were holding all 7 JPY pairs, going south, this week. That’s your results. And frankly, on Friday, that’s a record. As far as I have kept them.

Unbelievable.

What a great time to be on the sidelines. You dummy.

Oh well. What can I do. I made some mistakes this month. And for me to think that one day should make up for them, is just not right. What I think I need to be most concerned with, is trusting my system. I hope I won’t be having to always say that to myself. I mean, you got to admit that even on the day late system going from a -2206 pips to a -595 pips running yearly total is not bad at all. That’s a total of 1,611 pips of a gain. All just by sticking to the plan. That’s the easy plan, mind you.

Look. There’s merit in following the trend. That’s what my strategy is all about. As opposed to finding out when to get in the market and when to get out of it. I’m sure every single trader out there has that in mind. My obvious here.

But you know what?
I’m not one to follow what other people do. In fact, I despise that. The game is, for me, trying to find a way to profit from the market, in a consistent manner. And I think it’s best to follow, instead of speculating.

Alright Journal.
I got a lot of work to do this weekend. Like getting a good summary of what happened this month. I’ll then throw it up here for ya. Concerning:

  • My trading metrics
  • What did I do right?
  • What did I do wrong?
  • How’s my system doing?
  • How well (or not well) did I follow my system?
  • What are the lessons that I’m learning?

Thanks for listening Journal.
Mike

1 Like

Emotions… The head game is the hardest part. I wrestle with it all the time.

I understand your strategy’s premise. I like it. It’s almost the simpler the better.Given that, I am often thinking how to garner the most pips, and here’s my thought(s) on this.

A pip is a pip. It’s not like the value of each pip goes up dramatically the longer I hold it with the trend. So I have adopted the mindset that 4 trades for 50 pips is just as good as 2 for 100 pips or 1 for 200 pips. (technically I guess they do go up a small amount but for this discussion I would say it’s irrelevant given the amounts we’re talking about.)

I started thinking of my positions as dump trucks. Each position can only hold a certain amount of pips before it has to be emptied - This may sound stupid but it’s been working for me - @Lang15 did a video that confirmed this process for me - My dump trucks hold 50 pips, and has to be emptied.

Once my dump truck is emptied I set it back on the roadside with a stop/limit order. @tommor has mentioned this quite often - at a sign of weakness TP and can always get back in at a better price. This practice has required me to improve my chart reading and placement of entries.

For me, I have found this takes a tremendous amount of discipline and patience but I have started to continually take pips off the table. While still being in the market.

It’s kind of like a “see a penny pick it up… now” strategy. Up until recently I was using the “see a penny come back for it later” strategy and often found the market beat me to it! :smiley:

These are just some thoughts that I have had while reading your journal, which I enjoy very much!

Mike, thanks for sharing your thoughts, insights and analysis.

KC

1 Like

Hey KC!
Thanks for that.
That is awesome. You’re definitely thinking.

I remember thinking about that premise. Having a predetermined amount of pips you want to capture.

The only thing about that is you have to take into account exactly what pair you’re trading, when it comes to the 50 number. Cause 50 pips of a GBP pair does not even compare to a USD pair.

From one extreme, say GBP/CHF, could swallow that amount up in an hour or so. To say the USD/CHF, which would take about a week to attain.

But I understand where you’re coming from. It is a good premise to be coming from. You just factor in everything else around that. Like these points:

  • Where the support and resistance zones are
  • The prevailing trend
  • The fundamentals underlying the pair
  • Your position sizing on it
  • Your stop loss point
  • The particular pair

Then, when the time comes and you pull the trigger, all you would do then is set it and forget it. See what happens. Right?

Then learn something from each trade.

Just some of my thoughts on that.

Thanks for sharing KC!

Mike

That’s an excellent point! And I embarrassingly admit I have to be more conscious of that! :open_mouth::smiley:

KC

Good morning Journal.

March 7th now. First full week, in the books.
Where we at?

Well, all is fine. I mean, I feel good. Like, really good about my trading system that I got going. Now…do I feel good about how I traded in Feb? Nope.

There is a huge difference between my trading strategy, and how I actually trade. Therefore, I’m not gonna throw up here my results from last month. Look. I did spend a whole lot of time on that, last weekend. That’s where my time was spent (instead of in here). But boy…do I like writing down everything in my Business Journal. But, the thing is, I got everything out there on the table. All my stats. What I did wrong. What I did right. A Cash Flow statement. An Income Statement. I’m even dissecting every JPY trend from beginning to the end. That’s a process that will continue on. Presently we’re on trend # 5. Bull trend.

Anyway. That’s nice. I just know that I’m covering every aspect of my trading. And for the month of Feb, I do have it all down. I am moving on now. Therefore, I do not want to rehash all that (nonsense) again. I’ve dealt with it all. Needless to say, I am learning a lot.

But Journal. I do have to say that I’m very intrigued about my system. Do you by chance remember how I’m tracking this systems Proof of Concept? Well yeah, that’s an ongoing process. And the results are getting very interesting. I will get around to showing you what I’m talking about shortly.

But first, more coffee.
Then, let’s see where we’re gonna go next.

Alright.

Well, let’s talk about the market a little. Unless you live under a rock, you’ve got to know that the market is moving. There’s pretty much only one thing it’s concerned about. The coronavirus. And all of this is affecting my currency, the JPY, in a major way. Let’s take a look.

I’m gonna unveil what’s going on this way. Comparatively.
I track the JPY trend.
It’s strong now. But how strong?
I’m gonna show you a shot of when the JPY got the strongest last year.


This is all you need to know.
That is the JPY bull trend (green). The line graph corresponds to the table underneath it.
The numbers signify how strong of a trend it is.
We can see that when the month of August came, well, so came a very strong JPY. Just look at the numbers. From 33, to 70, to 98, to 232, to 352, to 441. And that’s the top. It all went downhill from there. That’s a quick strengthening of the Yen. That’s 5 straight days of massive increases.

I’ll throw up the same pick, but with the actual daily pip count that corresponds to that.


That top row of numbers are simply the total amount of pips had if you added up all of the 7 JPY pairs. Daily results. For that particular day. The bottom row is what the running totals are since the beginning of the year. So, just forget that row. Let’s look at this. Technically, it was a bull trend already (green) heading into the end of the month. The Yen was getting strong. If you were holding all 7 JPY pairs, going south, on July 29th, you would have ended up that day with 70 pips. Then July 30th produces 184 pips. Then July 31 produces 128 pips. Then Aug first, end of day, produces 971 pips. That’s a lot.

You get the idea. This should shed some light on what happens during, and within, the life cycle of a trend. Well, this particular one anyway. Let me highlight the important numbers.

  • 1,981 consecutive pips accumulated
  • then one day of -256 pips of a correction
  • followed by 800 consecutive pips
  • followed by one day of -838 pips of a correction
  • from beginning to end totals +2496 pips

What I’m saying here is that if you had the 7 JPY pairs running continually (short, JPY strong) for the entire month of Aug, plus the last 3 days in July, that’s your result. A lot of pips. 2496 pips.

All I’m doing here is looking at a trend. It’s output, in pips. And how it transpires. This was the biggest JPY bull trend of 2019. Now. Let’s compare that to the latest JPY trend happening right now.

For some perspective, I backed it up to the beginning of Feb. So, what do we got? Well, technically speaking, the JPY bull trend started Feb 26th. But it got a running start since Feb 24th. In hindsight, that’s the day the buying of the Yen started, right? Cause the 24th produced 629 pips in favor of the JPY. The next day produced 171 pips JPY strong. And so forth. Ok. So. Let’s look at the metrics of this JPY bull trend so far.

  • 1751 consecutive pips, the first 3 days of the trend
  • followed by a -377 pips of a one day correction
  • followed by 551 pips one day of a continuation of the trend
  • followed by -349 pips of a one day correction
  • followed by 959 consecutive pips (the last 2 days)

This trend, so far, is producing 2,535 pips.
But the story is not over. But, so far, to compare this to last years strongest trend (above), I think, is interesting. Look up there, at both charts.

What was the top trend strength number, for last years one?

  • 441

Where are we at presently?

  • 441

I am not making this stuff up. What that number right there means is this.


All I’m doing is adding up them all up. The total is on the right.
Now. Visually speaking. This is what it looks like on the charts.


Each currency pair is matched with my table above. So like, the USD/JPY pair has 90 pips between the 5 and 9 ema lines. That’s all. And all I’m doing here is adding them all up. Including the CNY. That’s a different animal, though.

Anyway. That, right there, is how I come up with my trend indicator number. And right now, that number is 441. Which is shown on my line chart.

  • This is how I measure the JPY trend
  • This is how strong the trend is
  • This, right now, has matched last years highest number

Let me state the obvious. Every trend will be different. Between the strength, and the duration, no one trend will be the same. Just like every single snow flake that falls to the earth. Different.

But, according to the way I measure the trend, we have matched last years strongest run. And I can’t believe it actually has matched exactly.

Look.


I’m not lying. This was last years table. Monday Aug 5th was the top, of that trend.
You can see that I measure it all the same. Although the GBP was the weakest (120) against the JPY, then.

And look. I’m not going to put this out there (like a lot of analysts do) to insinuate that the market will do the same thing next. Like go down from here.
No way. Know why? Cause in my trading all I will do is follow this trend, to the end.

I think there’s a big difference between speculating and following. Man…I’ve thought about this, this week. I kind of think that mostly everyone who trades, speculates. As opposed to follows. And I think that just might be what separates the winners from the losers. In the long run.

I don’t know. This can be a very insightful discussion. For me, I would need much more thought on this subject. And it would come down to this very question.

Do you speculate or follow?

Is there a difference?

If there is, could there be anything else?

Does our trading boil down to this?

Is there any other reason behind HOW we trade?

Speculating.

  • I think it will go this way, therefore I do this.

Following.

  • The market dictates what I will do next. And I act accordingly.

Yeah, the more I think about this, there’s a difference. It comes down to answering the question of what makes us do what we do? It’s a psychological matter. In fact, that’s what trading is. Our decision making abilities.

Anyway.
Enough nonsense.

I’ve run out of time.
Got to go.

Mike

P.S. - For documentation purposes.

2020-03-07_0721

  • I started the month with a account balance of $19,188.00
  • +9.30 % first week of the month (unrealized balance now is $20,973.66)
  • The latest

Man Journal…I guess I didn’t get around to telling you about my take-profit action. Well, in short, do you see up there, on every pair the sell .19 lines (19,000 units)? That number comes from my account balance being $19,000. That’s one standard position size, on each. Well, I start out with 2 sizes on each, which was .38 (38,000 units) on each. But come end of day Thursday this week, I took profit. Why? Well, NFP was coming up next. And plus, I was in much profit already. So, I took .19 off of each pair. And this is the result. See. Now, I’m able to continually have a position in the market at all times. While having the opportunity to bank some profits.

  • +456 total pips @ 19,000 units on each

Now, when will I go back to another size on each?

  • After a major correction
  • At a change in trend

Alright.
I’m done.
Mike

1 Like

Good morning Journal.

It’s Sunday morning now, and I have some time.
Well, I did mention this to you yesterday. And now I want to talk about it. Cause I’m very perplexed about this.
I’m talking about my proof of concept, regarding my system.

Ok. So. Let’s begin from the beginning.
What is my system?

2020-03-08_0646

Point by point explanation.

  • This encapsulates the way I trade
  • A basket of trades
  • As opposed to the game of getting in, getting out
  • EOD is the time when you stop and count the progress
  • Running progress, in pips, from the years start
  • Which direction the trades are going, all the same
  • Day late means at EOD, if the trend has changed, then so do my trades
  • Results, of an outcome in pips accumulated

This explains my system. But will also explain the charts below.
See. I’ve been trading the JPY this way since the beginning of the year. Yeah, that’s nice, I know. But, I’ve tracked this system as if I traded each of the other currencies also.

So. How about some results of this trading system with the respective other currencies. This can simply be called complete currency trading results.

-GBP-


Alright. It’s simple. If you had the 7 GBP pairs running, according to my stated trend, then all along the way this is what the results would be, in pips. It’s the results over time. I just didn’t show you what the stated trend was.

Well, I started with this currency. Which is the worst of the 8. Know why? Well, it’s because the trend changes frequently. But also when it does, there are a lot of pips lost, due to the day late way. Let me show you a little of that.


I’ll just give you one instance. On Feb 13th. The trend changed from a bear market to a bull market. Well, see, you don’t know that until the end of the day. And that day produced 843 pips. See it there? Well, in a perfect world where you knew before the day began that the trend was gonna change (we don’t) then you would’ve been up +843 pips. So therefore, that’s a result of -843 pips. Then, at end of day, do you change directions. Hence, day late.

  • Changed trends 6 times so far this year.
  • YTD pip results = -3,510
  • Current trend = Bear market

Anyway. This system is easy peasy.
But, with the GBP, it’s not looking like a profitable way, right? Well, let’s move on to the others. Will there be a difference, between them all?

Next up, the CAD.

  • Changed trends 3 times so far
  • YTD pip results = +1014
  • Current trend = Bear market

Not bad at all. You can see that most of the time the running daily results were in the positive (above).

Next up, the AUD.

  • Changed trends 3 times
  • YTD pip results = +1254
  • Current trend = Bear market

Getting better. Most of Jan was in the negative territory. But on the 23rd trading day of the year, Jan 31st, the system hit a top, came back down, but really didn’t go into negative territory. So…lots of positive results since.

Next up, the USD.

  • Changed trends 2 times
  • YTD pip results = +1303
  • Current trend = Bear market

Again, the systems expectancy started to turn around beginning of Feb. After the 23 day. Well, I guess you can see that my system didn’t produce much during the month of Jan. Kinda across the board. But then things did turn around.

Next up, the EUR.

  • Changed trends 5 times
  • YTD pip results = +1456
  • Current trend = Bull market

That is a lot of changing of the trends, which adversely affects my system. It was only in the last 7 trading days which brought up the YTD total amount, a whole lot. So…is interesting.

Next up, the CHF.

  • Changed trends 2 times
  • YTD pip results = 2,177
  • Current trend = Bull market

Now we’re getting somewhere. If you would have traded the CHF as a complete currency, this year, just letting their 7 pairs run continually, there’s a whole lot of potential with my system. Many pips equates to positive expectations. But then you have the position sizing factor. That’s for another discussion.

The best for last. The top currency.
NZD.

  • Changed trends just one time (Jan 7th).
  • YTD pip results = 2,726
  • Current trend = Bear market

Well, just like most of the others, Jan was not so good of a month for my system. But things did take off heading into the end of the month Jan.

Mind you…we’re looking at the day late system results. This is easy to follow. Seriously. At the end of every day, whatever the trend turns out to be, that’s the direction your trades will be running in. And nine times out of ten your not gonna have to do anything. Just let them ride. See. For instance, the NZD. The only time you would have any action to take would have been on Jan 7th. At that end of day, you would have exited out of the long NZD positions, and then re entered going short. I’ll show you.


You can see that the only difference between those 2 systems was on Jan 7th, the perfect system produced 41 pips. But the day late system produced -41 pips. That’s nothing.

Anyway.
What am I looking at here anyway?
My system, simply is :

  • Following a trend
  • I change directions when my trend indicator changes direction
  • Over time, there’s a positive expectancy.

So far, as you can see, it’s being proven. Now. Over how long of time? Time will tell. What would we say if I ran these numbers for the month of January only? That this system doesn’t produce much results. Right? Well, for most of them anyway. Forget the GBP. I don’t know. Maybe they will sometime throughout the year, we’ll see.

Now. Where does my JPY stand, in comparison with those?
Did I pick the best currency to trade this system with? Or not?

Here’s the line up.
From worst to best.

  • GBP
  • JPY
  • CAD
  • AUD
  • USD
  • EUR
  • CHF
  • NZD

So yeah, I almost picked the worst one. Maybe that’ll explain much of my struggling, so far this year. Let’s look at it, in the same format as the others.

  • Changed trends 5 times
  • YTD pip results = 189
  • Current trend = Bull market

Uhhh…yeah Journal.
Now do you understand my struggles?
I have made some very good trading decisions this year. Cause if you remember, for the month of Jan I came out in the positive. My account ended +2.18%. And if you look up there, that was at the end of day 23rd trading day. -429 is the number (it’s hard to see I know). So, for that month I did better than the day late system. Now…for the month of Feb, I made some grave mistakes (which won’t happen again). And as you can see, making mistakes, along with a naturally producing negative expectancy, turns out not-so-good.

Ok. I’m about done here.
But, I got one more chart to show you.
How about this question…
What would it look like if I had combined every currency, and run this system?
Or more like, if I had 8 separate trading accounts (one for each complete currency), what would the total outcome be?

Stand back.
Here it comes.

You can forget about that top green line. That’s the perfect system.
The bottom line is the day late system.
Look at where the last day of Jan was (23rd). See. I’m telling you. There’s truth to the fact of the end of month flows. It surely escalates.
Where’s the last day of Feb? It’s the 43rd trading day of the year. So, going into Mar has been a very positive expectancy of my system. Aggregate.

Well, the bottom line number is 6,609 pips.
That’s the total amount of pips, from the beginning of the year, if you ran this system on every one of the 8 currencies. All totaled up. Day late system.

Well, my bottom line is this.

  • So far, I’m calling my proof of concept positive.
  • Positive, on a monthly basis.

I will continue to do what I am doing.
JPY is my currency to trade.
I will continue to keep track of the others.

Thanks for listening Journal.
Good things are happening.
Mike

1 Like

Mike, love your discussion here. Can you please help with the list of the books you read? I will love to read them too. Thank you man.

Good morning Journal.

It’s Sat. Mar 14th.

Well Journal, I do have to say, it is getting interesting around here. And I’m not particularly talking about trading wise either. I’m talking about life. Let me explain.

This Coronavirus. It has affected my life. Now. To begin with. Let’s get one thing straight. I do not have it. And I do not know anyone who has it. But. In the most simplest terms. I am out of a job for the next 2 weeks. As you know, Journal, I’m a school bus driver. And well, yesterday, it was just minutes before we were to pick up the high school kids (at days end), that the word came out from the schools website that there is not going to be any school for the next 2 weeks.

This was precisely at the time when Trump was in the middle of declaring a national emergency (live on tv). Also it was around the same time that our mayor, of PA, announced that every school in the state will be closing. Man…I’m telling you, there was much going on ever since about 2:30 pm yesterday. Friday the 13th, mind you.

You know Journal…in my lifetime, I honestly haven’t experienced something like this before. A pandemic. A disease spreading, contagion that is globally reaching. But look. I understand what’s going on at the present time is a lot of precaution. Sure. Because who doesn’t want to get it. Right? I mean, the good thing for us is that we were not the first country to experience it. China. Then South Korea. Japan. Then on over to Europe, particularly Italy. Geez.

Sure. It has had a very big affect, on a lot of people. Worldwide. But…is it real? All I want to do is put this in it’s proper perspective. Is this being blown out of proportion? Like. Have we (as a people) ever focused on the influenza before, like this? It seems like we haven’t. Because, annually speaking, there are many, many deaths that occur because of the common flu. It’s just what happens out there. When old people get sick, well, a lot of times it just doesn’t end well. You know what I mean? And now, the whole world will all of a sudden become experts on how many people die due to the flu. In particular, this strain of the flu.

I don’t know. I would like to know what’s important about this and what’s not important. What’s the nonsense, and what do we really need to understand. Know what I mean? All I know is…because of this…I’m not able to go to work. For the next 2 straight weeks. And they even say that it might even be longer. Cause they have to assess the situation, come then.

But that is what’s real. Having to stay home. And you want to know what else is real? Check this out. See. Me and Trish do our weekly shopping every Sat. But, due to what’s going on out there, we thought that we should get this done sooner, than later. And well, yep, we went out last night. After work.

Talk about a run on the shelves. It was bad. Look. It wasn’t a complete apocalyptic scene, but surely it was close. This was something you normally don’t see. Good luck trying to find some toilet paper. There’s simply none to be found. I’m so glad she picked some up a couple days ago, or else we’d be in trouble. But yeah, a lot of empty shelves. Both at Walmart, and Aldi’s.

See. I really don’t know if it’s normal for people to go shopping on Friday nights. Cause we never do. So I don’t know for sure. But it was crowded. I guess everybody else was thinking the very same thing that we were. Kind of like, tomorrow just might not come. Get what you can now. Whatever is left, that is.

As we were shopping, I kept calling it end of days. Cause that’s exactly what it looked like. I mean, it is hysteria. No doubt. So therefore, we can play that game too. You never know, maybe people are on to something. We are dealing with an unknown here. Maybe, just maybe, we will be holed up in our house for a long time. You never know.

This was the prevailing thinking, last night. No joke. But…is this all blown out of proportion?

Well, I do know one thing. If we would have waited to do our shopping today, we wouldn’t have gotten anything! Cause we surely contributed to the emptying of the shelves. I’ve taken the last of many different items.

Anyway. I’m done talking about this. It is kind of stupid. Look. There was a run on grocery items last night. Sure. But the shelves will get restocked. Life won’t collapse. Not now, anyway. I just got to think about what I’m gonna be doing for the next 16 days. Now that’s real. I will be filing an unemployment claim, today.

Well Journal, you know what the first thing comes to my mind, don’t ya? Sure. I’ll be working on my business. I’ll have to find something to do regarding that. Maybe I’ll run some more back testing on my system. Or some kind of project. I just don’t know yet. I got to think.

Hold on Journal.
Time for some more coffee.
Then, let’s talk market.

Alright Journal. I’m back.
But I’ve decided to cut this short.
I want to talk market, and trading stuff on a clean slate.

See ya shortly.
Mike

Journal.
Here we go.

What a week I had.
All I have to say is this.
There’s some really good advantages of having a strategy of perpetually being in the market. Being in the trend. And the trend continuing. Mind you, with no stops.

I just remembered. I took a picture of what the market open looked like. Look.


This is what trading a complete currency looks like. Daily time frames.

  • 7 JPY pairs
  • Dotted lines is my entry places
  • With the trend (5 ema yellow line, 9 ema green line)
  • What an opening weekend gap

But yeah, let me back this up a little.
I am not restricted to stop losses, or even take profit places. There is a method to my madness. As I have stated before. Time and time again. I am not playing that silly game of trying to guess when to get in, and when to get out.

Why?

Cause you never know what’s going to happen!!!

So why pretend and convince yourself that you can figure it all out.
I’ve learned, and realized that.
All I want to do is ride out the trend. That’s my strategy in a nutshell.

Look up there. You can see the trend, on all of my JPY pairs. It’s the 5 & 9 lines. When the yellow line (5 ema) is below the green line (9 ema), on the Yen pairs, that means it’s a JPY bull trend. And when did this start? Well, you can clearly see that it was some days ago. On each and every pair. I just got lucky that it’s continuing.

See. That’s the theory behind my strategy. By following what’s going on in the market, will prove to be profitable, over the long term.

But, to give you some kind of idea of what it looked like on my account balance. When the market closed, last Friday, it was showing around $1,100 in profit. Then at the open, it basically doubled. Take a look.

I started the month of Mar with an account balance being $19,118.00.

Needless to say, I’ve seen some awesome numbers on my account this past week. It all fluctuates of course. And remember, the good news is that I’m not being stopped out of the market. But, the bad news is that I’m not taking all of the profit either. This is a perpetual running thing.

I have incorporated some adding of position sizing this week. And I’ve taken some profit also. So, I’ll just try to show you a little bit of that, with the pics.


This is when I added another position size. You can see that it’s at the beginning of Wednesday (or EOD Tuesday). And my reason was because of that nice bump of a counter trend day Tuesday. You know what they say…Sell the rallies. That’s precisely what I did. It actually helped to see the daily candle starting out red, pretty much on every pair there, see it? I think it was like 6 o’clock that night.

Anyway. This is when I took that profit off the table.


That pic was moments right before I took off some profit. And what I did was take the profit from the original placements. It’s the .19 lots on each of the pairs. I was like…that was a lot of work into it, why not take that profit off the table? And so I did. It ended up being 1,969 total pips.

See. Here’s the proof.

So. Let’s see what the present situation looks like now.


You can see that on 4 of my pairs that I’m in the negative. Was a nice correction on Friday.
But, it’s ok. This should give me another chance to sell the rallies, right?
Well, here’s my account balance to date.


So, from the month start, I’m up 20.3%. That’s counting the unrealized (equity balance).

Ok. So. Now what? Are we gonna have a change in trend, moving forward?
I don’t know. And guess what…nobody else does either. Everybody can guess what they think is gonna happen. Great. Go right ahead. All I’m gonna be doing is following my trend indicator. In the long run, it’ll work out. I’ll show you what I’m watching.

  • It’s a JPY bull market

Uhh, that’s it. That’s the only real thing that’s important to me. I follow that.
But, some metrics.

  • +437 pips of strength
  • The JPY is trending against all 7 other currencies (7-0)
  • Monday’s EOD pip count was 1,665 pips.
  • Tuesday’s EOD pip count was -1416 pips.
  • Wednesday’s EOD pip count was 858 pips.
  • Thursday’s EOD pip count was 899 pips.
  • Friday’s EOD pip count was -1635 pips.
  • Aggregate sum total = +371 pips.

Here’s another look. This is the yearly cumulative running amount of pips for my system, for the Yen.


The last day of Feb was on the 43rd day of the year.
So you can see that this month is proving positive for my system. Which is bringing up the YTD running total to 560 pips, since the beginning of the year.
I’ve explained all of this last week. But, this is the day late system’s results.
Meaning, if you had all 7 JPY pairs running since the years start, following the trend at EOD, this is the outcome in pips, at each end of day.

And speaking of proof of concept, Journal, you would not believe how my system fared with the other currencies. Truly unbelievable. Let me show you that aggregate pic, like I did last week. But up to date now.


If you used my system on every one of the 8 currencies, this is EOD yearly running results.

  • +14,472 pips of proof that my system works

But what is this saying about the market? I’ll tell you.
Ever since March (starting on the 44th day) the market is trending way more than it’s counter trending.

Alright Journal.
I’m done with this nonsense.
See ya tomorrow.
Mike

Good morning Journal.

It’s Thursday Mar 19th.

Well Journal, I figured I should update you on things. Plus…I have the time to do it.
See. We (the whole world it seems), are stuck at home because of this coronavirus scare. And I know I’ve talked all about this previously, but as more of this unravels, the more interesting it’s getting. And we’re (I’m) not even a week into it! Needless to say, this is uncharted territory.

And there’s no end in sight.
Yet.

But, let’s see. What have I been up to?
Actually, a whole lot.

I realize that I have to make the most of this opportunity. Of being home. Of having time on my hands. And that’s exactly what I’ve been doing. I still wake up very early. I mean, I don’t set my alarm or anything. But since I’m a morning person it’s very easy for me to wake up at 3 something on my own. But, being honest about it, some days I’ll sleep in till 4 something. And the closer to 5, the more upset I get with myself. Cause look. There’s no excuse of not being productive. For me anyway. It’s just how I am.

And, I also won’t sacrifice not starting the day out without Him. Reading…Praying…Just spending time with Him. That is what’s most important to me. First things first. Then everything else falls into place.

Alright. Enough of that. I know.
But then…I’ll be getting to work. See. I knew I was gonna have this time coming, ever since this past weekend. So, I decided on a project. My project was gonna involve doing some back testing of my system. Journal. I’ve told you, and shown you, all of my proof of concept data. But, I’m doing that as this year is progressing. I’ve been very curious of what last year results would be. Hence the undertaking.

Hold on. Let me explain what I’m talking about proof of concept.
In my mind, when I say that, I’m thinking about my system’s results if I were to use it on every one of the other currencies. Cause, as you know, I’m trading it with the JPY. Only. I just would like to know what the results would be if I traded the “XXX” currency. And what the differences would be, between them all. Therefore, proof of concept, means how I trade. It’s my strategy. That’s all.

Man…before I forget. I had an idea of trying this strategy out on other things, other than currencies. Say, for instance, on a commodity. You know, in the futures market. Then, after that, I would venture into the bond market. But, the last thing I would try would be stocks. Man…I have such an attitude about the whole stock market thing.

Why???

I know why. Journal. I absolutely just hate being a follower.
The whole world seems to flock, follow, and love the stock markets. And deep down inside of me, I don’t want to be like everybody else. And also…the stock market is nothing but buying and wanting it to go in one direction, only. How’s that interesting? I don’t know. But it isn’t to me. I mean, think about it. Everybody is putting their money into a company. Supporting it. And over time, hopefully to reap it’s benefits. That, to me, is investing. Ok. Great. No problem.

It’s just not my cup of tea.
To me, trading involves much more.

Alright Journal. Sorry about that. Where was I?
Oh yeah. I just wonder what kind of results I would get if I used my method of trading, say, in the futures market. I mean, all we’re looking at here is trends. Right? The more something trends, the more effective my system will be. Man…I need to remember this thought. It’s kind of hard because currencies was my first love. And all I want to do is continue down this road.

Anyway. Speaking of currencies. Let’s get to it. What have I been up to lately? Well, the market is flying like crazy. And you wouldn’t believe my account. I want to talk about that. Plus, I do need to document how this month is turning out.

Journal. I’m gonna cut this short.
I want to come right back with the numbers, and charts.
See ya shortly.
Mike

1 Like

Journal.
Here we go.
Documentation time.

  • Account balance at year start = $30,000.
  • I started out the month (Mar) with an account balance of $19,118.
  • End of Feb, into Mar began with the last day of Feb not being in the market (mistake) and entering the market just before the close
  • With 2 position sizes on each trade (basket of 7 trades), 0.19 lot sizes
  • Mar 5th (Thur) - First time (ever) taking partial profits. Resulting in +456 pips. Reason being, this was the day before NFP Friday.
  • Mar 10th (Tues) - EOD added on another position size, 0.21 lot size. Reason being, big daily counter trend candle, “sell the rally”.
  • Have 2 sizes on each now. (0.19 lots, 0.21 lots).
  • Mar 11th (Wed)- EOD took profit. Took off the 0.19 lots. Resulting in +1,969 pips. Reason being, big pip resulting day.
  • Have one size on each now. (0.21 lots)
  • Mar 15th, market open, added another size on each (0.23 lots)
  • Have 2 sizes on each now (0.21, 0.23)
  • Mar 18th, took profit. Took off the 0.21 lots. Resulting in 2,125 pips. Reason being, much in profit.
  • Present time now - have only one size on each (0.23 lots).

I will put some pics to these. In chronological order.


This is my original 2 lot sizes on each, (0.19, 0.19). This was taken on Mar 5th, moments before I took profit, for the first time. And my account balance was showing this.

You can see what +456 pips will reap. It’s the difference between the balance and the equity. I’m gonna keep more track of the generated pips than the dollars. There’s so much financing involved, which comes with the territory. So, in regards to my strategy, it’s the pips that I’m most concerned with.

Let’s move on.
This is what my account balance looks like at the end of the first week of Mar.
2020-03-07_0721

  • +9.70 % - For this month. Unrealized, running.
  • -30.08% - YTD

So then, in the second week of the month, this is when I added on another size.


I need to tell you. Regarding the AUD, and the NZD. Those big wicks. I strongly thought that price will go back down there. If you remember, all that happened over that particular weekend and was part of that huge open gap. That’s a big reason why I didn’t hesitate to add on another size.
Remember…sell the rally notion? I guess it helped to see all the candles showing red quite soon into the day. I went with it. Well then, I couldn’t help but take profit after seeing the results of this end-of-day. Look.


Well, a couple of them looked good (EUR,GBP,CHF). Right?
And this is what my account balance looked like afterward.

Then, this is my account balance at the end of the second week of this month.

  • +9.68% - For this week. Unrealized, running.
  • +20.32% - For the month. Unrealized, running.
  • -23.32% - YTD

And now, I’m in the third week of the month.
This is when I added my second sizing, at the open of this week, by a couple hours.


So then, the only other thing that happened this week was my taking this profit, yesterday at EOD. Take a look.


This was moments before I took all the 0.21 lots off the table. This is what it looked like. All good. Except with the USD/JPY (top left). That’s definitely in the negative, on both open trades running. It’s ok though. I’m in good with others.
Here’s what my account looked like moments after taking profit.


At least my account is looking better. Right?
The unrealized balance is pretty darn close to what I started the year with. So, I’m happy about that.

This is Wednesday’s EOD pic. My last running one.

Back it up a little Journal. Remember me telling you about those huge wicks on the AUD, and the NZD? Well, yep, it did turn out that way, didn’t it. Especially on the AUD/JPY, and moreso.

Well, you should know, Journal, that my trades continually run. I am always in the market. All I do is follow.

But, as we speak, and what has been going on today (Thurs), I think we have some kind of turn going on. Therefore, I’m gonna be losing some pips, coming up. It’s ok. That’s the game. It’s been a great run.

Alright. I guess I’ll leave you with a live shot. The most present look will be right now. Here it is.

Mind you, this is not the end of day. It’s mid day. But, those wicks that extended down on the AUD, and the NZD, I feel are telling. We’ll probably start going up now. It’s ok.
The USD/JPY is heading it all up. Literally and figuratively.

Good thing I too profits off the table yesterday EOD!

Alright Journal.
See ya later.
Mike

Hey Mike, what are your criteria for the trade? On any chart, if 5EMA is below 9EMA, you buy and if 5EMA is above 9EMA, you sell?

I ask because I saw your charts and thought looks like you’re onto a winner, so I coded up a quick EA to back test it, but my results are nothing like as promising as yours (across all 28 major pairs).

1 Like

Good morning Journal.

Well, it’s the weekend. Mar 21st.
Actually, every single day around here seems like the weekend. So like, no difference today. I mean, look. I’m not all that upset about what’s going on. No one’s sick. In fact, I can’t even find anyone who I know that’s remotely sick. So, that’s good. And plus. Who doesn’t need time off to relax. This is all kind of like a mandatory relaxation time. That’s not a bad thing.

Sure. I know we all need our jobs. And I’d be lying if I said that I wasn’t worrying a bit. Of course. Especially after yesterday. Listen to this. So. I get a text on my phone (from the school district) telling me to go to the school’s website. There’s a very important message there, for me. I’m like, ok. So I go there. And there’s an alert. Can’t miss it. It says…

Wait. Back it up a little. The last word for us (our school bus company) was that we’re gonna be closed until the end of the month. Like 2 weeks. Until further notice. Ok. I mean. We all know that things will probably change. Cause, this is all uncharted territory, right? Well, I just got the next change.

My school district will be closed until May 1st. And that basically means I won’t be able to work until then. It’s like everything’s contingent to the school district. Cause it’s very, very big. And mostly all of our work, and in fact the community, revolves around them.

Man…I was sitting there. Starting to panic. Thinking. I mean, just thinking about everything. The whole big picture. Like. Do I need to start making some changes? For my employment? Cause, I just went through all of this last year, around the summer time. That was a very tough time for me. The whole getting back out into the work force thing. Changing careers, or whatever you want to call it. Cause I jumped out of the car business (of the last 21 years).

Yep. I started to panic. No lie. But then. It hits me. You know what? I really don’t need to be worried. Honestly. God is in control. Of my life.

Look. I can continue on, with this point. Believe me. But I’ll just shorten it all, by saying this. In life, there’s a purpose for everything that happens. And my only job, on this earth, is to follow His will for my life. It’s getting to know your creator. I mean, nothing else makes any more sense. To me, anyway.

But anyway. Things are gonna get interesting. And all I know is, if I’m to make some kind of move, then I will do so. If not, then I’ll just stay put. He’ll let me know. We’re gonna have to see what happens.

That’s nice.
I know.

But, other than that. Yeah. I’ve been busy. With my business.
In particular, I’ve been working on the back testing of my system. 2019’s results. It’s a daunting task. No doubt.

This morning I finished up the numbers for what happened this week. So let’s take a look at them. For documentation purposes.

This is my account balance for the third week of Mar.

  • +16.34% for the week
  • +39.98% for the month
  • -10.79% YTD

That’s the current unrealized running totals.
And I have to do it that way, cause I’m always in the market. There’s not a time when I will take profit and basically start over.

Well, adjusting my accounts at months end is another matter. I don’t want to get into that now. Cause, there’s a big difference between live accounts and demo accounts.

Wait. I’m not too sure about that YTD figure, up there. Cause I’ve drawn out money every months end. That’ll be twice (Jan, & Feb). Man…I got to think about this. Somehow I don’t think it’s as easy as taking the current balance and subtracting it from my original starting balance of 30k, then dividing it by 30k. Know what I mean?

Well then, I’ll have to go back and see what each month’s result was. Then just add them up. Hold on.

  • Jan result = +2.18%
  • Feb result = -20.01%
  • Mar result (so far) = +39.98%

Total = +22.15%
That’s how much I generated out of the market, so far this year. And since I followed my strategy, that’ll be how much my system produced this year, so far.

But, when you account for all of your expenses (paying myself, and my broker’s financing charges), it’s a different story. This reminds me of the difference in the numbers of my cash flow statement and my income statement. The latter takes into account my expenses. The former doesn’t.

That’s business for ya.
And I absolutely love it.

Ok. Yeah, that’s nice.
I’m happy with my system. I do feel it’s working.
Therefore, let’s look at those proof of concept numbers and prove it.

Boy…this month is unreal Journal. You have to see these figures.
This is the aggregate total.


The last day of Jan is the 23rd day. The last day of Feb is 43rd day. Those 2 lines are amounts of pips. This is the result if I were to trade my system with all 8 currencies. Hence, aggregate total. The green line (perfect system) is not possible (explained before). In fact, I don’t even look at that line, honestly. Now, the red line is very, very easy to follow (again, all explained previously).

Well, let’s start looking at the individual currencies. How about we start with the USD. If I ran my system with them, only, what will the results be? That’s running the 7 USD pairs, continually in the market, according to their stated trend.


That starts on Feb 1st. Every day, at days end, if you would add up the 7 USD pairs pips, those are the results. These are the running totals since the beginning of the year. (For instance, an easy one, how many pips were generated on the 32nd day? A minus 2 pips. Subtract that from the total on the 31st day. 198 - 2 = 196. Then the next day generated 23 pips. You add 23 to the total, equaling 219. And so forth. But…this is what it would look like if you had no stops, no take profits, and just let these 7 pairs run, continually, stopping at every days end and tallying the pips. In fact…yeah…that’s my system in a nutshell. Playing with extra position sizing for take profit reasons are other factors.

Ok. Enough explaining.
The USD boomed this past week. In fact. Let’s add them up. At this time last week, the running total was 302. That’s 302 pips since the years start. And the latest pip count is 3,253. Ok then. Let’s subtract. 3,253 minus 302 = 2,951 pips. That means that if you had the 7 USD pairs, running perpetually all week, that is the result. And of course they are in a bull market. So you would be long the USD. According to my trend, they turned bull on Mar 12th. Which was the Thurs prior. That’s important to know, right? For the direction.

Ok. Now. I’m done explaining. Let’s move on to the others.

Oh…one more thing. All these charts follow under the day late system. So…there’s absolutely no excuse why anyone couldn’t produce this. Honestly.

Here’s the EUR.


This week = +369 pips.
In a bull market.

The GBP.


This week = +1,357 pips.
In a bear market.

The CHF.


This week = +82 pips.
In a bull market.

The AUD.


This week = +1,670 pips.
In a bear market.

The NZD.


This week = +1,294 pips.
In a bear market.

The CAD.


This week = +9 pips.
They were in a bear market, up until Friday. Then it changed. Bull now. So then, due to this being a day late system, that accounts for Friday losing -518 pips. See how that works? You don’t know when the change in trend will come. And when it does, you’re gonna be set back.

I’ll show you what I’m looking at.


Three things there. The top is the stated trend, with the strength of it inside.
In the middle section is the perfect system (top row is the daily pip count, the bottom row is the running pip count since the years start).
The bottom section is the day late system (same as above).
So, you can see that in both of the lower sections, the daily pip counts will be the same. Cause there hasn’t been any change in trends. Except on this last day. The perfect system gets +518 pips. But the day late system gets a -518 pips. Right? Cause you didn’t know when the day started that the trend was gonna change. Well, if you look at the strengths, it shouldn’t be all that of a surprise. Look. On Mar 9th. That was the top of their bear market. All downhill from there. They progressively got stronger.

Follow me. On Mar 9th, CAD short (in a bear market), produced 2,051 pips. Then on the 10th resulted in -830 pips. Again, this is all CAD short. So that day was +830 pips if you were long the CAD. All of these results are contingent on what market they are in. Look over to the 13th. Their result was -1570 pips. That’s a big loss. On that day (it was a Friday) the CAD got strong. Basically, it was a counter trending day. I base the resulting pips off of what trend their in. If it’s with the trend, then positive results. If it’s a counter trended day, then it’ll be negative results.

Being in the trend = positive pips.
Negative pips = counter trended days.

And that’s the reason why I’m keeping track of the perfect system. Cause there are clues. Don’t get me wrong, we will always not know what’s gonna happen tomorrow. But, in hindsight, we can learn some kind of edge. And if used with some risk management, well, then there’s an opportunity for ya.

All I’m doing here is showing what following a trend can produce.
It’s the heart and soul of my strategy.

Alright Journal.
I’m done.
Again. Bottom line is.
My system is proving itself.
Well…this month anyway.

Mike

Good morning Journal.

Let’s see, what do we got?
Today is Sat. Mar 28th. We just completed the 4th week of the month. 2 more trading days to go in the month.

Still living the quarantined life. I mean…I’m ok. See, for me, this all reminds me of last year. That was the year, an entire year, that I was home and out of the work force. I was living the day trading life. I’m sure you remember Journal. Cause I was coming in here a whole lot. Remember the pictures I shot over to you of what my office looks like?

Well, at least I had the chance to experience my dream life. Having my own trading business. Believe me Journal, I am grateful for that time. It was what I’ve always wanted. Having my own business. Being the boss. Not having to answer to anyone. But…having all the responsibility of failure and success rest upon myself. Not having to rely upon anyone else. Having my decision making skills really mean something. And possibly produce something really great. Just being self supporting, sustaining, and independent.

I don’t know…who doesn’t want that? Right? I mean, that’s what having your own business is all about. Having all the freedom and possibility to make something of yourself. Totally out of your own control.
Being the master…instead of the slave.

All my life I’ve dreamt to experience this. And…for an entire year…it was mine. I am deeply grateful. I mean look. I’m even made this way. Do you think it bothered me not being around other people? No way. For an entire year, I was thankful that I didn’t have to physically talk to anyone. Each and every day that went by, I realized that. Which made me very happy. See. I’m not a social person. (I know I get that from my dad)

It’s just one side of me. See. We all have sides to us. I happen to think that because we come from 2 different people (a mom and a dad). My dad was a loner. Big time. He was a shy person. Not popular. Just not gifted with any kind of social attributes. Just like me. But, my mom on the other hand, was pretty social. I don’t know…she just liked people. Being around them. Talking to them. Relationships. Just like how women are, I guess.

That’s nice.
What’s my point anyway?

I was formulated, made, to have my own trading business. And I lived it. And everything that comes with the territory, was absolutely awesome!
Except one thing.

I wasn’t successful.

I couldn’t sustain it. Reality shows up and teaches us what’s what. See. Every business needs to generate a profit. And I couldn’t do it. At the time anyway. Sure. I learned a whole lot about myself. My business. And all the reasons why it didn’t work out. Mostly…I learned about truth. What my truth is. The truth about my business. The truth about who I am. And the whole purpose of life.

A lot of it comes down to timing. This is still who I am. I’m not living a lie or anything like that. I’m not deceiving myself. I believe I am a trader. I’ve always told you Journal that I was born to be a trader. That is truth. My truth. But…also…I was born a child of God. I belong to Him. Therefore, I needed to put all things into the proper perspective. First things come first. And the trader in me, my business, shouldn’t come first. He does. Now that was my mistake.

When I think about it, nothing makes more sense than to follow this logic.

God knows everything.
He knows me.
He knows trading.
He knows business.
He knows success.
God knows perfection.

Therefore, why don’t I follow his lead, in the way I should be doing things?
How should I trade?
Why should I trade?

Well, that’s what I’ve been doing lately, Journal.
Sorry about all that.
Every now and then I like to put all things into perspective. Which requires me to look back and see where I came from, and where am I going.

And my whole point is…I’m not bothered, at all, by being stuck at home. (I’ve told Trish time and time again that I wouldn’t mind it if I didn’t have to see another human being.)

I also know that He’s working on me.

But…I’ve been busy with the business.
Backtesting.
Journaling.

Therefore, how about I come back with some results.
I’ll show you what’s been happening, Journal.
Thanks for letting me type.
Mike

1 Like

Journal.
Let’s talk trading, market stuff.
Well, I’ll get the documentation out of the way first.

  • +5.59% for the week
  • +47.82% for the month
  • +29.99% for the year

My latest account balance.
2020-03-28_0828
Yeah man, those are some good numbers. I’m encouraged. And look. Believe me. I’m not bragging, by any means. See. I need this. Cause this week, I’ve been pretty discouraged. The reason why is because I’ve been back testing my system for last year. Man…last year was absolutely horrible for my system. Well, for the first 3 months anyway. That’s how far I’ve gotten, so far. And I’m really trying to continue on with it.

I realize that this year is some kind of year. In fact, I do believe this is unprecedented. The volatility is like never before. It’s all what we’ve been reading lately. Right? But what does that say about my system? Do I really have a good system? Or does anybody and everybody who has a trend following system feel like their genius’s lately. Know what I mean?

Look. It’s written, in just about every literature, including BabyPips school of pipsology, how certain strategies work well in certain market conditions. And how they will not work well in other market conditions. Ok. So. What are the conditions we are talking about. Well…the market is either trending or ranging. I can say that, or I can say this. The market is trending or it’s counter trending. It depends on what perspective you’re coming from. My perspective is more of the latter. Cause I believe the wording of what’s considered ranging is way too subjective. What I think ranging is, is not necessarily what the market might think ranging is. But…when you simplify and boil it all down to a trend (a positive), the only other possible thing you can have is the opposite, which is a counter trend (a negative). Right? Plus. You can always have degrees of trend. Long trend. Short trend. Quick trend. Drawn out trend. Constantly switching of the trends.

Anyway.
It really doesn’t matter. My point is.
What makes a good system?
Simply whether it works or not? Cause my system is working this year. But it didn’t last year. So far, anyway.

Believe me, Journal. I’ve been asking these questions all week. Here is what I have down in my Business Journal.

  • Over how much time constitutes proving that my system works?
  • How effective is my system in following the trend?
  • Trends have factors that make a difference - in how well or not my system works. What are these factors?

In fact, I’ve had to go back to the beginning. And ask the most important question.

WHAT IS MY SYSTEM?

  • Staying in the market
  • My account balance reflects positively or negatively
  • The goal (objective) is for a continual increase, over time

WHAT IS MY MAIN OBJECTIVE?

  • At the end of every month, withdraw what I need
  • Can’t run out (account balance)
  • Must increase (account balance)

I think that about sums it up.
Wouldn’t that be considered success?

In my mind, anything else would be entirely subjective. Like putting an amount on how much I should be generating. I’ve realized that a long time ago. And that’s the reason why I can’t trade in the most conventional method. Which is trying to find the best place to get in a trade, and when to get out. Being such the perfectionist I am, that’ll end up putting you in a mental institution. It’s a very hard thing to do. Therefore, my methodology is :

  • I trade a basket of trades
  • Perpetually running
  • With the trend
  • With no stops, whatsoever
  • Complete currency trading

So, when you think about it, what makes my system work or not will highly depend on how much it trends? Right? Because the more it continues in the trend, the more it should produce. Well, now we’re getting into the factors of the trend that makes a lot of difference ( which I mentioned above). Which are:

  • Net production - How much pips are generated at the end of the trend
  • Switch Slippage - On the day of the change in trend
  • Trend frequency of changes - How often the trends switch (between bull markets and bear markets)

That’s nice.
Let’s get to what happened this week. We had a switching of the trends.
The JPY switched from a bull market to a bear market. But, before that took place, I made a move at the open. I added on another position size, going with the trend. Which was JPY strong. Cause that was where they were at, at the time. I didn’t know we had a change in trends coming. So, look.

This is the pic just before I added another position size, at the open.


This was 2 hours into the market open. Look. Many red daily candles showing already (except the USD/JPY). So, since I only had one size on (.23 lots), I go with another one. Look.

There’s proof. Got 2 sizes on each now.
What’s the result?


Well then, there’s what Monday’s end-of-day looks like. Price action, across the board, is not going down anymore. It’s going up. But most of all, my trend indicator was showing me of the change in trend. Therefore, I switched. I had to take a loss.


The resulting loss was -817 pips.
You can see up there where the change in trends did take place.

  • USD/JPY
  • EUR/JPY
  • CHF/JPY

The 5ema is above the 9ema (yellow above green). But of course, my final trend indicator is the aggregate of all 7 of those pairs. And it was this end of day that told me to change. And that’s what I did. And now, going north (JPY bear market), with .25 lots. And at this time, I did forget to get in with 2 sizes on each (that’s the plan). So I had to immediately get in again with another .25 sizes on each. That’s why you see some double lines up there, cause there’s 2 .25 lot sizes on each pair.

So, let’s see what happens next.


Well, this was only one day later. I was very excited to see the trend continue. And I’m in the money alright. So I take profit. Cause I don’t know what’s gonna happen tomorrow. I just might lose it all, who knows. Plus. It’s not like I won’t have any position on. Cause, my plan dictates that I’m always running along with the trend.


This is what it all looked like when I took profit. So, one size on now. And running. Well, let’s see what the end of the week pic look like now.


I forgot to tell you Journal. I added on another size (0.28 lots), just before the weeks close. Sure. It could be a mistake. Just like what I did last weekend, at the open. But, in hindsight, the trend was old. And that’s what I feel is the difference this time. This new trend has just started. It’s a JPY bear trend now.

Alright Journal. I’m done babbling.
I guess I’ll see ya when the month ends (next week). Cause that’ll be when the first quarter officially ends. So I’ll have to put a summary to it.

That’s what I do best, Journal. Putting all things into it’s proper perspective.
Thanks for listening.
Mike