1 hour to go to RBNZ rate decision, price sitting around 2.3700.
Depending on the decision this could either drop below 2.3400 or burst through 2.4000
This pair is like my perfect woman, wild and unpredictable but always great to be around
Well, what a ride!
In the 5 minutes after the announcement price dropped 250 pips then pulled back half the drop.
And the decision? No surprises, .25 cut as expected
RBNZ cuts rate as expected to 3% and announces that further easing/cuts will be likely
later this year, due to softening inflation.
First reaction is for GBP/NZD to drop 250 pips in the first five-minute candle (10-10.05pm),
but then the candle retracted upward, leaving a massive (nearly 200-pip) tail…
10.05pm: a red five-minute candle pushes below 2.36, but without much conviction,
quickly retracting above it… Further comments seem to highlight softening inflation, again,
and that $NZD drop is ‘necessary’.
GBP/NZD is on a third five-minute RED candle… It dropped from just above 2.37
to now 2.3550, having visited 2.3450 in the first five-minute candle but retracted
swiftly upward…
Nothing more seems to be coming out in terms of data (my source:
Real Time Forex Trading News, Live Forex Rates @ DailyFX).
NZD/USD is the perfect inverse-correlation to GBP/NZD, having swished high
and leaving a massive tail in the first five minutes of the rate-cut announcement,
and now trying to push higher on its third five-minute candle but almost
immobilised…
NZD/JPY is behaving exactly like NZD/USD (and inversely to GBP/NZD)…
Thanks for the link, a lot more info than my broker issues
[B]10.15pm update (fifteen minutes after the RBNZ cut rates):[/B]
the 10.15-10.20pm (GMT+1) candle on the GBP/NZD is a red one, surprisingly…
How will the market interpret the news meeting expectations AND the forward
guidance highlighting the need for further rate cuts? Should this not be Kiwi-bearish?
Too early to tell… The ‘fade’ is usually twenty minutes or so after the news…
Let us see what happens at the 10.20-10.25pm candle…
Its so upside down. A kiwi rate cut and probably more to follow plus BoE talking about rate hikes, yet price drops?
You’ve got to love this pair
No further news issued… there will be no press conference (the next one will
be at the September meeting), so all we have now is price action to see how
the market digests the news…
The 10.20pm five-minute candle on the NZD/USD starts at 82.10 and is a red one;
the GBP/NZD one starts at just over 2.3550 and is a green one…
There seems to be a little hesitation for direction…
Now that candle is reversing (green turning to red in GBP/NZD and red turning to
green in NZD/USD and NZD/JPY)… but all contained within about a ten-pip
movement… Where are the sellers, and where are they buyers? Who will have
the stronger hand?
I could not agree more…
That is why we are both here, glued to the screen(s) - and many others will be too, I suspect!
I blame you, it was you that got me into this pair and now I’m hooked 
[B]There is an inexorable
slide down on GBP/NZD, in spite of what received wisdom would suggest,
given the bearish note struck by RBNZ tonight, with the 10.25-10.29 candle
pushing further down, now crossing (or attempting to cross) 2.35.
The pair started at 2.37 when the news was released, and the tail of that
opening candle touched 2.3475, a level which the current candle has retracted
from. Could this mean that buyers will come in at 2.35 any time now and
push higher, once the ‘fade’ has taken place? [/B]
Guilty as charged
Glad I’m not the only one surprised by this move.
Well, what a night that was for the Kiwi…
Here is how John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist
at DailyFX.com reviews the surprise Kiwi move following
last night’s RBNZ rate cut:
Strategy Video: Why Did the Kiwi Rally after the …: https://youtu.be/dmQFgZmsv1Q
[B]GOOD afternoon, traders…
I have made my own video on the RBNZ rate cut aftermath,
as follows:[/B]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X_XXf02SM9Y
[B]Enjoy!
Food for thought…[/B]
Great video, keep up the good work
Thank you; I am glad that someone is watching them!
Ps: one more article on the topic…
Very good work and research on the GBPNZD, as always. very diligent.
Pipmehappy, this pair seems to be stuck lately, have you any thoughts on them and where do you think they are heading next?