My new FreeFX video: Year End's Risk Trends

Thanks Bart…

25,000 Euros is a lot of money… I hope you will make it work for you better…

I trade as investment, not as an income…

25k is a heck of a lot, I wouldn’t put all that in one account personally. It only takes one Black Swan event and you could lose it all in seconds.
If I had that much to invest, I would spread it over 10 accounts with different brokers and trade different pairs or strategies on each

I know it is a lot, and I it’s almost everything I got. Why do you guys think I’m so fearful to lose it all? But I had this “new” strategy of opening 12 trades, each risking less than 2% of my account, at 12 a clock, reopen the losers (stop loss hit) at 17 a clock with the same rules, and then add 50% to the “big” winners at 19.30, sell everything between 21.30-22.00. But I don’t dare to put it live yet because of the fear now that all those trades go wrong… Imagine… So it is for that strategy that I needed that amount of margin. But now I’m not implementing it. I’ll first demo it more days… It gave good return guys, but there was 1 losing day when the system lost 4.5k. Other days it returns between 1 and 4k. I’ll just demo it for now…

Its not the trades that would worry me so much as the possibility of a Black Swan event wiping out everything

What do you mean with a Black Swan event then?
The SNCB does not speak after 12 o clock I think? Or do they?
Do you mean the flash crash in the emini’s some time ago?
Do you mean a bankruptcy of my broker? They are quoted on the London stock exchange and have to separate clients money from their money.

A Black Swan event is one that is wholly unexpected, unpredictable, and has catastrophic results.
One of the most recent pertaining to Forex was back in mid-January when the Swiss severed the link between the CHF and the Euro. This caused the Euro to plummet thousands of pips in a few seconds, so quickly that many brokers were unable to complete trades. Many traders lost a lot of money and some brokers went out of business.
Some brokers now say they will honour trader accounts that slip into negative equity, but until we get another Black Swan we won’t know if this is practical.

And here is more…

Black Swan Events And Investment

That event was what I meant with my second sentence eddieb. It has really scared me a lot. That is true. But as I said, I don’t think the SNCB speaks after 12 o’clock. Of course, you’ll say, other black swans will occur in the future than this one. True. I have a broker that offers guaranteed stop losses. I should think of using them because I normally have a time horizon that is long enough to pay the extra spread. Problem with those guaranteed stop losses is that, I asked, “currently don’t offer it for the EURCHF”. Lol? AND you often have to place the stops away for let’s say 200 pips. And that is mostly too much for my strategy (risk reward you know). I asked if a combined one was possible: a guaranteed stop for the black swans and a normal for normal days. “Oh no that is not possible”…

[QUOTE=“Bartowke;737558”]@eddieb, I will certainly read about your strategies. And secondly thank you for that link. It seems indeed a very interesting thread. @ Pipmehappy, actually I like your trading style. I only got 1 problem with it and that is that I’m not sure that you can live from those trades. Secondly, before you were in the 60 pips profit that you have got now, you were (more than?) 500 in red, which is probably a huge unrealized loss. I don’t think that I would be able to see that unrealized loss going up and up every day. I would think “aah, damn, bad decision of me, I close this before it get worse”. Then the hardest question you ask me is what kind of trading I do. I almost get tears in my eyes when I’m starting to write my answer. I actually after 7 years still do gambling and no trading. Worst of all is that now almost all my savings are in my trading account and I’m scared every day that I will wipe all my money away in just a few minutes. I can do that. I did it before with an account that went from 2k to 7k and then I drank too much in the evening because of all the stress trading gives me. I thought “I will make another 3k now with Japan at 2AM (tired as hell, doing exams of university at the same week), then I have 10k in a week”. And I just gambled. Lost. Increased. Lost. My account the next day? 7$. Then I told myself: now you are going to trade a system and only the system. Don’t do revenge trading. I had a good system, with es mini futures. I executed it on a demo for several weeks. It worked, no losing days. After a few weeks I check the charts and see that my system wouldn’t have performed well at all. And then I throw it away. I have another system which is not really ready yet with EURUSD. It is almost perfect, but not perfect. I find it so hard to live with something that is not perfect while I know that a perfect trading system does not exist, I’m already searching for it for 7 years now. I have great daily systems, but then I say “profits come too slow and too little”. I did a lot of reading yesterday and today on this forum about revenge trading and trading discipline and I hope that I can do it. The most important lesson is simple: don’t see a losing trade as a personal failure. It just happens. Don’t do revenge trading ever again you crazy dumbass. I funded my account just last week. I already gambled the first evening. I told myself I wouldn’t do it. But then I thought I’m very smart and just watch the chart and make some dollars. Started the week with a loss of 10% of my account in half an hour. And in two days I gambled it back and now I ended the week with a little profit of a little bit more than 2% of my initial deposit. And of course the feeling is mixed but it is not good that I got rewarded for taking risks which are just unacceptable and could cause me really my death. I think my account could have decreased with 50% or so if those two trading days went wrong. It is just crazy. Ok I think you are very bored by now. So the thing is: discipline. Only trade a plan. Always plan the trade. Don’t care about a loss. When I get that really destructing urge to gamble I need to turn on a computer game as fast as possible or shut down the computer and jump on my bike or so. I like trading. I’m already studying on it for 7 years (more than 40 hours a week). It’s really a passion (addiction) and I hope I can make a career of it. But honestly I think it will cause me death instead. Now you will give me the advice to stop trading and do something else. Well that ain’t really possible. I suffer from serious concentration problems and tiredness which makes it almost impossible for me to do a “normal” job like a lawyer or tax consultant all day. Now you probably think: what the heck, what kind of crazy dude is this. I would fully understand. And sorry for my bad English by the way. Wish you all the best, Bart[/QUOTE]

Dude…seriously. Head over to marketgeomtry dot com. $170 per month. Best education you can get.

Dude, thanks for the advice but my problem is discipline rather than having a good system. And I think the website you mention is more about systems and setups.

[QUOTE=“Bartowke;737717”]Dude, thanks for the advice but my problem is discipline rather than having a good system. And I think the website you mention is more about systems and setups.[/QUOTE]

You’re absolutely right.

Why do you recommend it then? Are you the owner of it? Or are you being sarcastic?

[QUOTE=“Bartowke;737722”]Why do you recommend it then? Are you the owner of it? Or are you being sarcastic?[/QUOTE]

No I don’t own it. I have been a student going on three years. I’m a break even trader at best, used to be a losing trader, inching toward profitable.

It’s more about mastering yourself. Trading is not hard. It’s typically the trader who makes it hard.

I only recommend it because you said things I felt about trading. I’m now much better at the things you mentioned. And still working on it. It’s not easy.

In that case I would like to thank you for your reply. I just think I will never be able to trade while looking at the prices go up and down. I’m too impulsive for that kind of trading. For that reason I started developing automated trading systems, without good programming skills… I now have 1 that could be working, but I first want to see it going a little bit farther in time. Or, I do it like the system I use at the moment: I open trades at a certain hour, I revise them in the afternoon and in the evening and close them before US markets close. The prices can move how they want, I don’t care, I just look at them for 5 minutes and close the chart. Now I have to get the balls to go away from the computer and don’t look at the running profits all the afternoon. For that reason I’m now using a demo to execute my system. I already applied it 1 day live and it was an average day, with an account gain of 5%. But on the demo, there was a day with a loss of 20%. Still evaluating and optimizing.

And I am very happy to hear that you became better in those things. They are really deadly for your account. Thanks for sharing also. I wish you all the best.

And it is indeed true, trading is very simple (if you keep it simple) but emotions are the worst enemy.

Have a good week

Thanks for this, Eddie - yes, this is an excellent thread.

Speaking of the Commitment of Traders report:

Commitments of Traders | OANDA fxTrade Europe

Oanda here explains how this works; they also have a free tool here

Forex COT | Commitments of Traders Report | COT FX | OANDA fxTrade Europe

with a drop-down menu to select the desired currency…

This is a useful tool to see how net non-commercial positioning

is showing in the COT report, but in a more user-friendly way.

Well, fellow Babypippers!

Given that risk trends have temporarily resuscitated their appetite for bullishness,

it is no wonder that equities are having a bumper month…

Yet, all Yen-crosses and some commodities (including Oil, but that is a different story)

are perilously perched atop a vast abyss, waiting to be filled by nice red candles :slight_smile:

With this, it seems to me that risk appetite is trying to seek yields where it can, but there

is not much yield to be found, therefore this may explain the sudden resurgence in NZD and AUD,

among other assets, as they offer a higher yield than USD: however, are we truly to believe that

all is well in the financial markets? Is the asset bubble not at all a systemic and endemic threat

to the entire post-2008 world, which (with all the stress tests and restructuring of banks) promised

to shield us from another disaster but may actually find itself unable to stem the inevitable?

Think this: the US public debt is at over $19T (Trillion)… (See U.S. National Debt Clock : Real Time ) … Now, you

do not have to be a Harvard economist to figure out what that means, or what it could mean, in

the not-too-distant future…

I feel like Michael Burry in ‘The Big Short’… I have been short the equities since August of 2015 and

yet they truly are taking their time: you can hear the groaning of the S&P500, the creaking of the DAX,

the cracking of the FTSE100, and the shrieking of the Nikkei225, yet speculators will continue to ‘buy vols’

and push them back up at every dip, like after those in Aug. 2015 and Dec. 2015…

I am holding tight, because gravity is a law of physics, and what is overpriced MUST eventually fall.

:slight_smile:

Great and very informative video. I got lot of information about how to trade Forex and Risk trends. i think these type of videos can help a lot to a novice in Forex. so very helpful and informative video.

Thank you, Cledid nice to get feedback!

How is your trading?

Hello peeps,

given that I have now joined TheFXSet and that I am posting analysis videos there, I have not had time to post my own videos. However, I may update the FreeFX channel and post something about my own trading, depending on time.