Hi @dpaterso
Thank you very much for your kind words about my thread so far and I definitely appreciate your method of approaching the markets. Even though we may not trade via similar systems I do hope we can share stocks that we are watching and see if our systems do have any confluence.
Again thank you for reading some of my content and I hope you are looking forward to the content moving forward.
Call me Dale!!! LOL!!!
I would like that (discussing individual stocks). Sure does sound like a plan to me if for no other reason than to compare notes as you say.
Regards,
Dale.
Sure Dale, I look forward to sharing what I am watching with you. One for me at the minute is UK premium drinks company Fevertree. Keep a look out for in-depth analysis next week.
Nice detailed breakdown Jack! Interested to see how you trade it moving forward
Well as luck would have it: my broker is ETX Capital. So I just checked and I do have Fevertree. Always helps to be able to look at the same charts does it not!!! LOL!!!
As a rule I’m always monitoring and trading the FAANG stocks. And Microsoft. But the main reason for this really is because at any given time you’ll probably always find me long or short just about every index known to man (it’s my shotgun approach which seems to serve me well!!! LOL!!!). Point is: I will always be at very least long or short the NASDAQ, S&P, and the Dow. So I watch those stocks simply because of their weightings as I’ve always been of the opinion that simply because of this the NASDAQ leads.
There’s my background and contribution for now.
Look forward to see how your analysis stacks up with what I would do given an appropriate scenario from my system and methodology.
Regards,
Dale.
P.S.
Fevertree added to a Watchlist. Very interesting chart.
Hey Jack.
Fevertree.
I’m looking forward to your analysis and insights this week. Not for me to base a trade on (will detail that in a minute) but really to compare notes. It’s always interesting for me to compare pure system based trades with analysis.
I will post a chart here sometime over the weekend i.e. unfortunately routine maintenance is being performed right now, today, at ETX so I’m unable to download the Fevertree chart at this time.
I have, however, been watching it. Huge gap down yesterday and then price climbed with a fever (no pun intended of course) for the rest of the day (didn’t quite close the gap). Obviously: I’m not telling you anything you don’t already know (I assume not anyway).
Now for me:
Although it could be argued that the price move down at the open yesterday could have formed a double bottom based on the previous low: I did not consider that previous low as the other part of a double bottom i.e. same thing happened there. The previous low was also formed by an opening gap. My orders are placed at the low of the low previous to that previous low (I hope that makes sense) (try saying that a few times quickly). Obviously easier to point out on a chart which, as I say, I shall post just as soon as I am able to. I will also, in fine detail, detail the actual trade.
Great. We’re back on line.
Fevertree Drinks Plc.
Now the question is: how does this all fit in with your analysis (if at all).
I know nothing about the company other than what I’ve seen on their website. My CRUDE logic tell me that because you’re going into Summer there: maybe consumption (and therefore sales) increases given the types of drinks we’re talking about here??? Other than that: I have not a clue as to what may move this stock OTHER than the fact that any traders looking at this chart may play a hand in giving it a bounce IF MY version of the double bottom eventually does form (and for all I know I may already have missed the trade).
Hi Dale,
Some great analysis there on Fevertree and over the weekend no less which is an admirable feat. I stay out of the markets until sunday night to refresh mindset and explore activities and plans to be executed as inspiration to get into the markets next week. I will be following this with my in depth analysis of Fevertree and my outlook from a technical and fundamental standpoint.
Hey Jack.
All of which (the parts I have emboldened) you’re going to share BEFORE the trades start I assume right??? LOL!!!
(I have a limit buy at 2126.14 for the record).
Well Fevertree’s gap has just been closed from last week. All things being equal and based purely on the fact that my core trading system has more short global markets: would be fitting that it thanks from here and executes my order.
Most certainly, I always ensure to post my analysis before my position to publish my outlook in foresight as opposed to hindsight. Essentially my own verified track record in the stock market.
Jack Sherwin – Aspiring Stock & Forex Market Analyst
I am working to build a published portfolio of stock and forex analysis with Samuel and Co Trading. I will be posting my analysis weekly, so keep your eyes peeled for my market outlook. I would like to open my analysis for discussion and feedback from the community.
Stock in question: AIM:FEVR (Fevertree Drinks PLC)
Founded in 2004, Fevertree drinks PLC are a UK-based premium mixer drink company that has been taking the market by storm in the last few years. We have seen a great uprising in the popularity of the Gin industry in the UK in recent years and according to The Wine and Spirit Trade Association (WTSA), Gin sales by volume increased by 28% in 2018 alone. What is the most popular serving of gin? it is of course tonic and it seems the market is liking one tonic brand in particular above the rest and in the Drinks International’s Annual Brand Report FEVR were voted the No1 best-selling and No1 trending tonic water for the 5th year running. So how are they performing now?
Source:TradingviewIn my opinion, this is one of the best technical charts I have had in my reports so far. As you can see, the price has proven to be very volatile since the beginning of the year with us seeing a price hike from 2,165p to yearly highs at 3,289p however since then we have seen a steep price decline down to the 2,400p level of its previous low. This level happens to coincide with the long term uptrend that is seen in blue which was drawn on the weekly chart. In the last few days, we have seen a strong daily pin bar close right on the 2,400p level and trendline followed by a day of consolidation. This presents a good opportunity at a fair price and I will be looking for confirmation to go long on this stock aiming to achieve a price target of 3,000p. This level has proven to be an area of resistance to previous rallies and we have seen two rebounds from here in recent times so without any significant good news for the company I will expect this level to hold strong in this case. My trade idea will be invalidated if the price reaches the yearly lows around 2,100p.
Fundamentals
On the 12th of June 2019, HSBC started their Fevertree rating at a buy with a price target of 3,400p, adding to the existing ratings from Numis, Deutsche Bank, RBC capital markets and several others. On the 17th of June, Numis reiterated their buy rating on this stock with a price target of 3,600p and most interestingly Morgan Stanley reiterated their overweight rating on the 13th with a target of 4,000p.
Source:IG.com
As you can see here the full range of ratings is coming through as an average buy rating however half of the ratings are strong buys showing some good potential in this stock value.
Looking into the historical debt of the company, their historical debt is in very good shape currently and has shown to have been for the past 4 years. Prior to this was the period where FEVR was not listed on the AIM market so obtaining data can be difficult so I am not focussing on that period. Since listing. FEVR has shown to grow cash levels and net worth year by year whilst holding a steady, low and manageable debt level.
Source:IG.comFevertree has seen growth across the board for the past 5 years and is not looking to be slowing down, as mentioned they are proving to be the UK’s favourite premium mixer and this is clearly expanding to other regions being stocked in 74 countries across the world. In 2018 Net Income grew by 35% from £45m to £68m, Total Equity grew by 40% from £130m to 183m and Cash from Operating activities grew by 34% from £34m to £45m. This is one of the greatest percentage increases across the board in recent years and it is not incapable of continuing this trend.
In conclusion, I think this stock is presenting us with a great opportunity for a long position at its current position. The technicals look good with its pin bar on the daily chart bouncing off of the long term trendline and 2,400p level. The fundamentals are performing well and they most definitely have a great market share with 9/10 of the worlds top rated bars stocking Fevertree. Thank you for taking the time to read my article, comments welcome.
References:
Fevertree – Investors - https://fever-tree.com/en_GB/investors
Fevertree – Investors – AGM report - https://fevertree.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/reports/7baeb5fe4ce45bcfdafa68c92f481f57.pdf
Fevertree – Wikipedia - Fever-Tree - Wikipedia
Disclaimer:
This article is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to purchase, or to subscribe for any investment. The owner, editor, writer and publisher and their associates are not responsible for errors or omissions. The author of this article is not a registered financial advisor. Readers should not view this material as offering investment related advice. Authors have taken information from what is perceived as reliable sources, but since the information source(s) are beyond our control, no representation or guarantee is made that it is complete or accurate. The reader precautions to ensure the accuracy of the information provided. Information collected and presented accepts information on the condition that errors or omissions shall not be made the basis for any claim, demand or cause for action. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Any statements non-factual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change. The information presented in this article is not a specific buy or sell recommendation and is presented solely for informational purposes only. Not to be taken as financial advice. Investors are advised to obtain the advice of a qualified financial and investment advisor before entering any financial transaction.
Hey Jack.
REAL nice work there. REAL nice.
My proposed trade with limit order buy @ 2127.40 and with a soft stop at 1669.06 stands.
From my technical standpoint and based on my core trading system: I’m waiting for pullbacks on the major Indices. All things being equal this should take Fevertree to my entry level but will violate your trend line of course.
Based on your post and analysis though: would feel even better about the trade i.e. not based purely on a technical or system trade but underpinned by your analysis and broker ratings.
Really nice work.
Regards,
Dale.
You know what:
Sorry folks. I’ve cancelled my order. It just occurred to me that this could be a dumb thing for me to do. This could turn into a long term trade and I may even end up carrying losses for a while Not worth it to me to be totally honest i.e. it’s just going to tie up margin that could be far better utilized on more liquid stocks and with higher volatility (such and the stocks that I actually do usually trade as a rule).
That is very fair Dale, got to stick to your strategy and stick to what you know.
Probably regret it!!! LOL!!!
Real problem I guess are the ESMA margin restrictions (although I don’t consider them a problem but rather a God send to be honest). Leverage is extremely low on Equities which is just fine. But it does limit you in a case like this.
