Good trade.
Can’t disagree with your approach:
1H E/U so far this Oct:
Looks good Manxx, have you taken some of those?
The only one I dont understand is the 3rd circle. Is that a long on a pullback after the break?
Yes, this is the core of my trading direction. But, as a day trader, I select my actual entries (and some exits) from a 15m chart. For example, with the last circle (yesterday) I sold and bought back on the first touch of the daily pivot for 10 pips and then resold when it bounced back to the ribbon with a 10 pip stop. If it would have then subsequently triggered the stop I would have lost nothing, but it didn’t it just carried on down all day for a nice stress-free intraday trade while I spent a lovely day in the sunshine raking the autumn leaves - that’s how I like it
The third circle is exactly what you say, a pullback. One of the “rules” of the ribbon method is to wait for a (approx) 50% pullback if the signal is given by a long candle, as in this case. Which is very similar to your own approach to entries on/after pullbacks.
I was also outside, sitting on the grass enjoying the warm sun before the mother of all clouds appeared accompanied by arctic winds… causing a hasty retreat back into the house. You have to make the most of the sun every opportunity you get here in England.
Something Im doing now which I see you do, is getting more info on market structure into my view rather than focusing on individual candles. I found that when analysing previous trades some of the entries and exits looked good but the context was not apparent because the chart was too zoomed into current action. Little things make such a big difference.
2 trades this week which I cut early. I was hoping for trend continuation however price entered range (which it does after a move). I exited the mexican because fed members are talking today and also I dont like being in trades longer than 2 days. Also today is FOMC minutes, and something to do with treasury 10 year yield data (not sure but it sounds like a market mover).
Mexican looked like it was going down to my next day level but alas… I got out before fed talk completely ****s the trade idea up.
Same with gold. moving sideways. If price gets stuck in a range, Im out.
Manxx do you enter on the open of the 3rd candle after the break? So your 1st candle was a big surge through the MA, 2nd candle pullback approx 50%, then do you go long on the open of that 3rd candle? I ask because there is a dotted resistance line slightly above your entry, so in that trade you would be trading into resistance. Do you you put greater importance on MA than S/R levels?
My stats so far:
Win rate - 51%
ROI +10%
Best performers: Gold, DAX, Nikkei, SPX500, GBPJPY
Worst performers: USDZAR,USDCAD,GBPUSD,AUDJPY (GBPUSD biggest loser)
Best trading time: US session
Good trades: 57% (followed my rules)
Bad trades: 42% (brain explosion trades)
My biggest weaknesses:
1.Stops too wide
2. Losing a trade after it was profitable
3. Not being consistent enough
4. Holding onto losers
My strengths:
My takeway from this is that out of all my trades I have done well. There were only a handful of trades that totally wiped out all my gains and these were due to big stops and holding onto losers for too long. Had I cut those trades early for acceptable losses I would have had a significantly different ROI. If I reduce bad trades (impatience, not following my rules etc…)by 30% I will increase my win rate to 66%. Thanks to my personal analysis I have been able to identify where my weaknesses are and I can put a stop to the bad habits. I believe that I am going to be one of the very few people that makes a success out of trading.
A very tough lesson that clicked with me is just how difficult it is to sit on my hands and not trade after I have missed a move. My impulsiveness caused many a bad trade but thanks to post analysis I looked at some of the entries and was like WTF? I also try not to look at the charts with a predictive mindset anymore. The key is to be constantly monitoring yourself for signs of poor decision making.
What do your stats indicate?
Reading your posts here, and especially the one just above, I believe that, too.
I agree that out of all your trades you’ve done well, and especially because you say “Had I cut those trades early for acceptable losses I would have had a significantly different ROI”, which sounds very well observed and judged.
Thank you so much Lexys
I havent posted my trades here in a while however I have made a small addition to my charts and perhaps my method will help someone that has a similar trading style to me.
I have added moving averages to help me be stricter with my trading decisions. They really eliminate a lot of processing that my mind does when observing price. They are not used as the trigger for trades but purely as an indication to confirm the direction of my intended trade. Ive seen good progress with this method and I feel very confident of it. It is so simple yet so effective. I am extremely strict with stops and targets now, I do not move stops once they are set, and I try and make sure that when I enter a trade I have a good stop placement.
For shorts:
Price must have just broken below the moving averages.
Price must be moving away from a level that I have identified.
I dont look for single candle setups anymore, I look at collective candle structure.
For longs:
Opposite of shorts.
Here is a trade I entered today with this method.