No trade today, though perhaps I could ride that short term uptrend in M5 chart.
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Yesterday’s trade. The first bearish bar before the steep drop was a valid long signal, but (luckily) I didn’t take it because the SL was more than 500 pips.
No trade yesterday. Price stuck between the EMA’s, waiting for news. Sice the higher TF in an uptrend, breakout strategy is better for finding entries when shorting. Signals from crossover systems often come late.
Update:
Stopped out at BEP when price touch HiLo the second time.
On a different note, I managed to scalp the move down (retracement? reversal?) because that’s where people usually take profits.
I was busy with work, so I missed these 2 signals (+250 pips and -125 pips). Price was crossing SMA 200, so using Kijun-sen for SL might be better than using HiLo.
I spent the last week to look into the contrarian system. This system will look to buy at the lower limit of a range, and sell at the upper limit.
There will be loses when price moves between ranges (i.e. from Range 1 to Range 2 (trending)), and I’m still looking for a way to filter it. For now, I’m using stochastic thread (a system developed in other forum by Spudfyre) to warn me of a big move.
Basically, whenever the threads overlap each other and look like a tangled net, a big move is imminent.
Update:
Price has moved to the next range, and I’ve put limit orders accordingly (ignore the open order, I’m also forward testing a breakout system). The R/R ratio for this contrarian system is 1:2.
Update:
Price reversed to the previous range and hit my SL. My buy limit order didn’t get filled, but my sell limit order did. Too bad, it missed my sell TP and reversed upward.
10 trades so far, winning rate at 50%.
Update:
11 trades, 54%.
Update:
After entering a new range, price usually will consolidate. It’s best to wait if price will settle in the new range or return to the previous one. A spike from a breakout can easily reach 700-1000 pips and will certainly hit SL.
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13 trades, 53% win rate. There was just no selling pressure at 2336.63, so my last sell order ended up in a loss. Price may hover at 2343.51 later since there will be news for USD.
Update:
14 trades, 50%. Didn’t see that coming. The selling pressure came much later and stopped at the previous TP. For now, I’m avoiding the news.
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No trade so far. Both dollar and gold were strengthening in value yesterday, so there was quite a wild consolidation and price went up only when dollar made correction.
(Gold chart overlaid over USDJPY chart)
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Another way to use the price range to project support and resistance levels is to plot it on the 200-day SMA.
My idea to trade those levels is as follow:
As long as there’s a break that closes inside the new range, followed by observable retracement, the principle holds. In the picture above, price seems to hit an invisible level and make a retracement when it begins to trade in the new range. So, there has to be a support level there.
More levels can be added by dividing the price range in half.
This idea is still raw and was born out of my restlessness from being unable to trade, so it needs further testing.
Really help, thank you
You’re welcome, Jomina. I’m glad it helped. However, please be advised that I’m still testing the strategies. If you have any question, don’t hesitate to ask.
Cheers.
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Price may trade in a new range, so I put my sell limit order at the next resistance. I leave my buy limit order open in case price goes down.
Update:
What a nice down move. Since I couldn’t watch the chart today, I closed the buy limit order when the price moved above 2378. After all, my bias was bullish. The Ichimoku system caught a floating 2500 pips which I may close soon before sleeping.
Still no trade for the countertrend system. The short-term uptrend died out before reaching my entry.
Update:
17 trades, 52%. That last trade was a loss, but I realized my mistake and opened a new position. Price had been extending to a different range that day, so I added more lines.
