Thanks! Honestly though I’m no savant in trading 
Before we look at today’s charts and possible outcomes I need to clarify something.
See the black zone that is marked by the purple circle? That’s actually a green zone that’s on top of the other much wider green zone. Placing one on top of the other apparently results in the top zone being black.
It is the “black” zone that is of interest to us. The wider green zone is a big TF zone that is not suited to trading on the 1min TF. We also see that price has been moving around inside the zone quite a bit and therefore we’re only interested in the “black” zone. (All the other zones are normal.)
http://i923.photobucket.com/albums/ad76/o990l6mh/bb8d9fdb.gif
On to the charts for today. Red lines mark 0800 CET to NY close
I’ve marked out the six possible trades today with numbers:
http://i923.photobucket.com/albums/ad76/o990l6mh/b2c2df94.gif
http://i923.photobucket.com/albums/ad76/o990l6mh/9aa625c9.gif
http://i923.photobucket.com/albums/ad76/o990l6mh/4104c8b5.gif
So, six potential trades today. Let’s go through them:
- Around 4R maximum profit
- Loser
- 5R at the best, could also be a BE depending on risk management (notice the retrace that retests the trigger bar)
- 7-10R at most depending on if TP is done at the next green zone or at the max profit
- Loser
- 2R at the max, probably BE or loser depending on risk management.
In conclusion, as with the other days, depending on the trader’s skill this could have been a very profitable day, or with some nerves and too quick profit taking, missing signals etc it could have been a losing day.
I’m trying to assess what the potential here is, not dupe anyone into believing that it’s the holy grail. It’s not. In time I hope to establish however if this approach is viable to someone like me. So far I’m cautiously enthusiastic.
Notice the zones on top of zones on this chart as well. I tried to make it clearer by changing color on the wide zone to dark gray.
http://i923.photobucket.com/albums/ad76/o990l6mh/e278fcf5.gif
110414 eurusd 1min zones.zip (1.29 KB)
In my ordinary trading I managed to get stopped out at BE on a long GBPJPY trade…
Totally beat tonight after beating my swimming record. Also had to deal with an oro-antral fistula at work. Last patient of the day of course, worked late by 40 minutes…
No energy for reviewing today’s chart. I’ll do that come weekend. Posting zones for tomorrow though so we get a full week.
Chart:
http://i923.photobucket.com/albums/ad76/o990l6mh/b5a1faee.gif
110415 eurusd 1min zones.zip (1.3 KB)
Bah! Bacillus downed me for the weekend. Even kept me home from work today which sucks, I hate missing work.
Here are Thursdays charts with the same zones that were placed well before Thursday:
http://i923.photobucket.com/albums/ad76/o990l6mh/1ec74c4b.gif
http://i923.photobucket.com/albums/ad76/o990l6mh/3626ee96.gif
http://i923.photobucket.com/albums/ad76/o990l6mh/4722b87c.gif
I’ve marked the possible entries by numbering them. Please note that the small zones inside the big grey supply zone are places where, for natural reasons, we’d be looking for shorts only.
Some of the bars may not look that big, but they must be viewed in relation to the ones before them since ATR changes during the day.
Setup:
- More than 20R
- Loser (-1R)
- 20R
- -1R
- 9R
- 5R
- 1-2R, probably loser (-1R)
- 1R, probably loser (-1R)
- More than 10R
- -1R
- -1R
- 10R
Now, before we get all excited about these figures, let’s realize these are crystal ball fantasy numbers that cannot be achieved in reality.
Let’s instead observe that a target of 3-4R seems reasonable. There’s one more observation to be made, trades that emanate from a bar that pierces right through a zone the first time seems to have a much lower success rate than so called retest setups. Ergo, we might consider only taking reversals and retests and standing aside on breakouts.
No 8 and 10 are very good example of what I call breakouts
Let’s figure out what the result would have been if we had gone for 3R in every trade and no moving to BE - either win or lose:
- 3R
- -1R
- 3R
- -1R
- 3R
- 3R
- -1R
- -1R
- 3R
- -1R
- -1R
- 3R
Which amounts to a total of: 12R
Fridays chart will have to wait until tomorrow. Unfortunately not feeling quite up to placing new zones either…
Okay, found some extra energy, tomorrow’s zones:
http://i923.photobucket.com/albums/ad76/o990l6mh/49a40bdf.gif
110419 eurusd 1min zones.zip (1.22 KB)
Still following with interest. I don’t like this very short time frame - yet your thinking process is very credible. Good work! Maybe it will grow on me. Besides, I can’t do any worse than I’m doing right now.
Have you caught up on Seiden’s February webinar yet? I just watched it. He exposes his 11 Odds Enhancers!! YES. 11. :eek:
I wrote that he had 6 - they have grown! Now I know why I had a couple of ‘extras’ & I couldn’t figure out the definitive 6.
If you haven’t watched it yet it is titled “Rule Based Market Timing”.
Hope you have success with this venture. If it is successful how do you envisage finding the time to trade it?
Hi, sorry for the delay in answering. Too much sunshine lately 
I did catch up on Seiden’s latest webinar. I had 8 odds enhancers before and now they’re 9 I guess. I do have to say that I only partially agree with his latest addition. Unless the wick is huge it can just as well be included into the zone and problem solved.
I’m going to keep “paper trading” it for a while and if results keep looking promising I’ll take some days off and test drive it. I may also use some of the summer vacation for live testing it.
About the 1min time frame I used to have the same view of it that I imagine you have - it’s unreliable and more noise than anything else. I may have to change my mind on that if this turns out to truly offer an edge.
On a related topic I’m considering switching to taking profit at 4R instead of at 3R. Almost all winners reach 5R or better so it seems to make sense.
Possible results for Friday April 15:
Trades are numbered as usual.
Charts:
http://i923.photobucket.com/albums/ad76/o990l6mh/2c701330.gif
http://i923.photobucket.com/albums/ad76/o990l6mh/8841a3b4.gif
http://i923.photobucket.com/albums/ad76/o990l6mh/dbf9dcd0.gif
Trade number:
- -1R
- 4R
- -1R
- -1R
- -1R
- -1R
- -1R
- 4R
- -1R
- -1R
- -1R
- -1R
- -1R
- -1R
- -1R
- 4R
- -1R
- 4R
Total of: +2R
Note that this is the first day where I used 4R take profits. If I had used 3R as before the day would have ended as a losing day by -2R instead.
Today we see how important a good risk/reward ratio is. Even though we catch 14 losers and only 4 winners, the day ends with a 2R profit.
Yet again we note that removing the “breakouts” would have improved the stats.
http://i923.photobucket.com/albums/ad76/o990l6mh/2f82e1ca.gif
110426 eurusd 1min zones.zip (1.32 KB)
Ok, short to do list…
I have yet to post the chart for April 19 and of course for today, April 26.
I have prepared the zones for tomorrow and I’ll post them if I have the energy.
Anyway, haven’t looked at April 19, but today seems like it would have been a very good day.
Zones for tomorrow:
http://i923.photobucket.com/albums/ad76/o990l6mh/eae04f2c.gif
110427 eurusd 1min zones.zip (1.32 KB)
Just a quick post to say I’m still alive… just going through some very interesting stuff job-wise which has kept me from focusing on trading for a while. I’m planning to soon be able to get back into it.
No, no danger of that at all. I’m busy with some other non forex stuff, it’s soon going to be settled and I’ll be able to focus on this again.
I have a few 1min charts that I have yet to mark up and see what the results might have been and I’m also trying to figure out what would be the absolutely simplest and least time demanding way to trade the 4H charts. Seiden’s approach is excellent but I need something even simpler that is more mechanical. I think i have it, but I have to spend more time looking at it before posting about it. It’s so basic anyway that nobody would be impressed 
So, I’m not gone although sneaking out of Abbottabad certainly wasn’t easy
That work thingy is still not done with… and next week I’ll be away, so still a while before I can focus properly.
In the meantime this is well worth reading: Of the 1%, by the 1%, for the 1% | Society | Vanity Fair
Well, he’s received the Nobel prize in economics, worked in Clinton’s administration, was chief economist for the World Bank and is now since several years professor at Columbia University.
It would be surprising if he hadn’t managed to put at least a small pile of money aside… enough to put him in the 1% club, who knows?
Incredible how some things take forever, but now the work thing is finally settled. Starting in a month or two I’ll be taking over as head of the clinic. Now that’s settled I’m hoping to be able to finally focus a bit more on my trading which has had to take the back seat for a while.
I’m too tired tonight to read back so not sure if I’ve already mentioned this, but I’m using an extremely simple approach now. I found that Seiden’s approach while clever and profitable was still hard to wrap around my time conditions. I actually use an indicator, gaaahhh!, but just the one and it’s one that makes sense as well. To me at least and that’s all that matters.
The indicator is used for a sole purpose - to decide the bias, not to enter any trades or manage them either.
I’m tired like crap tonight so I’ll probably not post in more detail now, but I’ll get around to it soon. Promise.
Actually I’m working on a short TF approach as well using the same indicator. I have an interesting idea of combining it with the fractal indicator but that’s still on the drawing board to be sure. I might post that as well and see if anyone has some clever input.
It seems I will never be able to stop trying to figure out a smart and simple and profitable approach to the short time frames. Why? Because of the potential should I ever succeed. Due to the higher frequency of trading account growth can be achieved much faster.
In the meantime I’ll focus on the 4H charts, them I at least know how to make money off of…
Glad to hear you are well & still around. Life has a way of getting very busy at times, and doesn’t like to be kept waiting. While you are still alive it looks like Tymen’s site is on life support. I expect someone will pull the plug shortly. Pity.
Does this mean that you are dropping the idea of trading 1 min TF? And are you still trading S&D on the 4 hour? If so, are you winning?
I’m getting better at picking the levels & entries but still strangle my trades at times. I managed to make 3.5 pips yesterday when price retested a lower level. I thought it was safe to move my stop. Too soon again! I should be 50+ & still in the trade. :mad:
Like you I am looking for a consistent method to use on a smaller TF, maybe 30 min. Somewhere in the dark recesses of my brain I think I have an idea waiting to come to fruition, but I just can’t see it yet. That is this week’s work - I will spend some spare time looking at 30 & 60 min charts & try to ‘see’ how to make good entries.
I look forward to hearing what your new concept is. I am using a 50 SMA & Bollingers on most of my charts. The MA is as you say - for trend. And I feel naked without BBs; it just helps me identify where price is & whether it is more likely to consolidate, reverse or continue.
I have also been experimenting with range bars. No conclusions yet, but have a look at the PSAR when they are placed on range bars. I may try & incorporate them in some fashion to help identify a good exit point from a short-term trade. Also something like an 8-10 period LWMA on close for an uptrend looks to follow price fairly well. But first I need to get INTO a WINNING trade before worrying too much about exits. :51:
Good trading.